Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Nerwen was, I believe, an excellent target of opportunity.

I know how it feels--in past lives, when I had gained renown as 't3h suiicdal 1', I was easy prey to any Werewolf/wolves with intentions of getting an innocent killed on DAY 1.

I'm glad her head is sacred now, somewhat. Although I fear the so-called Sixth Wizard has replaced her as nearest target of opportunity.

As for my accusation of her, and then the backing off, I was merely, as I have said, testing the waters. We cannot all draw solid suspicions out of thin air, or IC posts.

She makes sense, and is geniune in her eagerness to help this fair village, which is why I agree with Mandos in thinking her innocent.

The voting so far: (Times are +8GMT.)

09:49pm Form - Nog (Nog - 1)
12:50am Kit - N3rw3n (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1)
05:29am sally - VI (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 1)
05:51am Mith - sally (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1)
06:18am Eomer - Mith (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1, Mith - 1)
06:25am Eönwë - Mith (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1, Mith - 2)
06:28am Kath - Eönwë (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 1)
06:35am THE Ka - Rikae (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 1, Rikae - 1)
06:37am Durelin - Kit (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 1, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)
06:42am Boro - VI (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 2, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 1, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)

DAY is nearly over. Let's make a tie, and see what happens:

++Eönwë

He was the first to start a bandwaggon, anyhow, and he votes out of thin air.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

As I said yesterday, target of opportunity.

Well, let's see the train wreck yesterday.

09:49pm Form - Nog (Nog - 1)

Because what would make a better cover for a hacker looking to overthrow the existing Mods than a pathetic wannabe-Mod? No one would suspect it.

Except I just did.

As close to calculated randomness as one can get that early.

12:50am Kit - N3rw3n (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1)

Nerwen jumps out because she posts often and says little. Granted most of her posts were in character jargon and her most recent ones are serious and moving away from IC, but she makes a note to say those who make long lists, but say nothing are suspicious. I find people who make frequent short posts that say nothing equally suspicious. Which is why I now vote for Nerwen. Though she is only moderately suspicious in my eyes she stands out from the others on my list.

Previously she said of Nerwen:

Her short, IC posts obviously say little, but her more serious posts give little to go on as well.

Rather well-reasoned . . .

05:29am sally - VI (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 1)

Sarcastically, I'm the only one allowed to be a grammar Nazi on here, but we all know that's not the case. In reality, Sixth's post seems just....wrong. It's the first day and, as much as I hate to say it, at the moment there's not much we can get from toDay. Sixth is trying too hard to reason. Does that make sense? Blah.

Time to bring up this issue. This was from VI's only post:

Wow, Nerwen is making my brain hurt. I say we vote her because:

a) Reading that kind of text will be really annoying later in the game for everyone.

b) Nerwen knows this and if she really is a wolf and she survives, she will go under the radar later in the game. (I personally am NOT going to read that in a longer post than three lines, it hurts my head)

and

c) I've got nothing on anyone else.

Okay, reason b) is somewhat suspicious, but!

• it's his first post; and
• it's still page 1

so IC-based accusation is rather to be expected. Which was why I said we wait for him to defend himself (but he didn't get here in time . . . )
Tell me you didn't anticipate him attacking Nerwen rather fiercely on DAY 1, and I'll show you a liar. I've read more suspicious 1st post/1st page posts than this (z.B. he'd be too dangerous if he lives past DAY 1; he won't be of much help to the village anyway, usw.) A little more slack should have been given him.

05:51am Erenor - sally (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1)

Really nearly asleep now - early morning in the pool and late nights in a cyber cafe are not a good combo! Anyway can't decide about Kitanna & Nerwen and Form .. but Sally's vote just seems a bit too parasitic... at least Kitanna and Form stuck their heads above the parapet.

I agree, mother.

06:18am Eomer - Mith (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1, Mith - 1)

[ . . . ]Nerwen, Eonwe and Mithalwen are my three wolves at the moment. I'd bet my $8 frappuccino on Mith anyway.

