WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Farael]

Ok, a few thoughts

Last night's narration explains a lot. I thought that it was possible the wolves were divided somehow and I'd say it's quite likely that Rikae and Macalaure were "lovers"

That also means that Rikae cannot have been the cursed.

This is my last day here, the wolves killed Boromir so that he could not protect me tonight. Even if he claimed he protected me last night, they couldn't know whether he was bluffing or not.

Now, barring a sudden twist that I do not expect (methinks the "twist" was the lovers among the wolves) I will be killed this night.

All we know for sure right now is

Known innocents
Legate (Last night's dream)
Farael (so long, and thanks for all the fish)

Dreamed of, or hunted by Valier before the Cursed was turned
Saucepan Man
Mormegil


Completely Unknowns
Aganzir- hangwoman
Eomer of the Rohirrim- gravedigger
Isabellkya- hen
Kath- milliner
The Might- shephard

Wolf
Rikae : (nananana.... nananana... HEY HEY HEY... good-bye)

A few thoughts on what should be done next.

Of course, Rikae dies today. There's no point in having her around any longer. Then it will be up to you all to find the remaning wolf.

If you think Nerwen was the cursed, then SPM and Mormegil are ordos and we have one of the "original" wolves among the unknowns.

That means that we should be looking for people who have been consistently wolfish from Day 1

If you think that we have found all the "original" wolves and only the turned-cursed is left, SPM and Morm are not in the clear and we have to look for people who may have changed their playing style slightly after the night the cursed was turned.

I'm not sure which scenario is the most likely.

On one hand, SPM has been rather clueless and it's surprising to see him alive for so long, he's usually an early kill.

However, it's quite possible that, due to SPM's cluelesness the wolves thought there were other, higher priority targets.

SPM will be my dream tonight, as Phantom said he'd let me know even if I am to be killed by the wolves... so I will know his role, but it's unlikely you will

Right now though I'm leaning towards [B}Aganzir[/B] being guilty, her attack on Legate seems weak (even if I DID dream of Legate her points are mostly circumstantial)

This quote really makes me wonder

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What happened in the Night? It doesn't look like the wolves had tried to kill Boro, or was there some weird twist?

Why talk about some far-fetched twist when it's obvious the wolves got rid of the Ranger so they could get to me without risking a ranger save if Boro had bluffed yesterDay about protecting me the night before?

Also, don't you all agree that Rikae and Macalaure are werewolf-lovers? That'd explain why Mac AND Rikae helped getting rid of Nogrod and Nerwen respectively. We are not dealing with some super-bold wolves... we are dealing with furry traitors of their own kin (doubly so, once for wolves, once for lovers)

So, unlike Morm who posted when I was still writing this post (I checked the thread before submitting to avoid a massive x-posting :P) I think that Aganzir's points are not all that strong.

KEEP IN MIND I DID NOT DREAM OF HER

[Isabellkya]

++ Rikae

For obvious reasons. oohh that is pretty interesting, if Mac and Rikae as Wolf lovers had to ret rid of the rest of their team to grab a victory for themselves. That is twisty in deed.

The tactics of the wolves during the night are pretty straight forward; they killed the Ranger so they could make a clean kill of the Seer toNight. I think the only thing which could be found strange is that the wolves' master of fog made the kill; rather than them.

....

I'll be back later to post more, but my grandparents are coming over for dinner in roughly 1.5 hours and I've got to start cooking.

[Rikae]

You didn't really think TP would only add twists helpful to the villiage, did you?

You know, now that my apprentice, her assistant, and my competitor are gone, you are soon going to find yourself without a herbalist. How do you plan to medicate yourselves so you can sleep at night, knowing the wolves will eat you one by one?

I also don't know what you're going to do when your shoes wear out...

See you soon, Macalaure....

EDIT: I should say "you don't really think TP would", because, after all, you don't know the twist I speak of yet. You will soon enough, though!

[Rikae]

Oh, yeah - I told you Legate was innocent, didn't I?
I would keep an eye on that Aganzir if I were you.

++Aganzir

[Farael]

A bit of advice... it's pointless to read much into what Rikae says... everything could be a doubletripleoctuple bluff so might as well ignore her.

[The Saucepan Man]

Ahem! Beg pardon, Farael. Let me make amends.

++Rikae

I'm not sure how helpful it is, but here is yesterDay's voting record:

Rikae: ++Farael (Farael 1)
Mac: ++Farael (Farael 2)
Boro: ++Rikae (Farael 2, Rikae 1)
Aganzir: ++Mac (Farael 2, Rikae 1, Mac 1)
Eomer: ++Mac (Farael 2, Rikae 1, Mac 2)
SpM: ++Farael (Farael 3, Rikae 1, Mac 2)
The Might: ++Mac (Farael 3, Rikae 1, Mac 3)
Morm: ++Farael (Farael 4, Rikae 1, Mac 3)
Kath: ++Mac (Farael 4, Rikae 1, Mac 4)
Boro: --Rikae (Farael 4, Mac 4)
Morm: --Farael, ++Mac (Farael 3, Mac 5)
Farael: ++Mac (Farael 3, Mac 6)
Legate: ++Farael (Farael 4, Mac 6)
Boro: ++Mac (Farael 4, Mac 7)
Isabellkya: ++Mac (Farael 4, Mac 8)

So far, we have caught the following Wolves:

Nogrod
Nerwen
Mac
Rikae

We know (I think) that the Cursed was turned on Night 3.

Obviousy, Nogrod cannot have been the Cursed and neither can Mac, since Boro chose to protect him on Night 3. I don’t believe that Nerwen was the Cursed, since she acted pretty consistently (and was suspected pretty consistently for it) from the off. It is possible that Rikae too was a Wolf from the start, given Nog’s funny vote for her on Day 1. However, I also find it quite plausible that Rikae was the Cursed. Given her claimed ability to spot a Wolfish Mac, I can well imagine him choosing to hunt her.

This, I think, might be a good issue to discuss toDay as, depending on whether we have an original Wolf or an ex-Cursed left on our hands after toDay, our search will have a different focus. Farael makes the point well above.

My current thoughts are as follows:

Legate: Known innocent. Possible Cobbler, but doubtful I think.

Mormegil: If Morm is a Wolf, then he is the ex-Cursed. On Day 3, he made a strong case against, and voted for, Nerwen, which speaks in his favour. I don‘t like the way his votes went yesterDay, however. Perhaps his first instinct was to try to save his packmate, but he thought better of it when he saw the writing on the wall.

Aganzir: With Legate cleared, if there was a second Wolfish vote for Nogrod on Day 1, it must have been Aganzir’s. She then accused, and consistently voted for, Mac. Given all the Wolf-on-Wolf votes there have been, how likely is it that these were too? That said, her Day 2 vote for him was a pretty safe one for a ‘Wolf-on-Wolf’, she had little leeway on Day 3, and pretty much no option yesterDay. I am therefore not at all sure that her voting record clears her, and I don’t like the way that she came in toDay with such a strong case against Legate. I share others’ disquiet about her. Rikae’s vote for her could go either way, so I regard it as pretty meaningless.

Eomer: The way that he voted for Nerwen consistently until Day 3, the Day that she was lynched, might suggest that he was the Cursed one. Like morm, I don’t like the way that he was acting so nonchalantly yesterDay. It's conceivable that he is a Wolf.

Isabellkya: She consistently voted for Nerwen, a Wolf in danger throughout her career in this village, which speaks in her favour. However, she voted last for Mac yesterDay, at a time when his fate was pretty much sealed. It was a convenient time for the last Wolf to make sure that she was on the ‘right’ bandwaggon.

Kath: Like Isabellkya, she consistently voted for Nerwen and her vote for Mac yesterDay came at quite a pivotal moment. Of all the unknowns, I see her as the least Wolfish.

The Might: He is the only unknown never to have voted for a known Wolf before yesterDay, and I still don’t like those ‘throwaway’ votes for Eomer. However, his vote for Mac did come at a fairly pivotal time.

So, at present, I would rate Aganzir as the most suspicious and (Legate aside) Kath as the least. The others fall in between.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Ahem! Beg pardon, Farael. Let me make amends.

