Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Mith, day 1

Anyway can't decide about Kitanna & Nerwen and Form .. but Sally's vote just seems a bit too parasitic... at least Kitanna and Form stuck their heads above the parapet.

I don't know if this means she couldn't decide which one of them to vote or that she couldn't decide what to think of them. But if she was planning to vote for one of them, I think the wolves could have had a plan that they would accuse one another on day 1, and therefore also Kitanna's vote for Nerwen doesn't necessarily speak for her innocence.

Eönwë suspected Nerwen to some extent for not doing anything useful and voted for Mith:

Because of the way she posts, as if she's hiding behind hersef being IC but not at the same time. Hard to explain what I mean. Also, her attitude seems slightrly suspicious

Eomer and Nog kept going after Mith for long. Although Nogwolf is capable of killing his fellows, I'm not sure if he would have started it already on day 1.

Originally Posted by Shasta

In fact, Eomer's been suspicious of Mith since before her vote (#64). Hmm...

Why that hmm? What were you thinking?

Like Eomer said already, Shasta found both Nerwen and Mith innocent.

Ok, I don't have time to do more but I post what little I have managed to gather by now. It would be lovely if someone else could check the rest.

Sorry to be of little use today but RL calls.

++ Kitanna

If you decide to lynch me, I hope you will at least consider her later.

Oh and I forgot to comment on this in my previous post.

Originally Posted by Form

Mind you, I hardly expect to get away scot-free today

Why? I think the fact that you were tried to lynch instead of Mith should make you look more innocent and us who voted for you suspicious? Or is it just that a wolf always thinks he's suspected more than he really is?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm not sure both Shasta and Aganzir would have voted Formendacil at the end (were they both wolves). I'm thinking only one is. Actually, that's a good spot Agan; I remember Shasta defending Mith there. I must say, though, that your case against Kitanna does not convince me. It seems a bit too ... constructed, if you like.

[Rikae]

I'm leaning toward thinking Aganzir more wolfish than Shasta. Looking at Shasta yesterDay already made me more inclined to forgive his odd behavior, but Aganzir's vote really seems to have come out of nowhere. Her behavior toDay seems very much like a typical wolf who is under some pressure - her case aganst Kitanna seems rather forced (especially the "myself" bit) and the make a case, vote, and leave pattern is a tactic I've used myself as a cornered wolf - throwing something out there for the village to chew on (she even encourages us to look into it more) and then dropping out of sight and, hopefully, out of mind.
Also, the way she deals with Shasta toDay is so ambiguous, it really has me thinking even more they may be wolves together. She could simply go after him as an easy way to get herself out of danger, and might even do so as a wolf, but it looks as though she's trying to protect her last packmate by drawing suspicion elsewhere, while making wishy-washy statements about him to cover herself, should he be lynched.

[Nogrod]

I'm just a bit concerned about you Boro... You seem to be the only one around who has not been suspected the whole game and you live still. Also I'm pretty much positive you would love to pay me back the one game I managed to fool you nicely and I'm in no way wishing it to take place in this game...

But the actual reason that made me say it aloud yesterDay was your amazing turn-around vote for Shasta - and the reason given ("I don't think I would be able to take another day of Shasta and Eomer battling.") just felt bad. I understand you were at least partially joking there but somehow the fact you made that kind of joke there worries me as much. You had talked of lynching Mith all Day and come forwards with reasons for it and then in the tight spot you try to get her off the hook...

Also, were you an innocent I'd think you would have commented the situation unfolding after your vote - and the ill consequences it had of making it possible neither Mith or Shasta would be lynched - but you stayed away. I somehow feel bad about that too.


But don't you worry. I think I may have even better candidates toDay and I'd need to really look at your posting and actions before getting confident in anything like a case on you.


As I tend to agree with Rikae on Agan's case on Kitanna being more a forced reaction of a wolf than a genuine trial of finding one I'd be willing to look at her more closely - and Shasta once more - toDay. Her grin in the end of yesterDay just gives me creeps.

And yes, Boro has been a staunch defender of Aganzir... hmm...

[Kitanna]

This, unfortunately, is my only post today (work destroys all )
And because of that I was limited to looking at the end of yesterday and today's posts.

