Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[the phantom]

All right everyone. Time to lay out all of your cards.

There's no excuse for lynching the Assassin today. Who is it?

If we Ordos can rule out ourselves as well as one other person, then our odds of picking a WW will be 50%.

Don't vote quickly or lightly please. The WWs only need TWO of us to vote incorrectly to claim victory.

I am preparing my thoughts on each person. I'll post them in a bit.

[the phantom]

Thoughts on voting-

Durelin
Day 1 is possibly suspicious. Rather than going for the safe Kit lynch she opts to take a shot at the village. Other than that she's voted fairly early and fairly safely. Could be lying low. With Shasta almost guaranteed to vote for me, and knowing that Brin is innocent, if Shasta is innocent as well then her vote was a perfect Wolf vote, guaranteeing the lead to innocents who have yet to vote.

Kath
The second Nog voter, in hopes of sending the bandwagon rolling merrily along? Yesterday's vote- we know Brin was innocent. If Shasta and Lommy are too then Kath's vote was a brilliant Wolf vote. By elevating three people who haven't voted yet to the lead, it's often a guarantee that one of them will die.

Lommy
Jumping on the Fea-wagon Day 3 seemed suspicious to me, seeing as the rather obvious Form-Cobbler was the other option. I can't take much from her vote yesterday as her life was on the line. But I don't like that she ran ahead and lynched her dad when he was sounding more and more innocent to me as the clock ran down. Surely she knows him better than I?

Nerwen
Her Day 1 vote for Kit there at the end was odd. The deal was decided at that point, wasn't it? Why not go with something different? Nervous about making enemies? Her early vote yesterday for Shasta who was a safe bet to vote for me might've been an attempt to turn the Day into a two-horse race between innocents.

Shasta
He was the first to jump on board the Kit-wagon Day 1. Was he relieved to find a way out alive for free? Or just playing the odds? His voting has been consistent to say the least. Is it because he does not wish to make more enemies?

Conclusions-

Everyone is a Wolf!

I hate being an Ordo alive on a make-or-break day! I've done it once before and I was absolutely pulling my hair out. Of course in that village it turned out that none of us were WWs. (Fea was the Mod, surprise surprise)

[the phantom]

Phantom comes back home and finds.... nothing.

I have another obligation tonight, but when I return I am planning on doing some more rereading. However, it would be absolutely great if the Assassin could reduce my workload by 20%. I don't really have a lot of time to waste.

[Nerwen]

Well, it's clear now: the evil ones are Lommy and the phantom. Only our wolves have such talent at killing cobblers.

However, Eönwë was surely planning to slip through and self-vote at the end, so it's just as well you lynched him. I might never have got around to murdering him. Kath was next on my list.

Thanks–

Your Friendly Neighbourhood Assassin.

[the phantom]

Nerwen?! You are the Assassin?

I didn't suspect you at all! (I take that back. The first day I did, but you just sort of faded away after that.) After Eonwe was proven to be the Cobbler I figured for sure the Assassin was Shasta. That's why I've been so weird about him, especially yesterday. He was the one I was most worried about being a Cobbler, but I kept thinking he was perhaps the Assassin pretending to be a Cobbler, so either way I wasn't sure I wanted to lynch him.

Eönwë was surely planning to slip through and self-vote at the end

Yes, and I don't know why. With an even number of villagers a self-vote is not a clincher. His best bet would've been to make as many enemies as possible and get himself lynched. He did manage to get lynched, of course, but only because through either careful plotting or complete chance the three left to vote at the end were all tied for the lead.

Okay, well thank you, Nerwen. Now I don't have to go through your posts later tonight.

Only our wolves have such talent at killing cobblers.

Ha ha ha! Yes, I think they've been trying to put you out of business.

But hey, I tried to kill Form, didn't I? Can't I have a teensy bit of credit for that? And I also spotted Mith as one, but never got a chance to do anything about it because she died that night. Green was the only one that completely threw me for a loop. So I haven't done that terrible!

[the phantom]

I must attend to my guests now. I'll be back later.

EDIT: I'll chat later, Dur. I know my accusations aren't perfect. The fact is I can spin the same events as a positive or a negative. I'm just trying to give my reasons for why I am able to have a certain level of suspicion for everyone. Meh- badly explained. But really must run now!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

After Eonwe was proven to be the Cobbler I figured for sure the Assassin was Shasta. That's why I've been so weird about him, especially yesterday. He was the one I was most worried about being a Cobbler, but I kept thinking he was perhaps the Assassin pretending to be a Cobbler, so either way I wasn't sure I wanted to lynch him.

I did think of that as an alternative explanation of the way you were acting towards him– which otherwise was starting to look very suspicious. So either you're telling the truth or you've done a nice job of reading my mind.

Originally Posted by the phantom

NerwenAnd I also spotted Mith as one, but never got a chance to do anything about it because she died that night.

For the record, I was going to kill Mith on Night Three, but my ISP went down before I could post– you recall I wasn't around the next Day? Pity– the wolves got her anyway, but as Mac said, it would have made for a funny narration.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

or you've done a nice job of reading my mind

Heh, of course! I'm the phantom! But then really if I could read minds the game would be over by now, so I suppose I can't claim that ability.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

For the record, I was going to kill Mith on Night Three, but my ISP went down before I could post

Okay, so I've got to know. Was I right about you back then? Had you indeed spotted the same thing that I did with Fea, me, and Mith? Did you think Fea was the Seer?

Originally Posted by me

Nerwen spotted it too, and Mith as well I believe- but I think both of them thought it was something slightly different. We'll see who's correct.

Originally Posted by me

Well, it turns out I was part wrong about what I thought I had spotted. But I was part right as well. I still believe Nerwen and Mith saw it as well and reacted to it. Now that we know that she was indeed a Cobbler, Mith's reaction makes perfect sense. Nerwen's reaction makes me think that she is innocent.

So was I right about that? Just curious.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Your Friendly Neighbourhood Assassin.

That's why I didn't vote for your yesterDay, because I thought you might be. Glad I was right about something finally!

I agree with you on Kath especially, phantom, but two of your statements about me are rather ridiculous in my opinion. Two of them are at least partly based on the fact that I've been voting fairly early (and that is safe and trying to lead the village in a certain direction)! For Lord sakes, man, class comes before werewolf. Sorry, I just had to, on principle...of course I will seem needlessly defensive...

For our wolves, I'm thinking Kath and Shasta, though I am not ruling out phantom and really shouldn't rule out Lommy as I have been. Meh.

Right now I feel Kath is the most wolfish, but I don't know... A very quiet Kath is normally a wolf, right?

I'd love your opinions, Nerwen. Amazing job lying low but not too low, eh?