Werewolf XLVI: Getting Back to Basics

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am posting from the school library *yay!* so I'll have to be brief, but you know what it is when I say "brief"...

Once again, the last posts of Nog made my suspicions drastically rise.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I still haven't heard your answer to the initial suspicion that your first post looks wolvish. In it you manage to say how sad (wolf-apology) and surprised (wolf-cover) you're that Agan is gone.

This is very bad, isn't anyone allowed to express his feelings? And I did, too, because it was honest. Yes, wolves do that to cover themselves, but why to make a case of it, and in such a big manner.

Originally Posted by Kath

Nerwen ~ no real reasoning. Says she suspects Lhuna 'ish'. This is such a strangely supported vote that I actually feel it speaks to her innocence.

Seems logical, only let's remember this if either Kath or Nerwen show to be wolves, the other may be as well and this is the point of "easy defending the other".

Originally Posted by Kath

Lhuna posts:
Hmm, mentions a twist of some kind, as though she has something to say. A role hint maybe or something more.

Not quite sure about that, if anything I would consider more of a hint the words "or so my pine cones tell me". But it may be as well just some silliness and in-game thing.

Originally Posted by Kath

Votes Gwath mostly by a process of elimination. Is it possible that she dreamt of him? She has little forthright reasoning for her vote, yet has gone after him relatively strongly for Day 1.

Originally Posted by Oddwen

I am inclined to disagree with the theory that Lhuna dreamed of an innocent - reading over her posts the phrases regarding her suspicions seem to stand out to me...then again, she suspected three (Gwath, Nerwen, Nogrod), but only voted one...this sentence is going nowhere.

I would not think Lhuna dreamt of Gwath, although she could (not knowing him at all from games before, she picked him on first night). But as for what Oddwen says, the suspicion of three would not necessarily have to matter - she might have known one but suspected others, and eventually used the others to "shield" the fact that she's seer and really dreamt of one of them.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, was Lhuna killed for giving Seer hints? We can't assume this, but if she was it's more likely it was for picking a wolf than for babbling about pine cones. (I'd guess Gwathagor, in that case.)

However– why wasn't she killed in the night instead? Remember, she suspected everyone who voted her, so if there are wolves among them (I'm not one, as it happens), then they risked incriminating themselves.

That's if she was killed for being a Seer and not just a nuisance.

What "killed"? I don't actually get your thinking here at all. Lhuna was lynched, by you among others, and I tend to think it was sheer luck, as it will be quite a feat for Wolves to reveal the Seer, then if possible all of them should know about it (!), and then most of them would have to vote her - the way you put it. Odd coincidences, would that be?
(But not sure what to make of it.)

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But actually, on the other hand, she might have dreamt of Gwath and found him guilty. Apart from that guilty lawyer -thing, there's this
That could be it, couldn't it?

That's actually not that bad idea. I'll have to look&think of it as soon as I get back home and have more time.

Originally Posted by Lommy

This comment of Legate's is quite odd

It sounds suspiciously like he's making an excuse for ignoring a slip-under-the-radar fellow wolf.

Nay, you misunderstand. I meant that I am not examining the ones who are silent, which I meant as a reproach, to make them post something.

All right. Need to leave, Phaedros awaits! See you in the evening! (my evening)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Well, l(like I just said a few paragraphs above), what on earth could I reply to that.

Well you managed to use a few pages into your reply... so obviously you were quite able to.

And after all this I think I have some reasons to believe you're more innocent than not (the way you reacted felt quite genuine) which I didn't have yesterDay. Sadly I can't say the same of Legate as his reactions to the affair felt more sinister. But without further points on him I would not like to vote for him at least yet.


So what to do? I think we have two promising possible slips.

So look at this quote from Nerwen after she defends her vote on Lhuna being forced to make it early:

I was, of course, afraid of wolves jumping on my vote

!!!

Also Lommy had a nice find from Gwath:

or you really do know whether I am innocent or guilty

I'd say Gwath's is more incriminating but I'm not feeling too good with Nerwen's either.

Also I still think Volo's self-vote was more suspicious than not.

The Elf Warrior and Sally should really come more forwards.

We're having an extra choir-rehersal but I will be back an hour or two before the deadline.

[Oddwen]

Rats, not enough time as I would like...

The tension between Lomgrod and Nogomien is setting off bells for me - I don't know if it's the family thing, or a pack thing.

