Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Macalaure]

Long and tiresome were the daily marches of our adventurers and Morgoth's maze seemed endless. Maybe if they had been able to focus solely on walking, they would be able to make it out more quickly, but every day they had to discuss the danger they were facing, and especially who among them were culpable for this danger. While their lungs were more than busy breathing, having to talk all day proved to be too much of a strain for some.

We dwarves are natural sprinters.... were the last words heard from Groin Redbeard before he laid himself down on the path and died quietly, never to return to his mines. The discussions were only marginally influenced by this event.

Shasta was the first to put his foot down: I most vehemently do not like phantom. He received a mixed response and much arguing ensued. Gwathagor, who already was under much scrutiny the last day, slowly and silently gwathered more and more antagonists. In the end, it was decided that he was evil and should die.

I pray to you, do not kill me! he pleaded.

Why? We have decided you are evil. Therefore you are. Nilpaurion made clear.

No, no, you're making a terrible mistake. Trust me. I promise I'll come back and tell you what it is later...

But no more was he able to say. With a swift move Nilp grabbed Gwathagor's tongue and, with a strength unheard of for such an old man, ribbed it out. Then Eönwë appeared and tried to stab Gwath with his sword. Unfortunately, since his sword was faked - and pointless - this proved a lot more difficult than he expected. Being dissatisfied with Eönwë's attempt, Lily took her own dagger and stabbed at Gwath, but her lack of sight hindered her severely. At last the phantom stood in front of the tongue-less and beaten Gwathagor, and with a rare antique gladius, and the words Sorry lad. Either you or me. he hewed at Gwathagor with repeated and heavy strokes, leaving nothing but a pile of bloody flesh and bones.

Gwathagor was dead.

Doesn't really look like Gwath was a wolf. Nogrod remarked.

Disappointed the group moved on, looking for a place to stay for the night. Just as they were turning away, they heard words coming from what was once Gwathagor

Take this kiss upon the brow!
And, in parting from you now,
Thus much let me avow
You are not wrong, who deem
That my days have been a dream;
Yet if hope has flown away
In a night, or in a day,
In a vision, or in none,
Is it therefore the less gone?
All that we see or seem
Is but a dream within a dream.

Gwathagor was the seer.

*~*

Dead:
Macalaure and Rikae (mods) - killed by wolves and turned into faulty quenya in Night One
Kitanna (ordo) - lynched by a pointless mob on Day One
Lalaith (ordo) - severed from her chalk, and her head, in Night Two
Groin Redbeard (ordo) - died from exhaustion on Day Two
Gwathagor - (seer) turned into a talking corpse on Day Two

Alive:
Feanor of the Peredhil - visionary whose visions lean toward the abstract
Shastanis Althreduin - loner roane
Formendacil - snowbird
Eönwë - seller of pointless fakes
Nerwen - treasure-seeker
Kath - unemployed bum
Nilpaurion Felagund - aged tale-seeker
Durelin - eccentric, misanthropic archaeologist
Brinniel - junk collector
Nogrod - pointless philosopher
A Little Green - blind astronomer who sells stars at the stock exchange
the phantom - obtainer of rare antiquities
Thinlómien - marine zoologist
Mithalwen - factotum

Night Three has begun. Wolves: plot and kill. Assassin: assassinate. Others: shhh.

[Macalaure]

The expedition awoke from a peaceful night. Despite having lost their precious seer, it seemed to them like no evil thing had happened that night. When they prepared themselves to leave for today's march, they noticed something that made them think that even a miracle had happened. In a corner of the room they were sleeping in, they found many different items, a bow and arrows, cups, provisions, tooth picks, and other helpful things.

Praise the Valar for these useful gifts! the adventurers cried... until they had a closer look at what these diverse gifts were made of, after which they turned their faces away in disgust. They looked around, and only now they realized that Mithalwen, their factotum, was missing. What had happened during the night?