Earlier he said:

[ . . . ]Mithalwen, you may think Sally is being opportunistic, with her vote for 6th, but I could equally well say it about you. Whatever Sally had it was gonna be weak, and this is another chance for you to step in with a righteous comment. She's taken the position of early-voter-with-bad-reason and you've matched her in becoming critic-of-early-voter.

Two sides, same coin.

Rather forced, it looks like . . .

06:25am Eönwë - Mith (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1, Mith - 2)

Because of the way she posts, as if she's hiding behind hersef being IC but not at the same time. Hard to explain what I mean. Also, her attitude seems slightrly suspicious

"You should always sort out the problems nearby before you sort outt problems in the world", says me. And since we both live in "Beleriand" (accordinng to Nilp), she is definitely nearby.

Now this is eyebrow-raising.

06:28am Kath - Eönwë (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 1)

Alright, I'm giving up because I need to go to bed and I've people wanting to use the computer. Random vote because hey, it's Day 1. So truly random, I'm voting for the last person to post.

Random, but if she had evil intent I think she would have chosen someone with a vote already, perhaps even VI or Nerwen.

06:35am THE Ka - Rikae (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 1, Rikae - 1)

It seems like the post could be more, but the use of just a list with names appears like an insurance policy to protect oneself and act easily in aggreance. Like an effort to not ruffle too many feathers, but still contribute something.
Which, is suspicious and can fly under the radar during a first Day like this.

Makes sense . . .

06:37am Durelin - Kit (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 1, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 1, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)

Kitanna bothers me. She picked up Nerwen's lovely conspiracy theory to stir that up, and then voted for Nerwen. Hmm.

06:42am Boro - VI (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 2, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 1, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)

I don't know whether I want to vote for The Sixth, or The Elf-Warrior, those are the two who stick out the most. I have some feelings about sally and Mith, but they won't get answered today.

Previously, in another post:

The Sixth's reasoning is forced, since Nerwen is annoying, let's lynch her before she slips under the radar. And oh plus there's no one else.

06:48am Nilp - Eönwë (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 1, VI - 2, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 2, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)

He was the first to start a bandwaggon, anyhow, and he votes out of thin air.

06:50am Rikae - Nerwen (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 2, VI - 2, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 2, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)

for not answering my question, and for hyphenating names excessively.

(Really, I'm serious about that - placing the focus on a duo or trio is a time-honored wolf strategy, and here it really seems premature.)

Second eyebrow-raiser

06:54am EW - VI (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 2, VI - 3, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 2, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)

If this is suspicious so be it.

Yes, it is, now that you mention it. No mention of suspecting VI before this, and not even bothering to explain your vote.

06:55am Nerwen - Eönwë (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 2, VI - 3, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 3, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)

Self preservation, plus I think he's the most suspicious of the people who have two votes.

Somewhat understandable . . . She cross-posted with EW so she didn't see that she's already been saved.

06:56am Agan - VI (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 2, VI - 4, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 3, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)

(in another post:)One post and speaks only of Nerwen, telling why we should vote for her.

06:59am Nogrod - VI (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 2, VI - 5, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 3, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)

And Eönwë talks...

(Would you explain this?)

He said in another post:

I'm afraid that with The Sixth we get an easy wolf-victory - as well as with Nerwen.

Huh?

[T]he thing I've found them doing more often is waiting for any decent or half-decent suspicions to raise up and then go for it - stronger or milder eg. trying to turn it into a major suspicion or just going with the flow and getting an excuse for their vote.

Looking things from this anlgle would point at least to Eönwë and Kitanna and little less on The Sixth.

Double huh?

Have to prepare to move back into the aforementioned academic abomination, so more later . . .

[Formendacil]

Okay... what a weekend this is turning out to be. Now that we're through Day 1, I'll spare you the Tolkien canonicity--as much fun as I have it with notwithstanding--and focus on the task at hand; namely the hunting of our hackers.

