Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Not obvious, and I did rather think he was the cobbler. If he was obviously NOT a wolf then you, Shasta, must be seriously hacked off at the village right now.

Or perhaps you, with secret knowledge, have climbed to the moral high-ground here?

"Not obvious"? So a wolf would ask the village to lynch them? And if you thought he was the cobbler, you would have said as much, because the cobbler counts as an innocent in win-lose calculations, doesn't it? And I'm not "hacked off", but I am a little bit irritated, both at the lynch AND the wolf-kill, because both were aimed at people who through no fault of their own (definately in the case of Kath, probably in the case of EW), but rather RL-issues, were unable to really play.

And I don't understand your last comment. "Secret knowledge"? Just what are you implying, Eomer?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

"Not obvious"? So a wolf would ask the village to lynch them? And if you thought he was the cobbler, you would have said as much, because the cobbler counts as an innocent in win-lose calculations, doesn't it? And I'm not "hacked off", but I am a little bit irritated, both at the lynch AND the wolf-kill, because both were aimed at people who through no fault of their own (definately in the case of Kath, probably in the case of EW), but rather RL-issues, were unable to really play.

And I don't understand your last comment. "Secret knowledge"? Just what are you implying, Eomer?

A Wolf would not ask to be lynched (in normal circumstances) but a Wolf would quite easily want to be unhelpful. That's why it was not obvious that EW was innocent.

''Agree with many others here. Elf-Warrior has to go. He is clearly up to no good, whether he be hacker or spammer (and I am inclined to think he is more likely spammer).'' From post 203.

I did say as much.

You assumed that EW wasn't unhelpful, just short on time. You look at it one way, I another.

And I'm implying that you are a Wolf, eager to make himself look good by making a lot of other people look bad. We got it wrong, but at the time a number of us thought EW was guilty. I also noted that you found me suspicious yesterday and have found another reason to criticise me.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

A Wolf would not ask to be lynched (in normal circumstances) but a Wolf would quite easily want to be unhelpful. That's why it was not obvious that EW was innocent.

''Agree with many others here. Elf-Warrior has to go. He is clearly up to no good, whether he be hacker or spammer (and I am inclined to think he is more likely spammer).'' From post 203.

I did say as much.

You assumed that EW wasn't unhelpful, just short on time. You look at it one way, I another.

And I'm implying that you are a Wolf, eager to make himself look good by making a lot of other people look bad. We got it wrong, but at the time a number of us thought EW was guilty. I also noted that you found me suspicious yesterday and have found another reason to criticise me.

I took the liberty of adding the underline to your post, above. I don't understand how it was so "clear" to you that EW was bad, because I still think five content-less posts is hardly enough to use to be clear on someone's guilt or innocence.

And I never said that it was obvious that he was an innocent. I said that if it was clear to you that he was, quote, asking to be lynched, unquote (again, asking to be lynched in five posts?), then it should have been equally clear to you that no Wolf in their right mind would act in such a manner that was likely to lead to their lynching.

Also, I am not "making" anyone look bad. You're managing that quite easily on your own.

Edit: X'd with the second Eomer.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I took the liberty of adding the underline to your post, above. I don't understand how it was so "clear" to you that EW was bad, because I still think five content-less posts is hardly enough to use to be clear on someone's guilt or innocence.

And I never said that it was obvious that he was an innocent. I said that if it was clear to you that he was, quote, asking to be lynched, unquote (again, asking to be lynched in five posts?), then it should have been equally clear to you that no Wolf in their right mind would act in such a manner that was likely to lead to their lynching.

Also, I am not "making" anyone look bad. You're managing that quite easily on your own.

Edit: X'd with the second Eomer.

Then it's agreed, Shasta? I'll just post nothing from now on except a vote and you'll have no reason to suspect me? Because how can content-less posts possibly be suspicious?

Also, the phrase ''asking to be lynched'' is just that -- a phrase. No, EW was not literally asking to be lynched. What that means is that he is acting suspiciously. Have you never encountered bold wolves? And it might not even have been boldness on EW's part -- perhaps he was just being quiet and trying to hide. Whether he meant to be provocative or not, the result was that he, along with his weird input, stood out from the crowd.

One more point: you highlight my use of the word 'clear'. If you want to grasp at that particular straw then you're welcome to, but sometimes people -- other than Formendacil of course -- use words incorrectly. ''It is clear that...'' and ''I really think that...'' are synonymous. I'm not writing an objective essay; I'm typing my opinions.