*~*

At the end of the last day, after many hard hours of marching - and an ill-advised lynching - our adventurers fell asleep quickly once they set up their camp. Two, however, only faked it, and they got up as soon as they deemed themselves safe. Quietly they made their way over their sleeping former comrades until they found the person whose life they desired to end this night. They could have killed their victim silently without waking her, but that was even below their lowly honour.

Mithalwen, oh Mithalwen dear. their whispered into their victim's ear, and Mithalwen woke up - only to look into the bloodthirsty eyes of two creatures of Morgoth.

Yet there was no fear in her heart, but something quite unexpected...

Oh my God! You are wolves, right? You are soo cool, you know. I never thought I'd ever get to see one of you! May I touch your fur?

The wolves backed away from this sudden onslaught of adoration. Shhh, be silent, you'll wake everyone!

Mith, however, was in no mental condition to restrain herself: But you are werewolves! You are going to kill all these nasty Valar-worshipping idiots! You rock! Then she hesitated. You know, I wanted to ask you something, but I'm not sure whether I should, but... may I ask you for an autograph?

The wolves exchanged looks. Well, I guess that's not a problem, what would you like us to write?

For Mithalwen, our biggestest fan!

The wolves smiled, obliged, and handed Mith her autograph.

She was confused. But this reads: Dear Mithalwen, you are going to be ki...

*~*

Dead:
Macalaure and Rikae (mods) - killed by wolves and turned into faulty quenya in Night One
Kitanna (ordo) - lynched by a pointless mob on Day One
Lalaith (ordo) - severed from her chalk, and her head, in Night Two
Groin Redbeard (ordo) - died from exhaustion on Day Two
Gwathagor - (seer) turned into a talking corpse on Day Two
Mithalwen - (cobbler) made into a diverse set of items in Night Three

Alive:
Feanor of the Peredhil - visionary whose visions lean toward the abstract
Shastanis Althreduin - loner roane
Formendacil - snowbird
Eönwë - seller of pointless fakes
Nerwen - treasure-seeker
Kath - unemployed bum
Nilpaurion Felagund - aged tale-seeker
Durelin - eccentric, misanthropic archaeologist
Brinniel - junk collector
Nogrod - pointless philosopher
A Little Green - blind astronomer who sells stars at the stock exchange
the phantom - obtainer of rare antiquities
Thinlómien - marine zoologist

Day Three has begun. Have fun with it!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It's funny, I actually expected Mith to die after reading her last post in the Admin thread. Anyway, so Mith was a cobbler. That tells us... what, exactly?

*swims off to peruse her posts*

And as for my end-of-day hyperness yesterday, I blame the seawater.

[the phantom]

Mith = Cobbler

She was making me wonder about that yesterday, when she was being so helpful.

Okay, I shall return to something I said yesterday-

Originally Posted by me

It's not really a trap. Well, it kind of is, but not one of my invention. It's something that someone else did that I think might possibly be a brilliant ploy and I'm trying not to say anything to make it misfire, because I honestly believe it might work. But we won't know till tomorrow if it worked completely.

Originally Posted by me

Now we will see what happens in the Night and see if the brilliant ploy that I thought I spotted will work.

Nerwen spotted it too, and Mith as well I believe- but I think both of them thought it was something slightly different. We'll see who's correct.

Well, it turns out I was part wrong about what I thought I had spotted. But I was part right as well. I still believe Nerwen and Mith saw it as well and reacted to it. Now that we know that she was indeed a Cobbler, Mith's reaction makes perfect sense. Nerwen's reaction makes me think that she is innocent.

Any guesses as to what was going on? Fea perhaps?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Any guesses as to what was going on? Fea perhaps?

Darling, this question reeks of fascinatingly unsettling adjectives.

Anyway:

Originally Posted by the phantom

Fea- I'll address this to you seeing as I'm rather confident you've caught it and you give me the best chance at finding the same wavelength without being too specific. I just need to bounce something off of you.