++Rikae

You say that as though there was a choice. You know, your vote of yesterDay was quite wolfish indeed, SPaM...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

However, I also find it quite plausible that Rikae was the Cursed. Given her claimed ability to spot a Wolfish Mac, I can well imagine him choosing to hunt her.

I truly can always spot a wolfish Mac, indeed I can, for I am very clever. Mac is very clever, too- cleverer than you know.

Farael, m'dear - surely you realise that when you are still alive tomorrow, the village will start to wonder...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Farael

A bit of advice... it's pointless to read much into what Rikae says... everything could be a doubletripleoctuple bluff so might as well ignore her.

The question is, am I the sort of man who would put the poison into my own cup, or my enemy's?

Nothing is meaningless, and I don't intend to lie from this point on.

"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose..."

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Rikae

The question is, am I the sort of man who would put the poison into my own cup, or my enemy's?

Nothing is meaningless, and I don't intend to lie from this point on.

"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose..."

You're a guy?

Now looking at yesterday's voting record, there are two things that come to my attention.

I had four votes, two by Mac and Rikae which don't tell us much. Then we have Legate with some EXTREMELY flawed logic... but proven an ordo

and SPM

Now, he votes for me at quite a pivotal time, as it put me in the lead. Perhaps he was hoping that some innocents would see the tally, notice that I'm in the lead and decide to vote for me?

He has an awful lot of explaining to do over that vote.

Conversely, The Might voted Mac to get a tie with me (which puts him on the lead as he was the "last one" to get there). If he was a wolf, why act so quick to kill one of their own? he could've stayed put and gauged the village's reaction to SPM's vote.

Of course, they can't both be wolves (simple math, there's only one unknown wolf left). If I had to choose one of the pair, I'd say SPM's vote looks AWFUL.

I don't think right now that SPM should be a top suspect this day, but looking at the voting record, his vote for me looks pretty bad.

Either way, i'll find out this night what SPM may be... it's a throwaway dream, but it's not like I'd be able to share it with y'all

Also, why does everyone keep on pushing the idea of a cobbler?

And before I forget

++SPM

Oh, yeah... right.

--SPM
++Rikae

Disclaimer: No, I am not leaving seer hints about SPM with that vote, just keeping and old vendetta alive

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

The tactics of the wolves during the night are pretty straight forward; they killed the Ranger so they could make a clean kill of the Seer toNight. I think the only thing which could be found strange is that the wolves' master of fog made the kill; rather than them.

This quote keeps bothering me. I don't know if this is of any help, I do this rather to sort out my own thoughts, but anyway.

No one died on Nights 3 and 4. One was a ranger protection, the other the cursed turning into a wolf. We don't know which.

Boro protected Mac on Night 3 and Farael on Night 4. It was not possible that Mac would have been the wolf pick, so it would make sense that the cursed was wolverised on Night 3.

If the cursed was turned on Night 3, the only option is that the wolves attacked Farael on Night 4 and found he was protected. Why on earth did they kill Boro the next night then? Were they afraid there might be some twist that allowed him to harm them or something? Or was Boro closer than Farael to catch the last wolf so that the wolves didn't care if he got one dream more? Or was Boro twisted in a way that allowed him to force the wolves to kill him?

If the cursed was turned on Night 4, the wolves couldn't know if Boro had really protected Farael. They had to take him out first, even if that meant Farael would get one dream more. What happened on Night 3 then? I have no idea.

What does Izzie's quote have to do with all this? She just seemed to be a little too knowledgeable about what the wolves have been thinking and doing.
It was expected here that the wolves would have gone after Farael who couldn't be protected that night (as everybody thought the wolves had tried to kill him the previous night), and now Isabell came telling that the wolves had to take Boro first. Because they couldn't know if Farael would be protected.

I don't really have the energy to speculate this more (and I doubt if it's even that useful), and I guess I'm being rather unclear anyway. Besides, I'm quite sure I forgot something.
Ah well,

++ Isabell

[Kath]

I can promise you that my lack of posting isn't apathy morm, though I suppose I could have tried a little harder. Mostly I've just been having surprisingly full days (and an irritating net connection at times).

