WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Aganzir]

First of all, I won't be able to participate as much as I'd like today. Christmas celebration takes place mainly on Christmas Eve here, and there's a bunch of lovely relatives downstairs... And of course they need a hangwoman among them... He-he..

**

Another thing why the seer can be wrong: the twists. We don't know if there's a false seer, a mytho or something. And is the seer told if s/he dreams of a player with a twist?
I won't waste my time speculating what the twists tp spoke of might be, as it's really rather useless, but I thought this would be good for everyone to keep in mind.

As for irrelevant matters, I don't like how Legate tries to divert attention from finding the wolves in his very first post. It wouldn't be that bad, but his request not to discuss too much about the thing he mentioned makes my alarm ring. That would have made it quite easy for him to lead the discussion in the direction he wants and then back out quickly if someone starts suspecting him.

Has no one really considered the possibility that Boro was merely trying us with his vote? At least to me it seems quite possible.

At the moment I'm inclined to consider Farael, Rikae, morm, Noggie, Boro and Might innocent. Of the others I don't know, except for Legate and Shasta whom I suspect slightly.

**

I'm really sorry, I have to go now. I'll try to be online as much as I can, but it'll be me who ends up being hanged if I spend the whole evening here.

[mormegil]

Okay, I have only read through post 113 so far but I need to go to the woods to do a bit of wood cutting so I won't be back for a long while and I'm sure to miss some discussion. Will somebody please keep notes for me to catch up on?

Nogrod, I expect you to keep to you quite promise. That would cut the total post count down by half at least .

Boro's quick vote of Kath seems rather odd to me but early votes tend to anyway. He bears watching.

[Aganzir]

Something I realised while re-reading... Noggie and Mac's accusations against each other look way too convenient. Now that would be a very nice tactics for such bold players like them- suspect the fellow wolf quite vocally and even vote him on Day 1, then maybe drop the suspicions later...

Originally Posted by Noggie

If Mac starts posting his normally helpful stuff I'd be happy not to vote for him and rather vote for someone who doesn't contribute.

They both just took up suspecting each other so easily, as if it had been decided beforehand.

Shasta then. Suspecting Noggie, with quite forced-looking reasons. Noggie suspecting Shasta. It'd sound unlikely that three of the four wolves were accusing one another, but not impossible I think. Something worth trying if the wolves want to be sporty? Something worth trying just because people probably don't believe they would do it?

[Kath]

Let me explain, no that will take too long, so let me sum up...You accuse Nerwen, then defend it as being "confused." That's what I find supsicious, and no I tend not to second guess myself. Maybe you think that is wrong and I should go about it differently, but when I think too much it leads my mind in complete disarray and I start thinking of double-bluffs, triple-bluffs whatever...I've never been in a village with Nerwen before, but I don't find what caused the big deal.

Alrighty Boro, it looks like our problem is a difference in playing styles. I don't think yours is wrong at all, but mine is born from years of writing essays and I find it hard to reach a conclusion without arguing both sides of the argument! As to the 'big deal' with Nerwen, it is simply that her reaction to what Nogrod said seemed over the top and, to me, she explained it very oddly. I didn't defend it as being confused either, I suggested it was due to her relative newbieness which, due to her adeptness at this game, is sometimes forgotten.

Now that's gonna be it from me til the morning I think unless I come post after midnight mass. Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night.

[Rikae]

I don't know what to make of the whole Macalaure/Nogrod conflict. To me, neither of them seems particularly suspicious: Nogrod, though I disagree with him, seems to be a quieter version of his normal self, and Macalaure doesn't ring any alarms for me, because although his points against Nogrod aren't particularly strong, they have that half-intuitive quality his suspicions generally have. I trust an aggressive Mac more than a passive one.
Mormegil's reaction to Nerwen is odd, indeed: first he defends himself for throwing weak suspicions around, than attacks me for doing the same. It seems to me like a desperate move, although, on the other hand, I seem to recall Morm having a generally touchy sort of style. I'm interested in hearing the opinions of those who have played with him more often.
Shasta seems to have confused me with Nerwen, and to generally have a hurried and careless quality about him. Is this the franticness of a wolf who feels himself cornered, though, or the carelessness of an ordo with nothing to lose? Although it seems more like the former to me, I can't say I'm completely comfortable with lynching Shasta, as he seems to be presenting the usual profile of the misguided day-one lynch - too obvious. I've seen such bandwagons go awry too many times not to question the situation that seems to be arising around Shasta.
Boro, yes, I'm familiar with Nogrod's usual line of reasoning - however, in his reply to me he seemed to be expressing not so much a "spare the vocal for now" attitude as a "spare the elite/the good players" one, and in the process, suggesting we shouldn't even make note of any suspicious activities on their part at the time being. I certainly wasn't advocating lynching Legate at that point, as I would think Nogrod would have recognized, so his reply to me seemed unreasonable.
Now, Boro' s reasoning against Kath I simply do not understand. I'll admit, I'm not that familiar with Kath's style, but to me what she said seems perfectly reasonable. Mentioning all possibilities, especially at this early point in the game, is not "flip-flopping", it's a responsible way to post when one is uncertain.
Well, then - I can't really say for whom I'm likely to vote at this point. I would really like to see more from everyone, especially TM and Izzy. Now I'm off to make dinner and decorate the tree, so: Merry Christmas to you all!

