Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It's funny, I actually expected Mith to die after reading her last post in the Admin thread. Anyway, so Mith was a cobbler. That tells us... what, exactly?

*swims off to peruse her posts*

And as for my end-of-day hyperness yesterday, I blame the seawater.

[the phantom]

Mith = Cobbler

She was making me wonder about that yesterday, when she was being so helpful.

Okay, I shall return to something I said yesterday-

Originally Posted by me

It's not really a trap. Well, it kind of is, but not one of my invention. It's something that someone else did that I think might possibly be a brilliant ploy and I'm trying not to say anything to make it misfire, because I honestly believe it might work. But we won't know till tomorrow if it worked completely.

Originally Posted by me

Now we will see what happens in the Night and see if the brilliant ploy that I thought I spotted will work.

Nerwen spotted it too, and Mith as well I believe- but I think both of them thought it was something slightly different. We'll see who's correct.

Well, it turns out I was part wrong about what I thought I had spotted. But I was part right as well. I still believe Nerwen and Mith saw it as well and reacted to it. Now that we know that she was indeed a Cobbler, Mith's reaction makes perfect sense. Nerwen's reaction makes me think that she is innocent.

Any guesses as to what was going on? Fea perhaps?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Any guesses as to what was going on? Fea perhaps?

Darling, this question reeks of fascinatingly unsettling adjectives.

Anyway:

Originally Posted by the phantom

Fea- I'll address this to you seeing as I'm rather confident you've caught it and you give me the best chance at finding the same wavelength without being too specific. I just need to bounce something off of you.

I understand that it can be a rather good idea to ruin one's credibility with certain members of the village for the sake of protection, but isn't there a huge risk of backfiring? Or do you think that it is simply worth the risk to protect someone who should not die and flush out someone who should. Argh... it's hard to say this without actually saying it. Do you understand where I'm coming from at all?

My answer, as soon as I read this, was, "Yes. I approve."

Now? And after yesterday's lynch?

I still approve.

My goal for the day is to spearhead campaigns (with no evidence provided by myself, because I'm too lazy to look for it and I'm hungry) against Lommy, Nogrod, and Shasta. Form is on my list of maybes. The phantom is still safe from my wrath, though he'll want to dance prettily to keep that way. I'm not worried about Greenie or Brin. I want to see more from Kath. The others? They've done nothing to garner my attention.

Phantom: whilst I still approve... dance pretty.

[the phantom]

You still approve, Fea?

That's wonderful. Problem is I have no idea what you're approving at this point.

You see, yesterday I was quite certain that you were the Seer and were running a brilliant double edged ploy.

I was quite confident that you had dreamed of me and knew me to be innocent, or at the least a non-Wolf, but in order to appear quite unSeerish to the WWs and in order to draw Cobblers out you painted me "guilty as sin".

It seems to me that Mith-Cobbler might have bit on it with her dedication to preserving me, and perhaps Form as well with his crazy Cobblerish attack on me. And I think Nerwen caught it as well, but she seemed to be hesitant until she got something clearer from you. Which makes me think that Nerwen is innocent.

So anyway, that's what I was talking about when I said this to you-

Originally Posted by me

I understand that it can be a rather good idea to ruin one's credibility with certain members of the village for the sake of protection, but isn't there a huge risk of backfiring?

I was saying that it was a great idea to point heavily at me to ruin your credibility with the WWs (make you look unSeerish), but that I was worried it would backfire, meaning that if you were killed during the Night the village would be sure to lynch me the next day.

But obviously I was completely off on part of that scenario, seeing as Gwath was the Seer.

[the phantom]

The big surprise for me was Gwath...the seer? Did anyone see that coming? I certainly didn't.

Me neither.

I did think more than once that he was not an Ordo, but I thought Cobbler was more likely, with only an outside chance of him being the Assassin. But I definitely wasn't thinking Seer. Probably because I thought I'd already located the Seer.

I'm not sure if I agree with you on his dreams though. I still need to go back and reread his posts, but based upon just that list that you quoted from him, I would peg Groin and Mith as his dreams. I mean- everyone else is "potential", "probable", or "probably". Or if they aren't that then they're "Cobbler", which the Seer cannot see. Only Groin and Mith have any sense of Seer certainty.

But as I said I'm not taking into account the rest of his posts. I shall go read them.

[Thinlómien]

We killed our seer, but at least the wolves killed a cobbler. This is actually quite funny... if losing a seer can ever be funny, that is. But he looked so unseerish! I mean, I thought he was an ordo but I wouldn't have been surprised if he had been a wolf, but he definitely didn't look gifted at all to me, quite frankly, the idea of him being gifted never occured to me.

I think I would have voted him yesterDay. Now you're probably asking: "You think? Don't you know?" But honestly, when I logged in at the deadline minute, I hadn't decided whether I'd vote Gwath because in principle, he was a little suspicious and he'd be dead anyway, or whether I should just go on and vote Shasta anyway. (Speaking of him, I don't think I suspect him that much anymore. I don't know why.)