Highly Suspicious - Shasta
He tied Form and Mith. If he was looking to be self-preserving it would have been easier to vote Mith ahead than create another tie. When he voted Mith, was at four votes and Form and himself were at three each. That seems like cobbler behavior, but since the cobbler is now dead and gone...
He also tries to make a case against Nogrod on the grounds of indecision.

Pretty simply, it seemed to be that both you and Form were extremely indecisive on who to vote for, saying "well, that person seems suspicious, but then so does that person, but I'm not saying that person's innocent either..." but then suddenly Form has two votes and is in danger of being lynched; immediately both you and Form vote for Mith.

Form's vote was pretty self-preserving and Nogrod had long suspected Mith of wolvery. I don't see Shasta having much of a case here.

Moderately Suspicious - Agan
I have suspected Agan of being the cobbler, but even though the cobbler is dead I still hold onto some suspicion. I don't think Shasta and Agan are both wolves that participated in the Form bandwagon. If one is innocent, then I believe the other is guilty.

Not Very Suspicious - Nogrod, Eonwe
I have a nagging feeling about Nogrod. He looks more innocent to me, but I'm not one to ignore gut feelings because they've been right from time to time.
For Eonwe I'm still holding some suspicions I've had for a while. They've only lessened because I have other people to worry about.

Not Suspicious - Eomer, Form
Since the cobbler is dead I have no reason to doubt his claim as Hunter.
I have never really suspected Form, but the bandwagon against him seemed like an attempt to ease pressure off a wolf onto an innocent. Rikae's vote was no surprise. I'm unsure what to think about Agan's. But Shasta's didn't seem right to me.

Unsure - Boro, Rikae
I haven't been able to form a solid opinion of either since the game started.

++ Shasta

[Formendacil]

And here I thought I'd have reams to catch up on..

Well, I'm both flattered and a little surprised, Rikae, that you've apparently decided to drop the "Form is a wolf" thought for the moment, although given the low postage today, that might just be a case of "have not yet mentioned", since you were clearly responding to the general trend of "Shasta and Again: which is a wolf thought?"

Myself, I'm very much inclined to think Shasta lupine, and while it may be personal grudge getting in the way of more reasoned thinking, at this point I do not foresee voting for anyone else--barring perhaps another out-of-the-blue bandwaggon against me.

I agree that if Shasta is a wolf, then Aganzir very probably isn't... although she's certainly looking suspicious in the interim. If, perhaps, Shasta isn't the wolf, then Agan certainly bears further innocence, but in the meantime, I'll take my continued instinct that, despite her malevolence, Agan is innocent as a confirmation that Shasta probably is.

Back later, towards the deadline...

[Boromir88]

and the ill consequences it had of making it possible neither Mith or Shasta would be lynched - but you stayed away.~Nogrod

The only thing I was thinking at that time was how could everyone be that stupid? How could that Form bandwagon start so easy? It was interesting to see once Rikae came and was wondering why it was assumed Shasta and Mith were the only "candidates" that others were quick to latch on and then tack on votes for Form. Granted that situation wouldn't have happened if I had gone through with a vote for Mith, but I thought Shasta was more likely a wolf, and Mith's gibbering yesterday (and overall diversionary jabber throughout her time here) was spammish. Now that sally is the spammer though, I still think Shasta is the wolf and Agan is innocent. If Mith knows she's dead meat she'll take the noose to give her buddies a chance at getting away.

The mistake that I made yesterday is when I was looking through everything I kept coming to the conclusion on several people, well this would really depend upon what Mith's identity is? Knowing Mith's identity would reveal more, and thinking Mith was guilty in some way, I should have gone with her eventhough I thought she was the spammer and we'd get a wolf with Shasta.

As far as Agan today, I don't see at this point why a wolf would cast a vote for Kitanna. And now that Agan can't be around for the rest of the day, I'm afraid the remaining wolves will go after her as it would be easier to get us to vote for her. I don't know if Agan's case against Kitanna is forced, she certainly has me mulling it over. Because I have felt Kitanna's voting has been pretty safe.

Maybe it just looks that way because Kit isn't around for the deadline and she usually has to vote early, but even though she is still pretty active, her votes just look like she's trying to stay out of trouble. I know I said if she was correct about Mith, I would probably trust her for the rest of the game. But that was also because of her thoughts about a wolf Mith and a wolf Nogrod, and now she backs away from Nogrod.

