Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[A Little Green]

Really, this is a bit too quiet.

Originally Posted by Nilp

Oh, and I just thought of this: Gifteds, if anyone comes out and says he/she/it is so-and-so, but you know they're not, because you are, don't counter-declare. He/she/it may help lynch an innocent for one DAY, but at least we get the satisfaction of him/her/it being chewed the following NIGHT.

Of course, the impostor could very well be a wolf, and not a mere cobbler, which means a counter-declaration the following DAY could be a mess. So I guess it'd help if the cobbler assassin targets our impostor, too, that NIGHT.

I fear I don't follow the logic. Could you clarify?

I had some point I would have liked to bring up but unfortunately forgot what it was.


EDIT: x-ed with Ëonwë - Hooray! Someone is here! Hello!! (Oh crap, my triple post ceased to be a triple post...)

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Ëonwë

And, not to be rude, but this isn't the stock excchange, by the way. People here would like actual valuable things such as Sam's belt buckle which was stolen by wights.

Honestly, man, belt buckles are so last se... umm... age. (Try our newest pocket-size supernova! *salesperson smile*)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Honestly, man, belt buckles are so last se... umm... age. (Try our newest pocket-size supernova! *salesperson smile*) (Greenie)

Do you happen to have the rare collector quark star? I heard from the people of Further Harad that the quark star is supposed to turn a cobbler into a banana split.

*wink wink at everyone*

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I fear I don't follow the logic. Could you clarify? (Green)

Situation: Someone claims to be gifted.

Possibilities:

1. He/she/it is telling the truth.
2. He/she/it is lying, and is a cobbler.
3. He/she/it is lying, and is a wolf. (Less possible than Possibility B, due to scarcity of wolves.)

Best Response of Gifted:

1. Nothing.
2. Do not counterclaim, hope that wolves believe the 'gifted' and he/she/it is consumed that NIGHT.
3. Counterclaim immediately, and get a wolf's head.

*But how to differentiate between Possibility B and C? Nearly impossible, so play the numbers game (2:1 cobbler:wolf ratio + value of wolvish numbers to Evil Side) and do Response B.

A somewhat random plan of response, and there are many holes to be plugged, but I do hope it achieves its purpose.

[Durelin]

Nilp makes excellent points. The gifteds should not come out if there is a false reveal. As we saw last game, counter-reveals are rarely believed. In this game, though, the cobblers have more reason for and more to gain from a false reveal.

Of course, after talking about it this way, I wonder if a cobbler would risk it. Probably. They don't have much to lose.

I really am finding it hard to even toss out random suspicions atm. I'm always for lynching the phantom, though. I say we give Nogrod a little time.

Sudden thought: I bet Mith makes a great cobbler.

[the phantom]

*Phantom wakes up and is surprised to see that so little has happened*

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I make a good cobbler. *pouts* Why pick on my mum, huh?

She's not your mother in this game.

Riiiiiight.

[Durelin]

Because to me you quite obviously make a good cobbler.

[the phantom]

Okay, here are my thoughts as of this moment.

Feanor of the Peredhil, Kitanna, Kath- Haven't shown up yet. Is this because they know good and well that Day 1 lynch candidates nearly always emerge from the villagers who've actually been around on Day 1?
Shastanis Althreduin- hasn't said much, but makes sense
Formendacil- one in character post, one post that says I'm a Cobbler or Seer
Eönwë- in character, a bit of support for me, down on Nog

(more people on the way, I'm going down the list....)

[the phantom]

Lalaith- one post, but feels okay
A Little Green- I can't get a read on her
Thinlómien- her list makes me uncomfortable, don't know why
Groin Redbeard- not much to go on
Mithalwen- doesn't matter what she is, she should never be killed, she's too smart and charming and all that

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Mith

I am sure one of you clever folk will probably spot a gaping hole in my reasoning but would it be completely stupid to lynch Kitanna if we don't get a better idea. We are going to lose her anyway?

What, is she not going to be able to play or something? Is there modfire?

[Mithalwen]

Does noone read the admin thread....? IF in doubt read the instructions...

