Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Boromir

Brin, check out this theory...Kath appeared, says she agrees with Mac's points against you and thus votes for you. You're a wolf, believed Kath was the seer, and she dreamed about you (because of the way she kind of sneakily enters in and casts a vote for you). Now you come in to the day asking about "why kill Kath?" to look like you're trying to help us.

or, well the wolves are setting you up honey.

Hah, well it must be the latter because I'm certainly not a wolf.

Anyway, do you really think I would kill someone on Night 2 thinking they're a possible seer just because they voted me? I know from past games I'm someone who's rarely ever dreamt of...and honestly, the possibility that the seer would dream of me on Night 1 is the last thing I'd expect.

Originally Posted by Mith

Kath is a very good player who hadn't been around much. She also wasn't an obvious choice for ranger protection.

Ah yes, the ranger...I almost forgot. Perhaps that's why the wolves didn't kill those who I thought would be more obvious choices. Good point.

[Macalaure]

CaptainofDespair only made one real post. He's mildly suspicious of me, Rikae, and Boro, so I would say that not both Rikae and Boro are wolves.

Kath only had one real post, too. She suspects Brinn and votes for her. She also slightly suspicious of Mith and says she doesn't know why people don't like Boro.

I still think she was killed for the lack of trails. But I think it's possible, though not too likely, that a Brinnwolf wanted to get rid of one of her attackers.

Early Votes:
Rikae -> Sally. More or less random vote.
Shasta -> Boro. Either hunch or spite.
Brinn -> Mac. A bit of a retaliation there, but on Day 1, you often don't have any better.
Gwath -> Rikae. Can't really follow his reasoning. Not sure what to think of this vote.

Mid-votes:
Caber -> CoD. Probably an innocent vote. He must've been aware that this vote could cause a bandwaggon.
Lal -> Brinn. I can see her reasoning, so her vote doesn't make me suspicious.
Fea -> Boro. Their feud has been going on all day, so the vote isn't surprising. I'm still somewhat uneasy about Fea and will look at her closely today.
Izzy -> CoD. Surely an innocent vote, because it keeps his name in the pot.
Kath -> Brinn.
me -> Cod. Most innocentish vote of all.

Late votes:
Nogrod -> Gwath. He's consistent in his suspicion. He could have voted Boro to save CoD (unless Boro's a wolf, too), but didn't.
Sally -> Boro. This vote has me thinking.
Mith -> CoD. This is most likely this is an innocent vote, but I could see it as a backstab, too. I think it's possible Mithwolf thought it was too risky to try to save him and instead decided to sacrifice him to make herself look good.
Boro -> Lal This has a bit of a throwaway feeling to it. However, if he and CoD are both wolves, why didn't Boro act earlier and gave his vote to a third candidate to make it possible for them both to survive?

The only vote that's somewhat suspicious is Sally's. This has me thinking at least one, maybe both, wolves are hiding among the earlier voters.

The Captain's Day One vote caused some eyebrows to be raised early. McCaber votes for him, Sally thinks about it, but then decides to give him a second chance. Then there's Izzy's vote rather out of the blue. After that, Nogrod ponders voting for him as a second-best choice. Mith and I then state we might vote for him and will later do so. Shasta, Sally, and Boro dissuade people from going after CoD. Nogrod refrains from it and goes with his first choice (who at this point was very unlikely to get enough support).

[Macalaure]

In a nutshell:

Worried about:
Brinn, Fea, Gwath, Sally

Slightly worried about:
Boro, Nogrod

No idea:
Nerwen, Nilp

Not sure about, but not alarmed:
Rikae, Shasta

Probably innocent:
Isabellkya, Lal, McCaber, Mith

[Nogrod]

Wow! Hopefully this will encourage people to lynch those who try to just slip through Day1 with nonsense in the following games. I mean if there would be that kind of general attitude the wolves (and innocents) would know they will have to actually play on Day1 as well and the game would become so much more interesting.

As I said yesterDay his playing style annoyed me but I was thinking of him as an ordo trying to get through Day1 as easily as possible to see whether he would get interested in the game later on.

