Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 07-12-2008, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Well, for one, it didn't matter WHO I voted yesterday, someone was going to suspect me.

That's the way a wolf thinks...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shasta

By then I thought Mith and Form were both wolves, and figured Mith was obvious enough to everyone, but Form had only garnered suspicion from a few.

So? If you had an obvious wolf in your head and saw others were also suspected you decided not to lynch the clear wolf and decided to try someone you had only started to suspect at the last minutes? Quite an interesting way to behave for an innocent...

I'm sorry Shasta but I'm afraid I am growing more and more confident on your lupinity. But let's read and think first - and there's the other one to catch as well.

EDIT: X'd with Shasta

Shastanis Althreduin · 07-12-2008, 05:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That's the way a wolf thinks...

So? If you had an obvious wolf in your head and saw others were also suspected you decided not to lynch the clear wolf and decided to try someone you had only started to suspect at the last minutes? Quite an interesting way to behave for an innocent...

I'm sorry Shasta but I'm afraid I am growing more and more confident on your lupinity. But let's read and think first - and there's the other one to catch as well.

EDIT: X'd with Shasta

It's also true, tell me it's not.

And who's to say there'd be another chance to lynch Form today? I saw a chance to lynch someone I suspected of wolfery. I don't see what's so suspicious about that.

Nogrod · 07-12-2008, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't see what's so suspicious about that.

That's what I'm going to try and find out Shasta - whether it is as suspicious as I now feel it is. It will take a moment to go through yesterDay as I'm quite slow in this but I'll give it a look next.

Nogrod · 07-12-2008, 07:00 PM

Shasta yesterDay...

Shasta:
#353
Opens with just ”Lovely” – after we had lost our seer.

#355
Durelin analysis – followed by a suggestion: Nogrod might be dreamt of hacker & Kitanna was a dreamt of innocent.

#358
Complains my use of the term “overdoing”.

#363, #365
Row with Eomer continues from yesterday.

#403
Complains people are thinking he’s pushing his interpretation of Dury’s dream on Kitanna on them.

#406
Explains why he posts a lot early (convenient timezones). Corrects Eönwë’s vote list.

#410
Gets ready to back off from “Dury dreamt of Kitanna” but reminds that doesn’t refute his “Dury dreamt of Nogrod”. Asks whether someone has refuted that “as well” (I see some irony here…).

#418
Comments on Eönwë’s suspicion list as being unimaginative…

#444 (twenty one minutes before the deadline)
“If it helps, Form, Nogrod is pinging my radar as well. :P I wouldn't be averse to voting him... if I didn't have to save myself.”

#449
Explains the selling of the car-thing again (yes, I asked…).

#465 (four minutes before the deadline)
Comments on Eönwë’s cry about a tie in voting: “Continuously stating the obvious is rarely endearing”. Greets PhantomAgan.

#472 (two minutes before)
“This speaks of oddness to me; When the possibility of a Form-wagon rears its ugly head, suddenly both Nogrod and Form become decisive.”

#473 (two minutes before)
Votes Form; “Oh heck... did I just create another tie?”

---
A few thoughts.

I'll leave the Shasta - Eomer row for now.

He seems to be complaining and commenting a lot - especially to Eönwë. Also he explains his actions a lot.

Up to two minutes before deadline he hasn't suspected Form at all. Indeed he suggested Form he could join his possible Nogrod-wagon twenty minutes before the DL but that was his only mentioning of him.

Also, I'm a bit at loss with his point on post #472. Would you care to tell what you meant by that "becoming decisive"?

Gah. Some things really look suspicious, first and foremost the kind of a way he seems to wait for any decent opportunity to go for a target that could save Mith without looking too suspicious. I mean: he doesn't so much take part in the late discussion but rather throws in redundancies. Also he's very careful not to bring forwards any names he'd suspect (but me and that he does one time in the late discussion) like he was waiting for the "target of opportunity" - which he then finds in Form.

Okay. That's reading the data with a Devil's advocate -lens.

