Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[Volo]

Yeah, it is confirmed. I talked with Aganzir and she said that Mac is a Wolf.

[Durelin]

What be...happening? Wow, I thought the votes would be a lot more spread out toDay... Ooh, and I'm *creepy*...

Sorry, I had a busier morning than I expected. So I have like...15 minutes to make up my mind?

Guess I'll have to just vote for my 'comrade in wolfyness'.

++Macalaure

If we're wrong, we're pretty screwed. And Rikae's going to be busy. If we're right, I might actually give Rikae the benefit of the doubt for once. Maybe... *shifty eye movement*

Edit: Crossed with a lot of people... Rather boring confession, Mac.

[Rikae]

A few quotes from Durelin:

Originally Posted by Durelin

Guess I'll have to just vote for my 'comrade in wolfyness'.

++Macalaure

If we're wrong, we're pretty screwed. And Rikae's going to be busy. If we're right, I might actually give Rikae the benefit of the doubt for once. Maybe... *shifty eye movement*

This looks to me like she, knowing Mac is innocent, prepares to use his death to attack another ordo. Of course, this depends on my knowledge that I'm an ordo.

Edit: Crossed with a lot of people... Rather boring confession, Mac.

Of all the responses, this looks the most to me like that of someone who knew Mac was lying.

After Mac admits he's an ordo after all:

Originally Posted by Durelin

Uh oh...Mac, I feel more sorry for you than this village.

(Incidentally, she had good reason to... and Mac and I are now considering not playing WW together anymore because of it.)
Anyway, this response also looks like it could come from someone who had prior knowledge... it's not merely an expression of surprise, but a thought-out response.

Also, note that Mac found Durelin, Nogrod and Menel's responses most wolfish. Mac isn't infallible, but he has good instincts.
More in a minute...

[Rikae]

Oops, sorry, that was Nogrod, Menel and Mith, with Greenie and Durelin as his top suspects.

[Rikae]

Looking at them further, I'd say:
Nerwen's expressions of surprise and asking what Volo is if Mac is a wolf look pretty genuine.

Nogrod actually doesn't react to Mac's confession at all, now that I look again (I thought he was, but that's a reaction to the retraction of it.) He votes for Mac in an uncertain manner and then, finding he was innocent, tells people to look at Lommy and I the next day.

Menel also doesn't directly address it, but responds (I think) to Nerwen's question about Mac and Volo being wolves together.

I think that ordos, upon "learning" that Mac was a wolf, would be likely to gloat as Greenie, Nerwen and I did. I know that Greenie and I were innocent, at any rate, so I'm inclined to think Nerwen is as well. I could be wrong... it could be faked... but I think it would be easier for a wolf just to stay away from that discussion.

Actually, I'm inclined to think it more and more likely that Lommy has rather artificially made Nogrod a focus today... just the sort of thing one might expect from a wolf if one or both of her comrades are in the spotlight.
Yes, it does make sense that Nogrod would make the kill choices we've seen out of his desire to keep talkative players around, but Lommy's later remarks on Greenie's schedule, and the disclaimer that she doesn't want people going after Nogrod on that basis, look fishy. "So-and-so looks suspicious but don't go after him" is a classic wolf stance.

*sigh*

Although I realise this is a critical time, I have a lot of work to catch up on here and really should give this a rest for awhile. I would prefer to cast my vote after a thorough look at every living player, if I get the chance.

EDIT: Quadruple post, go me. (So much for not bothering...)

[Nerwen]

Volo: Has voted only for known innocents. Pattern of trying to vote said innocents without taking responsibility. Extremely paranoid– look how he’s been going after me ever since what I exclained was an early vote on Day Two.

Well, he did back off (#310), when I said that maybe I’d been wrong about him– he says that this is because I suspected Durelin... but later, when both Rikae and I started talking about her, and I said I found her “positively creepy”, he jumps in with a very strong defence of her (#320).

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.

I especially don’t like the way the heated tone suddenly changes to a very weak "suspicion" in the last line.


(#322 & 326). Oh look, suddenly I’m back on the Dark Side.


(#322) Previously thought Mac suspicious, now he thinks he’s being framed.


(#331) Now I’m so evil that you can judge other people’s innocence by whether they suspect me or not (making Lommy and Lily suspicious).


A few posts later (#342) he makes the now infamous statement:

It [a Mac-Durelin-Volo trio] is possible, yet no more than that.

Once again, people are innocent or not according to whether they suspect me.

Still thinks Mac is probably being framed, but that his death “would reveal the most today”.


#351. Gives a rather weird explanation of his post:

Sure it is possible, I have just as big a chance of becoming a Wolf as any. Then again, I might say that everything is possible, and only possible, but inevitable. But that would be already physics and not WW.

I mean, I can understand the argument, but still...


#356. Votes Macalaure– this was the decisive vote: “Oh well, there's no other option. No way can anybody but Mac be lynched toDay. Might as well be him, although this is such a mess that anybody here can be a Wolf.”

I mean, look at this, will you? He held off until four people had voted Mac– then bang! Mac’s dead

...and, in his comments, he seems to be trying very hard to cover himself– as if he knows Mac is innocent.


#359. Further explains his “possible” comment, ending

I must say that we encountered a rather amusing half-a-paradox.

This to me is the reaction of somebody who– very suddenly– isn’t the least bit concerned about what’s happening in the game. Very odd, that. Mac had just been killed and we didn’t know his role.


#360.

I love this game.

That’s all. That looks like gloating to me. When I read that post I thought, “Uh-oh... I think the wrong person just got it..”