[the phantom]

To summarize my current leanings, I'm somewhat wary of-
Formendacil
Groin
people who haven't posted
people from Finland

I'm currently very trusting of-
Nilp
Gwath
Mith

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Sudden thought: I bet Mith makes a great cobbler.

If you mean shoes probably not, if you mean one of those dishes with a scone topping well yes but not really my culinary style.

But in the context of Werewolf, who knows? Given that I can go a long time between picking werewolves I sometimes feel that I have been an unwitting cobbler in many of the games I have played. So while I suppose that should be a compliment, it would be a mistake to confuse haplessness with malice....

Nilp darling I love you too. *hugs*. But I can't remember playing a game with Durelin in which she hasn't suspected me. So it is quite normal for her to pick on me.

I need to read - got a little delayed and now distracted.

[the phantom]

Nerwen- seems honest thus far
Nilpaurion Felagund- entertaining and sensible
Durelin- a little like Nilp
Brinniel- puts off the innocent vibe
Gwathagor- we disagree, but I do not suspect him at all
Nogrod- he stumps me, nice in character stuff, and obviously spent some time with his points, most of which make perfect sense, but something about him seems off

(five more people to go...)

[Mithalwen]

I am sure one of you clever folk will probably spot a gaping hole in my reasoning but would it be completely stupid to lynch Kitanna if we don't get a better idea. We are going to lose her anyway? I know it doesn't get us a wolf (unless she is one) but we can't do any other harm?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I am sure one of you clever folk will probably spot a gaping hole in my reasoning but would it be completely stupid to lynch Kitanna if we don't get a better idea. We are going to lose her anyway? I know it doesn't get us a wolf (unless she is one) but we can't do any other harm?

That actually sounds like an ok idea. It'd better than going for the 8/9 possiblity of getting an innocent.
The problem is that Day 1 will lose its value even more, until at least Day 3, when it might be already too late. We can't analyse people, as we don't have anything to go on. And this might make Day 2 almost as unproductive as Day 1 (but we will still have the WW kill and possibly the Cobbler Assassin kill). Because we'll have much less to work with, we might, at worst, lose 4 of our number (that's a third) by the beginning of Day 3 (two wrong lynches and two night kills) and then we'd not have many chances left.
On the other hand, even if worse comes to worst, we'd only lose 4 all in all. If we lynch someone else today, who turns out not to be a wolf, but is an innocent then we could at maximum lose 5, which would be devastating for us.

But is it risk we should take? I'm not sure...

edit: x-ed since Lommy #75

[Thinlómien]

Funny, I did get Nilp's original point, but when he started elaborating on it, I got confused.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I don't think it's any big news that I'm annoyed by the phantom's open aim to manipulate the village. Even if he was right and his way of playing this village was profitable, I'd still prefer it so that every player plays in the way s/he sees fit. I don't think it's anyone's duty or right or even possibility to choose how the village is to be played.

Well, darling, we can always just ignore him. Let him say what he wants, we don't have to obey him. As long as he doesn't insist on anyone following his guidelines, I think we can cope with him.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I disagree - I think two wolves are as hard to find as five. Though we have less wolves to catch, we also have a bigger chance of lynching a non-wolf. A very cunning wolf can fool us just as neatly with one or four packmates.

Okay, they might not be easier to find per se, but there being just two of them makes the game easier for us. If there are just two wolves, they can't win by numbers ie it will take a long time until their number equals that of the innocent villagers, so we should have plenty of time to lynch innocents and cobblers before it gets too dangerous...

Originally Posted by Mith

I am sure one of you clever folk will probably spot a gaping hole in my reasoning but would it be completely stupid to lynch Kitanna if we don't get a better idea. We are going to lose her anyway? I know it doesn't get us a wolf (unless she is one) but we can't do any other harm?

...what? Why Kitanna? Because she's not talking? But Fea and Kath aren't talking either... Have I missed something, or what is it?


edit: xed with tp

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Well, darling, we can always just ignore him. Let him say what he wants, we don't have to obey him. As long as he doesn't insist on anyone following his guidelines, I think we can cope with him.

Yes. the phantom is a cobbler even if he doesn't count as one.

[the phantom]

Ignore me at your own peril, Lommy and Eonwe, for I speak truth, and can be very entertaining.