Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Boromir88]

++Eomer

I'm the hunter.

Nogrod, I thought best case scenario it' 5-2 and we get Shasta at night, takes 2 days to win. Could I pull off the charade for another 2 days, afterall I hadn't even received a vote yet and somehow I wasn't dying at night? That was best case, what if blasted Shasta stops us again? What if Agan is lynched? And after doing some final number crunching when all is said in done, as you, my fellow hacker have so wonderfully explained it's 4-1 and still takes 2 days to win. Thus I reached the conclusion I had to stop Shasta during the day before she could stop us at night.

But I think the real deciding factor was you know how much fun I have being a known wolf for an entire day. I hope we can oblige you and make you all eat Shasta's words. RIP you played admirably, and even left a clue proving who you protected, but you know this village...overthinks everything.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, I'm very happy you did all that, Boro; it just makes our job that bit easier.

++BOROMIR88

Yes, I'm finally here. Agree with Nogrod: let's discuss who might be the other wolf. That gives us 3 days rather than just 2.

I suspected Aganzir quite a lot, before this Ranger nonsense. I wonder: Formendacil was killed, despite getting 4 votes the other day. I wonder if wolfy-Aganzir, say, thought that only Form would remember that silliness, and took him out so that the village would forget.

[Nogrod]

Quiet... *sigh*

Just to post something.

My prime suspects at the moment are:
Aganzir (for all that mentioned yesterDay)
Eönwë (because of Kath-kill)

I'm going downtown now but will come back later to actually try something more constructive fex. looking Agan again in the light of Boro actually being the wolf etc.

Oh and not to forget it...

++ Boromir 88


EDIT: X'd with Aganzir... wow, life in the thread!

[Aganzir]

I'm here, but I lost net connection at home so my playing is now dependent on libraries (the one closest my home closes at 15 pm gmt even at its latest) and the goodwill of my friend, but I'm afraid I'm not able to be around till the deadline anymore, nor post as much as I would like to.

Now, onto yesterday.

*GRINS TO GIVE EVERYONE EVEN MORE CREEPS*

Originally Posted by Rikae

Her behavior toDay seems very much like a typical wolf who is under some pressure - her case aganst Kitanna seems rather forced (especially the "myself" bit) and the make a case, vote, and leave pattern is a tactic I've used myself as a cornered wolf - throwing something out there for the village to chew on (she even encourages us to look into it more) and then dropping out of sight and, hopefully, out of mind.

1. I've been suspecting Kitanna the whole game, wanted to make a case to see if my suspicion still hold and they did. I'm sorry if it looks forced to you. Maybe I have just decided that she must be a wolf and therefore refuse to take off the wolf-coloured glasses.
2. I would never, even as a wolf, lie about not being able to play. Maybe I should have posted in the admin thread "I'm going to spend the night at one of my friends' now that they all have returned from their summer cottages, oops now she called and said we're meeting like an hour earlier than we first planned, sorry I can't post more."?

Originally Posted by Rikae

Also, the way she deals with Shasta toDay is so ambiguous

I wasn't nearly convinced about his guilt, but people did bring up good points that pointed at it so I wasn't as sure about him as earlier. If everyone else is suspecting someone you find innocent, do you think that they or you is the most likely wrong?

Well, at least I can pat myself on the back for being right about him (I wasn't sure he was the ranger, but I was inclined to believe so since day 3 or 4).

Originally Posted by Nog

it's hard to see the gain a Boro-wolf would have made by a fake-revealment toDay.

No it isn't. Can the wolves afford yet another missed kill? Can the wolves afford having two known innocents in a village that is getting smaller and smaller? To me it makes much more sense that one of them sacrificed himself to get the ranger lynched. Only why was it Boro, who hadn't been suspected practically at all? The only reasons that I can think of are that either his fellow was not around (which would point at Kitanna, me, or Eönwë I think), or that he didn't think his fellow would come out as the ranger (this might point at least at Nog and Rikae's innocence, who I'm rather sure could have done that, if wolves, though Nog was suspected very little too so I don't know).

**

++ Boro

**

Originally Posted by Eomer

I wonder if wolfy-Aganzir, say, thought that only Form would remember that silliness, and took him out so that the village would forget.

