WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[The Saucepan Man]

Cripes!

OK, so if I have it right, there are two possible scenarios, one of which is the correct one:

1) Farael is the Seer, Boro the Ranger, and Mac and Rikae both Wolves. In this scenario, it looks likely that the Cursed was awakened on Night 3.

2) Mac is an Ordo, Rikae the Ranger, and Farael and Boro both Wolves (or one a Cobbler). In this scenario, it seems that the Cursed may have been awakened last Night.

Wow! I knew that we had bold Wolves. I worked out overNight that only two living villagers have never voted for a Wolf - Farael and the Might - which indicates that, unless both are Wolves (which I thought unlikely then, and think even less likely now), there has been at least one Wolf-on-Wolf vote ending in the death of a Wolf. But it seems that they are even bolder than I imagined.

Right now, I really don’t know who to trust. After Nerwen’s death, I must say that I thought Farael looked bad. After all, his vote on Day 2 meant that Valier died instead of Nerwen and his vote yesterDay might be construed as an attempt to save Nerwen.

That said, I have suspected Mac throughout much of the proceedings, and would not be at all surprised if he turned out to be a Wolf. I also found Rikae’s last minute switch to Nerwen yesterDay strange and wondered whether it might be a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. I find it quite credible that the Wolves would sacrifice another of their number, given that she was under such pressure, to gain credibility in future Days. In fact, if either Boro or Rikae is a Wolf, then there was most definitely a Wolf-on-Wolf vote to kill Nerwen. Note, whichever one is a Wolf, they could have voted differently, and probably killed an innocent, yet chose to vote Nerwen (although it is, I suppose, possible that Boro is a Cobbler rather than a Wolf).

As for Boro, well I have pretty much trusted him thus far. I noticed the hints yesterDay (but didn‘t get the Mac thing), and that lends some credibility to his story. But why would a Ranger hint so obviously, when it could only lead to his death? And why wasn’t he killed last Night?

I also think it worth raising one further possibility. We know that there are a number of secret roles, giving rise to a twist or twists. Is it possible that one or more of toDay’s revelations are a consequence of this? Might there be a false Seer? Might other revelations be the product of some secret role bearing its own agenda? Even if this be the case, however, I cannot see that there would be two Rangers, or even a false Ranger. Surely, either Boro or Rikae is up to no good.

I would suggest that the best way forward is to compare toDay’s revelations against the background of the past few Days’ votes and behaviour. My instinct is to trust Farael and Boro, but I cannot be at all certain at present.

[The Saucepan Man]

Some quick thoughts from the votes and past behaviour.

Given that Nerwen is a Wolf, Kath, Isabellkya, morm and Eomer are, for their continued attacks on her, looking quite good to me right now. Although I would be interested to know why Eomer changed the habit of the previous two Days and voted for The Might yesterDay.

The Might’s defence of Nerwen on Day 1 makes him look quite bad. But, unless he is a Wolf to Farael or Boro’s Cobbler, he could not have been a Wolf on Day 1.

Rikae voted in bandwagons against innocents on Day 1 and Day 2. Yet put in a decisive vote for a Wolf yesterDay. What I would like to know from her is why she has appeared to suspect Mac throughout Days 2 and 3, yet pulled back from voting for him both Days, claiming that he should be given more time. Also, why she protected him at Night when she was openly suspecting him during the Day. I think that Mac and Rikae’s interaction throughout will be worth reviewing. Funnily enough, it was Nogrod that first raised the possibility of them being Wolves together. Perhaps, as I said before, he was telling a truth to conceal it.

As for the voting yesterDay, some more questions:

Rikae, why did you switch at the last minute to Nerwen?
Same question to Boro.
Mac, why didn’t you switch to Nerwen to save yourself?
Same question to Aganzir.

Also, a point that Legate raised, I think, but worth raising again. If Mac is a Wolf, why on earth did Nerwen switch her vote to him, rather than to Aganzir? Is Aganzir the Cursed? Strange that she should make such a case against Mac, if that be the case. Or did they decide to reenact Day 1 and agree that one of them could be sacrificed to make the other look better. If so, why didn’t Mac vote for Nerwen? That switch of Nerwen’s is the one thing that really makes me hesitate over Mac being a Wolf.

It's late here, and I have neither the time nor the inclination to go back over the proceedings thus far to do any detailed analysis. I shall try tomorrow, but it is New Year's Eve in my head and I have imaginary guests coming, so I don't know how much I can be present in this village.

[The Saucepan Man]

Bah! I couldn’t sleep with all this buzzing round in my head, so here’s my theory wot I have come up with.

Farael is a Wolf. With hindsight, his voting is quite suggestive of it. He voted for Shasta on Day 1, someone who the Wolves had either figured to be the Seer (for his first post comments on Nogrod and Nerwen) or an easy Day 1 kill, or both. He voted for Valier on Day 2, which helped to save Nerwen that Day. He tried very hard to get Mac (an innocent in this scenario) killed yesterDay in order to save Nerwen again.