EDIT: X'd with Kath

[The Saucepan Man]

Halellujah! My connection is back up, although still a bit dodgy and it may only be temporary. Don’t know why it sometimes does this, but it’s something to do with the ‘phone line I think.

Aaaanyway. I have had a chance to review the Day in more detail.

I am still slightly concerned about Nerwen for her seemingly cautious approach. She has made many apparently helpful comments, but said very little about whom she suspects, and such suspicions as she has expressed have been very mildly voiced.

As for Shasta, who also pinged my radar early on, I am now rather more concerned by how much suspicion there seems to be building against him. He is more vocal than normal, but he makes the point that this is a response to suggestions that he should be more active. Rather than ‘nervous’ or ‘forced’, as some have said, he coes across to me as rather happy to be involved. He has thrown out a few crackpot theories, but that’s quite often the way on Day 1 when there’s not much to go on. It doesn’t seem nearly enough to condemn him, yet he seems to be fast becoming the habitual Day 1 scapegoat. And I don‘t like it at all.

In any event, I have bigger fish to fry now. Two villagers in particular stand out to me as fairly suspicious, based upon events thus far.

Firstly, Nogrod. Mainly, it is his reaction to Mac’s original points against him. They seemed quite mildly expressed to me. Yet Nogrod’s reaction against them (especially in #113) look to br wholly over the top. It is pretty standard on Day 1 for people to throw out mild suspicions in the opening skirmishes, yet Nogrod reacts to Mac’s points like - well, like a cornered Wolf. He attempts to comprehensively rubbish them, while at the same time launching a virulent counter-attack against Mac. He also looks to be encouraging the Shasta band-waggon, which causes me some additional concern. I rather agree with Mac that our Noggie is up to no good.

My other main suspicion at this stage is mormegil. In #83, he said this:

Originally Posted by mormegil

Right now, Farael seems the most, in your face, vocal person which always makes me wonder, but to be fair it seems fairly standard for him and I do tend to be a bit suspicious of him but if I were to pick a suspect now it would be him.

Now, I rather agree with him that Farael’s ‘in your face’ approach is fairly standard for him, yet morm uses this to found a suspicion against him. How can this alone raise suspicion, when it’s his usual style?

I also find this quite strange:

Originally Posted by mormegil in #91

On the other hand, Rikae, in her two posts, seems rather overly eager and antsy to throw suspicion all over, much like a wolf would do.

Again, if I am not mistaken, this is Rikae’s standard approach. And morm is quite often the first to throw accusations around in the early stages to see what happens. I find it difficult to see why this should make her suspicious in his eyes.

So, I find morm’s cases against Farael and Rikae, both of whom appear to be acting pretty normally to me, to be rather weak and forced, and that worries me.

As for the others, I have some mild suspicion of Legate, mainly for his opening comment about the pre-game banter. As others have noted, this might well have been intended as a diversionary tactic, albeit tentatively expressed, and he backed off pretty quickly when it received a negative response. Since then, though, he has done nothing to worry me unduly. Boro, Eomer, Mac and Kath look pretty normal to me, so there’s nothing much to concern me there at present, and there is too little to go on with Isabelyka, Valier, Aganzir, the Might and Azaelia for me yet to form any strong impression.

In any event, in case I can’t get back on before the Day is out, I better vote now.

++Nogrod

Reasons stated above.

[Aganzir]

One vote for Kath, two for Nogrod.

Azaelia hasn't appeared yet.

Is there no modfire, or have I just managed to miss it being stated somewhere?

It's maybe a bit early to say this, as tp will deal a blow only after the second non-voting/non-contributing, but could these blows be of any help to figure out if a certain person is innocent or not? Just thinking aloud, as it's really no use speculating on that at the moment- as long as we don't know what those blows will be like. And not that I would recommend non-participating to anyone just that we'd find out if s/he's innocent.

Originally Posted by Espiem

I tend to find those who come across as cautious on Day 1 as suspicious, as I always think that is the best approach for a Wolf at the outset.

I disagree. There are as many different approaches as there are players. And that's definitely not the best approach if someone finds it suspicious.
Now tell me if you're always a cautious wolf at the beginning of a game? Tell me if you've been cautious this far? I must say I don't particularly like the way Spm sneaks his attitude in (like Noggie said about Mac) and at the same time directs suspicions away from his own behaviour. At the moment I don't consider him suspicious enough to receive my vote though, but I'll keep an eye on him.

Originally Posted by Kath

I'm not defending Mac (who was the subject of this discussion) but I do want to point out that it does happen.

Now this may be grasping at straws, but that "I'm not defending Mac" caught my eye. It just looks like she's trying to make sure that everybody realise she's not on the same side with Mac if one of them is lynched and revealed to be a wolf.

I'm off to sleep now- be back & vote before the deadline.

**

P.S. Thought I'd share with you that I just noticed my cousin looks exactly like the phantom.

edit: xed with Izzie

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Is there no modfire, or have I just managed to miss it being stated somewhere?

It's maybe a bit early to say this, as tp will deal a blow only after the second non-voting/non-contributing, but could these blows be of any help to figure out if a certain person is innocent or not? Just thinking aloud, as it's really no use speculating on that at the moment- as long as we don't know what those blows will be like. And not that I would recommend non-participating to anyone just that we'd find out if s/he's innocent.