First of all, however, I feel a need to clarify my precise feeling regarding Day 1s, since there seems to be an unfortunate misunderstanding about this. It seems that my position is being interpreted along the lines of "Day 1s are absolutely useless and therefore I refuse to see any good in them and will insult them utterly."

Now, while this is not an entirely inaccurate reading... it IS rather lacking in nuance, and a correction here is in order. My opinion regarding Day 1s is not that they are utterly useless, but rather that it is impossible to use them, during Day 1 itself, as a source of any sort of a reasonable analysis.

The thing is, the only "hard facts" in Werewolf are kills or attempted kills. Attempts to figure out who wolves and gifted are has to be reasoned from the basis of who gets killed, what the role of the people killed were, and who attempts to kill whom, and, indeed, when people join in the killing.

None of this is of any assistance of Day 1, because there is no pattern at all to analyse. In a numerical sequence, such as 1,2,4,8,16... or 1,2,3,4,5,6.... or 2,2,4,6,10,16... if one only has the first figure, it is virtually impossible to guess what pattern will emerge. With two or three numbers, this is narrowed down immensely. So too in Werewolf: on Day 1, there is no pattern of killings or attempted killings to analyse. At best, towards the end of the day, one has a single vote from a portion of the community. Hence why I feel it is the height of folly to attempt to seriously and earnestly attempt to find a real wolf on Day 1. You might luck out... but that's really only lucking out.

You may agree or disagree with the above as regards how accurate an assessment it is of the chances of finding a wolf on Day 1, but please do not do me the disservice of saying that it utter foolishness. It is, at the least, a cogent argument.

Furthermore, now that we are in Day 2, we have a different situation. Normally, on Day 2, there should be two kills to analyse: the village lynch from Day 1, and the wolvish killing of Night 2. Handicapping the village efforts today, however, we are only able to analyse the village lynch, since the wolves were effectively neutralised. Unfortunately, this leaves us in a very sticky situation, since not only do we have a single kill to work off, but we have a classic bandwaggon situation. It is not, I think, without hope: I, at least, am inclined to think that at least one, if not two, of the wolves hid in the votes against Sixth, and this does narrow the field considerably. It would certainly have been a safe way to vote, since there was plenty of cover in a well joined bandwaggon, and Sixth spoke so little that it cannot easily be construed as a malicious, wolf-started bandwaggon. In particular, I think votes 2 and 3 for Sixth bear further attention, namely Boromir88 and Elfwarrior. In particular, I think Elfwarrior's timing, as third voter (usually the crucial vote to make something into a bandwaggon), together with her very nonchalant lack of reason for posting, and practically village-defying way of doing it, make her a prime candidate for investigation.

More thought on that, when I return.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Normally, on Day 2, there should be two kills to analyse: the village lynch from Day 1, and the wolvish killing of Night 2. Handicapping the village efforts today, however, we are only able to analyse the village lynch, since the wolves were effectively neutralised. Unfortunately, this leaves us in a very sticky situation, since not only do we have a single kill to work off, but we have a classic bandwaggon situation.

You know, if I were the Ranger I'd be feeling seriously unappreciated at this point...

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Random, but if she had evil intent I think she would have chosen someone with a vote already, perhaps even VI or Nerwen

What? She started a bandwaggon against an innocent!

edit: but maybe not purposefully.

edit 2: x-èd with Shasta and Eomer

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Eonwe, not that I agree with Nilp's reasoning, but I wouldn't say that voting for someone yet to receive a vote is starting a bandwagon.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Thanks Nerwen, I wondered whether the cobbler had been abandoned.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Eonwe, not that I agree with Nilp's reasoning, but I wouldn't say that voting for someone yet to receive a vote is starting a bandwagon.

You're right.In fact, it may have been Nilp that started that, then Nerwen joined in, making it the 3rd vote, which I think could (And maybe should) be classified as a bandwaggon.

[Nerwen]

hAy n00b!!11!

d0nt u no i woz ti3d with u & mith & sixth & n3ar DL???

r u b31ng IC & makeNg c0nsp1RacY th30r13z???

or r u st00pid or wot???11!!!