To be honest, I could well do that as a wolf - of course it's not forgotten, but it's maybe not remembered as vividly. Though I wonder if that's just what the wolves want the village to think.
Anyway, I'm darn glad Form was killed because I was becoming rather sure of his guilt when reading through yesterday.

Innocent
Eomer

Guilty
Kitanna

Of the rest, I would consider Nogrod and Eönwë more innocentish and Rikae more wolfish, though I'd like to take a look at all of them at some point.

**

Now, was Boro an original wolf or one turned later? Which ever he was, one thing is certain - Boro, Mith & one yet unknown were wolves together from day 3 on. I'm not going to continue my "people's relations with Nerwen & Mith" thing now (though I think I would if I had better chances to be online), but I'll rather go and see how Boro and Mith treated Kit, Nog and Eönwë.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Only why was it Boro, who hadn't been suspected practically at all? The only reasons that I can think of are that either his fellow was not around (which would point at Kitanna, me, or Eönwë I think)

That's a good point indeed.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Let me also say: good point Aganzir, and one which makes a lot of sense to me. Maybe that's why Form was killed. He and Nogrod could be excused because they were both around and, indeed, more suspicious looking than Boro. Pity about Form but maybe this means Nogrod looks quite good.

[Kitanna]

++ Boro

I go to work and return to find Boro has gone from ranger to hunter quite magically.

In regards to what is to be done tomorrow I'd like to look at Eonwe. Form is now dead after being considered fairly innocent and surviving a bandwagon. Eonwe survived two bandwagons and everyone seemed to push him out of mind after that. I think it would be a good idea to relook at Eonwe.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Boro

Only why was it Boro, who hadn't been suspected practically at all? The only reasons that I can think of are that either his fellow was not around (which would point at Kitanna, me, or Eönwë I think), or that he didn't think his fellow would come out as the ranger (this might point at least at Nog and Rikae's innocence, who I'm rather sure could have done that, if wolves, though Nog was suspected very little too so I don't know).

But what if Boro acted alone? He revealed himself to ensure the death of Shasta, I think that much is clear. I don't think he did it as an attempt to save his last partner. If he wanted to do that he could simply have swayed the village another way. No one suspected him too much except Nogrod and in light of yesterday's performance he obviously can convince the village quite well.

Even today he comes out as our hunter. Not exactly going to work two days in a row, but I'm not so sure Boro was trying to save anyone from the gallows yesterday. I think it was to ensure the ranger was taken out of the picture before another night kill could be prevented for Boro and his partner.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I've just been panicking slightly because I thought we had only one chance to get things right tomorrow. Luckily I had forgotten about one of our quieter players, Eonwe. Great relief!

I should not speculate on who I find most suspicious today, because I don't really want the wolves to come after me (known innocent will make our odds much nicer on that last day). So I don't want to give the wolves any part of my mind.

Must dash now but will be back a couple of hours before deadline.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I'm not so sure Boro was trying to save anyone from the gallows yesterday. I think it was to ensure the ranger was taken out of the picture before another night kill could be prevented for Boro and his partner.

And I'm not thinking so, either. I was rather wondering why it was Boro, whose wolfishness might not have been discovered too soon had he not done it - didn't he trust his fellow wolf would pose as the hunter to get Shasta killed, or was his fellow maybe not around to do that? That's what had me wondering.

Also, I think it would be useful if someone could check how those still alive possibly changed their opinions about Boro after day 2. It's either him or the one yet undiscovered who was turned on night 3, I'm pretty sure of that.

Okay, leaving now.

edit: xed with Eomer

[Aganzir]

Sorry it took this long - I had to leave for a while.

Boro & Nog
Day 3 Boro found Nogrod trusty, but on day 4 his votes worried him. He said Mith's death would reveal a lot about him. Nogrod considered Boro innocent, but notified it was only a feeling from the previous day since someone had changed sides. He also said he tends to trust the judgement of Boro due to his record and the sense he had spoken.
On day 5 Nog said he's a bit concerned about Boro. After analysing the votes he felt a bit better about him.
Boro said if one vote for Mith was wolfish, he would imagine it to be Kit or Nog's. He made a big analysis of Nog, which gave the impression of Nog being innocent.
Nog was more inclined to trust Boro's hunter claim than Shasta's, and asks what a Borowolf would benefit from pretending to be the ranger.

