WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Aganzir]

Kath: unknown but innocent-looking.
morm: probably innocent at least until Day 2, after that the cursed was turned, innocent-looking anyway.
Saucie: innocent at least at the beginning, after that the cursed was turned, innocent-looking anyway.

I'm beginning to wonder if there are any wolves left. I know I am not a wolf and all of you just feel so darn innocent.

There's something from yesterday I want to answer despite the fact that the person who stated it is dead.

Originally Posted by Isabell

Quite interesting that yesterDay you were pretty trigger happy to see me lynched, yet today you actually deemed it it neccesary to 'analyze' my posts before you made your vote.

The Day before yesterDay I was abroad, sitting in a net cafe with just enough time to skim the thread and post.
I don't do an analysis as a reason for a vote I have already decided to cast- I want to know if I think someone is guilty even after I've concentrated on them properly.

Mormie's project then... Let's see if I can shed some light on it.

Post 216 She starts off by rejoicings that she has her first ever vote (odd)

I was not rejoicing I got my first vote, I was rather gloating over not being voted ever earlier (despite being a wolf twice, as Mac kindy pointed out). So not odd but conceited.

Post 306 she is rather defensive and seems to get aggresive anytime somebody suspects her.

As far as I recall I have always been aggressive when suspected, whether I'm a wolf or not.

Post 427 she decides that Rikae is a wolf. I think that a wolf Agan would be willing to go after her fellows but doesn't really go after either with the same gusto that she did the day before.

Post 429 votes Mac but again never established a viable arguement. Seems to have backed down on her attack of Mac. Agan seems to be the type that would have gloated over being shown that Mac was a wolf, yet she didn't do anything like that. She really did calm down her suspicion of Mac.

Tell me why you think it would have been necessary to keep coming up with points against someone the seer has already revealed a wolf.

Stated that she had to do so quickly because she may not be back later, which I understand (this is 5 hours from the last post).

12 am- I posted and went to sleep. 5 am- I woke up early enough to post again before leaving.

**

I hate to say this now because it will surely look like some kind of a revenge, but I started thinking about it already during last Night. Could it be possible that morm was the cursed? Boro's change on opinion on Day 3 was quite strange and the wolves noticed it (as can be seen of Nerwen's reaction). Morm had been quite after Nerwen anyway so it wouldn't have been that surprising if the wolves had decided to kill him.

Ok, time to go. I'll be back in some hours.

[The Saucepan Man]

I am becoming rather concerned at the lengths to which morm appears to have gone to condemn Aganzir toDay. It seems as though he is trying to muster all the points that he can as early as possible in an effort to convince the village to vote for her, which I rather think is precisely what a Wolf would want to do in the current situation.

And Aganzir looks like the obvious target for a Wolf trying to survive the last Day. The rest of us have hardly been suspected at all, whereas she has been under suspicion for much of the game, even over the last few Days. If I were the last Wolf, she is the one that I would put all my efforts into getting lynched toDay.

But I think it very unlikely that she is our remaining Wolf. She simply tried too hard to get Mac lynched in the first few Days for me to think her an original Wolf. It’s possible that she was the Cursed one, but her insistence on pursuing Legate, despite him being a known innocent (or known non-Wolf, at least) makes me think not. It was far too risky behaviour for a lone Wolf. The Wolf’s best bet over the last few Days will have been to merge in, be involved in the discussion, make reasonable points, avoid controversy and generally act like an innocent would in the circumstances. Which is precisely what morm has done. I have thought him innocent because he has come across so innocent. But I am beginning to whether he may Wolfishly have been pulling the wool over my eyes.

As for Kath, I have no idea. But I tend to think that she has simply been too quiet to be the last Wolf.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

If I were the last Wolf, she is the one that I would put all my efforts into getting lynched toDay.

And that means you are not the last wolf, eh?

Mormie, lynching me now means that the village loses. But that's what you want anyway, isn't it?

Of those who haven't yet been targets for eager analysing, I find Saucie more innocent. So maybe it's about time I took a quick look on morm.