But really, it's been ages since my last proper Werewolf back-and-forth. It feels great. Cheers Shasta min!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Then it's agreed, Shasta? I'll just post nothing from now on except a vote and you'll have no reason to suspect me? Because how can content-less posts possibly be suspicious?

Also, the phrase ''asking to be lynched'' is just that -- a phrase. No, EW was not literally asking to be lynched. What that means is that he is acting suspiciously. Have you never encountered bold wolves? And it might not even have been boldness on EW's part -- perhaps he was just being quiet and trying to hide. Whether he meant to be provocative or not, the result was that he, along with his weird input, stood out from the crowd.

One more point: you highlight my use of the word 'clear'. If you want to grasp at that particular straw then you're welcome to, but sometimes people -- other than Formendacil of course -- use words incorrectly. ''It is clear that...'' and ''I really think that...'' are synonymous. I'm not writing an objective essay; I'm typing my opinions.

But really, it's been ages since my last proper Werewolf back-and-forth. It feels great. Cheers Shasta min!

I'll suspect you even more, because you're already shown that you've been active. EW seemed to be having RL-issues; happens to many people, hardly a solid foundation in which a suspicion should be based.

I am well-aware that "asking to be lynched" is just a phrase. Something had to occur, though, to make you use that particular phrase. And if it was EW's behavior, then it still should have followed that such behavior - the kind of behavior that attracts suspicion by conspicious noncontribution (is that a word?) - is not a behavioral pattern that a sane wolf would continue indefinately, especially as it's so easy to remedy. And if the reason you used that particular phrase was that he "stood out from the crowd"... why, all one has to do is look at Durelin. XD

And I'm not going to bother engaging you in a debate on the correct usage of the word "clear". I'll leave that to our resident grammar nazi... oh wait, he was lynched Day 1 after making one post.

Why thank you, Eomer, always glad to be of assistance.

Edit: Again, X'd with the second Eomer. And a "wolves do this, I'm not doing this, therefore I'm not a wolf" is a prime example of flawed logic.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

[/I]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

the kind of behavior that attracts suspicion by conspicious noncontribution (is that a word?) - is not a behavioral pattern that a sane wolf would continue indefinately, especially as it's so easy to remedy.

I'll leave that to our resident grammar nazi... oh wait, he was lynched Day 1 after making one post.

"wolves do this, I'm not doing this, therefore I'm not a wolf" is a prime example of flawed logic.

3 things from this post. Let us continue the Shasta/Eomer show:

1. Because staying very quiet and unhelpful for a mere 2 days is unthinkable? It's easy with hindsight, Shasta, but EW looked like bad news! Loads of people thought so!

2. Different with Sixth Wizard. He made one post and obviously couldn't return. I agree that his lynching was not warranted. Elf-Warrior made 5 posts, all completely lacking in insight. That's way more suspicious.

3. I'm not constructing a logical argument to demonstrate my innocence. All I'm saying is that if I was a wolf, I'd be gentler in my public dealings. I am not trying to convince you -- that would be futile -- but perhaps some other folk in the village remember me as a colder, more dismissive wolf, rather than the loud, fight-seeking chap I'm showing myself to be here today. It's not general; it's particular to me. Frankly, I don't care if anyone buys it; I'm not hiding my thoughts, and it's way less pressure to play as an innocent.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

[/I]

3 things from this post. Let us continue the Shasta/Eomer show:

1. Because staying very quiet and unhelpful for a mere 2 days is unthinkable? It's easy with hindsight, Shasta, but EW looked like bad news! Loads of people thought so!

2. Different with Sixth Wizard. He made one post and obviously couldn't return. I agree that his lynching was not warranted. Elf-Warrior made 5 posts, all completely lacking in insight. That's way more suspicious.

3. I'm not constructing a logical argument to demonstrate my innocence. All I'm saying is that if I was a wolf, I'd be gentler in my public dealings. I am not trying to convince you -- that would be futile -- but perhaps some other folk in the village remember me as a colder, more dismissive wolf, rather than the loud, fight-seeking chap I'm showing myself to be here today. It's not general; it's particular to me. Frankly, I don't care if anyone buys it; I'm not hiding my thoughts, and it's way less pressure to play as an innocent.

The Shasta/Eomer show. I like it.

1. In regards to the EW bandwagon, I somehow doubt "loads" of people thought he was bad. I think a few misguided innocents started it, then maybe a wolf or two jumped on, and the rest was a mix of maybe another wolf and a couple of "oh well" votes.

2. Five posts over the course of 96 hours is lying low, I agree with you there, but in his last two posts EW clearly stated he didn't have time to elaborate on his votes. And no one is ever especially active on Day 1 in most cases.

