Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Rikae · 03-03-2008, 10:34 AM

One think I find especially creepy about toDay is that, just when everybody should have a wide focus (and just when it's easy to do so, with only 8 players), people seem to have divided themselves into groups and narrowed their focus, each, to pretty much a single person.
Lommy and Nogrod's behavior toDay I've already talked about... I get the feeling one or both of them are trying to absorb all my attention in their "duel" as well, to the exclusion of all else.
Nerwen and Menel's focus on Volo (and indirect defense of Durelin, while agreeing that she is suspicious) is another case.
Volo's latest post basically agrees with me. The cynic in me says "of course he agrees with you, you've been defending him." Previously, he seemed as fixated on Nerwen as she was on him.

Okaaay - possible connections. If you think I'm wrong, please point it out and why. I don't want to come to any erroneous conclusions. For the sake of completeness, I will include myself. It is not possible I'm a wolf from my perspective, but from yours (four of you, anyway) it is.

I do not think Mith is a wolf. If she is, she is going to get my vote on Day 1 from now on.

Nogrod:
Good chance of being a wolf with:
Menel
Could be a wolf with:
Nerwen
Durelin
Less likely to be a wolf with:
Lommy
Volo
Mith
Unlikely to be a wolf with:
Rikae

Nerwen:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Menel
Durelin
Could be a wolf with:
Lommy
Nogrod
Rikae (or am I likely? I've tended to agree with her. Sorry, can't be objective there - make your own call.)
Unlikely wolf with:
Volo
Mith

Menel:
Likely to be wolf with:
Nogrod
Nerwen
Durelin
Could be a wolf with:
Lommy
Unlikely a wolf with:
Volo
Rikae
Mith

Volo:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Rikae
Could be a wolf (more or less likely) with:
Nogrod
Lommy
Unlikely to be a wolf with:
Menel
Nerwen (especially)
Durelin (Judging by Menel and Nerwen's behavior)
Mith

Lommy:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Nobody in particular (that I've seen so far)
Could be wolf with:
Nogrod
Nerwen
Volo
Rikae
Menel (actually, slightly more so because of his Day 1 defense of her)
Durelin
Mith
Unlikely a wolf with:
Nobody

Durelin:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Nerwen
Menel
Could be a wolf with:
Nogrod
Lommy
Mith
Unlikely to be a wolf with:
Volo (indirectly)
Rikae

Rikae:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Volo
Could be a wolf with:
Lommy
Nerwen
Mith
Unlikely a wolf with:
Durelin
Menel
Nogrod

Mith:
Likely to be a wolf with:
Nobody in particular
Could be a wolf with:
Lommy
Rikae
Durelin
Unlikely to be a wolf with:
Nogrod
Nerwen
Volo
Menel

Okay, as far as I could see, Lommy could be a wolf with pretty much anyone, but doesn't look particularly like a wolf with anyone, makign her a risky choice for toDay's lynch. Volo is more unlikely to be a wolf simply because he doesn't seem to have a possible wolf-pack aside from Lommy or Nogrod and I, and we are unlikely to be wolves together. It could be that his companions have decided to sacrifice him, but would they do so with victory so close? In that case, Nerwen's attack on him looks innocentish because it began yesterday, Menel's less so. Nerwen and Menel may be wolves or Menel and Volo, but I don't think Nerwen and Volo are both.
Menel looks to have the most possible wolf-connections to me, and therefore looks the most likely to be a wolf on this scale.

EDIT: X'd with everything since Lommy's post 472

Thinlómien · 03-03-2008, 10:42 AM

Am I missing somethign really obvious - why would it be so inprobable that you and Nogrod are wolves together?

Also

Quote:

Originally Posted by the list of could be wolf with Lommy

Menel (actually, slightly more so because of his Day 1 defense of her)

His what?

Nerwen · 03-03-2008, 10:51 AM

I second that.

Rikae, Menel attacked her on Day 1!

And I don't understand the reasoning behind much of that list.

Rikae · 03-03-2008, 10:51 AM

Because I've been arguing he's a wolf all day and will vote for him if he's up for lynching? Sure, it could be wolf-on-wolf, but this would be a silly time for it indeed.

Menel accused Mac of jumping on you on day one. (This is odd behavior on his part, though, too, coming after his bizarre jump on you for "abusing" Gwath.)

EDIT: Crossed with Nerwen, in reply to Lommy.

Nerwen · 03-03-2008, 10:55 AM

I see what you mean, now– but I'd call that an attack on Mac rather than a defense of Lommy. Whereas Menel really went after Lommy on Day 1– I can't see them being wolves together.

Rikae · 03-03-2008, 10:57 AM

Actually, I have a paper to finish in the next three hours and, as crucial as toDay is, I will flunk out of college if I don't finish this paper. As long as I'm engaged with this game, I can't do anything else, so I am going to vote and forget it.
Besides, I am as sure as I think I can be. I think Nogrod is a wolf, too, but if so, this is just about certain, and if not, this is still likely.