I don't see any reason why I should vote for Kitanna today. After Mith being a wolf she looks pretty innocent, but I will say if one wolf did vote for Mith, to look more innocent, I would imagine it would be Kitanna's vote or Nogrod's. Kit's because it is the first one and if Mith is the one lynched she looks innocent. But it is also a safe one because it removes her out of a tough decision at the end to either send her partner to the noose or vote for someone else and keep her partner alive for at least another day. And Nogrod's looks suspicious because he has made that bold decision to send his partner to the noose before.

edit: crossed with Eonwe

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sigh. For my first game as a Gifted, this really isn't going very well. I don't think I have much choice other than to reveal, since everyone's so focused on me.

[Boromir88]

Now onto a Mith and Nogrod connection. (If there is one).

Day 1 I didn't see much interaction between the two, Mith doesn't name Nogrod at all, and Nogrod only mentions her in a couple of posts, in passing. I don't see anything that would point either to Nogrod being Mith's partner, or not.

On Day 2 in Post 188:

So there was a danger of a tie of three emerging including Mith or Nerwen (whom I considered and still do consider not good lynches at least before any better reasons are given).

Nogrod names both Nerwen and Mith. Both are known wolves. I think this looks innocent for Nogrod, he's a smart wolf. Would he name his two partners in the same sentence and defend both of them? With Nogrod anything is possible, but at this time there were still only 3 wolves, and I don't think a wolf-Nogrod would stay that close to his two partners.

Post 232:

We need to check Kit toMorrow. As well as Mith. And I'll promise to read Nerwen properly.

Again he names Mith and Nerwen practically in the same sentence. And he does follow up the next day by "looking" at Mith.

Day 3 we start getting a little more...

Mith in post 300 goes on a tirade:

If I give up trying to sort through the posts (and time is against me) I may well may well vote for him on the principle that I am getting heartily fed up with him acting as some kind of cyber sheep-dog, voting literally at at the last minute, expecting everyone else to vote before him, then wringing his hands in moral outrage when they fail to do what he wants. Especially as when he has done it in other games he has played he has been a wolf. Just seems like such a major back covering exercise as if he is terrified a vote may incriminate him in some way - manipulative without risking the exposure of taking a lead.

And less than an hour later in post 306 she votes for Nogrod:

However I have skimmed again and it strikes me that not only is Nogrod being quietly amnipulative but he is being quiet.... normally you can't look away for a moment without there being more analysis. This time ( and I don't regard it as a bad thing as such) there are many others who are much more active in the discussion. Hard as it is to believe but Nogrod seems to be flying under the radar. Is that because in the classic scenario, Nerwen was a very loud wolf indeed?

Well I seldom regret voting for him and often regret not following through when I do suspect him.

This is what got me first seriously suspicious about Mith. I said her vote for Nogrod seemed really out of the blue, and I remember her the next day saying it wasn't out of the blue at all, she had said she was going to vote for Nogrod before. Going back through everything (unless I missed something from Days 1 and 2) the only time she talked about voting for Nogrod was less than an hour before her vote on Day 3, and only 6 posts before. Sorry Mith, that is still out of the blue.

Also at that time I came to a different conclusion than Mith's reasoning which was just plain out odd...Nogrod's quietness? Nogrod a quiet wolf? He's not afraid to blabber away if he's a wolf. Also, I didn't think Nogrod was that quiet at all. So, definitely Mith's Day 3 vote was what got me suspicious and at that point I thought Nogrod looked innocent.

In Post 311 Nogrod strikes back by saying Mith is wrong. I won't quote the whole thing, because it's rather long and Nogrod is pretty much just saying the same thing that he always votes late (if he can) and Mith saying he does it when he's a wolf is just wrong.

Nogrod strikes back pretty forcefully and a wolf-Nogrod would not be afraid to do so. But, my question is would he start to encourage others to vote for wolf partners? I still remember when I was dooped and as far as I remember he let me lead the case against his partners and he made the crucial lynching votes to look innocent.

In Post 328 Nogrod makes known his willingness to vote for Mith. I want to so bad say oh he's a wolf! But I can't let my bias get in the way here, this doesn't say either way because an innocent Nogrod would do the same.

Day 4:

Nogrod in post 356, 359 and through the rest of the day he keeps remarking that he wants to see Mith lynched, and still thinks Mith is a wolf. There are a couple posts where they have some playful exchange.