Day 1 he suspects Rikae, Nerwen and Farael and votes Boro.
Day 2 he brings forward the Nog-Mac theory. Suggests lynching Nerwen to find out what she is. Finds Mac innocent. Votes Nerwen.
Day 3 suspects Nerwen and Might the most. Says he thought the ranger was successful the previous Night, the narration is ambiguous and he doesn't want to get hung up on thinking if the cursed has been turned. Votes Nerwen.
Day 4 he says Mac might have been the cursed and Might could be the last wolf. Thinks Saucie is wise in being objective (a good way to appear uncertain whether he should trust Farael or the wolves). Is incined to believe Farael but keeps speculating if Boro and/or Farael could be a cobbler or a wolf. Then he finds Farael suspicious and votes him, but changes to Mac after pressure by Boro.
Day 5 considers Legate the cobbler. I know it was me who started it, but he was of great help in making the village not to trust a known innocent. Top suspects are Might and Eomer, suspects also Isabell and me. If we assume the game is continuing because there's still a wolf out there, all of his suspects were innocent. Votes Rikae.
Day 6 speculates if the wolves were able to choose their cursed. Is worried about Isabell but votes his top suspect Might.
Day 7 he trusts Saucie and suspects me and Isabell. Says the cursed was probably turned on Night 4 and is still alive. Votes Isabell, who strikes him as a newly-turned wolf.
Day 8 thinks I am the last wolf. Makes analyses of me and Kath and votes me.

**

Before Day 4 he had been spotting wolves quite nicely, so it'd be no wonder if the wolves had tried to kill him. Especially as Boro's behaviour pointed that at least either of them had something to do with giftedness.
While I think it's good that the first to claim to be a gifted isn't believed straight away, he was maybe a bit too uncertain to my liking. Being declared innocent by Boro he could behave about as suspiciously as he wanted without being suspected of wolvery. And there really was a chance Farael could have been lynched.
And as Saucie pointed out, getting me lynched today is definately the easiest way for the wolf to win.

Unless Kath or Saucie come and beg me to vote them before I leave, morm is probably the one to get my vote today.

[mormegil]

Mormie, lynching me now means that the village loses. But that's what you want anyway, isn't it

I love these threats Agan, they always help me know who I'm dealing with.

I find it interesting the Saucie states that he will be looking at me, which is fair and valid and Agan obivously jumps on and latches herself to that hoping that she will be able to actually get Saucie to vote thus securing her victory.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I love these threats Agan, they always help me know who I'm dealing with.

Me too, they're an essential part of my character.
But that was actually not a threat- I was telling the truth.

Originally Posted by mormie

I find it interesting the Saucie states that he will be looking at me, which is fair and valid and Agan obivously jumps on and latches herself to that hoping that she will be able to actually get Saucie to vote thus securing her victory.

I am hoping to get Saucie to vote to secure my victory, that's true. Because at the moment I strongly feel that he's innocent and you aren't.

edit: xed with Saucie and Kath. What is it that after this quiet a day everyone's posting at the same time?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Day 1 ~ a bit over-general to start with and when he came up with Nerwen being suspicious it does look more like it could have been a plan.

As I explained at the time, I was short on time and suffering a dodgy internet connection. Nerwen leaped out at me, not because of her jumpiness, but because of her seeming excessive caution. Anyway, I hardly think it a basis for suspecting me for being wary of Nerwen. Just about everyone was at the time, as I recall - not least you.

[The Saucepan Man]

Erm - that quote in my previous post was, of course, Kath's, not mine.

[The Saucepan Man]

Zoiks! I don't like that analysis of mormegil at all, Aganzir.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

If we assume the game is continuing because there's still a wolf out there, all of his suspects were innocent.

Given that (Rikae apart) there was one Wolf among nine villagers, that's hardly surprising. And it also assumes that you are not a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Before Day 4 he had been spotting wolves quite nicely, so it'd be no wonder if the wolves had tried to kill him.

That could apply to any one of the four of us left.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And as Saucie pointed out, getting me lynched today is definately the easiest way for the wolf to win.

The again, after my earlier doubts about mormegil, increasing the suspicion on him is just about the best way that you have of winning, if you be a Wolf.

Hmm, now I'm torn ...

[Kath]

I'm half-inclined to agree with Aganzir, I'm still not convinced there's even a baddie left. Even if it seems a thing only Fea seems evil enough to do, remember that she is co-writing this!

Anyway, I've been having a look back over the thread with these three remaining possibilities:

morm
Day 1 ~ argued himself backwards and forwards, 'could be this but whatever', he seemed a bit pessimistic to start with. Did catch Nerwen's jumpiness, I think too early to be a wolf planning to lynch it's fellow, and did set out some suspicions early on. Made a good point about wolf discussions. Mentions some suspicions and defends himself a little, and then votes with his reasoning.

Sauce
Day 1 ~ a bit over-general to start with and when he came up with Nerwen being suspicious it does look more like it could have been a plan. The suspicion just felt a little forced. His voting post was full of analysis that felt normal for him, and innocent too.