Mith & Nog
On day 3 Nogrod was baffled about Mith, but notified that it was only a feeling from the previous days, since someone had changed sides.
His top suspects were Mith, Kitanna, Nilp, Eönwë, & Rikae, all of whom (except Nilp and Mith) are still alive. Mith suspected Nog and voted for him on day 3.
From day 4 on also Nog suspected Mith heavily, to the extent of being sure about her: "First of all you know you don't need to act on that promise as Mith is a wolf."

Conclusion: Nog looks pretty innocent. I can believe if he goes after his fellows when they are already suspected, but would he really be the first one to say someone is concerning him, even a little? Or be so much against Mith? Unless this is the pack's masterplan to help Nog survive till the end, but I'm not inclined to think so.

Boro & Kit
On day 4 Boro said he had that far thought Kit looked pretty innocent. He said he trusts Kitanna, and she doesn't look misleading. Also, if she was right that Mith was a wolf, he would probably trust her for the rest of the game.
On day 5 Kitanna was unsure of Boro (and Rikae) - of all the others she had an opinion. Boro said he has felt Kitanna's voting to be pretty safe, maybe just because she usually has to vote early. If a vote for Mith was wolfish, he would imagine it to be Kit or Nog's.

Mith & Kitanna
On day 4 Kitanna believed Dur had dreamed of Mith and found her a wolf, and voted for her.

Conclusion: Somehow that Boro's trusting Kit for the rest of the game if she's right about Mith makes me feel better about her. Otherwise, I don't really know.

Boro & Rikae
On day 3 Boro said Rikae looked the most innocent of those who had voted for EW while he and I had been talking about lynching Nerwen. On day 4 he was worried that Rikae had slipped into the background, but her voting didn't look suspicious, and that day there were far more wolfish people around than her. The same day Rikae said that that day Boro seemed quite sensible and sincere, at least.

Mith & Rikae
On day 4 Mith didn't look especially suspicious to Rikae, and she found herself wondering where the bandwagon came from the previous day. Voted for Form when it was all about Mith or Shasta being lynched.

Conclusion: They didn't speak much about one other, and if they did they found one other innocent. However, there's something I noticed about Rikae. After Shasta's revealing he voted for me, and was worried when it started to seem other people might not follow her; "Nog, are you saying that Shasta's revelation should let Aganzir off the hook?" Somehow it looks like she knew there would not be a competing claim (since Shasta was the ranger). If you have suspected him yourself, didn't it occur to you that he might have just been bluffing in order to out the ranger, since he was heavily suspected?

Boro & Eönwë
On day 3 he said he may have to start reconsidering his thoughts about him, since he had voted for EW while Boro and I were talking about lynching Nerwen. On day 4 Boro was baffled about Eönwë, but hinted at the direction that he might be a wolf ("An apologetic wolf is not unheard of."). As far as I can see, Eönwë didn't really mention Boro.

Mith & Eönwë
On day 4 Eönwë said he didn't know why he had voted for Nilp, and had he been there later, he would probably have voted for Mith. He also voted for her that day.

Conclusion: Could be fellow wolves or could be not. Somehow, Eönwë seems to avoid mentioning Boro, who didn't speak about him more than in the analysis, which he made of everyone. Eönwë says he could have voted for Mith also the previous day, but voted for Nilp instead, for no reason, "I'll explain when I can," (when it was either Mith or Nilp who would be lynched) - the wolves had probably decided to sacrifice her after that.

**

I feel a bit better about Kitanna, a bit worse about Rikae, and worse about Eönwë.

**

Whoops, a correction to my last post. Eönwë was indeed around after Shasta's revelation (but did he vote? No? Why?). However, Boro might not have counted on him going to reveal.

**

I'll be leaving again, and I'm not sure if I'll be back anymore today.

edit: xed with Eomer and two Kits

[Eönwë]

First of all, the obvious:

++Boromir88

[Eönwë]

Hmm... Have I become a chief suspect now?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Whoops, a correction to my last post. Eönwë was indeed around after Shasta's revelation (but did he vote? No? Why?).

My internet died on me, just as I was about to post. Not my fault.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Eönwë (because of Kath-kill)

And how am I connected to the Kath kill, someone please tell me.

[Eönwë]

The only problem is that now we have no ranger and no seer, so all our defensive powers are gone, and the wolves are free to do what they want, without being stopped or seen. That's obviously why they killed Shasta.
So that they could be free.