Werewolf XLVI: Getting Back to Basics

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Kath

Legate - some random stuff, and then it's suspicion of Nog and Mith which is immediately backtracked, especially over Nog. Again then with Lommy as well. So having stated Mith, Nog and Lommy are suspect he then immediately turns his statement round on all three, yet still ends up with Mith in his suspicion list. Looks at Gwath but makes no sure decision.

I don't like the simple and nothing-saying analysis of me, but whatever. How should I say that... if I were a wolf and wanted to lynch me, I would surely find better way to express evidence why I am guilty. But this is not like it. I thought about a possiblilty that she may be the wolf and not making direct accusations, simply hoping to get me down. And for example there could be other reasons, like that Gwath is a fellow wolf and she wants to bring forward another lynchee the people might eventually vote for. I may be of course overcomplicating it. But anyway. Also...

Originally Posted by Kath

Mith - started off the thread very amusingly, but little of substance. Claims we won't get any double revelations, but I think it's still possible, one should never underestimate the deviosity of werewolf players. On the statistics again, something I am rarely a fan of so early on. Is clearly having fun though. Playing for fun rather than to win, which suggests innocent to me. Some suspicion of Nog.

This actually troubles me more. Thinking of the former, Kath did not have much time as she said, so whatever. But this? There have been looots of people who obviously "played for fun rather than to win" or such, but Kath never called it like that except for Mith's case. So, is she making a defense of fellow wolf? If Mith is a wolf, Kath may be as well?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Ha! Another Frollo!

And stop saying that, I always read "Frodo"

EDIT: X-ed since my last post.

[Nogrod]

Just off to the kitchen...

Volo -> Volo
Lhuna -> Gwath
Kath -> Legate
Nerwen -> Lhuna

Legate looks better right now and Gwath's "myths" feel more reasonable than not.

I might go for Lhuna today based on reasons I gave in #41.

Also...

Originally Posted by Aganzir

A fair point about Lhuna not reacting to your suspicion. But I'm not sure what you meant by saying she didn't state a reason for suspecting you. Do you mean she didn't say that in the post in which she declared you as one of her top suspects, or that she didn't give proper reasons for you being either a sneaky wolf or a trigger-happy innocent?

What I meant was that she mentioned myself as one of her top-candidates without giving a reason why was that. Of the others (Gwath and Nerwen) she made points about. Saying one is "a sneaky wolf or a trigger-happy innocent" can hardly be counted as an argument as such... without further reasoning.

And she's too good a player to just retaliate a suspicion for suspicion if innocent.

EDIT: X'd with a few + added Nerwen's vote

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What I meant was that she mentioned myself as one of her top-candidates without giving a reason why was that. Of the others (Gwath and Nerwen) she made points about. Saying one is "a sneaky wolf or a trigger-happy innocent" can hardly be counted as an argument as such... without further reasoning.

Maybe because she hadn't said anything about them earlier.

Gwathy, see my post #49, I asked you something. Last game you were a wolf you got too far by ignoring suspicions and questions, and I won't let it happen again.

I think it's rather hasty to say Volo looks like a wolf because of his vote. My opinion is that he's crazy enough to do it even as innocent, but even if someone else had done it I wouldn't consider it so suspicious.
I would say it's strange indeed that there's such an ado about it...

I am likely to vote either Legate, Gwath or Lhuna today.

edit: xed with two Gwathys

[Gwathagor]

Sloppy reading on my part, sorry.

My point was that it seems strange to claim that wolves don't make plans. After all, they DO conspire for 24 hours.

[Mithalwen]

Mind you they (I assume) are as much in the dark as us about gifteds. They can't be certain they haven't been picked as a first night seer dream. As a consequence they have perhaps increased dilemma about mentioning their packmates names - not mentioining is as potentially incriminating as the reverse. I remember in my second mod-game it was early doors because Boroseer88effectively bagged two wolves in one. Anyway I have an idea who I am voting for but I shall keep that to myslef pending a swift reread.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Sloppy reading on my part, sorry.

My point was that it seems strange to claim that wolves don't make plans. After all, they DO conspire for 24 hours.

No problem.