In 382 Nogrod defends his reasons for not always voting for his top suspects. Normally I would say to vote for who you think is most suspicious, but when you like to be around at the end like Nogrod he is absolutely right. The situation could be very different and who you want to see lynched might not be possible. So, in that instant you have to make a decision to choose who you think is more suspicious. That's just what Nogrod does, I've noticed so far in this village, at the end, Nogrod making known who he wants to go after tomorrow, but also promising to look at those he thinks are innocent.

There isn't anything else that strikes out to me on Day 4, just the same Nogrod saying he definitely wants to lynch Mith today.

I gone in thinking haha Nogrod you will not fool me again, I know you've gone and done it again. I know you've backstabbed one of your wolf partners. But, I think the conclusion I've reached is completely different, and if you are fooling me again Nogrod I will bring hell down on you next time this happens.

Anyway the conclusion I've come to is obviously Nogrod is a smart wolf, and from the talk throughout these days we are in a village very keen on trying to catch wolf on wolf votes. Plus, I'm in this village and through our lovely past he knows I would want to quickly jump on him for a wolf-on-wolf vote, so would wolf- Nogrod really do it again is the question? Perhaps in the right circumstances, but these aren't the right circumstances. Also, taking into consideration Mith knows me well, and thus knows it would be easy to latch on to Nogrod and frame him. Mith's playful banter looks like an attempt to get me to go after Nogrod, where Nogrod has been pretty much straight to business against Mith since Day 3.

And here comes another flip-flop from me. After thinking Kit's analysis of a wolf-Mith and wolf-Nogrod made sense, I'm going to say it's wrong.

Kit was right when she said if Durelin dreamed of Nogrod early she would not come out strong against Nogrod, she would more or less try to hint at it. I know because when I was a wolf and Durelin dreamed of me on Day 1 that's what she did. She let me have fun and mess around for a few days until I lost Naria and it was down to me and Valier. Then she came out and revealed I was a wolf and she dreamed of me on Night 1.

However, I think Kit was wrong in part of her analysis. Back in that past village I talked about above Durelin would not send confusing messages. She let me have fun for a few days but since she knew my identity she would only address me and the way she avoided my fellow wolves detection was when I would post she would say something like "Boro looks less suspicious to me now." She doesn't do that with Nogrod, she lumps Nogrod and myself together:

Also, Nogrod and Boro haven't been getting nearly enough attention. But really, I feel good about Nogrod's vote, because I like sticking to principles. And I liked Boro's attitude on Day 1 anyway. Day 2 I need to look at...obviously.

I'm inclined to believe Durelin didn't know about Nogrod or me, and like a wise lets the village know that. Let's them know she thinks we're innocent, but we have not been getting enough attention and she doesn't know. I don't think she would confuse us as Kit's analysis suggests, if she dreamed of Nogrod and found out he was a wolf she would be subtle about it. Which Kitanna was right about, but I think she is only half-right.

Edit: crossed with every post since my last one

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Highly Suspicious - Shasta
He tied Form and Mith. If he was looking to be self-preserving it would have been easier to vote Mith ahead than create another tie. When he voted Mith, was at four votes and Form and himself were at three each.

That's a good point indeed - and it lead mo to re-read once again that stuff in the end of the previous Day.


The last three voters must all have been aware of Sallycobbler's vote after which the situation was: Mith2, Shasta2, Form2 - all even.

Okay then myself and Form voted at the same minute on 10.56.

I already told I was about to do that in any case and that I didn't like the way the voting was heading and decided to act. Form I think had at least self-preservation issues behind his vote and looking back at the Day it looked quite self-evident Mith would be the one to be lynched. If I remember it correctly he had also thought of voting Shasta (or me). Now were Form a fellow-wolf of Mith, voting Shasta would have been a decent idea he could have defended if needed. So I think it less likely Form is a wolf because of his vote there. Not impossible though.

After the two votes for Mith at 10.56 the situation was: Mith4, Shasta2, Form2


Then we get to the interesting part.



The next one to vote is Boro.

10.57 Boro – Shasta (Mith4, Shasta3, Form2)

Now the first question is, whether he had seen my vote and Form's vote eg. was he up to the situation where Mith was in the lead with four votes or whether he still thought it was a threeway tie? He writes that someone has to break the tie when he votes; also his post came at the next minute from the two earlier ones so it looks quite believable he really thought he was the first to break the tie.

