Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Brinniel]

Deadline! Silence everyone!

It's a tie. Either Formendacil or Mithalwen will die.

[Aganzir]

How did you guess I'm grinning right now?

Though only at the absurdity of this day ending.

edit: whoops, xed with Brinn. Sorry, O Goddess! Will I be forgiven if I say your deadline post was very good?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

did I just create another tie?

Yes you did, you naughty boy! Tut tut tut!

edit: sorry Brinniel

[Brinniel]

Much of the day was spent speculating who Durelin could’ve possibly dreamt of.

“Well, Durelin’s attitude towards Kitanna has changed over the days so it seems there’s a good chance she dreamt her as innocent,” thought Shasta.
“Hey, we shouldn’t clear Kitanna of all wolfishness just because of that,” warned Nogrod.
“Meanwhile, you seem rather suspicious yourself, Shasta,” said Eomer.
“I think Mithalwen seems the most likely wolf here,” said Kitanna. “Even if Durelin didn’t dream of her, her suspicions could’ve added some pressure.”
“I think Durelin might’ve dreamt Formendacil as innocent on Night 1,” stated Boromir.
“That’s just silly,” replied Aganzir. “Look how strange Formendacil’s been acting in these last moments. He can’t be innocent!”
"I can't turn off the italics!" cried Rikae.

By the end of the day, while a few insisted on killing Shasta, it became a split tie between Mithalwen and Formendacil.
“How should we decide?” asked Aganzir.
“I know,” answered Shasta, reaching into his pocketsess. “I randomly have this die with me. Why don’t we roll it to see who we should lynch?”
“Sounds good,” Sally agreed. “Mithalwen will be odds and Formendacil will be evens. Two out of three rolls wins…or errr… loses.”

So Shasta rolled the die. The first roll landed on four. The Formendacil voters cheered. The second roll landed on five. The Mithalwen voters cheered. Then came the third roll. All the BDers leaned forward anxiously. The die landed on another five.
“Looks like we’ll be killing Mithalwen!” Eönwë cheered.
“Thank goodness,” said Formendacil, relieved. “I really didn’t feel like dying today.”
“I demand a re-roll!” Mithalwen shouted. “I think Shasta cheated…it’s probably a trick die.”
“But Shasta didn’t even vote for you,” spoke up Nogrod. “He wanted to lynch Formendacil.”

“C’mon, let’s kill her already,” said Kitanna as she threw a rock at Mithalwen.
She handed more rocks to other BDers and they proceeded to do the same.
“Ow! Ouch!” cried Mithalwen as each rock struck her.
Soon all eleven BDers were throwing rocks at Mithalwen.
“Harder!” ordered Eönwë. “She’s not dying fast enough!”
“I am getting VERY angry!” yelled Mithalwen with her teeth clenched.
“You think she’s gonna turn green any second now?” Sally asked Ka, who remained silent.

But instead of turning green, Mithalwen sprouted fur and teeth. She growled at her attackers. Now as a revealed werewolf, the BDers continued to throw rocks at her even faster and harder.
Finally, Formendacil threw the decisive blow when his rock hit a soft spot on her wolfish head. Mithalwen stumbled, then making a noise similar to a dying walrus, she collapsed in slow motion.

“Aha! At last we’ve lynched a werewolf,” Nogrod proclaimed.
“But what should we do with the body?” wondered Boromir.
“I’ve never eaten wolf before, but I’ve always imagined it would make quite a tasty meal,” spoke Eomer.
“I agree,” said Aganzir. “And it’s not like we have anything planned for supper anyway.”

So the BDers skinned the dead werewolf and cooked her for supper.
“Well it would be a shame not to use her soft fur,” Rikae noted.
And she went right to work at making a large blanket out of Mithalwen’s fur coat.
Once everything was ready, the eleven remaining BDers sat down to enjoy a filling supper as they took turns sharing the fur blanket while night fell upon them.

------------------------------------------------------------------

The Living:

Kitanna~the self-righteous know-it-all
Aganzir~non-anonymous neg-repper
Shastanis Althreduin~chatspeak translator
Boromir88~the one upper
Rikae~the person who tries to fake knowledge of the books and fails miserably
Eomer of the Rohirrim~easily-offended trendy
Nogrod~the wanna-be moderator
satansaloser2005~a fan of everything but Tolkien
THE Ka~Artful Dodger
Eönwë~conspiracy theorist
Formendacil~Tolkien Canonist

The Dead:

The Barrow-Wight~took up permanent residence in a barrow (mod)
The Sixth Wizard~ grammar Nazi~strung up in a tree (ordo)
McCaber~ does it 4 teh lulz~made the narration much more amusing than it originally was (ordo)
The Elf-Warrior~nitpicker~didn’t know how to float (ordo)
Nerwen~ rabid fangirl~willingly traded her life for an autographed Legolas poster (hacker/werewolf)
Kath~artiste~wrote her last poem (ordo)
Nilpaurion Felagund~ Ainulindalë Addict~had a mouthful of dynamite (ordo)
Durelin~ Unreliable RPG Addict~made a delicious s’more (moderator seer)
Mithalwen~ therapist~provided a satisfying meal while keeping her BDers warm (hacker/wolf)

--------------------------------------------------------------

Night 5 has begun.

Wolves may start talking. Gifteds do your thing. Everyone else remain silent.

[Brinniel]

By the time everyone was done with dinner, it was completely dark. While the BDers washed the dishes and prepared for bed, Ka began packing her bags.

“What are you doing?” asked Aganzir as she watched Ka haul her backpack out of the tent.
“You know, we may have killed one wolf, but there’s still two left,” Rikae told her.
“I know,” Ka replied. “But all this lynch someone everyday business is rather repetitive, don’t you think? I’m bored with it, and there’s better things I could be doing.”
“Like what?” Eomer asked.
“Like working….that’s much more useful than anything Barrow-Down related. And at least at work I won’t have the risk of getting killed each day and night.” The other BDers rolled their eyes at Ka.
“How do we know you’re not a hacker?” asked Kitanna.
“Because if were one, I wouldn’t be leaved,” Ka answered simply. “Bye everyone! Good luck catching them werewolves!”
And the Ka picked up her backpack and walked out of the camp.