I understand that it can be a rather good idea to ruin one's credibility with certain members of the village for the sake of protection, but isn't there a huge risk of backfiring? Or do you think that it is simply worth the risk to protect someone who should not die and flush out someone who should. Argh... it's hard to say this without actually saying it. Do you understand where I'm coming from at all?

My answer, as soon as I read this, was, "Yes. I approve."

Now? And after yesterday's lynch?

I still approve.

My goal for the day is to spearhead campaigns (with no evidence provided by myself, because I'm too lazy to look for it and I'm hungry) against Lommy, Nogrod, and Shasta. Form is on my list of maybes. The phantom is still safe from my wrath, though he'll want to dance prettily to keep that way. I'm not worried about Greenie or Brin. I want to see more from Kath. The others? They've done nothing to garner my attention.

Phantom: whilst I still approve... dance pretty.

[the phantom]

You still approve, Fea?

That's wonderful. Problem is I have no idea what you're approving at this point.

You see, yesterday I was quite certain that you were the Seer and were running a brilliant double edged ploy.

I was quite confident that you had dreamed of me and knew me to be innocent, or at the least a non-Wolf, but in order to appear quite unSeerish to the WWs and in order to draw Cobblers out you painted me "guilty as sin".

It seems to me that Mith-Cobbler might have bit on it with her dedication to preserving me, and perhaps Form as well with his crazy Cobblerish attack on me. And I think Nerwen caught it as well, but she seemed to be hesitant until she got something clearer from you. Which makes me think that Nerwen is innocent.

So anyway, that's what I was talking about when I said this to you-

Originally Posted by me

I understand that it can be a rather good idea to ruin one's credibility with certain members of the village for the sake of protection, but isn't there a huge risk of backfiring?

I was saying that it was a great idea to point heavily at me to ruin your credibility with the WWs (make you look unSeerish), but that I was worried it would backfire, meaning that if you were killed during the Night the village would be sure to lynch me the next day.

But obviously I was completely off on part of that scenario, seeing as Gwath was the Seer.

[the phantom]

The big surprise for me was Gwath...the seer? Did anyone see that coming? I certainly didn't.

Me neither.

I did think more than once that he was not an Ordo, but I thought Cobbler was more likely, with only an outside chance of him being the Assassin. But I definitely wasn't thinking Seer. Probably because I thought I'd already located the Seer.

I'm not sure if I agree with you on his dreams though. I still need to go back and reread his posts, but based upon just that list that you quoted from him, I would peg Groin and Mith as his dreams. I mean- everyone else is "potential", "probable", or "probably". Or if they aren't that then they're "Cobbler", which the Seer cannot see. Only Groin and Mith have any sense of Seer certainty.

But as I said I'm not taking into account the rest of his posts. I shall go read them.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I was saying that it was a great idea to point heavily at me to ruin your credibility with the WWs (make you look unSeerish), but that I was worried it would backfire, meaning that if you were killed during the Night the village would be sure to lynch me the next day.

Ha! I was so close...

The way I took it was that you were intending to ruin your own credibility in order to divert attention from the person you thought was the seer (obviously not me, since I'm not the seer). The backfiring would be that bad guys caught on to who you were protecting and your ruse failed, leaving the seer dead and you - the innocent - vulnerable and without credibility. Ie: to be lynched the next day.

I certainly didn't think you took me as the seer! Ha. That's great. I have no magic powers, I just read people as they appear to me. You, my darling, have benefits to being kept alive. At least until I have to kill you in order for the village to win. In which case you're not beneficial, you're a liability.

Obviously once Gwath died (did ANYBODY think he was the seer? I certainly didn't...), my understanding of your scheme got a little shoddy. You couldn't be the seer, so you couldn't be ruining your own credibility (and thereby protecting yourself), and the actual seer seemed to have escaped your attention completely. I thought perhaps (which is why I still approved) that you might have a good idea of who was cobbler hunter or something. Basically, I was hoping that though the seer had kicked it, your noble intention to throw yourself to the wolves to protect somebody you thought was more important than you would still hold true.