Looking at the list Brinn kindly provided, I'm inclined to agree with tp that Gwath probably dreamt of Mith and Groin. I think that simply "innocent" looks like a rather seerish comment. I don't understand Brinn's opinion that he would have hid his real dreams under cobbler-names - that's too vague, and besides, he must have realised that him naming two people just "innocent" is going to make people assume he dreamt of them. Seers take things like that into account.

If this assumption is correct, it's too bad, because then Gwath died without giving us any actual knowledge. Everybody he dreamt of is dead and so is he. So we have to go on without him... I'm not too worried yet, though, because we are eight against five at the moment, but if we don't catch a wolf soon, it will get worse.

Also, I don't know what to think of the fact that our cobbler hunter hasn't killed anyone yet... are the ones who look most cobblerish innocents then? Or has the assassin been unlucky or not-so-smart with his/her picks? What should we think of the fact that Form lives? I mean, I think everyone can agree that he looked very cobblerish yesterDay. Should we assume that our cobbler hunter is an individualist or had a strong hunch about someone else, or should we assume Form is not a cobbler? What is he then? A bold wolf or a weird innocent? I'm a bit baffled...

I hate it when tp and Fea are speaking some secret talk of theirs. Makes me feel stupid. Maybe we should lynch them? Seriously though, I wouldn't be too surprised if they were the wolves and publicly communicating with each other like that...

I find Brinn's post toDay weird. Is it again that I don't agree with her, I don't know, but she is again looking at things from some odd perspective that makes her look suspicious. Usually, when we're both innocent, we agree pretty much, and now we don't, so should I assume she's evil this time? I don't know...


edit: xed with Fea x2

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I was saying that it was a great idea to point heavily at me to ruin your credibility with the WWs (make you look unSeerish), but that I was worried it would backfire, meaning that if you were killed during the Night the village would be sure to lynch me the next day.

Ha! I was so close...

The way I took it was that you were intending to ruin your own credibility in order to divert attention from the person you thought was the seer (obviously not me, since I'm not the seer). The backfiring would be that bad guys caught on to who you were protecting and your ruse failed, leaving the seer dead and you - the innocent - vulnerable and without credibility. Ie: to be lynched the next day.

I certainly didn't think you took me as the seer! Ha. That's great. I have no magic powers, I just read people as they appear to me. You, my darling, have benefits to being kept alive. At least until I have to kill you in order for the village to win. In which case you're not beneficial, you're a liability.

Obviously once Gwath died (did ANYBODY think he was the seer? I certainly didn't...), my understanding of your scheme got a little shoddy. You couldn't be the seer, so you couldn't be ruining your own credibility (and thereby protecting yourself), and the actual seer seemed to have escaped your attention completely. I thought perhaps (which is why I still approved) that you might have a good idea of who was cobbler hunter or something. Basically, I was hoping that though the seer had kicked it, your noble intention to throw yourself to the wolves to protect somebody you thought was more important than you would still hold true.

Obviously I was wrong on that one... I mean, you don't think anybody is more important than you.

So anyway...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I was quite confident that you had dreamed of me and knew me to be innocent, or at the least a non-Wolf, but in order to appear quite unSeerish to the WWs and in order to draw Cobblers out you painted me "guilty as sin".

Oh, about this: I'm a realist: I prefer painting what I see. I think you are a force to be reckoned with.

I also think you're not the village's biggest threat. Not to bruise your ego or anything, sweetheart, but you don't scare me.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

The way I took it was that you were intending to ruin your own credibility in order to divert attention from the person you thought was the seer (obviously not me, since I'm not the seer). The backfiring would be that bad guys caught on to who you were protecting and your ruse failed, leaving the seer dead and you - the innocent - vulnerable and without credibility. Ie: to be lynched the next day.

Strangely enough, I read his post like that, too.

Anyway, Gwath=Seer? Wow!
He was definately good at diguising it. Too good.
Or maybe he wasn't diguising it enough, and you that the things a seer can say to be helpful can also sound like wolvish trickery.

Very interesting indeed.

[Eönwë]

Have you noticed the way the two people that died highly suspected tp?

So, wither he's the wolf or he's being framed. It would be an obvious thing to frame him, as he's such a high-profile, attntion-grabbing player. It would be easy to pin the blame on himm.
But if he was a WW, he could easily pin the blame on what I have just stated, placing us in an almost dead-end about this matter. (there is never actually a dead-end in WW, or at least not in the games that I have played or read, but then again, that's looking back on games, when you know everyone's roles and actions). But the phantom could pull it off, definately. If he's a wolf, it will definately take some time before he's lynched.