So why does a Wolf come up with this Seer ploy on Day 4, having already lost two of his comrades, knowing that it will be the death of him eventually? It seems an unlikely thing to do, but I'm pretty sure that we have a bold pack of Wolves on our hands and perhaps they thought that it was worth it to get either Mac or Rikae lynched toDay or alternatively flush out the real Seer. Possibly, if they have gained the Cursed, they think that the remaining two Wolves have a good chance of toughing it out.

Boro is the Cobbler. He didn’t know who the Wolves were, which explains his vote yesterDay for Nerwen. He dropped a few Ranger hints yesterDay to muddy the waters (perhaps guessing that the Cursed had been found and trying to disguise it), but at the same time warned the Wolves off by saying that it would not be worth their while to attack him at Night (or words to that effect, if I recall correctly). ToDay, he has correctly identified Farael’s revelation as a ploy, and has played along in support of it.

OK, it’s just a theory and I am by no means wholly convinced of it. But I can imagine it, or something like it, being possible, and it would certainly explain the votes of Nerwen and Farael yesterDay.

And now I really must away to the land of nod. Hopefully, when I return, there will be more to work on to help me make up my mind as I really am torn at present.

[mormegil]

Wow! So after Nerwen's death and being a wolf I thought I had a good handle on the goings on, but I must say that I am fully confused. I think SpM is being rather wise in looking objectively on it. The problem as I see it, is there are going to be two groups:

Farael, Boro, Mac and Rikae

and

The rest of us.

Obviously the rest of us are the larges voting block and it is up to us to decide. I think we should be as objective as possible and try and sort this mess out. Of course, there is the chance that there is a wolf amongst us which might sway us a bit but one out of so many is fairly negligible at this point.

I'm trying to remember where I read this, but something I read brought to my mind that Mac may have been the cursed turned evil. That would explain why he was going after Nogrod on day 1, he unknowingly was attacking a future ally. I think it is safe to say that if Mac is a wolf so is Rikae and that Farael is telling the truth. The question, in this scenario, is who would be the third wolf. I would suggest the Might as he has been fairly defensive of Nerwen. When I came into this today I was convinced to kill the Might, obviously that is on hold now.

I could see that Boro or Farael is a cobbler and one a wolf though I'm not sure of that because if Farael is a cobbler why would Boro come out and do what he has done? Boro, previous to this, was looking pretty good so why would he expose himself. If Farael is a wolf I could see that Boro is a cobbler. Here again, SpM speaks wisdom though. Could Farael be a false seer and unwittingly flushed out our ranger? I doubt the possibilty of two cobblers but it's something to consider.

Right now the scenario that makes most sense to me is Farael being the seer. He had his dream and wisely stepped forward with his two wolves before risking death. I would like to consult with the other not involved in this and get their take on it, though I'm loth to listen to The Might.

My head is spinning with confusion.

[Farael]

SPM you talked yourself into a knot there... and as much as I'd like to see you dead to avenge past aggravations, you were my night 1 dream and I found you an ordo.

Of course, since there's reason to believe the cursed was turned, you may very well be a wolf now (which would explain your confusing logic) but then, since I know I am the Seer, anyone suspecting me sounds kinda dubious.

Now, Morm voiced one of my biggest fears... my dreams were as follow

Night 1: SPM Innocent (keep in mind the cursed is likely to be turned)
Night 2: Boromir Ranger
Night 3: Macalaure Wolf
Night 4: Rikae Wolf

Now up until Boromir said he was the Ranger I was worried I'd be a false seer... I mean c'mon, a gifted and two wolves in four dreams? but now I'm fairly confident I AM the Seer, unless Phantom has some weird weird twists in mind.

My thoughts on this is that there was some sort of a rift among the Werewolves... it would explain their killing off numbers of their own without it being a nth bluff. Perhaps there were two teams, or perhaps the wolves were each man for themselves... though of course, they can't come out and actively accuse one another since that'd mark them as wolves themselves.

I don't know, I'm trying hard not to focus too much on the twists... right now we have two wolves to lynch and potentially a third one to hunt down and as long as I'm alive and dreaming there's the chance I'll stumble on to the remaining wolf... and then no twists can change that.

[the phantom]

TALLY

Sorry, there's no narrative yet, but I do have the tally up in my day-beginning post.

Carry on.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Two things for start.

1. Why did so few people post while I was sleeping? Not that I don't like reading only a few things after being away for so long, yet where is everyone right now?

2. This did not help. I am still confused.

Now Boro appeared. So whatever the case, we have one Ranger and one Pseudo-Ranger (unless there is another third Ranger somewhere, I am not going to be surprised by anything now). The problem is that all the theories are equally probable. Since Farael came up with Boro on his list - and SpM now after SpM has spoken - only after he revealed, it does not necessarily have to mean Farael speaks truth, it is quite easy to think of this as a response move (wolf would do that, or a cobbler, or whoever). The wolves are bold, whatever the case. SpM's points make sense to me, as do morm's. Yet still, it does not help at all. If I trusted my earlier opinions and judgements, I would trust Mac. But what if...?

Ai, ai. I will probably read and reread and think and rethink and then I will return and hopefully, be more clear later.