Ka quickly cursed herself for forgetting to bring a flashlight. But she was too proud to go back, so she continued to stumble through the dark forest. Only moments after leaving, she came across a division in the path.
“Which way do I go? Right or left?” she wondered to herself.
Ka couldn’t remember which way she had come from upon first arriving at the camp. That had been too many days ago and she had followed the others in front of her.
“I think I came from….this way,” she decided and continued forward choosing the left path.
Unfortunately for poor Ka, without a flashlight, she did not see the large signs in front of her. The sign with the arrow pointing right read “WAY OUT” while the one that pointed left read “CERTAIN DEATH.”

The camp finished cleaning up the camp for the night without Ka in silence.
Several moments after she had left, Sally finally spoke up: “Ka does know not to turn left…right?”
The other BDers stared at her, uncertain. Suddenly a loud “Aaaaaiiiiiiiiiieeeeeeeeeee” came from the distance followed by a SPLAT.
“I guess not,” Nogrod replied.

The BDers ran towards the source of the sound to find themselves standing at the ledge of a cliff. They shone their flashlights at the bottom of the drop where they could vaguely see what remained of Ka.
“Well at least we now know she was telling the truth,” said Formendacil.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

The loss of their mate Mithalwen was a rough blow to the werewolves, even if the extra death of an innocent sort of helped make things better. But they had to learn to go on without her, and so they would.

This night the wolves didn’t even have to seek out their next victim. She was already outside her tent, skipping around the camp while cheerfully humming to herself. The wolves approached her and as a twig snapped, she turned around only slightly surprised.

“Oh, hello guys,” she said to them happily. “Up to more mischief tonight? Who you gonna kill this time?”
“You,” the two wolves replied.
“Really?” Their victim was delighted. “It’s an honour to be your next meal, if I may say so myself. The others…they don’t even realize it.” The BDer lied down in the dirt and spread out her arms and legs. “So where do you want to begin? At my feet? Or maybe you want to take an arm? Pick anywhere….I just ask you save my eyes for last. I’d really like to watch you work, if you don’t mind.”
The wolves stared at each other, confused.
“Uhh…I think we’ll start at the middle,” one finally replied.

And so the wolves tore open their victim’s torso. The BDer watched with much excitement as they ate her liver and chewed on her intestines while she proceeded to mutter something incomprehensible.
But the wolves could understand her words as she took her last breath: “Special deals on Blackberry Pearl 8110….only $150…..comes in black or red…” And then she went still.

Suddenly the wolves realised what they had just done.
“I think I’ve lost my appetite,” said one wolf.
“Are you serious?” asked the other.
“Nah, I’m just kidding,” the wolf replied. “It’d be a waste of meat not to eat.”
And the wolves continued to tear apart their victim.

--------------------------------------------------------

The next morning the BDers found what little that remained of Sally lying in the dirt. Her arms and legs were spread out and there was no sign of a struggle. At her feet, the BDers found a large can of Spam.

Sally was the spammer.

----------------------------------------------------------

The Living:

Kitanna~the self-righteous know-it-all
Aganzir~non-anonymous neg-repper
Shastanis Althreduin~chatspeak translator
Boromir88~the one upper
Rikae~the person who tries to fake knowledge of the books and fails miserably
Eomer of the Rohirrim~easily-offended trendy
Nogrod~the wanna-be moderator
Eönwë~conspiracy theorist
Formendacil~Tolkien Canonist

The Dead:

The Barrow-Wight~took up permanent residence in a barrow (mod)
The Sixth Wizard~ grammar Nazi~strung up in a tree (ordo)
McCaber~ does it 4 teh lulz~made the narration much more amusing than it originally was (ordo)
The Elf-Warrior~nitpicker~didn’t know how to float (ordo)
Nerwen~ rabid fangirl~willingly traded her life for an autographed Legolas poster (hacker/werewolf)
Kath~artiste~wrote her last poem (ordo)
Nilpaurion Felagund~ Ainulindalë Addict~had a mouthful of dynamite (ordo)
Durelin~ Unreliable RPG Addict~made a delicious s’more (moderator seer)
Mithalwen~ therapist~provided a satisfying meal while keeping her BDers warm (hacker/wolf)
THE Ka~Artful Dodger~took a wrong turn (ordo)
satansaloser2005~a fan of everything but Tolkien~suffered from a severe case of Stockholm Syndrome (spammer/cobbler)

-------------------------------------------------------

Day 5 has begun.

Wolves stop PMing. Everyone may now discuss.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, I guess the dream I had last night was wrong. XD I had this really weird dream that Nogrod and Form were dancing around a campfire, and that Eomer was the spammer for some reason.

This certainly explains why Sally attempted to save Mith twice, though.

^Early post in case the storm knocks out my internet.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

That's good news.

Really must go to bed now, but I was working out some stuff earlier. Conclusion was that it would be a fair idea for a wolf team sans Shasta to leave me alive in the hope that the village could lynch him. Also, killing me might make Shasta probably innocent in the eyes of the village, if I killed no-one with me in the night (because I would probably have hunted him while being killed).

So I'm not gunning for you based on this Shasta. Though some clever player will probably now demonstrate exactly why last night's kill incriminates you further.

[Rikae]

Well, it looks like things are finally getting better for us (no thanks to me). Sorry, Formendacil - I can only assume from the way Aganzir and Shasta followed my vote yesterDay, one (or both) of them is evil and you are innocent. I did find it odd at the time that they were so eager to follow my vote: I only wished to get my suspicions out in the open and vote accordingly, but didn't really feel I'd "made a case", so to speak, to be acted on that day!

I'm almost certainly going to vote for one of those two toDay. Aganzir's little exchange about "grinning" was disturbing enough yesterDay...
actually, come to think of it, we may have both our remaining wolves. If Shasta was not a wolf with Aganzir, why would she have voted for Form when she could have saved Mith more easily, and less conspicuously, by voting for Shasta? And why would Shasta prefer to vote for Form to save himself, instead of for Mith?
It may be my misguided suspicion worked out for the best in the long run (thanks to the roll of the dice, anyway).

EDIT: X'd with a wolf and a hunter.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

That's good news.