Yes they would help us but not in the way you are thinking Agan. Phantom will not hesitate to quickly dispatch those who do not participate, guilty or innocent. Likely it would be an innocent (simply based on ratio) if Azalia were mod fired therefore we would be down an ordo. It is not a good idea to tempt the phantom in any way...*whispers* he's a megalomaniac with a short temper.

[the phantom]

You have four hours till Day 1 ends

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

He has thrown out a few crackpot theories, but that’s quite often the way on Day 1 when there’s not much to go on.

It is pretty standard on Day 1 for people to throw out mild suspicions in the opening skirmishes,

Okay, so Saucie, you are okay with crackpot theories and weak suspcions here, yet when it comes to this you feel a bit different.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Now, I rather agree with him that Farael’s ‘in your face’ approach is fairly standard for him, yet morm uses this to found a suspicion against him. How can this alone raise suspicion, when it’s his usual style?

I also find this quite strange:

Again, if I am not mistaken, this is Rikae’s standard approach. And morm is quite often the first to throw accusations around in the early stages to see what happens. I find it difficult to see why this should make her suspicious in his eyes.

So, I find morm’s cases against Farael and Rikae, both of whom appear to be acting pretty normally to me, to be rather weak and forced, and that worries me.

I threw out some weak suspcions because I was leaving shortly and didn't have much time and also, there wasn't much to go on and I have a tendancy, that is very well noted to suspect people like Farael and Rikae...just ask Lommy and Kath. If I remember correctly to SpM, you seem to usually suspect me for this type of behavior that I exhibit. I tend to not be overly logical on the first day or two because there isn't much of a point about it. I wonder why you suspect me for the same reasons you always suspect me and yet you question why I suspect others for the same reasons.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Something I realised while re-reading... Noggie and Mac's accusations against each other look way too convenient. Now that would be a very nice tactics for such bold players like them- suspect the fellow wolf quite vocally and even vote him on Day 1, then maybe drop the suspicions later...

They both just took up suspecting each other so easily, as if it had been decided beforehand.

Shasta then. Suspecting Noggie, with quite forced-looking reasons. Noggie suspecting Shasta. It'd sound unlikely that three of the four wolves were accusing one another, but not impossible I think. Something worth trying if the wolves want to be sporty? Something worth trying just because people probably don't believe they would do it?

Aganzir, I've already said that my suspicions on EggNogrod at the beginning were meant to be taken in jest.

As to how vocal I'm being, some of you said I should be more active... but now that I am being more active, what I'm seeing is "Hey, Shasta's being unusually active. How suspicious!" I just can't win.

Also, don't worry, those of you who haven't had me make you a suitably-Christmas name yet, I'm working on it. ^_^

Edit: X'ed with Aganzir.

[Farael]

*Bares teeth* (note, it says teeth, not fangs)

So SPM we meet at last... and to make things worse, you are being reasonable and have done nothing that I can use to accuse you of wolvishness

Fine, I'll admit the possibility that you MIGHT not be a wolf this time. Though I won't trust you until you get lynched and found ordo or we lynch the last wolf.

A few things I've noticed

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Now this may be grasping at straws, but that "I'm not defending Mac" caught my eye. It just looks like she's trying to make sure that everybody realise she's not on the same side with Mac if one of them is lynched and revealed to be a wolf.

Yep, sure looks like grasping at straws to me.

Boromir answered my theory quite comprehensively and I'm willing to admit that it was mostly made up to see his reaction. I'm still concerned about his vote and in spite of what he may say, unsettled at his "I see" comment. Maybe he DOES use it all the time, but it looks like a bad seer hint to me.

As to my other suspicion (Shasta) I still find him unsettling. I strongly disagree with the point of view (I think Rikae's) that "he's too easy a Day 1 lynch". I think that Day 1 are the days where we HAVE to take those easy kills if nothing better appears, as day 8, with the villager numbers greatly thinned is not a good time to "take a chance".

There seems to be a growing sense of discontent against Nogrod and I'm not sure about it. On one hand, I am unsettled about his (parapharsing someone else) "elitist" approach where he dismisses off-hand accusations against "useful" villagers on the basis that they could be an asset later on.

First of all, he probably falls into this "elite" group (at least according to himself) and thus it would be a wise move to ensure his own survival. Second, this village is full of experienced players, so pretty much anyone can be considered an "elite" player.

While I am sure that he did not mean that all experienced players are above and beyond suspicion on Day 1, the implications of this approach are ugly.

However, it should be noted that this IS his normal playing style, so while I strongly disagree on this perspective (see above for the reasons) I don't think this alone is enough to think him wolfish.

I'm still leaning more towards Shasta even if he is an "easy" kill than Nogrod. Boromir is still there as well, but he does not worry me as much for now.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Something I realised while re-reading... Noggie and Mac's accusations against each other look way too convenient. Now that would be a very nice tactics for such bold players like them- suspect the fellow wolf quite vocally and even vote him on Day 1, then maybe drop the suspicions later...

They both just took up suspecting each other so easily, as if it had been decided beforehand.

Aganzir, I've thought of that too. Their reactions do seem over the top. I'm not ready to vote for either of them yet, though, but I'm watching them.

On that note, what about the possibility that Boro and Kath are both wolves?

Then there's:

Shasta –Still looks wolfish, but is he too obvious?

The Saucepan Man –Is his defence of Shasta too prompt? Are his vague insinuations about people too sneaky? (I admit to bias on that one.) He's giving me a strange vibe, but I've never played with him before... I don't know.