I'm not sure (well, when you can be in WW?), but I'd say he's topping my suspicion list at the moment. Although I'm afraid there are going to be a few others with him as well before the Day closes. There were such interesting things in the voting and I'd need to see the leads that voting might give me to say more of them.

Nogrod · 07-12-2008, 07:29 PM

The voting and the reasons for them (all times are in GMT)

12.06 Kitanna – Mith
(based on Durelin’s list & vote)

3.16 Eomer – Shasta
(after getting confident on it – a long history of arguments behind)

8.54 MithWolf – Shasta (Mith1, Shasta2)
(self defence)

9.22 Eönwë – Mith (Mith2, Shasta2)
(in the end because Eomer has missed voting Mith for two Days in a row even if he suspected her heavily in the beginning)

The last minutes…
10.51 Rikae – Formendacil (Mith2, Shasta2, Form1)
(bad feeling / hunch the Day earlier, “you not only are still giving me a bad feeling, you are now starting to look more definitely evil”. +” I was just waiting to see if my suspicions would be confirmed by your behavior, and... guess what”)

10.54 Sally the cobbler – Formendacil (Mith2, Shasta2, Form2)
(gut feeling, “just seems right to be a wolf”)

10.56 Nogrod – Mith (Mith3, Shasta2, Form2)
(“Not only what has been said about Dury - Mith and Nerwen - Mith connections but also the way she acted toDay - and the Days before. Also she didn't say she's innocent which she normally does when innocent but felt like a resignated wolf”.)

10.56 Form – Mith (Mith4, Shasta2, Form2)
(sticking to his guns)

10.57 Boro – Shasta (Mith4, Shasta3, Form2)
(“I don't think I would be able to take another day of Shasta and Eomer battling”.)

10.57 Aganzir – Form (Mith4, Shasta3, Form3)
(“I've grown so suspicious of him in these last few minutes”.)

10.58 Shasta – Form (Mith4, Shasta3, Form4)
(Oh heck... did I just create another tie?)

The three last ones do raise an eybrow... and we have only two wolves left!

I'm not saying there couldn't be a more easy-voting wolf lurking somewhere in the earlier votes but I'd say we have at least one in the last three.

Shastanis Althreduin · 07-12-2008, 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also, I'm a bit at loss with his point on post #472. Would you care to tell what you meant by that "becoming decisive"?

Pretty simply, it seemed to be that both you and Form were extremely indecisive on who to vote for, saying "well, that person seems suspicious, but then so does that person, but I'm not saying that person's innocent either..." but then suddenly Form has two votes and is in danger of being lynched; immediately both you and Form vote for Mith.

Nogrod · 07-12-2008, 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Pretty simply, it seemed to be that both you and Form were extremely indecisive on who to vote for, saying "well, that person seems suspicious, but then so does that person, but I'm not saying that person's innocent either...

I think your description fits Form but I thought I was pretty open about voting either you or Mith and preferring Mith as I was more convinced of her guilt.

Yes I thought Form -wagon was a stupid idea at that moment and it may have made me vote a minute or too earlier just to bring the voting back to the track. I do not say Form couldn't be a wolf but at that moment I thought we had a wolf in our hands and one just doesn't want to lose those opportunities. Luckily you three last voters were not able to twist that vote...

I mean I do disagree on this principle with you: if you have a wolf, lynch her/him immediately. Everything can happen and nothing is more unpredictable than a game of WW. So you may not get a second chance.

Shastanis Althreduin · 07-12-2008, 07:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So you may not get a second chance.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shasta

And who's to say there'd be another chance to lynch Form today?

