Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

the phantom · 08-20-2008, 11:29 AM

Rats! I've lost my business partner!

Okay Mith, as far as your idea about lynching her... hmm....

On one hand I can't imagine that she's gifted, so lynching her would ensure that we didn't have a complete Day 1 disaster.

On the other hand we will lose a chance to catch a baddie.

Now, earlier I said that the goal of a Cobbler is to die during the day, and we have a greater chance of hitting a Cobbler than a Gifted or WW. But that said, lynching a Cobbler today would not be a victory for them as compared to lynching Kitanna, for the loss of Kitanna is already a guarantee! She's going to die. And therefore lynching a Cobbler when a death is already in the bag would surely be a loss for the evil team.

So all in all I think we might want to try our luck and lynch someone else.

Gwathagor · 08-20-2008, 11:43 AM

I agree that a lynch should be considered a valuable opportunity to rid ourselves of a wolf, but how often do we get a wolf on the first Day? I don't doubt that it has happened, but never in any of the games I've played in. Most successful lynches occur later on in the game, as a result of the build up of the information necessary to form a case against a wolf, which is not present at the beginning of the game. One could argue that the village merely has better odds of getting a wolf as the game progresses, but I'm not a complete cynic and I don't believe that a successful lynch is purely the result of luck. If we did believe that, we wouldn't bother arguing. So, why risk losing two innocents on the first night, when we could just lynch Kitanna, who we're going to lose anyway, and keep the maximum amount of villagers possible alive as long as possible, thereby buying ourselves time to sift out the wolves?

Mithalwen · 08-20-2008, 11:48 AM

Gwath - there are a dozen or so of us who call ourselves Fenris Wolves because we were lynched first day so it does happen but I don't think we have added to the pack for a while and we do only have 2 wolves - though aided by four fellow travellers. So teh odds are reduced.

08-20-2008, 11:29 AM	#1
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Rats! I've lost my business partner! Okay Mith, as far as your idea about lynching her... hmm.... On one hand I can't imagine that she's gifted, so lynching her would ensure that we didn't have a complete Day 1 disaster. On the other hand we will lose a chance to catch a baddie. Now, earlier I said that the goal of a Cobbler is to die during the day, and we have a greater chance of hitting a Cobbler than a Gifted or WW. But that said, lynching a Cobbler today would not be a victory for them as compared to lynching Kitanna, for the loss of Kitanna is already a guarantee! She's going to die. And therefore lynching a Cobbler when a death is already in the bag would surely be a loss for the evil team. So all in all I think we might want to try our luck and lynch someone else. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

08-20-2008, 11:43 AM	#2
Gwathagor Shade with a Blade Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: A Rainy Night In Soho Posts: 2,512	I agree that a lynch should be considered a valuable opportunity to rid ourselves of a wolf, but how often do we get a wolf on the first Day? I don't doubt that it has happened, but never in any of the games I've played in. Most successful lynches occur later on in the game, as a result of the build up of the information necessary to form a case against a wolf, which is not present at the beginning of the game. One could argue that the village merely has better odds of getting a wolf as the game progresses, but I'm not a complete cynic and I don't believe that a successful lynch is purely the result of luck. If we did believe that, we wouldn't bother arguing. So, why risk losing two innocents on the first night, when we could just lynch Kitanna, who we're going to lose anyway, and keep the maximum amount of villagers possible alive as long as possible, thereby buying ourselves time to sift out the wolves? __________________ Stories and songs.

08-20-2008, 11:48 AM	#3
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,463	Gwath - there are a dozen or so of us who call ourselves Fenris Wolves because we were lynched first day so it does happen but I don't think we have added to the pack for a while and we do only have 2 wolves - though aided by four fellow travellers. So teh odds are reduced. __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Switch to Linear Mode Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode