Tol-in-Gaurhoth LI: The Pain of Wargs

[Mithalwen]

Sorry if it duplicates, but time is short for me today.

The game will last at least 3 nights so if we get the extant Warg-enemies we win ... however there will be a rival pair of Warg-enemies after that. So that presumably will mean 2 kills per night but the possibility of them taking each other out.

If this is correct I suspect that the second pair are aware of their destiny and are cobbling. Lommie seems so cobblerish there has to be an explanation.

I have to vote early tonight - familystuff.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Legate is being quite helpful in helping us decipher this riddle left, but we can ponder all day about the pairs Eomer is talking about and not really accomplish anything.

Well, I was not actually trying to be helpful at all - like I said, I was doing that for myself, and also, to do something while waiting for everybody to show up. (By the way, do we have everyone here? What about Groin?)

Lommy: Sort of innocent, stirred away from the prophecy ideas and contributed something that could provide decent fodder for later.

When I saw this, I wanted to ask you about it, and even though Nogrod did too and you answered me, it still does not quite provide the answer for me. Just what did you mean? "Stirred away... and contributed something that could provide decent fodder for later." I.e., she contributed something else besides the prophecy-talk - here you must mean her accusations. I am not sure, but did you notice that she accused practically everyone? (Well, you did.) And I don't think it was serious at all. Quite obviously. Or was it? But in the case it wasn't, what "decent fodder for later" it may be?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So I'm afraid we can't read too much from those interpretations of the rules / setting of the game which kind of makes all the "rules-talk" a little less productive one might hope for.

But happily there are other things to read - and there might be things in between the lines of some of the "rule-talk" as well.

Indeed, and I don't want to say these words aloud, but I am quite happy that there was such a topic to discuss on the first Day, rather then the usual You-Know-What, which we discuss all the time on Day 1s otherwise. (And please, let's forget this immediately. At least one game without that! Make it a holiday!) It may not be productive per se, but then, what on Day 1 is.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

Basicly I thought Nogrod's question to Lommy was a bit unnecisary, as seemed clear to me that Lommy had remembered the part where Eomer said it would be an ordinary game and forgotten that he retracted that later on.

I then state that the only other possible explenation is in my view that Lommy was trying to misguide us. . . but I do not belive that is the case! (She would gain so little for that)

That's right, and eventually, the truth will come out by itself: sure she, even if she wanted, couldn't hope that none of the 15 of us would remember what Eomer said later. Speaking of this, now Rune seems quite nice here bringing this up - reasonable, only hopefully not bringing attention to Nogrod. Which I, however, dismiss.

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

If this is correct I suspect that the second pair are aware of their destiny and are cobbling. Lommie seems so cobblerish there has to be an explanation.

This is actually most interesting idea which I wouldn't have really thought of myself. Just how comes? It seems weird to me - for some reason, although logically it could make sense. As for cobblerish Lommy, well, at once I had similar feeling, however I would take it with great reservations - at least not until later on. Cobblerish feeling from Lommy does not seem to me now a good enough reason for suspecting her. Not yet.

Anyway... I am going to post my thoughts on everyone this far in the next post (summarised), though don't expect me to say much except for a few people (resp., don't expect me to say much about even those few people. But I have some general ideas, some outlined already in the text above).

[Mithalwen]

Personally I don't have a "later on" today. I don't like Lommie's post it is too self aware and knowing and has the clever-clever ring that makes me uneasy
Eomer said he was going for something different so maybe we have to think differently. I think this is a good thing since it can be easy to get complacent.

Also interesting is having a couple of unknown quantities ... fresh blood is always welcome though it is not the most felicitous phrase in this context.

[Kitanna]

Rune, I understand what you meant. Thanks for clarifying.

I am not sure, but did you notice that she accused practically everyone? (Well, you did.) And I don't think it was serious at all. Quite obviously. Or was it? But in the case it wasn't, what "decent fodder for later" it may be?