From Nerwen, some defensiveness -

One thing I feel like nitpicking at is those who say "this player played this way", or "when this player was a wolf...", because not all of us have the privilege of experiencing this information, and are liable to have their heads turned...it seems that someone could hide something with it.

Alas, my time has run out and I must vote - I'm convinced that Lhuna dreamt of a Wolf - and his post(s?) toDay seemeth to me to be nearly too defensive.

Late for work,

++GWATHAGOR

[Thinlómien]

Nogrod's latest post gave me an innocent and laid-back feeling - did he craft the post hoping to make such an impression? Or is he really just innocent? Too bad...

Also, Legate should stop that behaviour instantly! Whatever I say about him, he posts right after me and changes my opinion. I mean, that post sounded very genuine and innocent (maybe especially if you discount a few phrases that weren't remarkably so). Maybe I should analyse his posts (do I really want to undertake such a project?) or something to form a clear picture of him...

Oddwen feels rather innocent. And I do not see why Nerwen's "slip" is incriminating.

Okay, now that I've had a quick word in, I'll go and reread toDay and also elaborate on the Gwath&Legate -thing...


edit: xed with Volo

[Mithalwen]

Hi I am here, I haven't had a chance to read through yet. I managed to find out I was still alive last night but no more. I was a bit suprised since I reviewed Lhuna's post once I knew she was the Seer and thought I was the most likely Dream subject. This is a double edged sword since I am more likely to survive the days but less likely to survive the nights. Of course we may have a Ranger ...and one advantage of not knowing is that the wolves don't know either what limits on protection that ranger may have .. ..off to read

[Mithalwen]

Or may be that is self-absorption/self-obsession/arrogance...delete according to your own opinion...

[Volo]

Unlike Noggie, I find Kath more suspicious than in other games I've had with her. I don't think I've ever seen her as a Wolf and I can't really find what made me suspect her. Something in #101 really scared me, but since she has left, I won't start searching much deeper into it toDay.

Nerwen, on the other hand feels quite Innocent. Although some things she said made quite little sense.

Lommy is much more like the Innocent-Lommy than the Wolf-Lommy. Her arguing with Noggie is less nervous than when she's evil.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Some things I noted.

Well found, but unfortunately, I don't think the Seer-dream-stuff is very useful. We should remember that it points at either Oddwen's Innocence or Gwath's guilt. Not both - and we can't know which for sure. Hmm... Ok, my idea was quite pointless, but I want to remind that it doesn't point both to Oddwen's Innocence and Gwath's guilt. I myself, don't believe that the Seer would reveal her Dreams so soon. Then again, Lommy has been good with guessing Dreams earlier... Oh, botheration.

But the find about Gwath's possible slip is good, though I still can't admit that I fully believe in the existance of slips. As deep as I have ventured into the jungles, I have found surprisingly little of the Wolf-eating legend called "slips".

Originally Posted by Lommy

I just had a French lesson (how appropriate ) and something occured to me. Legate and Gwath are fellow wolves, it fits parfaitement. I don't have time to elaborate right now but I will definitely return to that, as well as finish rereading the thread.

This most certainly points to Lommy's Innocence. I hope that something of your point is left - at the very least I would like to hear it.

Noggie's #112 looks too calm concidering the situation. I would have expected much more reaction at Lommy's certainty about Legate and Gwath. Or at least something, something... As if he's avoiding the topic.
And the fact that he continuesly reminds about my vote. I really think he should know better!

edit: Xd with three Lommys

[Thinlómien]

The thing I missed was this.

Originally Posted by Gwath

Seriously? Or do you just not want us to look? Both you and Lommy have seriously played down the implications of Lhuna's death. And now you're both going after Nogrod.

and

Originally Posted by Legate

No way. Just go and look, actually, there's not that many posts from her. But I am stating my opinion: and that is - there's not much to gather.

It really doesn't change anything. Except it's a bit harsh from fellow wolves in the start of Day2, but not unthinkable at all...

Okay, now I'll write a summary about my feelings about people (and quite funnily, I started forming this post in that French lesson many hours ago... I'll see if there are changes...)...


edit: xed with silly Volo

[Thinlómien]

Okay, this is my suspicion list, from the most innocent to the most guilty...