Luckily many enough were ready to vote him off.


I'll summarise the few lists given here already to form myself a preliminary manual for where to look toDay.

McCaber, Isabell, Mac and Mith voted for CoD. Looking at the closeness of the race yesterDay it seems - like Brinn already commented - a bit unlikely there is a wolf among them. It's possible, to be sure but still...

CoD "suspected" Macalaure, Rikae and Boro. That was quite an early post and so he had no reason to believe he was going to get lynched. So it could be believable that those he mentioned were innocent indeed to whom he wished to point the discussion to go for. It's possible he put one of his fellows there to be sure but like Mac said it's improbable both of his mates are there and personally - at least for the time being I'm bending to think there are not even one of his mates there.

If these points are plausible - as working-hypotheses to begin with - then it would suggest that we could feel pretty safe with:

McCaber
Isabell
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Rikae
Boro

Nice list indeed. And I'd bet a lot against there being two wolves there.

So that leaves us with:

Nerwen
Feanor of the Peredhil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Nogrod
Gwathagor
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Brinniel
Lalwendë

And one or two wolves lurking there.

(Before anyone jumps on it: no, I'm not suggesting this is the final truth of the matter or think we should forget the above six and only notice what the rest say... No, no and no. I'm just trying to help myself to orientate and to see where to look in the beginning toDay.)

[Mithalwen]

I am afraid I am going th have to cut and run shortly - I do have to see the godchild so may be a semi random vote - hopefully which will turn out as well as the last one...

[Boromir88]

Nerwen
Feanor of the Peredhil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Nogrod
Gwathagor
satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin
Brinniel
Lalwendë~Nogrod

You don't feel safe about yourself Nogrod?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

You don't feel safe about yourself Nogrod?

Yeah... you know, slight schizophrenia and existential issues...

Actually:

Originally Posted by me

So that leaves us with:

So it was a general list... not my own list as such.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

McCaber, Isabell, Mac and Mith voted for CoD. Looking at the closeness of the race yesterDay it seems - like Brinn already commented - a bit unlikely there is a wolf among them. It's possible, to be sure but still...

CoD "suspected" Macalaure, Rikae and Boro. That was quite an early post and so he had no reason to believe he was going to get lynched. So it could be believable that those he mentioned were innocent indeed to whom he wished to point the discussion to go for. It's possible he put one of his fellows there to be sure but like Mac said it's improbable both of his mates are there and personally - at least for the time being I'm bending to think there are not even one of his mates there.

If these points are plausible - as working-hypotheses to begin with - then it would suggest that we could feel pretty safe with:

McCaber
Isabell
Macalaure
Mithalwen
Rikae
Boro

Nice list indeed. And I'd bet a lot against there being two wolves there.

I agree that those who voted against CoD are unlikely wolves, given, as you say, the closeness of the voting.

However, I'm inclined to be more wary of any lists of "suspects" that wolves produce, no matter what point in the game they occur. I'd bet that there's at least one wolf in that group. CoD doesn't seem to be the most sophisticated player (correct me if I'm wrong), and "suspecting" a fellow wolf is about as straightforward a wolf tactic as there is. But since we've exonerated Mac (since he was instrumental in lynching CoD), that leaves Boro and Rikae.

Which one, I couldn't say.

Also, Nogrod, could you explain your suspicion of me yesterDay? As far as I can tell, it's mostly groundless and exaggerated, compounded by the fact that you spent several posts fishing for other votes against me - which, of course, looks like a wolf trying to start a bandwagon.

That's all I've got for now.

[Mithalwen]

Gwath - do not underestimate Captain of Despair. He has a formidable mind as anyone has RPGed with him will tell uyou . His bold move didn't work this time and he doesn't play a lot but he does not lack sophistication.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Gwath - do not underestimate Captain of Despair. He has a formidable mind as anyone has RPGed with him will tell uyou . His bold move didn't work this time and he doesn't play a lot but he does not lack sophistication.

I am inclined to believe you on behalf of your greater experience. Of course, you could be a wolf as well.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I am inclined to believe you on behalf of your greater experience. Of course, you could be a wolf as well.