Lommy's list may mean absolutely nothing since it was obviously getting the ball rolling, but then again I see no reason to discount that it could come in handy later on in the game. Of course it could be forgotten later as nothing more than jargon from Day 1.

Who hasn't appeared yet? Kath, Diamond, Groin? And before long I'm going to have to vote.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right, a reaction to the few posts that happened to appear meanwhile (I hope not too many appear while I am posting this).

Samwise immediately fled high on my suspicion list.

First, he keeps being nice to people, while at the same time accusing-ish at the same time.
Second, vote for Brinniel is definitely "safe". I know he wasn't playing probably for a long time, so it may be a habit which used to be more common in his times, but still, these grounds for voting somebody are actually even more "safe" than Brinn's non-vote itself. Do you get what I mean?

Besides that, he mentions several times that "we should abandon the prophecy and focus on our main problem", right this is, but the way he keeps repeating it just asks for questioning it (hm, an interesting formulation). First I wanted to quote only his remark on me:

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

Legate: my inclination is to think that, whilst unwise, the 'thinking out loud' approach is fairly innocent. Although there's a lot of stuff to sieve through, I can say that I have been helped by some of his thoughts relating to the prophecy. However, the fact that he's dwelling so much on the prophecy makes me a little bit uncomfortable- I really think we should be getting down to the job we innocents have of rooting out the taint of evil in our midst.

With a mere comment of "I always ask people who say this, what would they post in my place which would be so wonderfully 'getting down to the job'". But then, when he mentioned this "let's get to the job" also further, and not just with me, I kind of started to think about it more - is he repeating that all over again out of honest concern, or because he "shields himself" this way? Somehow, it's harder to imagine for me that it is a honest concern.

(Besides that, what I quoted is a good example of what I said about being nice to people and yet accusing-ish at the same time: and he's like that with more or less everyone; a good wolfy attitude, to have open door for nice friendship with the person but at the same time have grounds prepared for sending that person to lynch if the general opinion turns against that person.)

This is also a nice example of something that alarms me:

Gwath: agrees with me in her second post, but has misunderstood what I said. I tend to think this probably makes her innocent, as it would seem to indicate a genuine will to solve the prophecy, rather than just stroke my ego.

Again, nice, yet... just, so easy to make "her" innocent

Kit: has her reservations about me, which is fine- so do I!- but seems keen to move us on from the prophecy. I agree on that point, and because I do and I know I'm an innocent I think she probably is too.

And this the same, the reasoning "we share opinons so we are in the same camp" is one of the fishiest I've ever seen. Although of course, it may be the view of a naive innocent... but for some reason, I don't think SW that naive. (Although I don't know anything about his experiences in WW, he made the impact on me that he already must have something behind himself. So why so naive?)

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Lommy's list may mean absolutely nothing since it was obviously getting the ball rolling, but then again I see no reason to discount that it could come in handy later on in the game. Of course it could be forgotten later as nothing more than jargon from Day 1.

Okay, I think I got that now and I think I understand you. In that case, it's a mere comment and no need to bother with it anymore. Okay. Dismissed.

EDIT: x-ed with two Miths

[Gollum the Great]

I'm feeling somewhat non-talkative, so I will merely post my concerns:

Legate: Fishy. During what time I have been here in the Downs, I got the impression he was one of those "all brain" guys and wrote long, very intelligent posts. His posts here have been long, but the content has taken a sort of rambling touch to them, and I wonder if it's safe to come near him.

Lommy: Weird posts and I don't trust her. Not exactly evading the issue, but acting queerly.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gollum the Great

Legate: Fishy. During what time I have been here in the Downs, I got the impression he was one of those "all brain" guys and wrote long, very intelligent posts. His posts here have been long, but the content has taken a sort of rambling touch to them, and I wonder if it's safe to come near him.