Now then, I must vote and go, and whilst I hate to add to such a bandwagon the fact that we've seen so little of Izzy toDay and my earlier suspicion of her means I must:

++IZZY

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What does Izzie's quote have to do with all this? She just seemed to be a little too knowledgeable about what the wolves have been thinking and doing.
It was expected here that the wolves would have gone after Farael who couldn't be protected that night (as everybody thought the wolves had tried to kill him the previous night), and now Isabell came telling that the wolves had to take Boro first. Because they couldn't know if Farael would be protected.

Well, not necessarily. Personally, when I read this, a long time ago, I considered it as statement of facts - if the wolves did not know whether Farael was protected or not, it was obvious for them that they had to kill Boro first. For a villager who did not know whether the wolves knew that Farael was protected, such a villager could assume that either the wolves knew or that they did not and it does not seem suspicious to me when someone sides with one of these opinions.

Anyway, I don't think I am going to dig anything more and don't know whether I will remain here till the DL itself, so I am voting now

++Aganzir

with the hope that here the root of all our trouble lies.

EDIT: x-ed with Kath

[Isabellkya]

++Aganzir

Quite interesting that yesterDay you were pretty trigger happy to see me lynched, yet today you actually deemed it it neccesary to 'analyze' my posts before you made your vote.

............
I would post more, but I literally cannot. Yes I know I have been pretty quite; but as one of my posts stated I was feeling ill. Two days ago we had wind storms which led to a power outage, we didn't get internet back until late last night. Since then, being only halway back it continually reconnects itself, so it takes a ridiculously long time to get to a page.

[Isabellkya]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

The tactics of the wolves during the night are pretty straight forward; they killed the Ranger so they could make a clean kill of the Seer toNight. I think the only thing which could be found strange is that the wolves' master of fog made the kill; rather than them.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

This quote keeps bothering me. I don't know if this is of any help, I do this rather to sort out my own thoughts, but anyway.

...
What does Izzie's quote have to do with all this? She just seemed to be a little too knowledgeable about what the wolves have been thinking and doing.
It was expected here that the wolves would have gone after Farael who couldn't be protected that night (as everybody thought the wolves had tried to kill him the previous night), and now Isabell came telling that the wolves had to take Boro first. Because they couldn't know if Farael would be protected.

I don't really have the energy to speculate this more (and I doubt if it's even that useful), and I guess I'm being rather unclear anyway. Besides, I'm quite sure I forgot something.
Ah well,

++ Isabell

Going after a known gifted who may or may not be protected, is a bit risky. You can either get lucky and kill them, or you waste a kill. There is a much higher probability of killing the gifted's protector, leaving a clear path in killing the gifted; without wasting a kill. When you are a baddie, you don't have the luxury of wasting kills.

Anyone who has played many werewolf games would know this; it isn't special knowledge privy to only Wolves; yet I'm glad you pointed it out. Ignoring the obvious strategy is a bit on the denial side; almost as if you want to avoid it.

[the phantom]

The Day was quiet. Everyone spoke, but not much. The residents were tentative, confused, and anxious.

What little speech there was gave Isabellkya the feeling that the lynch would be swinging in her direction, and she slowly edged her way out of the conversation.

As the sun set, Kath noticed someone was missing. "Where's Izzy?"

Legate, SPM, and morm looked around in surprise. No one had spotted her leaving. "All right, we need to go look for her," said Aganzir. "Perhaps if we split into two groups and-"

*splash*

The villagers all rushed off in the direction of the splash, stopping only when they reached the shore. Izzy was swimming desperately towards the fog.

"It won't let you out!" yelled Legate. "Why bother?!"

"There's no telling what the fog will do to you!" bellowed SPM.

Izzy stayed her stroke and paddled to face them, and began yelling. "I don't care! I just want it over with! What good am I anyway?! I don't know how to help! I don't know what is happening! I don't even know-"

And then, as if some leviathan had grabbed her legs, she was jerked beneath the surface of the lake.