Obviously I was wrong on that one... I mean, you don't think anybody is more important than you.

So anyway...

[Brinniel]

I expected Mith to be the one to die last Night, simply because it seemed everyone pushed her aside, regarding her as innocent. What I did not expect was her to turn out to be a cobbler; I really thought she was an ordo....obviously the wolves did not expect it either. Though when I think back on it, I suppose Mith's role isn't too big of a surprise..

The big surprise for me was Gwath...the seer? Did anyone see that coming? I certainly didn't. If he wasn't a cobbler as I suspected, I didn't think he'd be anymore than an ordo. Poor Gwath didn't really even get the chance to defend himself. I hate when that happens...

Anyway, looking back at Gwath's posts I found that the best possible clues came from here:

Originally Posted by Gwath

Feanor of the Peredhil - Potential wolf
Shastanis Althreduin - Probably innocent
Formendacil - Potential cobbler
Eönwë – Probably innocent, possibly a cobbler
Nerwen -
Kath -
Nilpaurion Felagund -
Durelin - Cobbler
Brinniel -
Nogrod - Probably innocent
A Little Green - Cobbler
the phantom - Potential wolf
Thinlómien - Probably innocent
Groin Redbeard - Innocent
Mithalwen - Innocent

Normally, I would read Lalaith's death as a sign that tp is not a wolf, as they both voted against each other yesterDay, and most wolves would like to avoid drawing attention to themselves in that way. However, tp thrives on attention and is supremely confident; therefore, he might try it. He could be a wolf, but I can't say for sure.

If tp is a wolf, Fea could be as well given the way in which she set herself firmly against tp right from the beginning of the Day.

Now, the uncertainty Gwath later shares with those he listed as 'potential wolf' makes me think he never dreamt of them.

Of all the players, he shows the most certainty with four (Durelin, Greenie, Mith, Groin)...my best guess is that he dreamt of two of them. At first I thought this might reveal a lot more info until I looked back at the rules and realised cobblers are dreamt of as innocent...then my whole theory went down the drain. But if it helps, I kind of doubt Mith and Groin were dreamt of. When Mith came up with the lynch Kitanna suggestion, she didn't seem that wolfish to me...and I think Gwath would've thought the same. And Groin only made one post on Day 1...I really don't think he captured enough attention to be a seer pick. Which leaves Durelin and Greenie...two who in my mind would be much likelier seer picks and I think they are who Gwath dreamt of. And what would that mean? Durelin and Greenie could be either ordos or cobblers....considering what Gwath labeled them, he obviously thought the latter.

Of course in my analysis, I could easily be wrong....but for now I believe it's more likely Greenie and Durelin are not wolves, though I would have to agree with Gwath that at least one could be a cobbler. Though if it's towards the end of the game and they're still not assassinated/mauled, I could very well change my mind....as I don't see why an assassin or wolf wouldn't target them at some point. Funny that I voted for both of them, but in light of this, I think they'll be the first I'd eliminate as lynching candidates for toDay.

[Nogrod]

As I look around me I see that there are seven people who are on my side and wish us to get away from this evil labyrinth and five who do not wish us well.

I'll make a first division then...

Those I have actually suspected in this game:
Feanor of the Peredhil
the phantom
Durelin

Those I'm quite baffled about:
Formendacil
Eönwë
Kath

Those I have no idea but am a bit worried:
Nilpaurion Felagund
Thinlómien

Those I have no idea but feel better with:
Shastanis Althreduin
Nerwen
Brinniel
A Little Green


What worries me the most is that the three I have suspected are those who have either been loud and visible / whom I have "analysed" a bit. That's not good. A noncontroversial wolf would have slipped just too nicely from my radar - and if they both play it safe at least I'm totally at the wrong tracks then. And that's what I fear now as I look at the list.

I need to get some more concrete stuff now. *goes back searching for anything that could help*