I fully admit I am not the worlds greatest success story as a wolf cf my reply to Boro today but I am not spo rubbish that I would have killed a packmate when there was a three way tie nearly up to the wire and a possibility of a late pact. If I were a wolf all the other three couldn't be ..all I would have had to do was pick a/the non wolf

[Boromir88]

I am inclined to believe you on behalf of your greater experience. Of course, you could be a wolf as well.~Gwath

To add to Mith's last post. If she was a wolf, there is no question in my mind she would have taken full advantage of the oppurtunity to lynch me yesterday.

[Mithalwen]

I may have said it looked like a spite vote - if so ..I am sorry to have caused offence but I just meant it as short hand for a vote influence by history/ retaliation whatever rather than just on the matters in hand.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So I went back and looked (my Time-Turner finally came! Yay!), and in regards to my vote for Boro yesterday... what I thought was suspicious yesterday is in actuality more fluff. I thought I saw an indirect attack on both Rikae and Fea, but it doesn't look so much like that now.

...Which leads me to believe that it was Boro's latent phantomic tendencies ("hijacking" a discussion? Really?) that caused me to vote him.

In all seriousness though, I'd like to apologize to Boromir (and I absolutely hate having to apologize, it gives me indigestion, seriously!) because my vote yesterday was basically unfounded and may or may not, in fact, have had something to do with the outcome last time we clashed. Sorry, I'll do better in the future.

(And it wasn't spite. )

Edit: X'd with Nog, Gwath, and Mith.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Also, Nogrod, could you explain your suspicion of me yesterDay?As far as I can tell, it's mostly groundless and exaggerated

Check my post #80 (second page, last post). It's quite compactly put there. It's not the the most solid case there could be, sure, but it's not bad as Day1-theories go.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Check my post #80 (second page, last post). It's quite compactly put there. It's not the the most solid case there could be, sure, but it's not bad as Day1-theories go.

Come on, Nogrod, you know what I think of Day 1 theories.

When I get back from dinner, I'll take a look at it.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Come on, Nogrod, you know what I think of Day 1 theories.

I do. But what you think about Day1 theories in general doesn't influence the correctness or incorrectness of any particular Day1 theory by anyone...

And believe it or not: I've been in a handful of games where indeed actual reasoning has gotten us a wolf on Day1. So you should give Day1's a bit more respect even if they oftentimes feel like randomized lottery.

The interesting fact is - just to say it aloud before going to sleep - that in villages where a majority thinks Day1's are hateful and stupid Day1's are the most random as no one really tries. And what follows from that they rarely offer too much hindsight even at the later stages if all people have done is banter and random-voting. In villages where majority goes all in from the earliest moments the Day1's are the most fruitful - and basically the ones where we have really gotten the wolves with brains and not by sheer luck.

Also it's clear that just whining about Day1's all Day1 is not actually playing them and that's unsporty and whatever. But most importantly it's good for the wolves as they can hide in the nonsense much easier than in the middle of arguments.

[Mithalwen]

Sorry this is not the semi random vote I expected but Shasta and Brinniel have quieted my suspicions a little and some such as Lal haven't reappeared. Nogrod still seems off ... still wouldn't be suprised if he were a cobbler.


However - I find Gwathagor's response, to my response on his "correct me if I am wrong" re Captain of Despair baffling. How that pointing out that COD isn't an unsphisticated thinker makes me a wolf is beyond me.

Especially since he just agreed with Nogrod that it was unlikely that a COD voter were a wolf.

Sorry got to go but will vote

++Gwathagor

[Boromir88]

It may be you Brinn have been framed. It may be Boro indeed is our cobbler and he has been grinning all the time he has read my post until now of course...~Nogrod

Nope, not the cobbler. I can see how you think that, I have been as Lal said "all over the shop." But my flippantness has innocent intentions, I like having fun and at least get people talking, especially on the slow Day 1's. Perhaps also some ego intentions, because I like the attention directed at me. However, you may start seeing a move to the more conventional Boromir as we are past Day 1 and in the serious stuff now.