The Residents-
Aganzir- hangwoman
Kath- milliner
Legate of Amon Lanc- lamp-maker/fiddler
mormegil- woodsman/carpenter
The Saucepan Man- traveling tinker

The Departed-
Nogrod, reticent lumberjack- Day 1 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)
Shastanis Althreduin, herbalist- Night 2 wolf slaughter (VILLAGER)
Valier, basket weaver- Day 2 lynch victim (HUNTER)
Azaelia of Willowbottom, apprentice to Rikae- slain by Hunter on Day 2 (VILLAGER)
Nerwen, miller- found out on Day 3 (WEREWOLF)
Macalaure, jailer- outed on Day 4 (WEREWOLF)
Boromir88, assistant to the apprentice to Rikae- taken by fog on Night 5 (RANGER)
Rikae, midwife/wise-woman- executed on Day 5 (WEREWOLF)
Farael, conspiracy theorist- surrendered to fog on Night 6 (SEER)
The Might, shepherd– went missing upon execution Day 6 (?)
Eomer of the Rohirrim, gravedigger- dug his own grave, yet was not in it Night 7 (?)
Isabellkya, hen- swallowed by lake on Day 7 (?)

IT IS NOW NIGHT 8. YOU MAY NOT POST.

[the phantom]

Dawn was, as usual, misty and dim. The villagers met in the center of the village and found that Legate was missing.

Out of curiosity they made their way to his hut and looked inside. There was blood everywhere, but no Legate- in entirety, anyway. There were bits and pieces of the unfortunate fiddler everywhere.

"Where's the rest of him?" asked Aganzir, as she picked her teeth with what appeared to be a splinter of human bone.

"Eaten, no doubt," answered Kath, who was licking her lips as she gazed at the scene.

"Ah, yes, fiddlers taste excellent," said mormegil. "Or so I've heard," he added quickly.

The Saucepan Man merely belched and rubbed his full stomach.

"Work together!" said the Voice. "Discover the culprit now, before it is too late!"

"Or don't!" shouted the fog. "It matters not!"

(This is the final day, folks. Have fun. )

The Residents-
Aganzir- hangwoman
Kath- milliner
mormegil- woodsman/carpenter
The Saucepan Man- traveling tinker

The Departed-
Nogrod, reticent lumberjack- Day 1 lynch victim (WEREWOLF)
Shastanis Althreduin, herbalist- Night 2 wolf slaughter (VILLAGER)
Valier, basket weaver- Day 2 lynch victim (HUNTER)
Azaelia of Willowbottom, apprentice to Rikae- slain by Hunter on Day 2 (VILLAGER)
Nerwen, miller- found out on Day 3 (WEREWOLF)
Macalaure, jailer- outed on Day 4 (WEREWOLF)
Boromir88, assistant to the apprentice to Rikae- taken by fog on Night 5 (RANGER)
Rikae, midwife/wise-woman- executed on Day 5 (WEREWOLF)
Farael, conspiracy theorist- surrendered to fog on Night 6 (SEER)
The Might, shepherd– went missing upon execution Day 6 (?)
Eomer of the Rohirrim, gravedigger- dug his own grave, yet was not in it Night 7 (?)
Isabellkya, hen- swallowed by lake on Day 7 (?)
Legate of Amon Lanc, lamp-maker/fiddler- eaten on Night 8 (?)

IT IS NOW DAY 8. YOU MAY POST.

[mormegil]

It does seem obvious that we still have the last wolf based on the narrative. With the premise, I wonder why the phantom hasn't revealed the other roles. I'm still considering one of the remaining two females as the most likely wolf. Saucie has been far too consistent and thoughtful to be a wolf, plus the only chance for him to be one was if he was attacked on night 4 and while possible I don't think it as probable. If I had to pick this moment I would think Agan to be the last wolf. I've given it a lot of thought over the past 24 hours and my gut is telling me Agan. The thing I keep coming back to is that I feel Kath is innocent and I believe I can read her better than most, however I once said that of Mithalwen and was dead wrong so perhaps I'm over confident but I'm apt to trust my instincts on this.