Mormegil –I don't like his strange, self-contradictory accusations of Farael and Rikae... or the way, when I mildly drew attention to the Farael accusation, Morm blew right up.

At the moment I'm wavering between Morm and Shasta. I could be persuaded to vote Boro– or maybe even Kath (or Mac... or Nogrod...). We'll see.

I have to go now. I'll be back later to vote.

[Valier]

Ok sometimes I just hate computers, I was half way through my list and explanations and bang I hit something and I went back a page and lost everything.....Ugggg

Well since now my time is even more limited I will try and explain myself as best I can. I know my reasons may not always be that good, I can only try. I like to read and observe how people interact with each other and their reactions to different situations. So saying that, my list of suspects is made up of people who I just don't quite get. Something seems furry about them. For now I think that in some way these 6 stand out to me in some way that don't feel good.
My list goes from most suspicious to least.

Nerwen
Shasta
Mormegil
Macalaure
Isabellkya
Kath

Other than that there are a few I think, for now to be Ordo's, such as Legate, Aganzir and Farael. But that could change quickly I am sure. everyone else I am not quite sure of yet, I will be back in a few hours at least to get a vote in.

[Kath]

Back quickly as I've discovered I won't have a chance to vote before the deadline tomorrow. So:

++NERWEN

She was my top suspect as of my last post for her jumpiness and her confused explanation of her early theories.

Really goodnight this time, and merry christmas again!

[Nogrod]

Funny to see how things evolve... Just look closely if you have time and follow the thing...

Originally Posted by Mac

I find it somewhat strange that you discourage considering him (=Legate) too strongly this early on. On this day, we all will probably have to vote because of weak reasons in the end, simply due to the nature of Day 1, but if the strongest of those weak reasons point towards a 'stronger' player, I'm all for lynching that one.

Interesting, I'm agreeing what Mac says here is his stance: it's absolutely the same principle I have...

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm familiar with Nogrod's usual line of reasoning - however, in his reply to me he seemed to be expressing not so much a "spare the vocal for now" attitude as a "spare the elite/the good players" one, and in the process, suggesting we shouldn't even make note of any suspicious activities on their part at the time being.

Now please, where did this elaboration come from? Not from anything I said. So from where?

Originally Posted by Farael

I am unsettled about his (parapharsing someone else) "elitist" approach where he dismisses off-hand accusations against "useful" villagers on the basis that they could be an asset later on.

Is this from something I wrote or something you read from someone else or which you crafted with your mates?


So I'd be glad to hear where I did say that I'm willing to leave all "elite" players - whoever they might be and with what grounds they could be chosen in this kind of village - without scrutiny and just frantically run for the quiet/unexperienced... whatever you wish to claim? Show me that post please. For that's the most stupid guideline to play I've ever heard!

I quess I've said this a thousand times but I seem to need to say it once again.

If we have nothing but slight hunches we should vote for those who try to hide and stay away from the fray during the first Day(s) (as later they will become real timebombs who can devastate the whole village), but if we have something better let's go for anyone whom we actually think is guilty. I didn't say we shouldn't consider Legate or any other. I said that with that "evidence" or cause to "raise eyebrows" I wouldn't go on lynching him (and that was pretty early in the game if you remember).

Now my main suspect was Mac toDay. If there is anything like elite - your word guys, not mine - he surely belongs to it. And I do still think he could be guilty of wolvery, and I think it would be good for the village to see him dead. So how can you say that I'm not considering "stronger" players while I'm at Mac's hairy tail?

But looking at this word-twisting I've cited up there I think I might have other suspects as well.

There were some other points made I thought should interest us all. I'll come back to them in a moment.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

One evil tactic, which I am very familiar with, is to pick out a 'victim' of quiet and unreadable participation and raise suspicion on them. This works particularly well when no-one else has yet scandalised said victim. It makes the evil-doer appear not only original, but inventive in his/her spying methods.

And that's why I'm mighty suspicious of those who are sticking to their guns this early. It's narrow-minded, and unnecessarily so. Sure, we have to vote, but there's nothing wrong with being a slight bit apologetic.

I have no certainties yet, and I admit this; but nobody should feel bad about seeing possible wolves in all corners of this village. Rather, it is to be commended. Blindly following the same path is either foolish or a dastardly plot.

[Valier]

just popping in quick, I see there is loads to read..... Let's see if I can catch up and at least come up with some sort of a suspect list. I shall be fairly busy tonight but I will get a list up and give it some thought before I vote.

[mormegil]

Here is my analysis of Eomer. It might be a bit rushed as I'm on limited time and he has a fair amount of posts but we shall see.

Post 112 is an in character post not much content overall.

Post 115 he brings up some moderate suspicion of Nerwen.

Post 134 gives some advice that regarding plots some wolves use against quiet victims and get the bandwagon rolling. He doesn't think it wise to 'stick to your guns' this early.

Post 180 states he is not happy about Nogrod getting lynched and thinks it should be Nerwen and votes Nerwen.

Post 215 he explains his vote from the day before. It seems like a fairly reasonable explanation but I could see it as a fairly prepared from the night before explanation. He tries to convince us that his vote makes him look more innocent and I can see it both ways.

Post 217 He points out some things Shasta said in regards to Nogrod intimating that the wolves killed him because they thought him to be the seer. Not a lot to make of this as knowing Nogrod was a wolf makes it easy to pick out seer hints from the day before and assume that is why he was killed. Nothing too bad here.