Agan
Day 1 ~ not a huge amount of reasoning behind some of her statements but when there is some it looks good. Got most of the wolves this Day and that is either a fantastic piece of luck or something more than that. A post with not a lot of substance follows that. Lists who she'd be happy to vote for, I thought it could be an indication that she wanted to talk about it with wolf pals but then she could have said that through PM so that's bad reasoning. Does vote for someone she suspected, but offered a very quick defense of Nerwen at the same time.

Hmm, damn, I'm not going to have time to do this properly. I may get through the first two or three Days but unlikely further so I'll just have to hope our final wolf was an original one.

Anyway, after looking at the posts from Day 1 Sauce is at the top of my list in terms of what's been written. Let's see how the rest goes.

[Kath]

morm
Day 2 ~ came up with the idea of Mac and looked innocent doing it, especially as it was reasoned. Kept with his original idea through the Day, coming up with good arguments as he went. Gave a somewhat helpful list, though there wasn't quite enough reasoning for my liking. Sideways jump to Nerwen, but with good reasoning. Good review of Nerwen and keeps up his suspicion of Mac as well.

Sauce
Day 2 ~ seemed thoroughly taken aback to have his theory ruined. Sounds a little more genuine than the day before. Found a new theory pretty quickly though and actually has some good points against Agan, sudden switching and all. Said a wolvish Nerwen wouldn't kill Shasta, and again if we had opposing teams he could be quite correct, even if he was wrong about Nerwen's wolvishness. Has picked up on Rikae and Mac early on too, and mentions Agan again. He's been pretty consistent actually which speaks in his favour. A list with more reasoning than morm's, and most of it looked good. I popped up on his suspect list and I suppose I can see why so I won't call him on it. Basically he seemed normal toDay and his vote made sense too, he's not one to vote if it won't do anything.

Agan
Day 2 ~ explains her vote from the Day before and does/doesn't come up with suspicion over Rikae. She does go quite strongly against many of our now known wolves and if she is one it does lend strength to the opposing teams theory. Votes Mac, which does seem a little bold for a wolf when she starts the vote for someone many are suspicious of and would happily vote for when she's already lost a member of her team. I don't think she would play such a bold wolf, except that as the Days have gone by I've been more convinced not all the wolves have been working together. And actually she might well play that bold a wolf, especially when more people were suspicious of Mac than her and it might have helped clear her name.

So at the end of Day 2 it's Agan at the top of my suspect list. Now, I don't think I have time to go through any more Day's properly so what I'm going to do is look at toDay and see what I think.

[Aganzir]

The problem is that we know both morm and Saucie were innocent on Day 2... The cursed was turned only after that.

[Aganzir]

I don't think I have much to say at the moment, so hey ho here we go.

++ mormegil

[Kath]

I know Agan, as I said, no preconceptions, no knowledge of what happened later. That is confusing me beyond belief and I haven't been able to get a fix on anyone, so I'm trying a new way.

morm
Final Day ~ while I don't agree that the narration indicates the wolf is the last baddie I do think he seems innocent. He admits his suspicions are based on feelings and as I have the same problem sometimes I find it easy to sympathise. Gives a thorough analysis of Agan and has got reasons now for his earlier feelings, and pretty good ones too, except that if Agan is a wolf I am inclined to think she was original rather than cursed. Votes Agan, and did go through things quite thoroughly and that feels innocent to me. morm is quite clearly convinced of Agan's guilt and so his later posts reflect that.

Sauce
Final Day ~ poked me and morm for 'jumping' and asks for deliberation. I think he has received that now and though he was probably right to mention it in general I don't think it what's morm or I were doing. Does come up with some good points about morm except that I disagree with his points about Aganzir which make some of the basis of his suspicion of morm.

Agan
Final Day ~ I don't entirely understand what she says at the end of her post about how morm might be the cursed even though it's Boro who changed in style. I don't like her jokey comments but that's personal. She says that morm has been spotting wolves well but so has she, so she's as likely a one to be targeted as him.

Well, after all that I'm actually a bit torn between Sauce and Agan. Agan is higher on my suspicion list though, and it's getting late, so:

++AGAN

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Kath

I think he has received that now ...

Yes, thanks. And it has helped me to make up my mind.

For better or for worse ...

++mormegil

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Kath

I don't entirely understand what she says at the end of her post about how morm might be the cursed even though it's Boro who changed in style.

It could quite clearly be seen that Boro had some information that wasn't accessible to everyone. I don't know what the wolves might have thought it was, but it definately meant something that he declared morm innocent. The wolves may have wanted to kill morm just because of that- and find him the cursed.

I can't really put that any better but it's quite clear in my mind.