3. How you would act as a wolf, if you were one, makes no never mind in this case because you do not, can not have proof. How can we know you are what you say you are and how you would act if you aren't what you say you aren't? (I'm sorry, I know this particular point is muddled, but it's quite early for me.) And putting such emphasis on your past performances as a wolf leads me to the obvious conclusion that you're relying on that because you've drastically changed your wolf-style and are trying to make people think you haven't.

I think I shall go to bed now, it's five in the morning for me.

Stay tuned for another episode of the "Shasta/Eomer show", folks!

Edit: X'd with Boro, who doesn't like our regularly scheduled programming.

[satansaloser2005]

Hmph. Wish I had some more time to post but I need to be heading out in like....erm, now-ish. *is not a morning person* Anyway, I'll try to pop back in at lunch and check up on things, so you probably won't here from me for a bit just so you all know.


In the meantime....well, I've got nothing. Sorry I don't really have time for a proper post, but I've got to hurry off to work. Play nice while I'm gone.


EDIT: x'd with Noggie

[Kitanna]

So I've been poking around at those who voted for Eonwe and for Eonwe himself. Someone (Form I believe) took a look at EW voters and since Eonwe was next in line with the highest vote count I figure it may be prudent to examine them as well.

The following is based on Day 2 posts. It would be ideal if I could looked at Day 1 as well, but I may not have the time or attention span to dedicate to that.
Nilp:
His first post of the day pretty much recapped Day 1's events. He voiced mild suspicions on Eonwe, Eomer, Rikae, and to some degree Nogrod.
His second post defends Kath's random vote as not being wolf-on-wolf.
The next posts highlights what he thinks of some villagers.
He voted for Eonwe saying he was the most suspicious and he had done nothing to assuage his suspicions.

Ka:
Her first post was little more than an "I'm here" statement.
Her next post she talks about trying to avoid a Agan/Form/Nilp bandwagon and that was behind on the posts when she had voted. States she felt Agan had forced herself to look indecisivel with her vote. Mostly talked about wanting to avoid certain bandwagons from Day 1.
The next post she half defends Eonwe's voting placement as a simple cross post. She states being unsure about Mith as well Sally. She half suspects Agan, looks most probably on past experiences than anything else. Doesn't really hold any suspicions of Nilp unsure about Boro and Form. Voted for Eonwe out of indecision.

Elf-Warrior:
First post clarified gender.
Next voted for Eonwe with no time to explain.

Shasta:
First post of the day was mostly stating he was there.
Next post rates the village as such:

Suspicious: Eomer, Eonwe

Sort-Of Suspicious: Kath, Sally, Elf-warrior

Mediocre: Everyone not mentioned above or below this line -----------------------

Not-So Suspicious: Nogrod

Not Suspicious: Mith, Nerwen

Does some Nerwen translation next. Responds to a Nilp query and answers a question I had posed about wolf-on-wolf voting.
Makes a voting list and points out "this the second day in a row that Elf-Warrior's cast a vote for the person with the most votes with no explanation..."
Next is a deadline question.
Says Eonwe and Eomer look the most suspicions and says he wouldn't mind seeing Eonwe gone.
The next posts are answering rule questions and translation.
Finally a vote for Eonwe.

Eonwe

What? She started a bandwagon against an innocent!

In reference to Kath starting a bandwagon against Eonwe and Nilp's response to Kath doing wolf-on-wolf.
Next post is a defense of his cross posting with Eomer on voting for Mith.

You're right.In fact, it may have been Nilp that started that, then Nerwen joined in, making it the 3rd vote, which I think could (And maybe should) be classified as a bandwaggon.

Backtracks there about Kath starting a bandwagon. He had stated maybe Kath hadn't started it on purpose, but once called out by Eomer that it doesn't necessarily equal a bandwagon on the first vote he backs off.
The next two posts are fairly unhelpful. He responds to one of Nerwen's queries about conspiracy theories, stating it was a thrown away theory he made IC. Though I'm a bit confused as to what theory the were talking about.
Next he recaps the votes, somewhat saddened Nilp has voted for him.

To correct my last, post, I will say that maybe a bandwaggon is forming, and against me!

Most suspicious person on my list:
The Elf-Warrior

Votes for me after two others have, and with no reason either. Then again, THE Ka seemed like she didn't think I was guilty, but then voted me.



Elf-Warrior, if you don't sayy someting to convinve me otherwise in the next 30 minutes, I think I might have to vote you.