So that’s the case for Volo. The case against, as stated by various people, is that he’s behaving too wolfishly to actually be a wolf. Yeah, right. It's starting to get so that the safest wolf-tactic is to jump up and down screaming, "Lynch me! I'm a wolf!"

I think there's a very strong case for Volo and Durelin being wolves together– and if it's only one of them, I think it's Volo.

I really need to re-think on Lommy, now that we know that Mac was innocent.

EDIT: fixed spelling.
EDIT 2: ditto.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think there's a very strong case for Volo and Durelin being wolves together– and if it's only one of them, I think it's Volo.

Considering what you've just said, I'd agree... but if just one is, I think it's Durelin.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Lommy's later remarks on Greenie's schedule, and the disclaimer that she doesn't want people going after Nogrod on that basis, look fishy. "So-and-so looks suspicious but don't go after him" is a classic wolf stance.

Yes, the relations between those two toDay– have they even mentioned each other on previous Days?– don't look good. But I'm not liking Menel either. I wish he'd stop parroting Nogrod's stuff about me "suspecting known innocents"– once again, those quotes were taken out of context– I was looking at people and putting the cases for and against their being wolves. Nogrod quotes only my "for" cases, making me look like I'm suspecting everyone.

And then, Rikae. She went after Mac yesterDay, and was fairly instrumental in getting him lynched. Yet I think she's more likely an ordo for the same reason she thinks I am– her reactions after Mac "confessed" look innocent to me. (Or am I just being suckered?)

EDIT: Sentence fragment.

[Durelin]

I am almost too confused and depressed to care, but not quite. I wish I was, and didn't have to waste my time on this...

YesterDay I was wolfish because I seemed to be wolfish with Mac, toDay...?

Besides tossing me in some lists and stuff, you didn't seem to think me too creepy (except for saying you felt like Lommy and I were "laughing behind our posts") until suddenly after Volo asked you for your opinion on me:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I think she's creepy and wolfy and has been so for a while.
Actually, although I voted for Mac, I think lynching Durelin toDay could also be a good idea...

Your only *analysis* on me is placing me and Mac together as wolves. So I really don't know what you're referring back to on me.

As for my response to Mac's confession - in the heat of the moment I dared to feel smug, but no, nothing more. Saying something like "YAYz, we got him!" like Greenie or Nerwen...that is so far from...me. I'm sorry, I am not an energetic person. When I was a wolf, and faked a "yay!" after one of my fellows was lynched, everyone leapt on it so fast...and they were right to, because it was so obviously faked.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Anyway, this response also looks like it could come from someone who had prior knowledge... it's not merely an expression of surprise, but a thought-out response.

I started getting concerned about you and Mac after I tossed out that comment about you two buddying up to each other and stuff. I really felt bad about that one. It felt like playing dirty and trying to put you two at odds. I suffer from Catholic-guilt...if I feel guilty about something, that's going to show up in any 'reacting' I do. I guess now that will seem like I'm trying to get on your soft side or something, but I know you're smarter than to let that happen, so trust me, I wouldn't bother with that.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Why would an innocent have any reason to doubt or even discuss the possibility?

Because Mac was already being so bitter about people suspecting him? Because Volo and others have been known to "confess" they are a wolf out of frustration or...something? Part of the problem with this village I believe is that there has not been enough skepticism. People have assumed the innocence of people such as Lommy and Mith for practically the entire game. The trend of making promises and trusting that someone is not a wolf because "when they are a wolf they do this" has bothered me from the start and quite probably has helped put us in the situation we are in now.

Originally Posted by Rikae

know this won't probably be believed, but the fact is I could not, and would not, try to get him lynched if I were a wolf and he were innocent.

As you said yourself:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, I don't think we're in a position to disregard anything at this point, Lommy.

Which I quite agree on.

I also would like to mention to everyone that those of us who are innocent need to not be spread out in our votes. We have all three wolves still alive, and since they only need an innocent lynched toDay to win, there is no reason for them to hesitate to all three vote for the same person. That means we need everyone to talk, too. I'll do my best to be around.

Edit: Crossed with Nerwen x2

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Durelin

YesterDay I was wolfish because I seemed to be wolfish with Mac, toDay...?

Nope. Yesterday you were wolfish, as was Mac, so I analyzed you both together to see if it were possible you both were.

Your only *analysis* on me is placing me and Mac together as wolves. So I really don't know what you're referring back to on me.

I mentioned suspecting you. Hang on, I'll go back and quote myself in a minute. You're right, though, I didn't analyze you. I didn't analyze anyone, actually... just interactions between various people.

As for my response to Mac's confession - in the heat of the moment I dared to feel smug, but no, nothing more. Saying something like "YAYz, we got him!" like Greenie or Nerwen...that is so far from...me. I'm sorry, I am not an energetic person. When I was a wolf, and faked a "yay!" after one of my fellows was lynched, everyone leapt on it so fast...and they were right to, because it was so obviously faked.

So, last time you did that as a wolf you were caught, but this time you knew better?

Oh, I've taken the liberty of translating your last paragraph:

Originally Posted by Durelin

I also would like to mention to everyone that those of us who are wolves need to not be spread out in our votes. We have all three wolves still alive, and since we only need an innocent lynched toDay to win, there is no reason for us to hesitate to all three vote for the same person. That means we need everyone to talk, too. I'll do my best to be around.

[Nerwen]

Rikae, after seeing your last post I take back what I said about you not giving reasons. I still think Volo is the more likely of the two to be a wolf.