Tol-in-Gaurhoth LI: The Pain of Wargs

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gaunt

What is also interesting is that Rune had suspicions towards Thinlomien.

The day he suspected (and voted) me on, he said this:

Originally Posted by Rune

I could imagine Legate and Lommy being candidates and even though I will not write them off my list completely (of lynch candidates) I am not too thrilled about voting for either today.

It doesn't look like a dream-based suspicion, does it?

Originally Posted by Gaunt

Gwath: My suspicion is rapidly fading - given my drastically erroneous case made against Gollum and Gwath yesterday, it would have made sense for Gwath, if he was a wolf, to have lynched me or Thinlomien, who were making the strongest cases against him.

I kind of agree with this - or some of this at least - Gollum was the obvious choice yesterDay, yet we got wrong. Gwath would kind of seem the obvious choice toDay - so that's why I feel a bit bad about it. I'm not sure about who he would have killed, though. Often in ww games general moods change quickly, so it would possibly not have been necessary for him to kill you or me. Also, that would have put the spotlight on him - which is something he would not want now if he's a wolf. (But of course, he could have double-bluffed with that... it's an endless circle.)

I think it would have made sense for pretty much anyone to kill Mith - she was practically suspected by nobody, so the wolves were removing someone who wouldn't probably get lynched toDay.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Gwath would kind of seem the obvious choice toDay - so that's why I feel a bit bad about it.

This is assuming a lot. Why am I the obvious choice now?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

This is assuming a lot. Why am I the obvious choice now?

Simply, because you strike me as the most suspicious. Or okay, if you want a better and more thoughtful answer, I don't know what to think right now, but of those who are now alive, I suspected you the most yesterDay. Pretty much everyone suspected you more or less yesterDay. That's why I call you "the obvious choice". Makes sense?

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Simply, because you strike me as the most suspicious. Or okay, if you want a better and more thoughtful answer, I don't know what to think right now, but of those who are now alive, I suspected you the most yesterDay. Pretty much everyone suspected you more or less yesterDay. That's why I call you "the obvious choice". Makes sense?

Hell no.

Ok, maybe.

I'm going to check your facts later...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I'm going to check your facts later...

Feel free to. I too would be interested to know if they're right...

Seriously though, I think I'm going to look through all the posts of Gwath, Gaunt and Di and maybe even write an analysis or summary out of them. We'd better not make a hasty choice toDay...

[Thinlómien]

Ok, Mr Swordsman of Shadows (or whatever is the proper translation), you have the honour of being the first one since you're around and talking with me.

Gwathalysis

Day1
#15 nothing of interest
#16 speculates about the rules - I don't quite get his point (a good start for an analysis, isn't it ), but he agrees with Sam and thinks there might come two traitors every Night in the first three Nights
#30 says to Kit he wasn't merely restating stuff
#73 expresses confusion over deadline
#86 votes Kath (no reasoning)

Day2
#93 summarises Day1 voting, doubts that Nog is a traitor (unless he was saving a fellow Brinn)
#96 explains his schedules (and kind of explains his vote too)
#117 suspects me for being giddy, wonders how probable it is that there's a newbie wolf
#119 greets newly arrived Diamond, asks where's Gaunt
#136 expresses his presence
#139 points out my words could be a sneaky werewolf tactic, wonders if Groin is trying to use reverse psychology considering himself and Gollum
#141 agrees (rather shockedly) with Nogrod that Groin has been talking almost solely about Nog during the Day
#178 expresses his presence
#186 votes Groin, reason: he dropped his suspicion of Nog as soon as it was questioned by others

Day3
#207 explains his schedules for the Day
#219 apologises for lack of time, votes Rune because his echoing of Legate's unfounded suspicion of Brinn is suspicious

Day4
#260 suspects he must look rather suspicious now, speculates about the number of wws remaining but thinks it's best to concentrate on just finding and lynching one at a time, says he's sick of lynching obvious people, says he may go after the quiet&unobtrusive like Di or Golly
#271 replies to me concerning Melkor's alignment
#272 says he thinks I'm right about Melkor being on the Wargs' side and that if Legate went after Gollum, he (G) is probably innocent
#281 asks for clarification for Gaunt's use of the word "warg"
#284 says his day1 vote for Kath was random, reconsiders voting Gollum based on all the Gollum-Legate stuff
#300 doesn't like Gaunt's self-assurance, says he's going to watch him the next Day, voted Gollum because he has become the default vote of the Day, doesn't even suspect him that much

Overall
Mostly, he actually gives me the imprssion of an ordinary villager. BUT there are a few note-worthy things. He does abnormally lot of "hi I'm here" posts and schedule explanations - he seems a little nervous. And furthermore, I don't like his vote yesterDay. It was too easy - he himself admits it, he doesn't bother to vote properly, but goes with the "default vote". Not very productive and somewhat suspicious. Also, he seems to have been navigating in the tides of this village almost too smoothly, which always makes me raise my eyebrows.

Well, we'll see how he stands compared to Gaunt and Di... (I will also examine the connections once I've analysed&summarised all the posts. I'm not sure how much I will get done now, though, it's getting late so I'm going to sleep at some phase...)

[Thinlómien]

Ok, I'm doing Di next... this should be a short one.

Day1
- didn't appear at all -

Day2
#118 pops in and explains absence
#142 explains and apologises for being busy
#160 votes Brinn, gives no reasoning

Day3
#200 jokingly suggests that quiet people murdered Nogrod, says Nog was an odd kill choice and thus possibly suspected of seerdom
#201 explains her schedules
#204 suggests that a lover couple consisting of me and Legate murdered Nogrod, it is a bit unclear whether she was serious or joking
#206 votes Legate, gives no grounds

Day4
#257 doesn't understand Brinn-Legate thing, suspects this village will fall into silence, says reading Rune's posts is in order
#270 understands my frustration, speaks about being time-limited, says it's silly only loud players get lynched, is leaning towards Gwath or Gollum, mentions Gaunt too
#285 says it's good to hear from Gaunt, votes Gollum (gives no specified reasoning)

Overall
I'm afraid there's not much to say. Her tone and playfulness seem innocentish, but I don't definitely like her habit of not giving reasons for her votes. It seems slippery and even quite wolvish. Could we please have explanations now? But all in all, there's really not much to say about Di - it could be either way. In order to evaluate her wolvishness better, I have to analyse Gaunt too and then investigate the Gwath-Di-Gaunt interaction triangle. This gal just gives too little to go on.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Ok, Mr Swordsman of Shadows (or whatever is the proper translation),

[...]

**#300 doesn't like Gaunt's self-assurance, says he's going to watch him the next Day, voted Gollum because he has become the default vote of the Day, doesn't even suspect him that much

I translate it "Shadowblade." I don't know if that's right.

I only take issue with the ** part of your analysis. First, I said that I did suspect Gollum. Second, the overall interpretation of that post should be that even though I felt less than satisfied with voting against Gollum, hewas nonetheless the only player that I had any real grounds for suspecting, weak though they might be. I had given even less thought to the other players. Lastly, my comment regarding the village's defaulting to a Gollum-vote was written in cynicism.