Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Durelin]

I like Lalaith's list...

Lalaith is an unlikely wolf-pick, I think, because she was not worth the risk, as she was de-gifted the Night the new Ranger was created, and so would not know his/her identity. But obviously no guarantees.

Originally Posted by morm

Not a single one of them were mass-posters and nobody was overly crazy in their mannerisms, but none, with the possible exception of Celuien were really quiet either.

How does Greenie not fit this bill, exactly?

You also did not cross-compare me, so I think this is rather (*cough*severely*cough*) flawed.

Edit: So I guess Greenie falls under "too quiet"? Being that quiet hasn't seemed to hurt her any, though, has it? But yes, yes, I understand that wasn't what you were doing, morm.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Durelin

I like Lalaith's list...

Lalaith is an unlikely wolf-pick, I think, because she was not worth the risk, as she was de-gifted the Night the new Ranger was created, and so would not know his/her identity. But obviously no guarantees.



How does Greenie not fit this bill, exactly?

You also did not cross-compare me, so I think this is rather (*cough*severely*cough*) flawed.

See? Dure's a wolf! She practically admitted it!!!!!!!!







I agree about Greenie though. She fits the same pattern as the rest.

[Gwathagor]

Ok, so, I'm going to be in Idaho for the weekend, at a wedding (not my own), so I may not be able to vote during Day 7. I won't be back until Sunday after DL, which means that whether I post or not will depend on whether I can borrow someone's internet while in Idaho.

I see that sally has joined the "Let's Make References To Gwath's Bad Track Record As A WW" Club, of which Lommy is the founding member. Rikae wouldn't necessarily be aware of my tendency to get lynched (by villagers, by fellow wws, etc.) though, because she's only played one game with me that I can remember. So, you could take one of two things from this fact. Either Rikae would be likely to make me a wolf because she doesn't know I get lynched easily, or she would be unlikely to make me a wolf because she's not familiar with me as a player. Take your pick.

One other thing, sally: what exactly did I say that made it sound as if I knew WW statuses? I don't remember saying anything of the kind, and I'd like to see if it's truly suspicious or not.

I agree with everyone else that Lalaith is an unlikely wolf-pick. I think we can count her as innocent along with Durelin. Everyone else has their distinct pros and cons, though, and is fair game. Rikae could very well have anticipated many of our arguments such as "so-and-so is an unlikely wolf because they're too obvious" or "they're too crazy" or whatever...

Ok, I'm going to bed. I'll vote when I wake up (and before I leave for Idaho). I'm sorry I wasn't able to post more toDay.

[Durelin]

So, Rikae started out with 3 wolves, right?

On Night 2, she scried me.

Aganzir was lynched on Day 2, so she was one of the original 3.

Back to 3 wolves, but she picks up a fourth on Night 3 because there are two kills that Night.

Cailin is lynched on Day 3. Back down to 3 wolves.

Lalaith is scried Night 4, de-gifted. Still three wolves - myself, Nilp, and Celuien.

I rather suspect Nilp was an original wolf. I don't know about Cailin or Celuien.

I knew Cailin was a fellow WW on Night 3, because Rikae informed us other wolves that we could try to go after her if Cailin was in danger. That was when she revealed to us, because she knew she had been scried. I don't know how she somehow knew Cailin would be in danger...the amount of interweaving of her and phantom's plans really is just...insane. Uncanny.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, quick post before bed-

Everyone, please remember that when Rikae scried the last wolf, she wasn't planning for him to go in alone. At that point, she couldn't have known that Durelin would be scried, and Celuien handed over for lynching. Had things gone according to Rikae's plan, we would have three wolves right now, instead of one. This last wolf was meant to work as part of the team, not on his own. Please remember that when trying to think of who Rikae picked.

Also, morm, you should be on your own list. You fit that bill rather nicely.

I'll be on just before I 'll leave for work, and again on my lunch break, hopefully to vote.

[Lalaith]

Right, I'm off to work and as usual I won't be back until around 5.30pm.

Durelin - thanks for liking my list, sorry I accidentally left you off it - you are obviously innocent.
Roa - I always put myself on my own lists. And ironically, you're right, Morm should have been on his own list.
I'm going to look into the Grimoire about Rikae's previous playing companions when I get back.
Anyway, I'm late (again - this game is going to get me fired. )
See you this evening.

[Thinlómien]

Yes, Rikae wasn't choosing a lone wolf, but she knew that her pick would probably be her last one. That is worth bearing in mind.

On Lalaith - yes, she'd be a risky pick and I'm not sure if Rikae had gone for cursing her because she really would not have had time to gte all info from her. Obviously, Lalaith has not given her the identity of the ranger (or then she just hadn't told it to her wolves) - whether because she doesn't know it, or because she's innocent. There's one way why Lal would have been a good pick, anyway: Rikae could be sure that she was an ordo and thus would 100% certainly turn into a wolf.

I should vote soon and I still have little idea... except that Gwath seems more innocent now, I think.

[Thinlómien]

By the way, as luring as the approach of who Rikae would have picked is, I think we shouldn't give it that much importance. I think we've already proved that almost everybody would be a good and a bad choice in one way or another. So we really can't deduce anything. It'd be better to concentrate on actual wolvish behaviour, even as there's probably little of it to be seen yet.

Personally, I would not be surprised if someone of those who just popped in and voted yesterDay (with no RL excuse) was quite furry, because who else than a wolf would think there's nothing more to do that Day? (Well, looking at the number of posts, probably quite a few innocents.) Anyway, I'm going to do a check.