Just wait a few days, Gollum There was really nothing much specific to analyse yet on the first Day. (Well, besides the prophecy... )

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by SamGam

Brinniel: I don't like non-votiung on day one one little bit for the following reasons: it puts the innocents in the awkward position of not being able to see someone's thinking, and it also gives the evil deserters amongst us an option to cast the seeds of doubt. (That's in no way personal, Brin, it's just the way I see it as a player).

**Brinniel**

I just don't want her alive tomorrow and for us to spend a day thinking: 'Did the enemies leave her alive, or is she an enemy herself?' My approach, while brutal, is necessary: get rid of the doubt. And I am most suspicious of her, so I'm going to sleep fine!

I don't know how I feel about that vote. Though many have and will find Brinn's non-vote reason for doubt and anxiety, I'm wondering if SamGam wasn't too swift to take that route. Obviously he said he'd be gone the rest of the day and so he was left with little other choice but to vote then or not at all. Brinn wasn't the only one he suspected, but she managed his vote. And what proof does SamGam have the enemies will leave her alive? And also there were (and still are) a few who had yet to post and keeping them alive could be just as bad as keeping Brinn alive, non-talkers, no trails, all that fun to sort through. So why was Brinn's unproductiveness so much more important than anyone else's?

Originally Posted by Legate

Second, vote for Brinniel is definitely "safe".

But that vote is sure to raise eyebrows and SamGam must have known he'd be under scrutiny for such a rash choice.

Originally Posted by Gollum

Lommy: Weird posts and I don't trust her. Not exactly evading the issue, but acting queerly.

How so?

All in all SamGam jumps out, but I'm left wondering if it's just an irresponsible first day vote and he was out of time and needed someone, anyone to vote for. Or, as Legate pointed out, it was a safe vote because he figured no one else would vote for Brinn.

[Gwathagor]

Oh bother.

++ Kath

[Mithalwen]

So to develop:

Assuming there are a second pair of traitors, they are various options.

Preselected aware of destiny - may seem cobblerish or keep low profile since need to survive to day three to take effect.

Preselected unaware of destiny "cursed" - will seem as ordos til day three. Will then have to try not to noticeably change behaviour but acting natural is much harder than being natural...

Not preselected - less likely but not without precedent - in the wereducks game the first kill choice became a wolf but it was first thought to be a ranger save. Tricksy. Could be less obvious dependent on posting or voting order or random. Therefore pointless to waste much time on speculation. More something to consider should noone die in the night.

Really only option one is going to give clues at this stage.

There are of course no doubt other possibilties which haven't occured to me...

[Mithalwen]

*googles paradigm*

Oh.... *may have to vote legate for using words I don't understand and can't spell *

[Mithalwen]

++Lommie Just too odd and no more time

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Standing out:

Thinlómien - despite the fact of being completely silli at times, and her generally "playful" attitude (which could be, with Mith, called "cobblerish"), there is nothing truly suspicious on her. This far. Although I am a little wary - rather waiting how things turn out later, though.

Kitanna - not sure about her comment I questioned above, but that's rather a matter of question than anything to judge her innocence/wolvery (resp. wrong-wargery). Unless she made some slip and when questioned, she retreated.

Nogrod - looks like our "classic" Nogrod, which is good. Has some, albeit little biting remarks, hmm, maybe too unconflicting for Nogrod on Day 1. But this whole day is quite unusual, so... this far nothing special.

Mithalwen - except for her Lommy-cobbler theory (and her proposal of the Great Cobbler Paradigm in general), nothing special - however that's still quite good for Day 1. This far, seeming genuinely Mith-y to me.

Brinniel - being maybe "too nice", resp. "too un-conflicty", however this goes hand in hand with "too quiet because of RL". So I am not going to make any judgements here yet. Only a note, by "un-conflicty" I don't refer to her refusal to vote, but to her overall "un-conflicty" pose, where even though she discourages digging in the prophecy, she doesn't say anything much about anyone.

Rune Son of Bjarne - looks reasonable this far. Maybe somewhat more reasonable than usual, in the feeling I get from him, but for now, I have no reasons to suspect him.