++Menel

"To whatever end"

EDIT: X'd with Nerwen and Volo. Yes, Nerwen, I suppose you're right - it is unlikely (and thus, I'd say, unlikely Lommy's a wolf.)

Thinlómien · 03-03-2008, 11:03 AM

Rikae, I would so much have preferred you to vote Nogrod... I do not think Menel is a wolf unless Nogrod's too (which does not seem unlikely though). Now let's just hope you're correct. And while I understand now what you said about Menel defending me, I think it's odd that you say it's impossible that you and Nogrod are wolves together yet it is possible, according to you, that I and Nogrod are...

Rikae · 03-03-2008, 11:11 AM

Like father, like daughter?

Something about your attack on him (and his on you) looked possibly preplanned to me.
Still, you look more innocent than he (or Menel) does.

At any rate, if you want to lynch Nogrod, there are still four innocent votes with which to do so. I've made my case against him and would like to see him lynched as much as Menel.

NOW, that paper.

EDIT: X'd with everybody since Lommy's post 487. Volo and Nerwen jumped on that a little too quick...

Rikae · 03-03-2008, 11:23 AM

Oh man - Volo is clearly gloating, and why does Nerwen vote along with her top suspect? Menel, Lommy, Nogrod, Mith, Durelin - four of you might be innocent - you can still lynch Volo...

Nogrod · 03-03-2008, 11:24 AM

*darn these failing net-accesses*

Whoa!

Three votes for Menel in such a short period?

Okay. If we have it right it's all fine and dandy but if we haven't it's a village loss.

Unless there are two wolves with the voters...

EDIT: clearly X'd with a lot...

Nogrod · 03-03-2008, 11:10 AM

Before this gets heated...

Sorry Lommy. It was not my intention to be insulting. Please try to see it this way.

I have a suspicion you're a wolf trying to come up with a case against me - and as I'm innocent you need to fabricate it. After a few posts you see everything's working fine and are pleased with yourself. And you remember: Greenie talked about not having time to play toDay! That would suit the logic you had yourself tried to tie me into just perfectly. Now it would be a bit nasty to use that kind of RL material - none the less as it's invented - but you could always add a disclaimer that "don't use this against Noggie" as the suspicion has been aroused already. And even if you were innocent I don't think using that kind of argument against someone you aren't sure with is a well-thought of idea. It kind of goes against the spirit of the game. So that's the reason I got a bit carried away. Sorry for that.

I'm tending to think you then just forgot the deadline-thing altogether as you just got that bright idea and got a bit carried away with the ingenuity of it. And now you have to defend yourself because I managed to point the case was flawed.

If for some reason you are innocent try to think it from my point of view. If you're a wolf, then we'd surely do well to lynch you.

---

I see things are going on... I'll be back after reading the latest...

03-03-2008, 10:51 AM	#3
Nerwen Wisest of the Noldor Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: ˙˙˙ssɐןƃ ƃuıʞooן ǝɥʇ ɥƃnoɹɥʇ Posts: 6,694	I second that. Rikae, Menel attacked her on Day 1! And I don't understand the reasoning behind much of that list. __________________ "Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo.

03-03-2008, 10:55 AM	#5
Nerwen Wisest of the Noldor Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: ˙˙˙ssɐןƃ ƃuıʞooן ǝɥʇ ɥƃnoɹɥʇ Posts: 6,694	I see what you mean, now– but I'd call that an attack on Mac rather than a defense of Lommy. Whereas Menel really went after Lommy on Day 1– I can't see them being wolves together. __________________ "Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo.

03-03-2008, 11:03 AM	#7
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	Rikae, I would so much have preferred you to vote Nogrod... I do not think Menel is a wolf unless Nogrod's too (which does not seem unlikely though). Now let's just hope you're correct. And while I understand now what you said about Menel defending me, I think it's odd that you say it's impossible that you and Nogrod are wolves together yet it is possible, according to you, that I and Nogrod are... __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

03-03-2008, 11:24 AM	#10
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	darn these failing net-accesses Whoa! Three votes for Menel in such a short period? Okay. If we have it right it's all fine and dandy but if we haven't it's a village loss. Unless there are two wolves with the voters... EDIT: clearly X'd with a lot... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

03-03-2008, 11:10 AM	#11
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Before this gets heated... Sorry Lommy. It was not my intention to be insulting. Please try to see it this way. I have a suspicion you're a wolf trying to come up with a case against me - and as I'm innocent you need to fabricate it. After a few posts you see everything's working fine and are pleased with yourself. And you remember: Greenie talked about not having time to play toDay! That would suit the logic you had yourself tried to tie me into just perfectly. Now it would be a bit nasty to use that kind of RL material - none the less as it's invented - but you could always add a disclaimer that "don't use this against Noggie" as the suspicion has been aroused already. And even if you were innocent I don't think using that kind of argument against someone you aren't sure with is a well-thought of idea. It kind of goes against the spirit of the game. So that's the reason I got a bit carried away. Sorry for that. I'm tending to think you then just forgot the deadline-thing altogether as you just got that bright idea and got a bit carried away with the ingenuity of it. And now you have to defend yourself because I managed to point the case was flawed. If for some reason you are innocent try to think it from my point of view. If you're a wolf, then we'd surely do well to lynch you. --- I see things are going on... I'll be back after reading the latest... __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