Post 218 Comes out and states what he intimated in the previous post and believes that, if it wasn't for seer hints, he can't figure out why they killed him.

Post 236 Here are some interesting quotes. Look back on this post, he is either brilliant at spotting wolves or is one himself because the only three he really suspects are three known wolves. My guess is that the remaining wolves saw that only they were suspected and seer or not they should be done with him at that point and went after him at night but he was not the seer but rather an intelligent, if cursed, villager and became one of them.

Macalaure: The Nogrod thing bothers me, and if Mac is innocent I along with many others will feel embarrassed at suspecting the man who did more than anything to bring the foul wolf down; but... he's creepy, that jailer.

Nerwen: Still unsure. SPM made good point about wolf-Nerwen probably keeping Shasta alive. She seems a bit wrong to me, but I'm leaning towards thinking she's innocent.

Rikae: Exactly like Mac -- seems creepy to me. Not sure why but I never trust her.

Post 256 not a lot in there really. Plus I"m getting shorter on time

Post 264 votes Nerwen again, who was a wolf.

Post 293 is rather interesting in light of my new theory and it fits with Eomer's typical playing style. He is the one that points out we may have a new wolf on our hands and seems to piece the Valier thing together. A fairly clever thing to do for an innocent or a wolf but very bold if you were the cursed turned the night before because who would suspect that person of bringing it up? He says something about a little bird giving him an idea???

Post 314 states he doesn't understand what Boro means when he suddenly switched on considering me innocent because Valier was the hunter and he could talk to her and the hunter only would kill a wolf. Now this post is fine because Boro hadn't explained himself and I was confused too.

Post 321 Now Farael is on his list as well as the Might. Mac has dropped off but Rikae stayed. You obviously don't want to drop your suspicion all together of your fellow wolves but he is adding others and dropped one of the two wolves.

Post 347 he somewhat defends Mac by stating he doesn't understand why all this uncertainty revolves around him.

I really am out of time now but I remember it was around this day that Eomer began sticking out to me and I noticed some things that seem odd to me. Of course, my theory is that he was turned on the second night and we know that he wasn't protected. It seems to fit that the wolves, obviously, are after the seer first and foremost and with labelling the 3 remaining wolves as suspicious it would have screamed SEER to them. It is probable that they attacked him based upon that.

I'm fairly confident that either The Might or Eomer is the remaining wolf

[mormegil]

Here is the best effort I can give on Aganzir

Post 120 is her first post and talks about the seer and other possible roles that would be twisted. She begins to suspect Legate.

Post 126 it's interesting here because she points out the Nogrod/Mac thing and says that two bold wolves could pull this off and that they are possibly this bold. I'm not sure how this makes her look. If I assume that the cursed has been killed then this is very questionable if I assume, as I am assuming, that the cursed is the remaining wolf then this means nothing other than she spotted this wolf on wolf attack early on.

Post 131 she talks about a couple of trivial such as Zali and first day behavior but brings up Kath and oints out something about Kath saying 'She's not defending Mac' which stuck out to her and found it odd.

Post 159 has a post count and says of the remaining two she prefers Nogrod or Shasta

Post 162 she votes Nogrod and doesn't understand why people are suspicous of Nerwen. Notably she states that she is willing and ready to switch her vote to Shatsa.

Post 173 states who hasn't voted yet. Threatens Shasta to vote for him if he doesn't change his vote to Nogrod.

Post 216 She starts off by rejoicings that she has her first ever vote (odd) then she explains her vote and suggests that the wolves thought that Shasta was the seer and gave some explanation as to why this is the case.

Post 229 she talks a lot about the Mac/Nogrod thing again. If she is a wolf from the start then I see this as somebody who is trying to ride that wave to prove her innocence.

Post 248 states that she thinks Mac and Legate are guilty. Goes on to almost gloat over her the fact that she won't be lynched but Mac might be.

Post 253 she questions Isabell on her suspicions because Agan was on Isabell's suspect list.

Post 260 tells Isabell that she should look back to ost 216 to see her explanation for her reason for voting Nogrod.

Post 306 she is rather defensive and seems to get aggresive anytime somebody suspects her. She is also aggressive against Mac.

Up to this point she seems very aggressive and one tracked but innocent enough to me. I can see why she was gathering some suspicion at this point though. Being that Mac is guilty, yet it was unknown at this time her aggresiveness could be seen as rather odd but with the hindsight she looks quite good.

Post 310 she responds to Nerwen who is questioning her suspicions of Mac because he voted Nogrod. Realizes that she is on one track and that this is not a good thing.

Post 327 she gives her suspicions and thoughts of who is innocent. Most relevant are that she thinks Mac and Legate guilty, Nerwen and Rikae innocent

Post 329 goes after Mac again and votes for him.

Post 339 responds to Mac again. She seems avid to answer anything Mac says. She really is a laser beam on Mac.

Post 349 begs for somebody to switch their votes so she is saved and if she dies to please look at Legate and Mac closely.

Post 352 she retracts her vote and revotes for Mac. Proclaims her innocence.

This marks the end of day 3 and she is looking fairly innocent at this point and is going after Mac rather avidly, and that to me seems like somebody the wolves would think the seer. That fact alone makes me suspect her at this point. She never, in my opinion, made a great arguement about Mac but continued her single-minded pursuit of him. My guess is that the remaining wolves, Rikae and Mac thought her to be the seer and decided to kill her. Obviously she wasn't the seer which lends creedence to my theory. I hope to have time to review the remaining days but it is getting late. I will begin to get through what I can.