My point was that they often make less plans than the villagers think - I've been in a pack which came up with brilliant plans, but more often I've also been in packs where there wasn't much planning and we just decided to do what felt best in the days. And therefore what villagers think an obvious wolf plot isn't always that for the wolves, who often don't have as much experience with plotting as villagers think.

So the possibility of three good players making an "obvious" wolf plan without the intent to double bluff shouldn't be completely ruled out either.

I'm not sure if this makes any sense to anyone.

edit: xed with Mith

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

No problem.

My point was that they often make less plans than the villagers think - I've been in a pack which came up with brilliant plans, but more often I've also been in packs where there wasn't much planning and we just decided to do what felt best in the days. And therefore what villagers think an obvious wolf plot isn't always that for the wolves, who often don't have as much experience with plotting as villagers think.

So the possibility of three good players making an "obvious" wolf plan without the intent to double bluff shouldn't be completely ruled out either.

I'm not sure if this makes any sense to anyone.

edit: xed with Mith

So your point is: people have a tendency to over-analyze.

[Gwathagor]

Volo -> Volo
Lhuna -> Gwath
Kath -> Legate
Nerwen -> Lhuna
Gwath -> Lhuna
Mith -> Nog
Nog -> Lhuna
TEW -> Aganzir

Everyone else?

[Gwathagor]

I don't like the way Nogrod directs the flow of suspicion with his all-encompassing posts. It seems very controlling to me, like he's some kind of master-wolf. Or a mafia boss.

Lhuna's vote against me seems flippant ("that's the way the cookie crumbles").

Volo..... based on his self-vote looks, to me, more like a remarkably bold wolf than just a crazy villager. The most obvious conclusion that we're going to draw is that he must be innocent, because no sane wolf would do something so stupid. Right? So, Volo has now established himself as having a reputation for innocence without making enemies by voting against someone else.

This puts Volo at the top of my list with Nogrod and Lhuna.

Everybody else is mildly suspicious - which means that no one is. Ha.

I want to hear more from Oddwen and The Elf Warrior. We have lynched people for silence in the past...and we could do it again. Of course, silence usually is the safest defense.

EDIT: Wow. Crossed with everyone since/including Legate.

[Gwathagor]

Yikes better vote and avoid that last minute rush. Nothing good ever comes out of last minutes rushes.

++Lhunardawen

At first I was going to vote against Volo, but I decided I needed more substantial evidence. Maybe tomorrow.

[Gwathagor]

I messed up, we still have another hour until DL. Sorry.

[Thinlómien]

I go for a nice evening walk and what do I see when I come back? A flood of posts and even a couple of votes. Great.

Nerwen looks quite reasonable and innocent to me. Which, according to my previous experiences of her, doesn't mean anything. I hope to hear more of her toMorrow.

Legate seems more innocent now. He seems reasonable and posts a lot without saying anything that seems very wolvish, so I'm not very alarmed about him anymore. Besides although I did not understand his reply to me considering the Lhuna-Gwath thing it seemed quite innocent.

Kath seems like her normal self - the same self she is whether she's innocent or not. Her behaviour doesn't alarm me, anyway, so I'm not very alarmed. (Wow, that was smartly phrased...) I don't agree with her logic all the time, though, and it startles me how she lists five people as innocent and four as guilty without blinking an eye and cheerily says she's not sure about others. Her way of expressing herself is quite black.and-white and slightly creeps me out. Hmm... seems like there's something alarming after all.

Originally Posted by Kath

Lommy - I am your semi-nemesis? I was not aware of this!

I said ex-semi-nemesis... besides I think I might have misused the word but I think we used to suspect each other all the time but not anymore...

Originally Posted by Agan

Given their interaction, I might be inclined to consider Lhuna and Legate fellow wolves.

That crossed my mind too.

Gwath the mythbuster looks more innocent than he did a while ago.


edit: xed with Gwath, Agan, Gwath, Mith and Agan

[Mithalwen]

++Nogrod

Talks a lot without sticking his neck out. A few people have said that one of us must be a wolf. I know it ain't me (and that this won't look brilliant if I am wrong).