This leaves me yet the questions I've already raised A) why Shasta and not Mith & B) why no reaction after the presumed "breaking of the tie" ended up messing the situation?



The second last is Aganzir (on the same minute with Boro but there were a few posts in bewtween them and as her votepost is such a short one I'd bet she was knowledgeable at least of Mith's lead if not also Boro's vote on Shasta.)

10.57 Aganzir – Form (Mith4, Shasta3, Form3)

Let me walk you through her last posts leading to that vote and then make a few comments...


9.22

I think lynching Mith would give us the most insight today.

9.44

It's funny that yesterday Mith looked much more suspicious than Nogrod and today it's vice versa.

10.30

Actually, I thought it was likely that either Mith or Nogrod was a wolf, and Mith looked more wolfish. Though today Nogrod has been much more suspicious ...
Somehow I'm not so sure anymore if I want to vote for Mith. Kitanna and Nogrod feel worse, and to an extent also Form.

10.42

I could vote for Nogrod too.
I'll eat my hat with feathers and all if neither Mith nor Nog is a wolf, and today I'd prefer trying Nog.

10.49

Starting to sound a bit desperate, are you, Nog? Either you or Mith is a wolf, yesterday I thought Mith, today you.

Two tallies between 10.49 - 10.55...

10.56

I think our chances with Form are better than with Mith.

10.57 Votes Form:

I've grown so suspicious of him in these last few minutes.

10.58

Even if Mith dies, it's going to reveal a lot about Nog.

10.59

*just waiting for someone to vote for Shasta so three people are tied *

Now a few things.

- Up to ten minutes before the deadline she repeats her point that either me or Mith is a wolf. When it came obvious that she couldn't get me lynched (a nice try though) she also abandoned the idea of lynching Mith.

- Her constant tallying (and toying around with phantomness to explain it) is interesting as well. At least it shows she was extremely keen on being up to date. It might speak of a situation where things were not going nice from her angle as I don't remember she is normally like that...

- Her point that we'd have better chances with lynching Form than Mith is has two things I keep wondering. First of all how about Shasta as a chance? Her not even mentioning him speaks on behalf of the theory they're together the last wolves. By remaining silent about Shasta whom people had talked a lot the last few hours speak for that. Secondly, and referring at my first point, it is interesting that the other one of her "either X or Y is a wolf" isn't that good a chance anymore even if Mith hadn't posted a single post between the ones I've quoted up there... but she'd rather vote for someone she had "picked" just in the last minutes.

- That last big grin is just pure evil - something I'd believe coming from evil Aganzir... and the need to kind of lighten it up in the post-DL answer.



And last but not least Shasta

10.58 Shasta – Form (Mith4, Shasta3, Form4)

First of all I'm inclined to believe he knew the voting-situation as he managed to post once already after Agan's vote for Form. If he didn't, his vote becomes even less comprehensible...

So when he voted the situation was Mith 4 votes and himself and Form on 3. But even more interesting I think is the question of whether he was fully aware that there was still The Ka to vote, or did he think he was the last to vote?

In the first case (he was aware The Ka hadn't voted) his vote looks quite odd for an innocent as well as a wolf would have gladly voted for Mith to secure their own heads as the Ka could have voted for him bringing him to the shared top-position. Unless he weighed the risks and thought it such unlikely that The Ka would turn out that he decided to risk it for a reason or another: for an altruistic reason of getting not the "obvious wolf" lynched but the might be wolf... ) or then in effort to save his mate Mith.

In the second case that calculation-possibility sounds much more probable to me. If he hadn't no fear there was someone coming to vote after him he could go his way (look above for the options).



Summa summarum: Looking yet another time at the last minute voting has made me feel a bit better about Boro and a lot more suspicious of both Agan and Shasta.

[Eönwë]

Hmmm....
I'm inclined to agree with Nogrod about Shasta. It seems highly suspicious to me. He is only one vote behind top-spot, yet he cooses to keep his position there, instead of furthering (is that a word?) himself away from being lynched. Looks like he was trying to save Mith. If I hadn't known who the cobbler was, I would definitely say him. But he was definately trying to stir things up a bit.

Nogrod seems to be making a lot of sense lately, but maybe that just means he's a wolf trying to look good... We'll just have to wait and see.


edit: Did not x-post with anyone. Slow, quiet Day- we're still on the same page as yesterDay.