Post 411 she is the one that brings up the cursed being wolverised which could be perceived as either way of being a turned wolf making sure to point it out so as to help 'prove' her innocent or as a helpful innocent.

Post 413 tries to make an arguement that Rikae or Nerwen was likely the cursed turned wolf it seems to me to scream "it's not me!'

Post 421 is a post I don't fully understand as it is a bit of contextual post and I don't have the time to go back and review the whole posts she is talking about despite her quoting it.

Post 427 she decides that Rikae is a wolf. I think that a wolf Agan would be willing to go after her fellows but doesn't really go after either with the same gusto that she did the day before.

Post 429 votes Mac but again never established a viable arguement. Seems to have backed down on her attack of Mac. Agan seems to be the type that would have gloated over being shown that Mac was a wolf, yet she didn't do anything like that. She really did calm down her suspicion of Mac.

Post 457 she begins her suspicion of Isabell and renews her Legate suspicion.

Post 462 and 463 she brings up her attack on Legate. I only skimmed this due to time.

Post 480 she responds to my question about why she posted her suspicions of Legate so quickly. Stated that she had to do so quickly because she may not be back later, which I understand (this is 5 hours from the last post). It should be mentioned though I'm not sure it will help us but Rikae did vote for her on this day.

Post 509 states that she still thinks we should suspect and lynch Legate as he could be an evil twist. It's so obviously guilty looking that it makes one look innocent, yet she votes for Isabell. Agan is experienced enough to know that this overtly guilty looking behavior can work to help show you innocent because the though would be that no wolf would be so overt.

Post 517 switches her vote from Isabell to The Might. States that she is a stubborn innocent. She is still insistent upon Legate being a cobbler. I can understand this honestly as I think he could have been one too but I don't understand why she was so adamant about bringing him up continually.

Post 537 she says she's not surprised that Legate wasn't killed because a wolf would want to keep a possible cobbler. States she is still suspicious of Isabell.

Post 539 she has a long post, which I only skimmed, about her suspicions of Isabell. Thinks her mainly sensible but vascilates that she is a wolf and could be either and original or convert.

Post 544 states that she is likely going to vote for Isabell today.

Post 548 she goes over a little bit more about Isabell and votes for her.

Phew...I'm certain that I won't have time to get through Saucies posts...this took way too long. Around 2 hours. Anyway it seems that she does change her tone a bit on day 4. The fact that the wolves would have wanted to kill her on night 3 makes sense because she was so adamant about Mac. Her behavior did change and of the three she seems most suspcious. She was fortunate because she was moderately suspected before she was wolverised but the Mac and Rikae revelation from Farael she was able to slip under the radar and has been successful in hanging out on the fringes. Being helpful enough but not overly suspicious. I feel she is the final wolf. I will wait and see if I can look at Kath more closely but for now I need some sleep...5:30AM comes early.

[Aganzir]

Kath: unknown but innocent-looking.
morm: probably innocent at least until Day 2, after that the cursed was turned, innocent-looking anyway.
Saucie: innocent at least at the beginning, after that the cursed was turned, innocent-looking anyway.

I'm beginning to wonder if there are any wolves left. I know I am not a wolf and all of you just feel so darn innocent.

There's something from yesterday I want to answer despite the fact that the person who stated it is dead.

Originally Posted by Isabell

Quite interesting that yesterDay you were pretty trigger happy to see me lynched, yet today you actually deemed it it neccesary to 'analyze' my posts before you made your vote.

The Day before yesterDay I was abroad, sitting in a net cafe with just enough time to skim the thread and post.
I don't do an analysis as a reason for a vote I have already decided to cast- I want to know if I think someone is guilty even after I've concentrated on them properly.

Mormie's project then... Let's see if I can shed some light on it.

Post 216 She starts off by rejoicings that she has her first ever vote (odd)

I was not rejoicing I got my first vote, I was rather gloating over not being voted ever earlier (despite being a wolf twice, as Mac kindy pointed out). So not odd but conceited.

Post 306 she is rather defensive and seems to get aggresive anytime somebody suspects her.

As far as I recall I have always been aggressive when suspected, whether I'm a wolf or not.

Post 427 she decides that Rikae is a wolf. I think that a wolf Agan would be willing to go after her fellows but doesn't really go after either with the same gusto that she did the day before.

Post 429 votes Mac but again never established a viable arguement. Seems to have backed down on her attack of Mac. Agan seems to be the type that would have gloated over being shown that Mac was a wolf, yet she didn't do anything like that. She really did calm down her suspicion of Mac.

Tell me why you think it would have been necessary to keep coming up with points against someone the seer has already revealed a wolf.

Stated that she had to do so quickly because she may not be back later, which I understand (this is 5 hours from the last post).

12 am- I posted and went to sleep. 5 am- I woke up early enough to post again before leaving.

**

I hate to say this now because it will surely look like some kind of a revenge, but I started thinking about it already during last Night. Could it be possible that morm was the cursed? Boro's change on opinion on Day 3 was quite strange and the wolves noticed it (as can be seen of Nerwen's reaction). Morm had been quite after Nerwen anyway so it wouldn't have been that surprising if the wolves had decided to kill him.

Ok, time to go. I'll be back in some hours.

