Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

And what's a snowbird doing here? I thought they liked warm weather, not the frozen north. And how does he know so much about languages?

My dear the phantom, it's summer. This is the time snowbirds spend up north.

Though, granted, there aren't mosquitoes in Ariz... I mean, in Umbar.

And it's rather chilly.

Curse those dead Rangers for talking me into this! How am I supposed to get back to Annúminas in time for my motorcad... I mean, my waggon train, back to Ariz... I mean, Umbar? Dying on us like that, really! It's most inconvenient.

As for how I know so many languages? Are you insinuating, Mr. the Phantom, that we men of the land can't handle tough academics? The Valar know we have time for it, sitting there on our tracto... I mean, walking behind the plow.

Besides, I'm Dúnedain. Elvish languages are the only one I can read!

As for why I'm along... I'm a retiree. Sight-seeing tours are what we do!

Now, if you'll excuse me, my senior citizen's bladder ain't what it used to be...

[Lalaith]

Lalaith absently ambled into the group, rubbed her hair distractedly and peered down through her possibly non-canonical pince-nez.

"hmm...this is a pretty pickle. We have, let us see now...yes, two killers amongst us and four primed to aid them through bafflement and confusion.
Now, on this point, Nogrod my dear chap, I would like an explanation of 2.1.2.1, for while I am a professor of ancient lore and not mathematics, would you not say the ratio is 1:3 rather than 2:16? And while we are on the subject of bafflement and confusion masquerading as clarity and helpfulness, the Tractatus format is not easily beaten, eh?
Well, no matter.

First days are usually utter rubbish, in my opinion

On this I am inclined to agree, at least while one is enduring them. But afterwards, they can be very useful, at an empirical level, when developing a hypothesis. But of course, we are seeking four cobblers as well as two wolves and on Day One it is remarkably easy for anyone to look like a cobbler.

why worry? They need to be left to the Cobbler Hunter

Now then, Indy-phantom, this seems somewhat glib reasoning. There are four of the wretches and for the Cobbler Hunter to catch them all is highly improbable.
I seem to remember a similar case, now, in the lore-books...let me think, Roa I think the afreet was named, she wreaked havoc around the group until she was caught and stopped. Four such determined mavericks at work, at once, would make our task near-impossible.
So, where was I? Ah yes. To sum up, those of us who are left tomorrow, and in the days that follow, need to sift through the records and attempt to distinguish between wilfully rather than just accidentally unhelpful behaviour, as well as the usual signs of wolvery."
At this, Lalaith wandered off, reading a dusty tome and muttering in truly stereotypical style.

[Groin Redbeard]

Then it was that Groin, who had long been silent, spoke.

"Eonwe speaks wisely, as well as Gwathagor. We will not solve anything today but the best method to seek out the wolves. Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then. Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!"

[the phantom]

Wow. I expected to come home and find a couple of pages worth of yapping. But not so.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I kind of hope for you to be right in here but fear you're wrong.

So you still think the Cobblers might know each other? We'll just have to disagree on that then.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean why only two wolves then with a village of 18?

Yes, and no cursed villager either. That does seem unbalanced.

But of course there is no Ranger either, and the WW Hunter has been changed to a Cobbler Hunter.

Do Rikae and Mac believe in the ability of the blind individual cobblers to lead us others astray so much that they leave the bad side at that disadvantage

I think the Cobblers' ability to mislead us is worthless, because obviously at no point can they ever have concrete information about anyone's identity, and thus they cannot knowingly mislead us.

Here's what a Cobbler can do-
Best case scenario- self vote to clinch the win at the end.
Next best- draw out a gifted. (but this is very difficult under the current set up)
Option three- get themselves lynched.

Option three is the most attainable. No doubt the Cobblers would like to be able to survive and clinch the win at the end, but I cannot imagine that every Cobbler will lay low in survival mode. If I was a Cobbler I would start trying to make myself lynch target no later than day three if I was still alive. The simple fact is, a Cobbler dying at night is a complete disaster for the evil side, for they've either been slain by the Hunter or by their own team, the WWs.

It is my guess that this is what Mac and Rikae had in mind when they chopped the WWs down to two. They were banking on Cobblers wasting a couple of lynches. If they're extremely lucky, three lynches.

The Cobbler Hunter has quite a decision to make. Go for people laying low, banking on catching a Cobbler who wants to make a move towards the end, or go for people who look likely to be lynched, because perhaps that is exactly what they want.

What the Cobblers actually do depends completely on what sort of person they are. Do they calculate odds and play percentages, or do they play by feel, or are they content only with brave and bold moves for the ages?

We'll see.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Groin Redbeard

"Eonwe speaks wisely, as well as Gwathagor. We will not solve anything today but the best method to seek out the wolves. Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then. Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!"