07-12-2008, 07:29 PM	#5
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	The voting and the reasons for them (all times are in GMT) 12.06 Kitanna – Mith (based on Durelin’s list & vote) 3.16 Eomer – Shasta (after getting confident on it – a long history of arguments behind) 8.54 MithWolf – Shasta (Mith1, Shasta2) (self defence) 9.22 Eönwë – Mith (Mith2, Shasta2) (in the end because Eomer has missed voting Mith for two Days in a row even if he suspected her heavily in the beginning) The last minutes… 10.51 Rikae – Formendacil (Mith2, Shasta2, Form1) (bad feeling / hunch the Day earlier, “you not only are still giving me a bad feeling, you are now starting to look more definitely evil”. +” I was just waiting to see if my suspicions would be confirmed by your behavior, and... guess what”) 10.54 Sally the cobbler – Formendacil (Mith2, Shasta2, Form2) (gut feeling, “just seems right to be a wolf”) 10.56 Nogrod – Mith (Mith3, Shasta2, Form2) (“Not only what has been said about Dury - Mith and Nerwen - Mith connections but also the way she acted toDay - and the Days before. Also she didn't say she's innocent which she normally does when innocent but felt like a resignated wolf”.) 10.56 Form – Mith (Mith4, Shasta2, Form2) (sticking to his guns) 10.57 Boro – Shasta (Mith4, Shasta3, Form2) (“I don't think I would be able to take another day of Shasta and Eomer battling”.) 10.57 Aganzir – Form (Mith4, Shasta3, Form3) (“I've grown so suspicious of him in these last few minutes”.) 10.58 Shasta – Form (Mith4, Shasta3, Form4) (Oh heck... did I just create another tie?) The three last ones do raise an eybrow... and we have only two wolves left! I'm not saying there couldn't be a more easy-voting wolf lurking somewhere in the earlier votes but I'd say we have at least one in the last three. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

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07-12-2008, 07:00 PM	#4
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Shasta yesterDay... Shasta: #353 Opens with just ”Lovely” – after we had lost our seer. #355 Durelin analysis – followed by a suggestion: Nogrod might be dreamt of hacker & Kitanna was a dreamt of innocent. #358 Complains my use of the term “overdoing”. #363, #365 Row with Eomer continues from yesterday. #403 Complains people are thinking he’s pushing his interpretation of Dury’s dream on Kitanna on them. #406 Explains why he posts a lot early (convenient timezones). Corrects Eönwë’s vote list. #410 Gets ready to back off from “Dury dreamt of Kitanna” but reminds that doesn’t refute his “Dury dreamt of Nogrod”. Asks whether someone has refuted that “as well” (I see some irony here…). #418 Comments on Eönwë’s suspicion list as being unimaginative… #444 (twenty one minutes before the deadline) “If it helps, Form, Nogrod is pinging my radar as well. :P I wouldn't be averse to voting him... if I didn't have to save myself.” #449 Explains the selling of the car-thing again (yes, I asked…). #465 (four minutes before the deadline) Comments on Eönwë’s cry about a tie in voting: “Continuously stating the obvious is rarely endearing”. Greets PhantomAgan. #472 (two minutes before) “This speaks of oddness to me; When the possibility of a Form-wagon rears its ugly head, suddenly both Nogrod and Form become decisive.” #473 (two minutes before) Votes Form; “Oh heck... did I just create another tie?” --- A few thoughts. I'll leave the Shasta - Eomer row for now. He seems to be complaining and commenting a lot - especially to Eönwë. Also he explains his actions a lot. Up to two minutes before deadline he hasn't suspected Form at all. Indeed he suggested Form he could join his possible Nogrod-wagon twenty minutes before the DL but that was his only mentioning of him. Also, I'm a bit at loss with his point on post #472. Would you care to tell what you meant by that "becoming decisive"? Gah. Some things really look suspicious, first and foremost the kind of a way he seems to wait for any decent opportunity to go for a target that could save Mith without looking too suspicious. I mean: he doesn't so much take part in the late discussion but rather throws in redundancies. Also he's very careful not to bring forwards any names he'd suspect (but me and that he does one time in the late discussion) like he was waiting for the "target of opportunity" - which he then finds in Form. Okay. That's reading the data with a Devil's advocate -lens. I'm not sure (well, when you can be in WW?), but I'd say he's topping my suspicion list at the moment. Although I'm afraid there are going to be a few others with him as well before the Day closes. There were such interesting things in the voting and I'd need to see the leads that voting might give me to say more of them. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...