[The Saucepan Man]

I am becoming rather concerned at the lengths to which morm appears to have gone to condemn Aganzir toDay. It seems as though he is trying to muster all the points that he can as early as possible in an effort to convince the village to vote for her, which I rather think is precisely what a Wolf would want to do in the current situation.

And Aganzir looks like the obvious target for a Wolf trying to survive the last Day. The rest of us have hardly been suspected at all, whereas she has been under suspicion for much of the game, even over the last few Days. If I were the last Wolf, she is the one that I would put all my efforts into getting lynched toDay.

But I think it very unlikely that she is our remaining Wolf. She simply tried too hard to get Mac lynched in the first few Days for me to think her an original Wolf. It’s possible that she was the Cursed one, but her insistence on pursuing Legate, despite him being a known innocent (or known non-Wolf, at least) makes me think not. It was far too risky behaviour for a lone Wolf. The Wolf’s best bet over the last few Days will have been to merge in, be involved in the discussion, make reasonable points, avoid controversy and generally act like an innocent would in the circumstances. Which is precisely what morm has done. I have thought him innocent because he has come across so innocent. But I am beginning to whether he may Wolfishly have been pulling the wool over my eyes.

As for Kath, I have no idea. But I tend to think that she has simply been too quiet to be the last Wolf.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

If I were the last Wolf, she is the one that I would put all my efforts into getting lynched toDay.

And that means you are not the last wolf, eh?

Mormie, lynching me now means that the village loses. But that's what you want anyway, isn't it?

Of those who haven't yet been targets for eager analysing, I find Saucie more innocent. So maybe it's about time I took a quick look on morm.

Day 1 he suspects Rikae, Nerwen and Farael and votes Boro.
Day 2 he brings forward the Nog-Mac theory. Suggests lynching Nerwen to find out what she is. Finds Mac innocent. Votes Nerwen.
Day 3 suspects Nerwen and Might the most. Says he thought the ranger was successful the previous Night, the narration is ambiguous and he doesn't want to get hung up on thinking if the cursed has been turned. Votes Nerwen.
Day 4 he says Mac might have been the cursed and Might could be the last wolf. Thinks Saucie is wise in being objective (a good way to appear uncertain whether he should trust Farael or the wolves). Is incined to believe Farael but keeps speculating if Boro and/or Farael could be a cobbler or a wolf. Then he finds Farael suspicious and votes him, but changes to Mac after pressure by Boro.
Day 5 considers Legate the cobbler. I know it was me who started it, but he was of great help in making the village not to trust a known innocent. Top suspects are Might and Eomer, suspects also Isabell and me. If we assume the game is continuing because there's still a wolf out there, all of his suspects were innocent. Votes Rikae.
Day 6 speculates if the wolves were able to choose their cursed. Is worried about Isabell but votes his top suspect Might.
Day 7 he trusts Saucie and suspects me and Isabell. Says the cursed was probably turned on Night 4 and is still alive. Votes Isabell, who strikes him as a newly-turned wolf.
Day 8 thinks I am the last wolf. Makes analyses of me and Kath and votes me.

**

Before Day 4 he had been spotting wolves quite nicely, so it'd be no wonder if the wolves had tried to kill him. Especially as Boro's behaviour pointed that at least either of them had something to do with giftedness.
While I think it's good that the first to claim to be a gifted isn't believed straight away, he was maybe a bit too uncertain to my liking. Being declared innocent by Boro he could behave about as suspiciously as he wanted without being suspected of wolvery. And there really was a chance Farael could have been lynched.
And as Saucie pointed out, getting me lynched today is definately the easiest way for the wolf to win.

Unless Kath or Saucie come and beg me to vote them before I leave, morm is probably the one to get my vote today.

[mormegil]

Mormie, lynching me now means that the village loses. But that's what you want anyway, isn't it

I love these threats Agan, they always help me know who I'm dealing with.

I find it interesting the Saucie states that he will be looking at me, which is fair and valid and Agan obivously jumps on and latches herself to that hoping that she will be able to actually get Saucie to vote thus securing her victory.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I love these threats Agan, they always help me know who I'm dealing with.

Me too, they're an essential part of my character.
But that was actually not a threat- I was telling the truth.

Originally Posted by mormie

I find it interesting the Saucie states that he will be looking at me, which is fair and valid and Agan obivously jumps on and latches herself to that hoping that she will be able to actually get Saucie to vote thus securing her victory.

I am hoping to get Saucie to vote to secure my victory, that's true. Because at the moment I strongly feel that he's innocent and you aren't.

edit: xed with Saucie and Kath. What is it that after this quiet a day everyone's posting at the same time?

[The Saucepan Man]

Zoiks! I don't like that analysis of mormegil at all, Aganzir.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

If we assume the game is continuing because there's still a wolf out there, all of his suspects were innocent.

Given that (Rikae apart) there was one Wolf among nine villagers, that's hardly surprising. And it also assumes that you are not a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Before Day 4 he had been spotting wolves quite nicely, so it'd be no wonder if the wolves had tried to kill him.

That could apply to any one of the four of us left.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And as Saucie pointed out, getting me lynched today is definately the easiest way for the wolf to win.

The again, after my earlier doubts about mormegil, increasing the suspicion on him is just about the best way that you have of winning, if you be a Wolf.

Hmm, now I'm torn ...

[Kath]

I'm half-inclined to agree with Aganzir, I'm still not convinced there's even a baddie left. Even if it seems a thing only Fea seems evil enough to do, remember that she is co-writing this!