Really must go to bed now, but I was working out some stuff earlier. Conclusion was that it would be a fair idea for a wolf team sans Shasta to leave me alive in the hope that the village could lynch him. Also, killing me might make Shasta probably innocent in the eyes of the village, if I killed no-one with me in the night (because I would probably have hunted him while being killed).

So I'm not gunning for you based on this Shasta. Though some clever player will probably now demonstrate exactly why last night's kill incriminates you further.

Wait, the Sally-kill incriminates me? o_O Why don't you go ahead and explain, Eomer, I'm dying to hear this one.

Edit: Oh, whoa, X'd with Rikae.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You misunderstand me, Shasta. I say the sally kill does NOT incriminate you, but I half-expect a clever person to make me look silly by proving how it does.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

And why would Shasta prefer to vote for Form to save himself, instead of for Mith?
It may be my misguided suspicion worked out for the best in the long run (thanks to the roll of the dice, anyway).

Well, for one, it didn't matter WHO I voted yesterday, someone was going to suspect me. Think about it; if I'd voted Mith, at least one person would have said (and I think in fact did say, yesterday) that Mith could have expected to have been lynched and told her fellow wolves to vote her.

For another, Form swiftly grew in suspicion for me near the end of yesterday. By then I thought Mith and Form were both wolves, and figured Mith was obvious enough to everyone, but Form had only garnered suspicion from a few.

In fact, I still think both our remaining wolves are Nogrod and Form.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

You misunderstand me, Shasta. I say the sally kill does NOT incriminate you, but I half-expect a clever person to make me look silly by proving how it does.

Oh, I see. Thank you for clearing that up, because I did misunderstand you.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Well, for one, it didn't matter WHO I voted yesterday, someone was going to suspect me. Think about it; if I'd voted Mith, at least one person would have said (and I think in fact did say, yesterday) that Mith could have expected to have been lynched and told her fellow wolves to vote her.

Sure, you still could have been a wolf in that case, but you wouldn't be any more likely because of your vote. The vote you *did* make, however, was one that almost saved Mith.

Originally Posted by Shasta

For another, Form swiftly grew in suspicion for me near the end of yesterday. By then I thought Mith and Form were both wolves, and figured Mith was obvious enough to everyone, but Form had only garnered suspicion from a few.

That doesn't explain why you would prefer lynching Form to lynching Mith. What exactly made you change your mind on him, anyway?

[Nogrod]

Rikae is right in that the last minutes of yesterDay were just completely insane. We should read them once again. I'll go and do it myself but I'd encourage others to do the same. Many eyes see better than just a few.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Sure, you still could have been a wolf in that case, but you wouldn't be any more likely because of your vote. The vote you *did* make, however, was one that almost saved Mith.

Yes, but it also almost doomed Form, and like I say, Mith would have been lynched soon in any case. How do you know that I didn't almost doom a Formwolf at the same time I almost saved a Mithwolf?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Well, for one, it didn't matter WHO I voted yesterday, someone was going to suspect me.

That's the way a wolf thinks...

Originally Posted by Shasta

By then I thought Mith and Form were both wolves, and figured Mith was obvious enough to everyone, but Form had only garnered suspicion from a few.

So? If you had an obvious wolf in your head and saw others were also suspected you decided not to lynch the clear wolf and decided to try someone you had only started to suspect at the last minutes? Quite an interesting way to behave for an innocent...

I'm sorry Shasta but I'm afraid I am growing more and more confident on your lupinity. But let's read and think first - and there's the other one to catch as well.

EDIT: X'd with Shasta

[Aganzir]

I am starting to like these wolves.
(And of course I am a wolf trying to bluff by laughing at them.)

Originally Posted by Rikae

Sorry, Formendacil - I can only assume from the way Aganzir and Shasta followed my vote yesterDay, one (or both) of them is evil and you are innocent. I did find it odd at the time that they were so eager to follow my vote: I only wished to get my suspicions out in the open and vote accordingly, but didn't really feel I'd "made a case", so to speak, to be acted on that day!

As you can see from my posts, I wanted to vote for someone else than Mith yesterday (and actually I've been more or less suspecting Form quite long). Nogrod was my preference, but when there came a chance to get Form lynched, I was happy to vote for him. I was wrong about Mith, but her guilt doesn't make me feel more confident about Form's innocence - at least until I have read his posts once again, which I'm not going to do now.

What was so disturbing about my grinning, Rikae?

Just for the record, not that anyone's going to care about this too much anyway, but I have voted for every single fellow wolf of mine that was ever lynced. So you should be more worried about me if I had voted for Mith.

I guess I owe apologies to Nogrod. From now on I will always trust your judgement.

My wolf guesses are still Form and Kitanna. Though my opinion is subject to change when I read through their posts later.

I will hang around for a few minutes and then go to sleep.

edit: xed since Eomer

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That's the way a wolf thinks...

So? If you had an obvious wolf in your head and saw others were also suspected you decided not to lynch the clear wolf and decided to try someone you had only started to suspect at the last minutes? Quite an interesting way to behave for an innocent...

I'm sorry Shasta but I'm afraid I am growing more and more confident on your lupinity. But let's read and think first - and there's the other one to catch as well.

EDIT: X'd with Shasta

It's also true, tell me it's not.

And who's to say there'd be another chance to lynch Form today? I saw a chance to lynch someone I suspected of wolfery. I don't see what's so suspicious about that.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't see what's so suspicious about that.

That's what I'm going to try and find out Shasta - whether it is as suspicious as I now feel it is. It will take a moment to go through yesterDay as I'm quite slow in this but I'll give it a look next.

[Nogrod]

Shasta yesterDay...

Shasta:
#353
Opens with just ”Lovely” – after we had lost our seer.

#355
Durelin analysis – followed by a suggestion: Nogrod might be dreamt of hacker & Kitanna was a dreamt of innocent.

#358
Complains my use of the term “overdoing”.

#363, #365
Row with Eomer continues from yesterday.

#403
Complains people are thinking he’s pushing his interpretation of Dury’s dream on Kitanna on them.

#406
Explains why he posts a lot early (convenient timezones). Corrects Eönwë’s vote list.