A vote for EW would certainly have been a self-preservation vote. But what made EW the most suspicious? Eonwe could have picked Agan to vote for who, like EW, had one vote.
Next he votes EW. At this point Eonwe led the votes as the lynch candidate by one vote. His vote for EW was most probably self-preservation.
Recaps the votes again a bit later.
The next is nothing more than verifying this was EW's second game.

What does this teach us? That I need to not be lazy and go back to Day 1 to dig deeper. I, however, probably won't. I admit to my own laziness and if I do that I may actually miss the vote as I dig deeper for answers that may not even be there anymore (given the addition of a new hacker and all).

But as far as yesterday is concerned Ka and EW seemed to vote fairly randomly. Nilp suspected Eonwe from the first post of the day. Shasta is much the same stating Eonwe as one of his most suspicious early on. Ka may be up to mischief voting on indecision for someone who had already garnered one vote. I'm unsure what to think about Shasta and Nilp.

And as for Eonwe. He was somewhat opposed with his own bandwagon from Day 1. And he voted most likely to save his skin on Day 2. Though why he picked EW is a bit of a mystery to me. I might have missed something important... He's quick to jump to his own defense over even the most minor of attacks.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Why Eomer and not Rikae? Because due to something someone else (I think it was actually you, Kitanna!) said, Rikae seems innocent to me based on her first-day Nerwen vote. Part of it, though, is that I've been suspicious of Eomer since Day 1 and this just adds fuel to the fire.

Fair enough. I was curious as to why Eomer jumped out at you over the others who voted for EW.

I'm a bit baffled as what to do.
I think Eonwe is up to no good.
I haven't completely dropped my suspicions of Agan, but I'm leaning more on cobbler rather than hacker due to what we've learned about Nerwen.
As far as Shasta and Eomer are concerned, did they stage it? Maybe. If not Eomer looks a bit worse to me. I base that on our colorful WW history, as he put it. I have seen many wolfish faces to Eomer and his behavior today raises my eyebrow, though I don't know how inclined to vote for him I am.
Ka and Nilp remains a mystery to me.
Those are the five who I've looked at the closest today. I'll probably dig around some more and try to uncover any outstanding clues to go off of. But chances are good I will vote for Eonwe. He has jumped out the most to me thus far.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Form

I sincerely hope, given the sheer number of EW votes, that I won't be considered odd for thinking there's a wolf hidden in them somewhere--although I'm actually inclined to think otherwise, given how absolutely bandwaggonish they are. Indeed, after Rikae's vote, they are all essentially tacked on: they neither assisted in getting EW dead (save insofar as they didn't increase the Eönwë count), nor did they come with much in the way of justification.

But the point is there are nine votes for the EW. All other voters stand up from that crowd so it's the safest place for a wolf...

This is going to be a long one... but mind you: it's you speaking here, not me.

So on Day2 the following took place (from the early Day to the end).

Form suspects EW for the timing of his vote.

Shasta doubts the x'ing of posts by Eönwë and Eomer and suspects EW's vote.

Nilp votes Eönwë: "He remains the most suspicious for me" (earlier point on him aside from the voting on Day1: "Eönwë is quite prickly toDAY. *rubs chin*").

Kitanna suspects most Eonwe who "voted not long after Eomer for Mith based on her vote for Sally who was the first to vote for Sixth (and the Elf-warrior for placing the third vote for Sixth).

Interestingly Nerwen says the following: "Eönwë does give some actual reason for his vote, but it looks like he's just picking up on things other people have said." And: "Neither does The Elf-warrior (explain his vote) – and he's pre-defensive. Not only that, unlike the others he's "randomly" casting the third vote on The Sixth Wizard, bringing him into the lead."

Kit suspects Eönwë for his vote coming out of the blue.

Rikae says: "The Elf-Warrior started ringing my alarm bells from his first post yesterDay, and his vote is one of the most evil looking I have ever seen." But makes a host of reservations after that. Doubts Shasta's implications of foul X'ing.

Form talks of the EW: "Elf-warrior's vote, as I have said, looks very bad. Not only did it solidly put Sixth in the lead--a lead he never lost, it was done for very vague reasons."

Nerwen: "It appears this is The Elf-Warrior's third game, and unless he was a wolf in his first, he has never been one. So... are his tactics too bold for a newbie-wolf? His vote looks extremely non-innocent, but perhaps he is the cobbler/spammer?"

Mith suspects EW's vote: "with such a wide field it was decisive and so anything but random."