Anyway, I've been having a look back over the thread with these three remaining possibilities:

morm
Day 1 ~ argued himself backwards and forwards, 'could be this but whatever', he seemed a bit pessimistic to start with. Did catch Nerwen's jumpiness, I think too early to be a wolf planning to lynch it's fellow, and did set out some suspicions early on. Made a good point about wolf discussions. Mentions some suspicions and defends himself a little, and then votes with his reasoning.

Sauce
Day 1 ~ a bit over-general to start with and when he came up with Nerwen being suspicious it does look more like it could have been a plan. The suspicion just felt a little forced. His voting post was full of analysis that felt normal for him, and innocent too.

Agan
Day 1 ~ not a huge amount of reasoning behind some of her statements but when there is some it looks good. Got most of the wolves this Day and that is either a fantastic piece of luck or something more than that. A post with not a lot of substance follows that. Lists who she'd be happy to vote for, I thought it could be an indication that she wanted to talk about it with wolf pals but then she could have said that through PM so that's bad reasoning. Does vote for someone she suspected, but offered a very quick defense of Nerwen at the same time.

Hmm, damn, I'm not going to have time to do this properly. I may get through the first two or three Days but unlikely further so I'll just have to hope our final wolf was an original one.

Anyway, after looking at the posts from Day 1 Sauce is at the top of my list in terms of what's been written. Let's see how the rest goes.

[Kath]

morm
Day 2 ~ came up with the idea of Mac and looked innocent doing it, especially as it was reasoned. Kept with his original idea through the Day, coming up with good arguments as he went. Gave a somewhat helpful list, though there wasn't quite enough reasoning for my liking. Sideways jump to Nerwen, but with good reasoning. Good review of Nerwen and keeps up his suspicion of Mac as well.

Sauce
Day 2 ~ seemed thoroughly taken aback to have his theory ruined. Sounds a little more genuine than the day before. Found a new theory pretty quickly though and actually has some good points against Agan, sudden switching and all. Said a wolvish Nerwen wouldn't kill Shasta, and again if we had opposing teams he could be quite correct, even if he was wrong about Nerwen's wolvishness. Has picked up on Rikae and Mac early on too, and mentions Agan again. He's been pretty consistent actually which speaks in his favour. A list with more reasoning than morm's, and most of it looked good. I popped up on his suspect list and I suppose I can see why so I won't call him on it. Basically he seemed normal toDay and his vote made sense too, he's not one to vote if it won't do anything.

Agan
Day 2 ~ explains her vote from the Day before and does/doesn't come up with suspicion over Rikae. She does go quite strongly against many of our now known wolves and if she is one it does lend strength to the opposing teams theory. Votes Mac, which does seem a little bold for a wolf when she starts the vote for someone many are suspicious of and would happily vote for when she's already lost a member of her team. I don't think she would play such a bold wolf, except that as the Days have gone by I've been more convinced not all the wolves have been working together. And actually she might well play that bold a wolf, especially when more people were suspicious of Mac than her and it might have helped clear her name.

So at the end of Day 2 it's Agan at the top of my suspect list. Now, I don't think I have time to go through any more Day's properly so what I'm going to do is look at toDay and see what I think.

[mormegil]

Post 104 she talks about some of the first day main suspects, namely Farael, Shasta, Rikae, Nogrod and Nerwen. Seems that she feels Nerwen is the most suspicous of the group.

Post 121 she speaks to Boro about the way she analyzes things. She comments to Nogrod that there are some, like Valier, who are more hunch players than anything.

Post 127 She responds again to Boro who had responded to her. She simply explains that they have a difference of opinion and playing style and gives the root of hers.

Post 138 comes back quickly to vote. She votes Nerwen because she seemed jumpy, which is something I noticed and pointed out so obviously agree with. Day 1 Kath seems fairly innocent.

Post 222 she responds to Nerwen of her use of the word 'scream' and feels that Nerwen was screaming against whatever was said. I remember this and agreed with Nerwen's reaction as screaming as it seemed such to me too.

Post 239 gives her run down of how she feels about the village and notably finds Nerwen and Rikae in the top 4 suspects and that on Mac she 'just doesn't know' what to think or feel about him.

Post 292 states she should be back before the deadline but votes for Nerwen in case she cant' be back in time.

Post 338 decides to leave her vote for Nerwen. States:

I know that I will be preoccupied with Nerwen this entire game and here's a chance to know for sure. I hate that that's my strongest reason for leaving my vote as it is, but it's a strong one to me. I dislike getting bogged down on one person.

This marks the end of day three and I felt and still feel that Kath seems innocent to me. I can see that the wolves may have thought that with her suspicion of Nerwen they could view an innocent Kath as the seer especially the way she stated the above quote but I doubt it honestly.

Post 420 talks about the Farael revelation and wants to trust him because he has shown two wolves but also mentions how it could be a wolfish plot as he hasn't revelaed the ranger. I remember commenting on this too that Farael could have been either a wolf or cobbler type role hoping to lure the ranger and seer out.

Post 423 corrects her invalid assumption of how the ranger's death might effect the seer.

Post 442 votes Mac as this makes the most sense to her as either way we won't be losing a gifted.

I need to leave for 20 to 30 minutes, (I'm at work and need to do a few things and run elsewhere) I'll finish my post then on Kath (hopefully)