#410
Gets ready to back off from “Dury dreamt of Kitanna” but reminds that doesn’t refute his “Dury dreamt of Nogrod”. Asks whether someone has refuted that “as well” (I see some irony here…).

#418
Comments on Eönwë’s suspicion list as being unimaginative…

#444 (twenty one minutes before the deadline)
“If it helps, Form, Nogrod is pinging my radar as well. :P I wouldn't be averse to voting him... if I didn't have to save myself.”

#449
Explains the selling of the car-thing again (yes, I asked…).

#465 (four minutes before the deadline)
Comments on Eönwë’s cry about a tie in voting: “Continuously stating the obvious is rarely endearing”. Greets PhantomAgan.

#472 (two minutes before)
“This speaks of oddness to me; When the possibility of a Form-wagon rears its ugly head, suddenly both Nogrod and Form become decisive.”

#473 (two minutes before)
Votes Form; “Oh heck... did I just create another tie?”

---
A few thoughts.

I'll leave the Shasta - Eomer row for now.

He seems to be complaining and commenting a lot - especially to Eönwë. Also he explains his actions a lot.

Up to two minutes before deadline he hasn't suspected Form at all. Indeed he suggested Form he could join his possible Nogrod-wagon twenty minutes before the DL but that was his only mentioning of him.

Also, I'm a bit at loss with his point on post #472. Would you care to tell what you meant by that "becoming decisive"?

Gah. Some things really look suspicious, first and foremost the kind of a way he seems to wait for any decent opportunity to go for a target that could save Mith without looking too suspicious. I mean: he doesn't so much take part in the late discussion but rather throws in redundancies. Also he's very careful not to bring forwards any names he'd suspect (but me and that he does one time in the late discussion) like he was waiting for the "target of opportunity" - which he then finds in Form.

Okay. That's reading the data with a Devil's advocate -lens.

I'm not sure (well, when you can be in WW?), but I'd say he's topping my suspicion list at the moment. Although I'm afraid there are going to be a few others with him as well before the Day closes. There were such interesting things in the voting and I'd need to see the leads that voting might give me to say more of them.

[Nogrod]

The voting and the reasons for them (all times are in GMT)

12.06 Kitanna – Mith
(based on Durelin’s list & vote)

3.16 Eomer – Shasta
(after getting confident on it – a long history of arguments behind)

8.54 MithWolf – Shasta (Mith1, Shasta2)
(self defence)

9.22 Eönwë – Mith (Mith2, Shasta2)
(in the end because Eomer has missed voting Mith for two Days in a row even if he suspected her heavily in the beginning)

The last minutes…
10.51 Rikae – Formendacil (Mith2, Shasta2, Form1)
(bad feeling / hunch the Day earlier, “you not only are still giving me a bad feeling, you are now starting to look more definitely evil”. +” I was just waiting to see if my suspicions would be confirmed by your behavior, and... guess what”)

10.54 Sally the cobbler – Formendacil (Mith2, Shasta2, Form2)
(gut feeling, “just seems right to be a wolf”)

10.56 Nogrod – Mith (Mith3, Shasta2, Form2)
(“Not only what has been said about Dury - Mith and Nerwen - Mith connections but also the way she acted toDay - and the Days before. Also she didn't say she's innocent which she normally does when innocent but felt like a resignated wolf”.)

10.56 Form – Mith (Mith4, Shasta2, Form2)
(sticking to his guns)

10.57 Boro – Shasta (Mith4, Shasta3, Form2)
(“I don't think I would be able to take another day of Shasta and Eomer battling”.)

10.57 Aganzir – Form (Mith4, Shasta3, Form3)
(“I've grown so suspicious of him in these last few minutes”.)

10.58 Shasta – Form (Mith4, Shasta3, Form4)
(Oh heck... did I just create another tie?)


The three last ones do raise an eybrow... and we have only two wolves left!

I'm not saying there couldn't be a more easy-voting wolf lurking somewhere in the earlier votes but I'd say we have at least one in the last three.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also, I'm a bit at loss with his point on post #472. Would you care to tell what you meant by that "becoming decisive"?

Pretty simply, it seemed to be that both you and Form were extremely indecisive on who to vote for, saying "well, that person seems suspicious, but then so does that person, but I'm not saying that person's innocent either..." but then suddenly Form has two votes and is in danger of being lynched; immediately both you and Form vote for Mith.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Pretty simply, it seemed to be that both you and Form were extremely indecisive on who to vote for, saying "well, that person seems suspicious, but then so does that person, but I'm not saying that person's innocent either...

I think your description fits Form but I thought I was pretty open about voting either you or Mith and preferring Mith as I was more convinced of her guilt.

Yes I thought Form -wagon was a stupid idea at that moment and it may have made me vote a minute or too earlier just to bring the voting back to the track. I do not say Form couldn't be a wolf but at that moment I thought we had a wolf in our hands and one just doesn't want to lose those opportunities. Luckily you three last voters were not able to twist that vote...

I mean I do disagree on this principle with you: if you have a wolf, lynch her/him immediately. Everything can happen and nothing is more unpredictable than a game of WW. So you may not get a second chance.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So you may not get a second chance.

Originally Posted by Shasta

And who's to say there'd be another chance to lynch Form today?

[Formendacil]

Well, I hope no one will take it as utterly amiss if I rage a little at the sheer idiocy of last night's bandwaggon. It struck me as one thing to garner suspicion over the course of the day, get a few votes, and maybe look lynchable by evening... but to have this (not including Rikae's foreseeable vote) bandwaggon come roaring at me in the last few minutes of the Day, putting me not so much into a second place position as a position just as liable for death as Mith's... may I say that, from a subjective viewpoint anyway, I feel very hard-done by.

Mind you, I hardly expect to get away scot-free today... after my warnings yesterday that the second-placers of a bandwaggon race should not be let off lightly the following day, I'd be a hypocrite to say otherwise... but I really would like to know what came out of that yesterday.

Shasta, for reasons already expressed by Nogrod, does indeed strike me as quite malevolent at the moment, and even if I had not been the personal recipient of his voting, I think I'd be at least a little concerned. To come at me, out of the blue, like that in the last moments as a bandwaggon was endangering [Mith[/b]... well, it looks really bad.