Not standing out, because all they said concerned the prophecy and/or other neutral topics (like whether they are here or not):

Gwathagor
Shastanis Althreduin
SamwiseGamgee
Gollum The Great
Gaunt
fit more or less into the cathegory about whom I can't say neither A nor B. (Nor C, for that matter.)

Standing outside, because they are not here at all:

Kath
Diamond
Groin Redbeard

About these, I can't say even D.

EDIT: x-ed since my last post.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Ok, so in an ode to Thinlómien I have compiled a short list, with my comments and thoughts on play so far. Here's what I've got:

Legate: my inclination is to think that, whilst unwise, the 'thinking out loud' approach is fairly innocent. Although there's a lot of stuff to sieve through, I can say that I have been helped by some of his thoughts relating to the prophecy. However, the fact that he's dwelling so much on the prophecy makes me a little bit uncomfortable- I really think we should be getting down to the job we innocents have of rooting out the taint of evil in our midst.

Rune Son: in post 11 a mistake is aknowledged. I would never think like this normally, but WW being WW my mind is thinking: is that a genuine aknowledgement of a mistake or is it a clever ploy to fool us all into thinking you're genuine?

Brinniel: I don't like non-votiung on day one one little bit for the following reasons: it puts the innocents in the awkward position of not being able to see someone's thinking, and it also gives the evil deserters amongst us an option to cast the seeds of doubt. (That's in no way personal, Brin, it's just the way I see it as a player).

Lommy: was the first to throw suspicion around, but I don't actually find that suspicious in itself- gotta start somewhere, eh? I am slightly perturbed by the initial post, though. Such overanalysis may be clever tactics intended to throw Wargs with otherwise keen snouts off the scent by the medium of humour.

Shasta: I very nearly had no opinion after the initial post, but the last post from her made me think that we may have a very subtle and wily Warg-killer on our hands. Does suggesting a rotational system not, after all, decrease the possibility of we innocents seeing a trend in the wolves tactics as to who they kill? If so, then this seed, once planted, may be used to undermine an otherwise perfectly logical argument. I know that is very subtle, and a bit unlikely, but it's a possibility nonetheless.

Gwath: agrees with me in her second post, but has misunderstood what I said. I tend to think this probably makes her innocent, as it would seem to indicate a genuine will to solve the prophecy, rather than just stroke my ego.

Kit: has her reservations about me, which is fine- so do I!- but seems keen to move us on from the prophecy. I agree on that point, and because I do and I know I'm an innocent I think she probably is too.

Nogrod: I actuall didn't just mildly speculate, I stated what the gifteds clearly were (Legate had tried, bless him, but gotten carried away on Highway Tangent) and then put forward a new thought on the despicable Warg-killers. Odd that I was worried I'd be picked up for an early post with too much content and then the exact opposite happens. That, dear Nogrod, worries me.

Mith: nothing substantial, but there. Not overly happy with that.

Gaunt: puts forward a reasonable theory, but again doesn't actually get us any closer toward the meat of starting to identify who we're to do away with this evening.

So, there it is. Not much to go on, but it's what I've got. I do honestly think that we need to move on from the prophecy. Eomer is a tricksy one, and he's quite probably taking perverse delight from beyond the grave at watching us struggle to answer something which we actually have no control over. It's been said before and I'll say it again: we have two enemies to deal with now, of this we're sure, so let's just concentrate on them.

Anyway, in another shocker I know I'm not going to get back online tonight, and so I'm going to vote.

**Brinniel**

I just don't want her alive tomorrow and for us to spend a day thinking: 'Did the enemies leave her alive, or is she an enemy herself?' My approach, while brutal, is necessary: get rid of the doubt. And I am most suspicious of her, so I'm going to sleep fine!

P.S.~ Sorry if I refferred to you as a he and you're a she or vice versa, but I should remind you that we Wargs transcend the confines of mere gender!