Rikae says: "Eönwë's vote doesn't look particularly well-reasoned anyway." And: "If EW doesn't start speaking up in a helpful and non-evil manner very soon, I suggest we lynch him. He's contributing very little and what he does contribute exudes evil. "

Eomer thinks Eönwë might be the spammer.

Mith says: "Eonwe's post is odd but maybe too conspicuous for a wolf - it is very attention seeking to copy cat like that." Votes the EW for: "I don't know what he was doing with that vote but it wasn't random."

Eomer's analysis on all: "Eonwe: Seems like trouble, Elf Warrior: Almost certainly up to something. Not sure what."

Boro: I don't buy into Eonwe's vote for Mith as being a bandwagoning wolf.

The Ka defends Eönwë's integrity but votes Eönwë as well: "Only because out of my indecision, it’s the one I think know more about at the moment."

Aganzir analyses: "EW. I don't like him, either. But I'd like to point out that, if I remember correctly, the last time I played with him he was suspected for pretty much the same reasons and was innocent, so although suspicious, his behaviour isn't necessarily wolfish. But he definitely isn't of much help to the village, and if those are to be lynched, it should be done early." And: "Eönwë. I can't see anything that suspicious about him. Maybe because he's still relatively new to ww and somehow I believe he would be more apparent if a wolf."

EW votes Eönwë.

Agan commets EW's fast vote for Eönwë: "I am seriously tempted to vote for EW."

Shasta comments on the same issue: "Making this the second day in a row that Elf-Warrior's cast a vote for the person with the most votes with no explanation..."

And Eönwë about the EW: "Votes for me after two others have, and with no reason either."

Form says: "Eönwë has struck me as a rather annoying in his playing style, but this is more along the line of personalities than hard suspicions, and people rubbing each other the wrong way happens in WW. I have been accused of the same myself, and I think I should know better than to vote people off based on pure dislike." Votes the EW but talks merely of Mith and her connection to him... Then he adds: "Eönwë will not be much missed by me if he should go, but I am rather surprised that such attention has accrued to him. Overall, he strikes me as more non-useful than clearly malevolent."

Eomer votes the EW: "Agree with many others here. Elf-Warrior has to go. He is clearly up to no good"

Boro defends Eönwë: "I don't want to see Eonwe lynched" And adds: "Thus, I would rather vote for Elf-warrior than Eonwe. But, I caution against a counter-bandwagon here against EW."

Shasta comments: "I personally wouldn't mind seeing Eonwe gone, because he and Eomer still strike me as the most suspicious from yesterday. Elf-warrior isn't being actively unhelpful; maybe he's just having issues?"

Shasta votes for Eönwë for reasons "already stated".

Eönwë votes the EW.

Boro says: "Elf-Warrior's behavior surely is odd, but I agree that his behavior doesn't look like a hacker. It's not helpful, but the only reason I can see EW being a hacker is if they are sacrificing him."

Rikae votes for the EW: "Well, Elf Warrior seems to be making himself scarce. I say, let's get to the bottom of this"

Nerwolf says: "I can't really see any good reason not to vote The Elf-Warrior, after his latest effort"

Aganzir says: "I don't find it very likely EW is a wolf, but if he continues playing the way he does, he's only dead weight."

Boro: "in this case...There was Eonwe and Elf-warrior, of those two I would vote for Elf-warrior, but I would prefer to vote Nerwen"

Sally comes in: "Eon: Again, in the last game he was very quiet. But wasn't the last game his first? If I'm right about that, I'm going to ignore his change in talking level. On another level, people (okay, Form, etc.) have accused him of being unhelpful. I'm not saying I agree or not, but I think just because he's not terribly "useful" means that he's evil" And adds: "If we want to kill Eon, fine, but come up with a better reason than "he's not helpful.""

Nerwen votes the EW.

Sally votes the EW "of the three..."

Nogrod comments: "Both (Eönwë & EW) have played a bit too risky to be wolves but perhaps Eönwë more so. Although his outstanding activity might tell he's having a lupine role and he wishes to play a lot..."

Boro votes for the EW.

Agan votes for the EW: "Well not that it really matters anymore"


A few thoughts to follow...

[Nogrod]

Looking at the above list from yesterDay and adding a few other general feelings I'd say the following.

Suspicious:
Nilp
The Ka
Eönwë


Innocentish:
Aganzir
Boro
Sally
Shasta


Baffled about:
Mith
Eomer
Form
Kitanna
Dury

Although it need to be remembered that someone has changed sides last Night and these are only feelings from yesterDay.

I'm off to have fun with Lommy & Greenie and prepare some dinner to us. I*ll be back later.