On the other hand, I spent most of the Night cycle ready to declaim him as the Cobbler on account of that, so I'm not 100% ready to call him lupine today, but I do think him an excellent candidate.

Really, the only reason I'm alive and Mith isn't is complete chance. A roll of the dice the wrong way, and you'd be spending a THIRD Day trying to lynch her to figure out her guilt...

Still, with yet another RL innocent death, we're having to face the numbers... but having glanced at Brinn's last Mod-post, we're not as bad as I thought. We're down to 9 people, 2 of whom are wolves, which means that the village can afford to lose another innocent, which I am terribly afraid will happen, since if I am the central subject of speculation and voting, you will kill another innocent.

[Formendacil]

Oh, and the thought also occurs to me...

Sally clearly had Mith pegged as one of the wolves. Would she have tried to save her otherwise? Would she, in fact, have made me this much more conspicuous if she thought there were a good chance I was a wolf? Bad enough one wolf is on the block... why make it certain another is. Far better, in such a case, to start the Nogrod bandwaggon (assuming him to be innocent) that enough of us were rambling about... though I suppose that would have been too late at that point. Still, bad enough Mith was clearly close to death... why make it two-wolf race?

That being said, I'm rather ashamed to be looking for the help of a dead cobbler to prove my innocence.

[Eönwë]

Wow. I never thought that would happen. And the cobbler being killed.

There eally have been too many RL deaths so far.


Ps. This is a quiet day.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Aganzir and Shasta look very evil and wolvish to me.

As has been pointed out, Shasta showed no suspicion of Formendacil at any stage. He even showed willingness to conspire with him to lynch Nogrod. Then he votes Formendacil right at the end. This appears to have been a desperate attempt at an unlikely save for Mithalwen.

Aganzir, though, I had not suspected at all until just now, when I read the events of Day 4 more carefully. I have some references.

p400: Aganzir defends Shasta. She really, really thinks he's no wolf.

p445: ''I'll eat my hat with feathers and all if neither Mith nor Nog is a wolf, and today I'd prefer trying Nog''

Yet she chose not to gain the certainty, and voted Formendacil.

p464: Decides that our chances are better with Form than with Mith. Simply because another candidate has 2 votes, she is deciding not to lynch Mith or Nogrod, and thus achieve certainty.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There's also one more thing about Shasta, from quite a while ago:

p144:

Suspicious: Eomer, Eonwe

Sort-Of Suspicious: Kath, Sally, Elf-warrior

Mediocre: Everyone not mentioned above or below this line -----------------------

Not-So Suspicious: Nogrod

Not Suspicious: Mith, Nerwen

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mith and Nerwen, eh?

[Aganzir]

I think Kitanna could be a wolf.

Her first post looks forced. I don't know... I guess I first seized on it because it reminds me so much of how a wolfish me could post on day 1.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Sometimes in the nothing the most is said.

I fail to see what you are referring to. Your response to Nerwen meets the criteria of communicating a little with a fellow wolf so as not to look like team members.

On day 1 she thought the A/N/F brawl brought up by Nerwen was moderately suspicious, but at the same time she found Nerwen herself moderately suspicious, too. She was inclined to think there was one or two hackers among us three (me, Nilp and Form, that is), and I really fail to see why. If we have talked to one another on day 1, why on earth does it make us hackers? She was suspicious also of EW who was quick to jump to his own defense, and Sixth, based on gut feeling, who advocated voting for Nerwen, probably IC.
Then she voted for Nerwen because she posted often but sayid little. In her defense I must say, though, that her vote post didn't look like she was trying to discourage others to vote for Nerwen, although she wasn't trying to encourage voting for her either.

I don't really know why a hacker would vote a fellow hacker as early as on day 1. Of course it would be a good plan since few would believe they actually did it, but it's risky as well. And Kitanna has been pretty suspicious even before the new wolf was turned (actually she's been less suspicious after that).
Except... On day 2 she asks Shasta (who was talking about Kath) if he thinks there would be wolf-on-wolf votes so early. The improbability of wolf-on-wolves on day 1 should make Kitanna look more innocent if/when Nerwen was to be revealed a wolf.

Originally Posted by Kit

A worrying truth indeed. Nerwen's posts are one liners, ICs, with an occasional post that clarifies or half-heatedly accuses.

Would a wolf continue suspecting her, especially as there are others who do it also?

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Most suspicious
Eonwe- Voted not long after Eomer for Mith based on her vote for Sally who was the first to vote for Sixth
Boro- Next vote for Sixth
Elf-warrior- Third vote for Sixth
Agan-Tied Eonwe and Sixth, though a tie doesn't result in a double-lynch a tie remains a tie. If nothing else it confuses and muddles things especially close to deadline.
This is based purely on when and how they voted for, not their reasoning behind it.

Agan & Eonwe's look the most suspicious to me based on timing. Though I'm going to read through their posts before deciding fully how I feel about either.

Then there's this, the most suspicious of the "bandwagoners". Next vote for someone? Third vote for someone? Ties someone? Ties are confusing? What on earth is suspicious about that? Honestly, I can't see that as innocent reasoning.
I think it was Nog who had a good point that that's an easy way to add pressure on those who are suspected a little already (Eönwë and me, mainly).
Eönwë is suspicious because his vote is so neat and tidy, comes out of the blue and right after Eomer's vote. And votes for Mith, mind you.
I am suspicious because I accused Sixth of joking suspicions (which, as I already explained, weren't apparently such), I seemed to have a case on Nerwen rather than Sixth, if Sixth was a wof he would (in Kit's opinion) have returned instead of disappearing, and I base my case on Sixth's only post (what did other Sixth-voters base their cases on, then?).

On day 2 she votes for me, despite feeling more confident in mischief on Nerwen's part than when voting for her the previous day, but not feeling confident enough. My suspicions (against Sixth) feel wrong and don't make sense. Or was it just because I was going after Nerwen that day myself?

I have no idea about Shasta anymore - good points were brought up about his yesterday behaviour, so I will treat Shasta as a possible wolf now in relation to Kit.