Edit: fixed bolding
Edit2: added name to list.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

hAy n00b!!11!

d0nt u no i woz ti3d with u & mith & sixth & n3ar DL???

r u b31ng IC & makeNg c0nsp1RacY th30r13z???

or r u st00pid or wot???11!!!

It was a theory that I rejected, then entertained with IC-ness.

Edit: Hmm.... At least, that's what I understood. Maybe Shasta will come up with a translation that requires a different answer. Only time will tell.


PS. And why are you moving to the 1337 side of things?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion

Not merely those suspicious of them, but those eager for their blood, as you are, Aganzir.

I will soon grow hungry for your blood, too, dear Nilp.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

06:56am Agan - VI (Nog - 1, N3rwen - 2, VI - 4, sally - 1, Mith - 2, Eönwë - 3, Rikae - 1, Kit - 1)

I think it was rather the following that was my main reason to vote for him. Though I agree the reason you posted looks more suspicious.

Out of those who have posted little and mostly in character, he's the most suspicious.

Originally Posted by Form

It is not, I think, without hope: I, at least, am inclined to think that at least one, if not two, of the wolves hid in the votes against Sixth, and this does narrow the field considerably.

Or then three. Or then none at all. I think it is impossible to predict how many of the votes for the lynchee were wolfish. It might have been easy to vote for Sixth, but it was easy to vote for many others, too. Maybe all hackers voted for Eönwë one after the other and are now smirking at these speculations.

Since EW was around to correct Form, I would have expected him also to participate in the discussion a bit more.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It occured to me that one of them might be an opportunistic wolf.

The reaction of Aganzir and later Rikae to this makes me wonder...

And it occurred to me that you were just trying to make us look suspicious by throwing a reason which was relatively easy to agree on; "yes, they certainly talked to one another, hmm there might be something to this."
You said you're automatically suspicious of people who make lists without explaining their thoughts - I could say I'm automatically suspicious of grouping people like that.

I don't like Nilp. I would like to see some reasoning behind this list:

Manwë has whispered to my ear that I should find the following to be suspicious of hearkening to Melko's overwhelming musics:
Durelin

Nerwen

Nogrod

Durelin and Nerwen had posted only IC, but Nog had some points also, sort of. And then suddenly Nerwen looks innocent after posting (mostly IC) twice, because she seems genuine in her endeavour to aid this community.

Originally Posted by Nilp

I should warn you though that the shape your thoughts take form on our screens makes you vulnerable to those confused by Melkor's discord, or perchance you know it already. Votes for you for 'IC reasons' may well disguise the perversion of their thoughts.

I don't like the sound of this. I don't know... If I had to say who I think might be wolves together, I'd say Nerwen and Nilp, and in that light that looks too much like a warning, "start behaving yourself or you'll get lynched!", and at the same time a threat to those who might suspect Nerwen otherwise, "if you suspect her, it will look like you're hackers after an easy lynch!"

Then Nerwen:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'm automatically suspicious of people who make lists of names with no explanations. On the other hand, I don't think a hacker/wolf would have said this:
[the Nilp quote above this one]

"You're suspicious for a reason I automatically suspect people of, but then on the other hand you must be innocent because you said this."
She also finds Sixth's post forced and brings up the "A/N/F brawl", which other people kept mentioning ever since.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I just meant they way you were suddenly jumping on each other. Only it hasn't developed since then.

Wolves do tend to try to reply to accusations with as little effort as possible so as not to look jumpy (and then their replies don't make sense or are inadequate, so they must be asked again). Nerwen has been keen on avoiding or downplaying questions. When I asked her why it looked like there was at least one wolf involved, she corrected me, telling she had said there might be a wolf involved, instead of answering my question.

I said already yesterday that I don't really like how Nilp is turning accusations from Sixth and Nerwen to those who suspected them, but let me repeat it.
He says they both look like they were excellent targets for opportunity. That will both make those who suspected them look bad and discourage people to suspect Nerwen.

This post wasn't intended to be a case against Nerwen and Nilp but seemingly it ended up being one.