03-03-2008, 10:34 AM	#1
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	One think I find especially creepy about toDay is that, just when everybody should have a wide focus (and just when it's easy to do so, with only 8 players), people seem to have divided themselves into groups and narrowed their focus, each, to pretty much a single person. Lommy and Nogrod's behavior toDay I've already talked about... I get the feeling one or both of them are trying to absorb all my attention in their "duel" as well, to the exclusion of all else. Nerwen and Menel's focus on Volo (and indirect defense of Durelin, while agreeing that she is suspicious) is another case. Volo's latest post basically agrees with me. The cynic in me says "of course he agrees with you, you've been defending him." Previously, he seemed as fixated on Nerwen as she was on him. Okaaay - possible connections. If you think I'm wrong, please point it out and why. I don't want to come to any erroneous conclusions. For the sake of completeness, I will include myself. It is not possible I'm a wolf from my perspective, but from yours (four of you, anyway) it is. I do not think Mith is a wolf. If she is, she is going to get my vote on Day 1 from now on. Nogrod: Good chance of being a wolf with: Menel Could be a wolf with: Nerwen Durelin Less likely to be a wolf with: Lommy Volo Mith Unlikely to be a wolf with: Rikae Nerwen: Likely to be a wolf with: Menel Durelin Could be a wolf with: Lommy Nogrod Rikae (or am I likely? I've tended to agree with her. Sorry, can't be objective there - make your own call.) Unlikely wolf with: Volo Mith Menel: Likely to be wolf with: Nogrod Nerwen Durelin Could be a wolf with: Lommy Unlikely a wolf with: Volo Rikae Mith Volo: Likely to be a wolf with: Rikae Could be a wolf (more or less likely) with: Nogrod Lommy Unlikely to be a wolf with: Menel Nerwen (especially) Durelin (Judging by Menel and Nerwen's behavior) Mith Lommy: Likely to be a wolf with: Nobody in particular (that I've seen so far) Could be wolf with: Nogrod Nerwen Volo Rikae Menel (actually, slightly more so because of his Day 1 defense of her) Durelin Mith Unlikely a wolf with: Nobody Durelin: Likely to be a wolf with: Nerwen Menel Could be a wolf with: Nogrod Lommy Mith Unlikely to be a wolf with: Volo (indirectly) Rikae Rikae: Likely to be a wolf with: Volo Could be a wolf with: Lommy Nerwen Mith Unlikely a wolf with: Durelin Menel Nogrod Mith: Likely to be a wolf with: Nobody in particular Could be a wolf with: Lommy Rikae Durelin Unlikely to be a wolf with: Nogrod Nerwen Volo Menel Okay, as far as I could see, Lommy could be a wolf with pretty much anyone, but doesn't look particularly like a wolf with anyone, makign her a risky choice for toDay's lynch. Volo is more unlikely to be a wolf simply because he doesn't seem to have a possible wolf-pack aside from Lommy or Nogrod and I, and we are unlikely to be wolves together. It could be that his companions have decided to sacrifice him, but would they do so with victory so close? In that case, Nerwen's attack on him looks innocentish because it began yesterday, Menel's less so. Nerwen and Menel may be wolves or Menel and Volo, but I don't think Nerwen and Volo are both. Menel looks to have the most possible wolf-connections to me, and therefore looks the most likely to be a wolf on this scale. EDIT: X'd with everything since Lommy's post 472

03-03-2008, 10:57 AM	#6
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Actually, I have a paper to finish in the next three hours and, as crucial as toDay is, I will flunk out of college if I don't finish this paper. As long as I'm engaged with this game, I can't do anything else, so I am going to vote and forget it. Besides, I am as sure as I think I can be. I think Nogrod is a wolf, too, but if so, this is just about certain, and if not, this is still likely. ++Menel "To whatever end" EDIT: X'd with Nerwen and Volo. Yes, Nerwen, I suppose you're right - it is unlikely (and thus, I'd say, unlikely Lommy's a wolf.)

03-03-2008, 11:11 AM	#8
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Like father, like daughter? Something about your attack on him (and his on you) looked possibly preplanned to me. Still, you look more innocent than he (or Menel) does. At any rate, if you want to lynch Nogrod, there are still four innocent votes with which to do so. I've made my case against him and would like to see him lynched as much as Menel. NOW, that paper. EDIT: X'd with everybody since Lommy's post 487. Volo and Nerwen jumped on that a little too quick...

03-03-2008, 11:23 AM	#9
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Oh man - Volo is clearly gloating, and why does Nerwen vote along with her top suspect? Menel, Lommy, Nogrod, Mith, Durelin - four of you might be innocent - you can still lynch Volo...

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