On day 3 Kitanna comments on Eomer/Shasta row, saying neither of them smells like a rose, but she finds Eomer slightly stranger-looking and explains it "Simply because of my, as he called it, colorful WW past with him."
Later she wonders if Shasta and Eomer could have staged their row. Maybe, and if not, Eomer looks worse to her. Because of their colourful past, and his behaviour raises her eyebrow. Now, if Shasta was turned on night 3, this makes Kitanna look worse. She tries not to defend Shasta, but doesn't really accuse Eomer either - it's rather that she adds her vote for the case "look at Eomer before you look at Shasta".
She's also inclined to vote for Eönwë, who's "up to no good", and later votes for him. Eönwë went after Mith.

Originally Posted by Kit

I'd like to look at Durelin's posts myself to see what I can draw from this theory.

This worries me. That myself. "I want to go through Durelin's posts and see that nothing that incriminates my fellows too much is revealed!"

Originally Posted by Kit

If she did dream of Nogrod as a hacker it would make sense why she never voted or cast "damning" evidence onto him. That would have ended her life sooner or drawn her out so she had to reveal her role before she was ready.

I'm pretty sure Nog isn't a hacker now... And Kit just explains how it's possible that Dur found Nog a hacker although she didn't cast "damning" evidence onto him.

She is inclined to believe, though, that Durelin dreamed or was planning to dream of Mithwolf, which caused her death. But if the wolves thought it likely that the seer had dreamed of one of them, and especially if that one was Mith, they could well have decided to sacrifice her in order for others to look better.
Or then she wanted to go through Durelin's posts herself so as to be among the first to suspect that she dreamt of Mithwolf, and therefore look better.

Kit votes for Mith. In response to Eomer's wondering why he wasn't killed she says it points at Shasta being a wolf. But, in my opinion, it can also point at wolves being afraid of Eomer and wanting to frame Shasta.

**

I won't have time to go through Form's posts, at least not to this extent, today. I'll have to leave in less than an hour and won't probably have a chance to come back.

Anyway, right now Kitanna is my top suspect. Though I have been so wrong about everyone that I don't really know how much I should trust my judgement anymore.

Next I'm planning to go back to day 1 and see if I could find at least some innocents and hopefully also a wolf given their interaction with Nerwen and Mith. I dare a guess that Mith was a wolf from the beginning.

[Boromir88]

Well, well... If Boro is still alive after a Day or two I say you people should lynch him... Just an idea...~Nogrod

I hate when people say this, because it's just an easy way to set someone up if they're still alive. It's like saying "If Boro isn't dead by Night 6 he's a wolf, because the wolves wouldn't leave an innocent Boro alive for that long." Very clever way of setting someone up, and coming from you Nogrod?

I want to look at the last couple days of posts between Nogrod and Mith. Nogrod is not shy of lynching a fellow wolf if he thinks it will benefit him, and Mith isn't shy of sacrficing herself if she thinks she's dead meat.

I highly suspect a wolf in the Formendacil bandwagon.

Rikae
Sally
Agan
Shasta

It's interesting that sally voted for to make it a 3-way tie between Mith, Shasta, and Form. What does this say about Form and Shasta? Form said he feels ashamed by using the cobbler to argue his own innocence, but this could reveal something. I would say without question sally believed Mith was a wolf, and why she's saved Mith (or tried to) in her voting. But did she also think Shasta was a wolf too? If she's trying to save Mith and thinks Shasta is innocent wouldn't she vote Shasta? Maybe she thought both were wolves and she was trying to save both? Or maybe being the cobbler she just wanted to have a 3-way tie to mess things up even more.

I also think that if one wolf is trying to save their buddy, then the last wolf is trying to be the one who survives and tries votes for Mith, trying to look innocent. This would point to Kitanna, Eonwe, Nogrod, and Form.

edit: crossed with Agan

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Mith, day 1

Anyway can't decide about Kitanna & Nerwen and Form .. but Sally's vote just seems a bit too parasitic... at least Kitanna and Form stuck their heads above the parapet.

I don't know if this means she couldn't decide which one of them to vote or that she couldn't decide what to think of them. But if she was planning to vote for one of them, I think the wolves could have had a plan that they would accuse one another on day 1, and therefore also Kitanna's vote for Nerwen doesn't necessarily speak for her innocence.

Eönwë suspected Nerwen to some extent for not doing anything useful and voted for Mith:

Because of the way she posts, as if she's hiding behind hersef being IC but not at the same time. Hard to explain what I mean. Also, her attitude seems slightrly suspicious

Eomer and Nog kept going after Mith for long. Although Nogwolf is capable of killing his fellows, I'm not sure if he would have started it already on day 1.

Originally Posted by Shasta

In fact, Eomer's been suspicious of Mith since before her vote (#64). Hmm...

Why that hmm? What were you thinking?

Like Eomer said already, Shasta found both Nerwen and Mith innocent.

Ok, I don't have time to do more but I post what little I have managed to gather by now. It would be lovely if someone else could check the rest.

Sorry to be of little use today but RL calls.

++ Kitanna

If you decide to lynch me, I hope you will at least consider her later.

Oh and I forgot to comment on this in my previous post.

Originally Posted by Form

Mind you, I hardly expect to get away scot-free today

Why? I think the fact that you were tried to lynch instead of Mith should make you look more innocent and us who voted for you suspicious? Or is it just that a wolf always thinks he's suspected more than he really is?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm not sure both Shasta and Aganzir would have voted Formendacil at the end (were they both wolves). I'm thinking only one is. Actually, that's a good spot Agan; I remember Shasta defending Mith there. I must say, though, that your case against Kitanna does not convince me. It seems a bit too ... constructed, if you like.

[Rikae]

I'm leaning toward thinking Aganzir more wolfish than Shasta. Looking at Shasta yesterDay already made me more inclined to forgive his odd behavior, but Aganzir's vote really seems to have come out of nowhere. Her behavior toDay seems very much like a typical wolf who is under some pressure - her case aganst Kitanna seems rather forced (especially the "myself" bit) and the make a case, vote, and leave pattern is a tactic I've used myself as a cornered wolf - throwing something out there for the village to chew on (she even encourages us to look into it more) and then dropping out of sight and, hopefully, out of mind.
Also, the way she deals with Shasta toDay is so ambiguous, it really has me thinking even more they may be wolves together. She could simply go after him as an easy way to get herself out of danger, and might even do so as a wolf, but it looks as though she's trying to protect her last packmate by drawing suspicion elsewhere, while making wishy-washy statements about him to cover herself, should he be lynched.