I hope that you lot are among the first of many to see such good sense. As the old almanacs will show, I've a mighty strong dislike for those who go around preaching that they will catch wolves, using their mighty skills on Day 1.

Originally Posted by the phantom

If I was a Cobbler I would start trying to make myself lynch target no later than day three if I was still alive. The simple fact is, a Cobbler dying at night is a complete disaster for the evil side, for they've either been slain by the Hunter or by their own team, the WWs.

I hope everyone's paying heed to this... on about Day 3 (if the Phantom hasn't died by then), pay close heed to his actions... and if they stay the same, kill him as a Cobbler.

Yes, yes the Phantom sir, we know full well that you are:

Originally Posted by the phantom

calculate odds and play percentages, or do they play by feel, or are they content only with brave and bold moves for the ages

All of the above.

You'll calculate the odds, play it by feel, and make bold moves.

We'll probably have to lynch you by the end of ToMorrow, but you'll probably talk us out of it and we'll live to regret it.

Or you're the seer, in which case you'll be dead ToNight and we'll all be doomed.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Here's what a Cobbler can do-
Best case scenario- self vote to clinch the win at the end.
Next best- draw out a gifted. (but this is very difficult under the current set up)
Option three- get themselves lynched.

Option three is the most attainable. No doubt the Cobblers would like to be able to survive and clinch the win at the end, but I cannot imagine that every Cobbler will lay low in survival mode. If I was a Cobbler I would start trying to make myself lynch target no later than day three if I was still alive. The simple fact is, a Cobbler dying at night is a complete disaster for the evil side, for they've either been slain by the Hunter or by their own team, the WWs.

Nerwen looked up from scrubbing the blood off the floor. "Um... yes... agreed... but aren't you afraid that any cobblers who may be within earshot will find this rather instructive?"

EDIT: x'd with Formendacil.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Form

but you'll probably talk us out of it and we'll live to regret it

I doubt it. If you live, that would mean that you win, right?

So living to regret it seems to be impossible.

Originally Posted by Form

Or you're the seer, in which case you'll be dead ToNight and we'll all be doomed.

Well, we'd better just call the game right now then, of course. We lose.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

but aren't you afraid that any cobblers who may be within earshot will find this rather instructive?

Absolutely.

[the phantom]

Okay, Nerwen, I suppose you deserve a more serious answer than that.

First- the Cobblers, if they take their roles seriously, have already thought of the Cobbler role much more than everyone else, and so it is likely that everything I pointed out is already known to them.

I am fully aware that perhaps one of the Cobblers might find my posts to be instructive, but I think it is worth it to make all of these thoughts known to the entire village, as perhaps it will help multiple villagers organize their thoughts.

And then there's this- listening to me could very well help them play better, but if they play according to my advice then we shall know exactly what to look for, correct? Ideas alone won't give the game to the Cobblers. They have to be able to pull off the moves better than we can spot them. I am trying to set up the way this village should be played, and then hope that I am able to play it better.

[Gwathagor]

I disagree with the phantom. There is a fourth option for cobblers: to confuse and mislead in any direction they can. As long as they are muddying the waters and inhibiting clarity of thought among the group, they are helping the wolves, since we're not likely to lynch wolves by accident, given the odds.

If I was a cobbler who was unaware of the identity of my fellows, this is what I would do.

[Nerwen]

Suddenly Nerwen, her pale face eerily lit by the blazing torch she carried, appeared in the gloom of the chamber's entrance.

"Oh, hello," she said, stepping carefully over the tragically mutilated remains, "I've just been having a look around, to see what I can find. No offence, phantom, but you and I are business rivals... and I don't think I want to purchase my treasures from a self-described seller of pointless fakes.

Now, this place echoes a lot, and I picked up quite a bit of this cobbler-related conversation as I made my way through the tunnels.

My opinion is that the much-talked about sentence

They saw each other, though the vision was too blurry and dark to reveal a thing.

means that the cobblers know of each other's existence, but not identity.

I will share further reflections with you once I've cleaned up a bit... I mean, it doesn't seem right just to leave what's left of our Rangers all over the place..."

And Nerwen started gathering up the pieces.

EDIT: X'd with phantom.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Groin Redbeard

Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then. Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!"

Slightly ironic, don't you think?


Ok, well at least more people have spoken up. But it's day one, so anything could happen.

And look at the post-counts. I wonder who's ahead :

the phantom 16
Nogrod 6
Eönwë 5
Gwathagor 5
Macalaure 3
Formendacil 2
Nerwen 2
Durelin 2
Brinniel 1
Groin Redbeard 1
Thinlómien 1
Lalaith 1
Shastanis Althreduin 1
Rikae 1

edit: x-èd with Lommy