He seems to be attacking then backing off.... and ... well there have been a couple of games where I haven't backed similar hunches and rued it.

[Aganzir]

Volo -> Volo
Lhuna -> Gwath
Kath -> Legate
Nerwen -> Lhuna
Gwath -> Lhuna
Mith -> Nog

7 (or more likely 6, since sally won't probably appear) votes still to come.

I might be willing to vote for Legate, but it doesn't really matter to me whether it's him, Lhuna or Gwath who dies today since I suspect them all quite equally.

[Aganzir]

Actually I think Lhuna's death might give us the most insight... At least when it comes to Gwath, Legate and Volo's innocence or guilt.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Talks a lot without sticking his neck out.

If you think I haven't sticked my neck out can you please tell me who has? I've tried my best today. Sorry if that's not enough to you. With that argument I think we should have lynched a host of people...

But that's not the main point. The point is why do you chose that one to back your vote for me? Because you hadn't a better one as there isn't one because you are a wolfie who needs to find something to say to accompany your vote? Sorry Mith but you didn't make yourself look any better with that... on the contrary.

Okay. We share the computer - Lommy and me - so I'll give it to her now and vote for

++ Lhuna

EDIT: X'd with Agan X2

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If you think I haven't sticked my neck out can you please tell me who has? I've tried my best today. Sorry if that's not enough to you. With that argument I think we should have lynched a host of people...

But that's not the main point. The point is why do you chose that one to back your vote for me? Because you hadn't a better one as there isn't one because you are a wolfie who needs to find something to say to accompany your vote? Sorry Mith but you didn't make yourself look any better with that... on the contrary.

Fighting talk Nogrod,
You want another reason? Voting very late is a wolvish trait with you I've found... not falling for it again....

[Nogrod]

I'd hope to hear more from Oddwen and the Elf Warrior. And Mith & Legate could be more open with their thoughts as well... or are you people just leaving all options open for the last minute madness to vote in a way that suits your ends?

If nothing better comes forwards I'd be ready to check this Lhuna - Volo connection by voting Lhuna as I see you others downplay Volo's actions toDay.

Yes I know Volo might do something like that if innocent as well but that self-vote at that kind of situation screams more a wolf to me than not. Gwath indeed put it quite nicely:

Originally Posted by Gwath

The most obvious conclusion that we're going to draw is that he must be innocent, because no sane wolf would do something so stupid. Right? So, Volo has now established himself as having a reputation for innocence without making enemies by voting against someone else.

Although I must say that seeing someone accompanying my argumets is one of the most suspicious things I know in WW... so I'm not going to trust you more for that Gwath. And the same goes for the Elf Warrior. Saying openly you think I'm innocent doesn't make me think the same of you even if it rubs me the right way like Gwath's agreement about the suspiciousness of Volo & Lhuna.

EDIT: X'd with Mith

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'd hope to hear more from Oddwen and the Elf Warrior. And Mith & Legate could be more open with their thoughts as well... or are you people just leaving all options open for the last minute madness to vote in a way that suits your ends?

I actually outlined my thoughts and it's not more concrete than that. I am pondering Lhuna right now at this very moment, and you too, Nog, since your latter posts seem to unnerve me more and more. And also since Mith voted you. If it's not a wolf-on-wolf vote... I think I would leave Gwath out today, since later he seemed better... which actually... hmm... I have to think. And when it comes to it, I could also vote Oddwen. But that'd be probably just as a sign of warning, because I don't think anyone else would vote her, so...

EDIT: x-ed since Aganzir

[Thinlómien]

I don't really like this Lhuna-wagon. Not only because I don't find her particularly suspicious, but also because there's something that makes me feel bad about it in it. Let's call it a gut-feeling.

I have almost no idea who I will vote... Of those who have received votes I'd prefer Gwath, although he does not seem particularly guilty. No one in this village does.

Where's Oddwen?

edit: xed with G, EW and M

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

*sigh* There is the thing that I was looking forward to playing with Lhuna a little more in this game, since I practically haven't played with her ever... which goes for more people like Oddwen as well... and why just these people are those I'd lynch now... if I were to be guided by this, I'd vote Nogrod since I've played enough times with him, but it's not much...