Innocent-like
Mith - general manner, own declarations of innocence

Not alarmed about
Oddwen - feels genuine enough, possibly dreamed of by Lhuna, so I wouldn't start worrying about her yet
Nerwen - general feeling, there's nothing suspicious about her that has caught my attention

Too little data or no clear opinion on
sally - what can you say based on one single post? Well, if I had to guess, I wouldn't be worried...
Elf-Warrior - far too little data, but I'm not really troubled (ie he's slipping under my radar )
Volo - he's not worrying me either, although he has refused to explain his vote, which is something that doesn't make me very easy about him

Slightly suspicious
Kath - there's just something in her overall manner that doesn't sit right with me

Suspicious
Legate
Gwath
Nogrod

I won't elaborate on the three last ones, because they are what I'm mostly been talking about the whole Day. I could vote any of them - although I'd be the least enthusiastic to vote Legate of those. He looks the least suspicious of them and given how my opinion of him changes, I wouldn't be ready to lynch him just yet...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

What "killed"? I don't actually get your thinking here at all. Lhuna was lynched, by you among others, and I tend to think it was sheer luck, as it will be quite a feat for Wolves to reveal the Seer, then if possible all of them should know about it (!), and then most of them would have to vote her - the way you put it. Odd coincidences, would that be?
(But not sure what to make of it.)

A point of semantics... I guess I was thinking that if wolves indeed contributed to her death they "killed" her, but if it bothers you I'll amend it to "lynched".

The point I'm working up to is this: Lhuna spoke of a number of people, some as guilty and some as innocent. She could only have dreamed of one person. Do we take her lynching as confirmation that she dreamed of a wolf (in which case her comments about Mith and Oddwen are no use to us)? Or not?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nogrod's latest post gave me an innocent and laid-back feeling - did he craft the post hoping to make such an impression? Or is he really just innocent? Too bad...

Nogrod and Lommy are confusing me. Are they playing at accusing each other, with Lommy backing off when it gets too serious? Or is this Lommy flip-flopping as usual?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Oddwen feels rather innocent. And I do not see why Nerwen's "slip" is incriminating.

Neither does Nerwen. After I voted Lhuna on what I admitted were weak grounds, I thought, "well, I hope she is guilty, because if not I've given the villains a nice opportunity". Why the "!!!"

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Nogrod and Lommy are confusing me. Are they playing at accusing each other, with Lommy backing off when it gets too serious? Or is this Lommy flip-flopping as usual?

Well, I still suspect him. He's one of my top suspects. But that last post of his just sounded genuinely innocent, in a way. That's the truth of it. And trust me, if this strife was prearranged, I would not be backing away, but attacking more forcefully...

[Thinlómien]

Oh, I think I missed one Gwath-Legate exchange. I'll go to have dinner now but I'll analyse it when I come back.

[satansaloser2005]

Fourteen until deadline, and only one vote in, unless I'm mistaken. Let's not have a last minute vote session, everyone.

[Gwathagor]

I want to get my vote in early to avoid the rush.

++LEGATE

I'll try to come back before DL and back that up a bit, but right now I REALLY have to use the toilet......so I might not make it back...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I want to get my vote in early to avoid the rush.

++LEGATE

I'll try to come back before DL and back that up a bit, but right now I REALLY have to use the toilet......so I might not make it back...

Really too much information

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am back! Well, nothing much different for me to say. Nog seems to me that he is playing wolfy-safe this time, really. Like, bringing suspicion against someone, then being a little reserved when he thinks he should calm down and let the waters calm a little, like in this case with Lommy:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And after all this I think I have some reasons to believe you're more innocent than not (the way you reacted felt quite genuine) which I didn't have yesterDay. Sadly I can't say the same of Legate as his reactions to the affair felt more sinister. But without further points on him I would not like to vote for him at least yet.

Then I don't like the things he bases his suspicions on - they are too "simple" for Nog! He, from my point of view gives too much weight in his cases to things like Lommy saying "Poor Lhuna" or what it was, or this:

Originally Posted by Nog

So look at this quote from Nerwen after she defends her vote on Lhuna being forced to make it early: !!!

These are the simplest things one catches a wolf on. But surely we know well that even normal people may say things like that and it's not necessary to always build case on that. Or at least say "Yes, but also..." And I would expect Nog at least to come to this with more "critical thinking", eh? Unless he has interest to not include it but build suspicion against those people among others.