[Nogrod]

I'm just a bit concerned about you Boro... You seem to be the only one around who has not been suspected the whole game and you live still. Also I'm pretty much positive you would love to pay me back the one game I managed to fool you nicely and I'm in no way wishing it to take place in this game...

But the actual reason that made me say it aloud yesterDay was your amazing turn-around vote for Shasta - and the reason given ("I don't think I would be able to take another day of Shasta and Eomer battling.") just felt bad. I understand you were at least partially joking there but somehow the fact you made that kind of joke there worries me as much. You had talked of lynching Mith all Day and come forwards with reasons for it and then in the tight spot you try to get her off the hook...

Also, were you an innocent I'd think you would have commented the situation unfolding after your vote - and the ill consequences it had of making it possible neither Mith or Shasta would be lynched - but you stayed away. I somehow feel bad about that too.


But don't you worry. I think I may have even better candidates toDay and I'd need to really look at your posting and actions before getting confident in anything like a case on you.


As I tend to agree with Rikae on Agan's case on Kitanna being more a forced reaction of a wolf than a genuine trial of finding one I'd be willing to look at her more closely - and Shasta once more - toDay. Her grin in the end of yesterDay just gives me creeps.

And yes, Boro has been a staunch defender of Aganzir... hmm...

[Kitanna]

This, unfortunately, is my only post today (work destroys all )
And because of that I was limited to looking at the end of yesterday and today's posts.

Highly Suspicious - Shasta
He tied Form and Mith. If he was looking to be self-preserving it would have been easier to vote Mith ahead than create another tie. When he voted Mith, was at four votes and Form and himself were at three each. That seems like cobbler behavior, but since the cobbler is now dead and gone...
He also tries to make a case against Nogrod on the grounds of indecision.

Pretty simply, it seemed to be that both you and Form were extremely indecisive on who to vote for, saying "well, that person seems suspicious, but then so does that person, but I'm not saying that person's innocent either..." but then suddenly Form has two votes and is in danger of being lynched; immediately both you and Form vote for Mith.

Form's vote was pretty self-preserving and Nogrod had long suspected Mith of wolvery. I don't see Shasta having much of a case here.

Moderately Suspicious - Agan
I have suspected Agan of being the cobbler, but even though the cobbler is dead I still hold onto some suspicion. I don't think Shasta and Agan are both wolves that participated in the Form bandwagon. If one is innocent, then I believe the other is guilty.

Not Very Suspicious - Nogrod, Eonwe
I have a nagging feeling about Nogrod. He looks more innocent to me, but I'm not one to ignore gut feelings because they've been right from time to time.
For Eonwe I'm still holding some suspicions I've had for a while. They've only lessened because I have other people to worry about.

Not Suspicious - Eomer, Form
Since the cobbler is dead I have no reason to doubt his claim as Hunter.
I have never really suspected Form, but the bandwagon against him seemed like an attempt to ease pressure off a wolf onto an innocent. Rikae's vote was no surprise. I'm unsure what to think about Agan's. But Shasta's didn't seem right to me.

Unsure - Boro, Rikae
I haven't been able to form a solid opinion of either since the game started.

++ Shasta

[Formendacil]

And here I thought I'd have reams to catch up on..

Well, I'm both flattered and a little surprised, Rikae, that you've apparently decided to drop the "Form is a wolf" thought for the moment, although given the low postage today, that might just be a case of "have not yet mentioned", since you were clearly responding to the general trend of "Shasta and Again: which is a wolf thought?"

Myself, I'm very much inclined to think Shasta lupine, and while it may be personal grudge getting in the way of more reasoned thinking, at this point I do not foresee voting for anyone else--barring perhaps another out-of-the-blue bandwaggon against me.

I agree that if Shasta is a wolf, then Aganzir very probably isn't... although she's certainly looking suspicious in the interim. If, perhaps, Shasta isn't the wolf, then Agan certainly bears further innocence, but in the meantime, I'll take my continued instinct that, despite her malevolence, Agan is innocent as a confirmation that Shasta probably is.

Back later, towards the deadline...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Highly Suspicious - Shasta
He tied Form and Mith. If he was looking to be self-preserving it would have been easier to vote Mith ahead than create another tie. When he voted Mith, was at four votes and Form and himself were at three each.

That's a good point indeed - and it lead mo to re-read once again that stuff in the end of the previous Day.


The last three voters must all have been aware of Sallycobbler's vote after which the situation was: Mith2, Shasta2, Form2 - all even.

Okay then myself and Form voted at the same minute on 10.56.

I already told I was about to do that in any case and that I didn't like the way the voting was heading and decided to act. Form I think had at least self-preservation issues behind his vote and looking back at the Day it looked quite self-evident Mith would be the one to be lynched. If I remember it correctly he had also thought of voting Shasta (or me). Now were Form a fellow-wolf of Mith, voting Shasta would have been a decent idea he could have defended if needed. So I think it less likely Form is a wolf because of his vote there. Not impossible though.

After the two votes for Mith at 10.56 the situation was: Mith4, Shasta2, Form2


Then we get to the interesting part.



The next one to vote is Boro.

10.57 Boro – Shasta (Mith4, Shasta3, Form2)

Now the first question is, whether he had seen my vote and Form's vote eg. was he up to the situation where Mith was in the lead with four votes or whether he still thought it was a threeway tie? He writes that someone has to break the tie when he votes; also his post came at the next minute from the two earlier ones so it looks quite believable he really thought he was the first to break the tie.

This leaves me yet the questions I've already raised A) why Shasta and not Mith & B) why no reaction after the presumed "breaking of the tie" ended up messing the situation?



The second last is Aganzir (on the same minute with Boro but there were a few posts in bewtween them and as her votepost is such a short one I'd bet she was knowledgeable at least of Mith's lead if not also Boro's vote on Shasta.)

10.57 Aganzir – Form (Mith4, Shasta3, Form3)

Let me walk you through her last posts leading to that vote and then make a few comments...


9.22

I think lynching Mith would give us the most insight today.