But who would frame tp? The first name that comes to my mind is Form. But he's meantt to be cobbler according to the majority consensus. But is he really? I wonder if the CA (Cobbler Assassin, not Canada or California) did choose him. We'll probably find out tonight, but then again, he might assuage our conviction of his cobblerism.
But of courseanyone could frame phantom. And it may even be be a double-frame, so the person we think may have framed tp is actually being framed himself.
Also, Nilp springs to mind. He seems even more obscure than usual. He's acting strange, like he's coooked up some evil plan. But I've only played one game with him. And if he acts the same way each time he's a wolf then I think he must be innocent.

So let's see what happens.

edit: no x-posting

[Nogrod]

One more seer lynched in the beginning of the game... That's no credit for us.

I don't claim to be anything like Mr. Right here but c'mon, where did you guys get the idea Gwath should be lynched? Both on Day1 and Day2! I would really like to hear from you Gwath-voters why did you think him a baddie - and it would be interesting to go back and see the claimed reasons as it looks there was some easy bandwaggoning included.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I hate it when tp and Fea are speaking some secret talk of theirs. Makes me feel stupid. Maybe we should lynch them? Seriously though, I wouldn't be too surprised if they were the wolves and publicly communicating with each other like that...

I did speculate on the possibilities with Fea and tp already yesterDay and I am not sure I wish to add to that anything like yet.

But let me add that toDay they look more like cobblers both of them trying to fill the thread with things that don't actually help us eg. speculating their mutual interpretations of what the other thought about this and that and all that other stuff. And with Eönwe already going along with that speculation it seems they are succeeding...


I do agree with tp that Gwath's dreams were Mith and Groin. That looks quite obvious looking at his list there with only the two marked clearly as innocents... all the others are speculative... also the cobblers, as he wouldn't have known that.

That's pretty bad as it means we have no known innocents by Gwath.

Looking at the bright side it seems our cobbler-assassin has two non-cobblers for us. Although we wouldn't know whether they are wolves or innocents... But let's hope s/he gets us a cobbler the next Night.

Okay. I'll check a few things and try to do something before going to sleep.


EDIT: X'd with Eönwe X 2

[Brinniel]

I expected Mith to be the one to die last Night, simply because it seemed everyone pushed her aside, regarding her as innocent. What I did not expect was her to turn out to be a cobbler; I really thought she was an ordo....obviously the wolves did not expect it either. Though when I think back on it, I suppose Mith's role isn't too big of a surprise..

The big surprise for me was Gwath...the seer? Did anyone see that coming? I certainly didn't. If he wasn't a cobbler as I suspected, I didn't think he'd be anymore than an ordo. Poor Gwath didn't really even get the chance to defend himself. I hate when that happens...

Anyway, looking back at Gwath's posts I found that the best possible clues came from here:

Originally Posted by Gwath

Feanor of the Peredhil - Potential wolf
Shastanis Althreduin - Probably innocent
Formendacil - Potential cobbler
Eönwë – Probably innocent, possibly a cobbler
Nerwen -
Kath -
Nilpaurion Felagund -
Durelin - Cobbler
Brinniel -
Nogrod - Probably innocent
A Little Green - Cobbler
the phantom - Potential wolf
Thinlómien - Probably innocent
Groin Redbeard - Innocent
Mithalwen - Innocent

Normally, I would read Lalaith's death as a sign that tp is not a wolf, as they both voted against each other yesterDay, and most wolves would like to avoid drawing attention to themselves in that way. However, tp thrives on attention and is supremely confident; therefore, he might try it. He could be a wolf, but I can't say for sure.

If tp is a wolf, Fea could be as well given the way in which she set herself firmly against tp right from the beginning of the Day.

Now, the uncertainty Gwath later shares with those he listed as 'potential wolf' makes me think he never dreamt of them.

Of all the players, he shows the most certainty with four (Durelin, Greenie, Mith, Groin)...my best guess is that he dreamt of two of them. At first I thought this might reveal a lot more info until I looked back at the rules and realised cobblers are dreamt of as innocent...then my whole theory went down the drain. But if it helps, I kind of doubt Mith and Groin were dreamt of. When Mith came up with the lynch Kitanna suggestion, she didn't seem that wolfish to me...and I think Gwath would've thought the same. And Groin only made one post on Day 1...I really don't think he captured enough attention to be a seer pick. Which leaves Durelin and Greenie...two who in my mind would be much likelier seer picks and I think they are who Gwath dreamt of. And what would that mean? Durelin and Greenie could be either ordos or cobblers....considering what Gwath labeled them, he obviously thought the latter.

Of course in my analysis, I could easily be wrong....but for now I believe it's more likely Greenie and Durelin are not wolves, though I would have to agree with Gwath that at least one could be a cobbler. Though if it's towards the end of the game and they're still not assassinated/mauled, I could very well change my mind....as I don't see why an assassin or wolf wouldn't target them at some point. Funny that I voted for both of them, but in light of this, I think they'll be the first I'd eliminate as lynching candidates for toDay.