My accusations against sally are completely serious, I think she was trying to pull the clever wolf ploy that has worked exceedingly well for me in my evil past. Also, I think Brin just sounds sincere and your "case" against her seems a bit forced. However, I will go back and do some re-examining on Brin if you consider taking a good look at sally.

Edit: Shasta, I apologize if you thought, I thought your vote was in spite. I did think it was a throw away and influenced by our last clash, but definitely not in spite. Thank you for the explanation.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Also, I think Brin just sounds sincere and your "case" against her seems a bit forced. However, I will go back and do some re-examining on Brin if you consider taking a good look at sally.

Even if I don't get that "I'll do X if you will do Y" -kind of exchange (would you not do X if I'd refuse to do Y?), I do agree that it would be good if someone else also looked after Brinn and I'm indeed going to look at Sally tomorrow after I wake up.

My suspicions on Brinn were raised in fact on yesterDay already (Mac's points looked reasonable compared with my own feelings of her posting) but I thought they were too little to justify a Day1 lynch. But then when toDay I saw Brinn's posting I also remembered the things from Day1 and therefore felt it important enough to bring something forwards. I need to look back at the yesterDay's stuff myself as well with Brinn as I have toDay only looked at two posts from her toDay.

[Boromir88]

Even if I don't get that "I'll do X if you will do Y" -kind of exchange (would you not do X if I'd refuse to do Y?)~Nogrod

It's time for me to point out what you pointed out to me a little bit ago...

Actually:

However, I will go back and do some re-examining on Brin if you consider taking a good look at sally.~me

Didn't say you had to do it.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm certainly not a wolf.

Okay, who's the next one to declare innocence?


But there are actually things in Brinn's posting I think merit a second look.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Anyway, do you really think I would kill someone on Night 2 thinking they're a possible seer just because they voted me?

I don't think anyone has said that. But if you're a wolf and saw Kath coming out of the blue just stating her suspicion & vote, you might think she could be the seer. And seers will have to go whatever the cost - even if it means the death of the seer frames one wolf. The seer is too dangerous not to be killed at the first possible instant.

Originally Posted by Brinn

honestly, the possibility that the seer would dream of me on Night 1 is the last thing I'd expect.

What you expect or don't isn't actually an argument in your favour in this case (or in any case). Why do you state that expectation? The more interesting part does begin right here.

So let's assume you're a wolf for the argument's sake. Now you realise that your trying to kill the seer backfired and you are exposed because someone guessed right the reason behind Kath's death. Understandably you feel an urge to purify your name and so you try to come up with every possible reason why the theory doesn't hold. Then you come up with a) I wouldn't kill someone for just voting me & b) and the seer wouldn't have dreamt of me anyway...

Now these surely might be things you could come up with and defend both of them. It's only that bringing them up together looks kind of fishy. I mean if you were an innocent you wouldn't probably think it that way, if you get what I mean.

And to add one small thing more; if you're an innocent why do you speculate about yourself being dreamt of in that fashion? If you're an innocent a seer dream means you're a known innocent by now. It's not something you should be afraid of or in need to convince others that has not happened - or that you would not expect that it has happened...

Ah yes, the ranger...I almost forgot. Perhaps that's why the wolves didn't kill those who I thought would be more obvious choices. Good point.

The classic, straight from the Werewolf handbook! Was it Hint #13 for tightening situations?

To open the Day by asking why Kath was killed and to leave an impression you had no idea is actually a sound wolf tactics as Boro already mentioned. Saying that you forgot about the ranger kind of underlines the very same thing: look at me, I have no idea why she was killed. But why would an innocent stress that so much? A wolf might feel the need to do that though...

And to add that classical "Good point" you try to help a common consensus to be built that the reason for Kath's death was her being a safe kill and not being one you thought was the seer...


Okay this is all very speculative. I admit it myself. But still it's my second best suspicion this far (Gwath still remaining my #1 at the moment).

It may be you Brinn have been framed. It may be Boro indeed is our cobbler and he has been grinning all the time he has read my post until now of course...