9.44

It's funny that yesterday Mith looked much more suspicious than Nogrod and today it's vice versa.

10.30

Actually, I thought it was likely that either Mith or Nogrod was a wolf, and Mith looked more wolfish. Though today Nogrod has been much more suspicious ...
Somehow I'm not so sure anymore if I want to vote for Mith. Kitanna and Nogrod feel worse, and to an extent also Form.

10.42

I could vote for Nogrod too.
I'll eat my hat with feathers and all if neither Mith nor Nog is a wolf, and today I'd prefer trying Nog.

10.49

Starting to sound a bit desperate, are you, Nog? Either you or Mith is a wolf, yesterday I thought Mith, today you.

Two tallies between 10.49 - 10.55...

10.56

I think our chances with Form are better than with Mith.

10.57 Votes Form:

I've grown so suspicious of him in these last few minutes.

10.58

Even if Mith dies, it's going to reveal a lot about Nog.

10.59

*just waiting for someone to vote for Shasta so three people are tied *

Now a few things.

- Up to ten minutes before the deadline she repeats her point that either me or Mith is a wolf. When it came obvious that she couldn't get me lynched (a nice try though) she also abandoned the idea of lynching Mith.

- Her constant tallying (and toying around with phantomness to explain it) is interesting as well. At least it shows she was extremely keen on being up to date. It might speak of a situation where things were not going nice from her angle as I don't remember she is normally like that...

- Her point that we'd have better chances with lynching Form than Mith is has two things I keep wondering. First of all how about Shasta as a chance? Her not even mentioning him speaks on behalf of the theory they're together the last wolves. By remaining silent about Shasta whom people had talked a lot the last few hours speak for that. Secondly, and referring at my first point, it is interesting that the other one of her "either X or Y is a wolf" isn't that good a chance anymore even if Mith hadn't posted a single post between the ones I've quoted up there... but she'd rather vote for someone she had "picked" just in the last minutes.

- That last big grin is just pure evil - something I'd believe coming from evil Aganzir... and the need to kind of lighten it up in the post-DL answer.



And last but not least Shasta

10.58 Shasta – Form (Mith4, Shasta3, Form4)

First of all I'm inclined to believe he knew the voting-situation as he managed to post once already after Agan's vote for Form. If he didn't, his vote becomes even less comprehensible...

So when he voted the situation was Mith 4 votes and himself and Form on 3. But even more interesting I think is the question of whether he was fully aware that there was still The Ka to vote, or did he think he was the last to vote?

In the first case (he was aware The Ka hadn't voted) his vote looks quite odd for an innocent as well as a wolf would have gladly voted for Mith to secure their own heads as the Ka could have voted for him bringing him to the shared top-position. Unless he weighed the risks and thought it such unlikely that The Ka would turn out that he decided to risk it for a reason or another: for an altruistic reason of getting not the "obvious wolf" lynched but the might be wolf... ) or then in effort to save his mate Mith.

In the second case that calculation-possibility sounds much more probable to me. If he hadn't no fear there was someone coming to vote after him he could go his way (look above for the options).



Summa summarum: Looking yet another time at the last minute voting has made me feel a bit better about Boro and a lot more suspicious of both Agan and Shasta.

[Eönwë]

Hmmm....
I'm inclined to agree with Nogrod about Shasta. It seems highly suspicious to me. He is only one vote behind top-spot, yet he cooses to keep his position there, instead of furthering (is that a word?) himself away from being lynched. Looks like he was trying to save Mith. If I hadn't known who the cobbler was, I would definitely say him. But he was definately trying to stir things up a bit.

Nogrod seems to be making a lot of sense lately, but maybe that just means he's a wolf trying to look good... We'll just have to wait and see.


edit: Did not x-post with anyone. Slow, quiet Day- we're still on the same page as yesterDay.

[Boromir88]

and the ill consequences it had of making it possible neither Mith or Shasta would be lynched - but you stayed away.~Nogrod

The only thing I was thinking at that time was how could everyone be that stupid? How could that Form bandwagon start so easy? It was interesting to see once Rikae came and was wondering why it was assumed Shasta and Mith were the only "candidates" that others were quick to latch on and then tack on votes for Form. Granted that situation wouldn't have happened if I had gone through with a vote for Mith, but I thought Shasta was more likely a wolf, and Mith's gibbering yesterday (and overall diversionary jabber throughout her time here) was spammish. Now that sally is the spammer though, I still think Shasta is the wolf and Agan is innocent. If Mith knows she's dead meat she'll take the noose to give her buddies a chance at getting away.

The mistake that I made yesterday is when I was looking through everything I kept coming to the conclusion on several people, well this would really depend upon what Mith's identity is? Knowing Mith's identity would reveal more, and thinking Mith was guilty in some way, I should have gone with her eventhough I thought she was the spammer and we'd get a wolf with Shasta.

As far as Agan today, I don't see at this point why a wolf would cast a vote for Kitanna. And now that Agan can't be around for the rest of the day, I'm afraid the remaining wolves will go after her as it would be easier to get us to vote for her. I don't know if Agan's case against Kitanna is forced, she certainly has me mulling it over. Because I have felt Kitanna's voting has been pretty safe.

Maybe it just looks that way because Kit isn't around for the deadline and she usually has to vote early, but even though she is still pretty active, her votes just look like she's trying to stay out of trouble. I know I said if she was correct about Mith, I would probably trust her for the rest of the game. But that was also because of her thoughts about a wolf Mith and a wolf Nogrod, and now she backs away from Nogrod.

I don't see any reason why I should vote for Kitanna today. After Mith being a wolf she looks pretty innocent, but I will say if one wolf did vote for Mith, to look more innocent, I would imagine it would be Kitanna's vote or Nogrod's. Kit's because it is the first one and if Mith is the one lynched she looks innocent. But it is also a safe one because it removes her out of a tough decision at the end to either send her partner to the noose or vote for someone else and keep her partner alive for at least another day. And Nogrod's looks suspicious because he has made that bold decision to send his partner to the noose before.

edit: crossed with Eonwe

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sigh. For my first game as a Gifted, this really isn't going very well. I don't think I have much choice other than to reveal, since everyone's so focused on me.