EDIT: Great, my net just fell down. What the... (this was supposed to be sent about five minutes ago, and I couldn't even see the posts before. Great.)

[The Elf-warrior]

Nogrod,I can see why you would reason so, but I disagree. Maybe I'm an innocent who is looking for guidance, and who is persuaded by what you say.

++Aganzir

I agree with you about wolf plans, and you seem all right, but I'm going on a hunch. Please forgive me if you aren't a wolf.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Please forgive me if you aren't a wolf.

I forgive you if you aren't a wolf yourself.

++ Legate

Because I suspect him more and Lhuna will probably die anyway.

edit: xed with Gwath and Lommy

[Gwathagor]

Volo -> Volo
Lhuna -> Gwath
Kath -> Legate
Nerwen -> Lhuna
Gwath -> Lhuna
Mith -> Nog
Nog -> Lhuna
TEW -> Aganzir
Lommy -> Gwath
Aganzir -> Legate

[Meneltarmacil]

The villagers crowded around Lhunardawen.

"Wolf! Your vile deeds are at an end!" shouted Gwathagor.

"We ought to stone you with your own pinecones!" yelled Nogrod

"Well, as long as it's humane and no animals are hurt aside from the wolf, I'm in," Nerwen agreed.

"Wait! I'm the one who ought to be lynched!" blurted out Volo "I hate these times that I can't argue with you!"

A rope was flung over a high branch of one of the pine trees and tied into a noose around Lhunardawen's neck. The villagers formed a line and pulled up on the other end of the rope, hoisting the victim high.

"Please! Let me down!" Lhuna gasped. "You're making a horrible mistake! If I die there'll be nobody to..."

She ran out of breath and died. As the villagers released their hold on the rope, the body fell to the ground, and out of Lhuna's clothes rolled a crystal ball.

The kind used by Seers.

"Oh no..." said Kath. "This isn't good."

Alive:
Aganzir
Gwathagor
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Nerwen
Nogrod
Oddwen
satansaloser2005
The Elf-warrior
Thinlomien
Volo

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Crushed under falling cow by Wolves on Night 1.
Lhunardawen (Seer): Hung by villagers on Day 1.

Night 2 begins. I need names from those who can give them. Villagers, please cease posting.

[Meneltarmacil]

The next day dawned. It was overcast and foggy.

The villagers gathered around and noted that one of them was missing.

"Where's Aganzir? I was going to buy a pair of boots from her," asked Kath.

Indeed, the Cobbler was not around.

"I'll bet she's talking to her friends, the werewolves," noted Volo. "After all, she's a Cobbler, so she has to secretly hate us all and support the wolves."

The villagers made there way to Aganzir's house, where a gruesome sight awaited them. The Cobbler's bloody remains were lying all over the place, while her skin had been dried out to fit a pair of boots.

Worst of all, there was no sign that she had been anything but an Ordinary Villager.

Alive:
Gwathagor
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Nerwen
Nogrod
Oddwen
satansaloser2005
The Elf-warrior
Thinlomien
Volo

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Crushed under falling cow by Wolves on Night 1.
Lhunardawen (Seer): Hung by villagers on Day 1.
Aganzir (Ordinary Villager): Made into shoes by Wolves on Night 2.

And thus begins Day 2. Wolves, no more PMing. Villagers may commence posting.

[Oddwen]

I truly, truly apologize for disappearing yesterday...I got the times mixed up...

But wow, tough luck.

I am inclined to disagree with the theory that Lhuna dreamed of an innocent - reading over her posts the phrases regarding her suspicions seem to stand out to me...then again, she suspected three (Gwath, Nerwen, Nogrod), but only voted one...this sentence is going nowhere.

Then again, she may have dreamed of someone who hadn't even posted before she had to log off, such as Kath or Elf Warrior, and was unable to find something to jump at or defend...

Anyway. Gwath is the one looking most suspicious to me, based on Lhuna's reasonings behind her vote - Mith I'm thinking is leaning close to innocent - I'm feeling some tension from Lommy - I am looking over the rest of you but I am forgetting words and will be back in the morning.