Originally Posted by Nog

Also Lommy had a nice find from Gwath:

And this could be a wolf catching upon a suspicion that can be built, and which even others may follow...

Originally Posted by Nog

Also I still think Volo's self-vote was more suspicious than not.

Not sure why. I also have to check what you said about his self-vote yesterday... if you did anything... because I think there's nothing odd on that.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

A point of semantics... I guess I was thinking that if wolves indeed contributed to her death they "killed" her, but if it bothers you I'll amend it to "lynched".

Well yes, but it was not just about the word you used, of course it's clear you meant lynched (although it's odd), however you talked even the way that it looked like you took the lynch of Lhuna as some planned event, like a kill, indeed. I don't know what to make of it at all, but I simply find that odd.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Also, Legate should stop that behaviour instantly! Whatever I say about him, he posts right after me and changes my opinion.

Oh, sorry. That's not intentional But at least it keeps your mind thinking it over, doesn't it?

EDIT: x-ed just a little... since Mith or what was it, before Lommy now...

[Volo]

I think our problem is that we haven't hed the silent/loud-discussion on yet. :S

[Nogrod]

Please Legate try to decide what you're suspecting me of: running rampant or playing safe?

Let me explain my points on Nerwen and Volo (once again) as they have been asked.

It's pretty clear we're more often than not pretty unsure with our votes. But I find it quite interesting Nerwen brings that up in such a manner. First of all there were already votes on Volo, Gwath and Legate at the point when Nerwen voted. Why was she afraid - already then as she claims - the wolves might jump particularly on her vote? Why did she vote for Lhuna if she wasn't actually the most suspicious one in her eyes? There's an easy solution these if Nerwen is a wolf. Then she knew her vote was sham and when Lhuna turned out the seer her position looked bad. So she had all the reason to whitewash herself as soon as possible and maybe she just overdid it trying to make us feel that she had been sorry to vote for Lhuna already yesterDay and had hoped the wolves would not follow her vote? But why wouldn't innocent votes get Lhuna lynched as well? Or was it pure rhetoric (me innocent - them wolves trying to use my "innocent & repented" vote).

Volo's vote, once again then. He was the first to vote and he voted himself without any pressure to be seen on him. The result: everyone (well almost everyone) thinks he must be an innocent. I just don't see an innocent doing it - or at least I see a host of more resons for a wolf to do that.

Not much of cases either one of them but better than nothing.

Still I think our best bet toDay is Gwath unless we get some brighter ideas during this last hour+.

EDIT: X'd with Lommy & Gwath

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Please Legate try to decide what you're suspecting me of: running rampant or playing safe?

Both. And don't try to save it with the overlooking tone and a smiley. I - don't - like - the -way - you - behave in this game.

Originally Posted by Nog

It's pretty clear we're more often than not pretty unsure with our votes. But I find it quite interesting Nerwen brings that up in such a manner. First of all there were already votes on Volo, Gwath and Legate at the point when Nerwen voted. Why was she afraid - already then as she claims - the wolves might jump particularly on her vote? Why did she vote for Lhuna if she wasn't actually the most suspicious one in her eyes? There's an easy solution these if Nerwen is a wolf. Then she knew her vote was sham and when Lhuna turned out the seer her position looked bad.

Or from how strangely she talks, if I combine these two things, that could be a solution - that she's a wolf and actually thought Lhuna a Seer. This would fit with this theory you present (which I would think plausible), and explain her really strange talks about kill and such. Or maybe. But I am actually still perplexed about it, as I think Nerwen intelligent enough not to make any silly slipping mistakes, if she were a wolf. Not like that.

Originally Posted by Nog

Volo's vote, once again then. He was the first to vote and he voted himself without any pressure to be seen on him. The result: everyone (well almost everyone) thinks he must be an innocent. I just don't see an innocent doing it - or at least I see a host of more resons for a wolf to do that.

And that's actually what I don't think, and not also sure that many people did think him innocent because of that. My approach, and suggestion, was to simply ignore the vote at all: not make it a bonus, nor a minus. Volo was in certain situation, it's possible he did it intentionally, but... you see, I find that too small thing to base anything on.

Volo: Only one question which you did not explain in your last post. There was also the option not to vote at all. Why did you not do it and voted yourself instead?

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Why did you not do it and voted yourself instead?

I support death penalty when not being decisive about killing somebody. In other words: modfire.

Drat, this is getting late.

:/