Werewolf LIII: The Republic

[the phantom]

Oh, and fyi, I met Sally in person a few hours ago.

She ordered her hamburger cooked extremely rare, and when I told a joke she howled with laughter.

Beware!

[Ilya]

Sounds like she put you in a bit of a furry situation, phantom.

Why yes, I have a paper to write. Why do you ask?

[the phantom]

I'd love to read through Ganzy's posts and such, but it will have to wait until tomorrow afternoon. Now I must sleep.

[mormegil]

Okay, I'm not quite caught up, I just got home not too long ago. I'll tell you though this chattiness between Boro/phantom and others is bothering me a bit. It makes me wonder what they are up too. It just seems odd and it's annoying because it really clutters up the thread and the more important issues. I am going to bed and hopefully will have some time tomorrow to catch up...it depends on how busy work is.

[Brinniel]

I've decided to attempt a monstrous task and analyse Aganzir's death:

Day 1

Aganzir's comments on players:

++Brinniel for rep

Because I agree with her that the less reps there are, the more room for errors, and because she's a player who is generally trustworthy although I always find her so suspicious, and because she probably won't be the centre of attention.

I don't like it how Lommy seems to exaggerate things that seem rather small to me.

Lommy. I know I tend to suspect her, especially on the first days. And to me she almost always seems overreactive and suspicious. But it happening always is not an excuse for me to put her in the Neither cathegory so she's happily here again.

Shasta. Don't really understand where that phantom-Boro-Legate triangle came from. It reminds me a bit of Nerwolf's "their interaction makes me think there might be a wolf involved" in some game ages ago.

phantom. He doesn't give any bad vibes although I am perfectly aware that he could appear innocent even if a wolf. For the sake of my sanity I'm not going to concentrate on him for now, I am sure others will do it more than enough anyway.

Brinn. I agree with her that there shouldn't be very few reps. I'm feeling pretty good about her now that I saw her response to my question why she voted me.

Boro amuses me a lot. He looks innocent and I find myself agreeing with him on several things, but it was the same last time I played with him, and he was a wolf. I'm wary of him based on those past experiences, but I find him more innocent than not for the time being.

Nog. I won't concentrate on him now, either. Although he has posted a lot, I have hard time trying to get a read on him.

Greenie. It's always difficult for me to form an opinion on her. Somehow I'm a bit uneasy as to why she followed me so quickly on voting Brinn for a rep. Not that it was necessarily suspicious, it just seemed too easy.

Nerwen. If it was anyone but Nerwen, I could say I was a bit more inclined to consider her innocent.

The result is that I suspect Lommy and it annoys me because I feel I suspect her just because of the way she is. I also find myself unable to compare this Lommy to any Lommy I know from the previous games. However I wouldn't probably suspect her half as much if not for those carefully self-consciously careless trying-to-say-nothing-or-at-least-sound-normal answers. They vaguely remind me of the pathetic Dueling Wizards wolf me who was trying to avoid suspicion and accusations when they kept piling on me.

I don't know what to do with Lommy.

I didn't find the Gil-Shasta quarrel suspicious. I think that's the way Shasta usually is, which doesn't indicate anything, while Gil looked pretty innocentish.

++Lynch Legate

Because I couldn't decide between him and Eönwë and his way of posting annoys me more. This means that Eönwë has just been saved from receiving two votes and he could thank me by posting a detailed list of his suspicions tomorrow.

What players commented about Aganzir:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Agan - Looks more innocent than not, even if there was not much in her two posts. She's one I wouldn't like to see go this early anyway as I know she can be an asset to the village when having more time and losing one of those on Day1 is always sad.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Though I could also consider Aganzir who also makes wise choices, at least when she's innocent. I usually can get a good read off of her though this time not so much since she's only posted twice (what's up with that?). But voting her as rep would be one way to get a better read of her.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I should probably vote now, just on the off chance that rehearsal runs long. So without further ado...

++ Aganzir for Representative

Originally Posted by Sally

Agan: always a wolf. Always.

Originally Posted by Sally

My original rep choice was going to be Noggie, followed by Phantom, Agan, and Legate in no particular order.

Originally Posted by Boromir

Agan seems pretty genuine in her first post. I would like to go with her as my rep, but have some questions as far as her involvement in the next 24-hour period. Hmm...doubt she'll be back before this 1st period ends.

Originally Posted by Brinn

++Aganzir for rep

Because unlike Shasta, she has one vote and I continue to think we'd be better off with more reps than less.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Then, another thoght... voting someone as a rep is surely a great way of buddying up fellow villagers. That's why the Agan-Brinn and Legate-phantom "alliances" make me wonder... I mean, of course it's just natural too to reward trust with trust and one is subconsciously inclined to trust someone that trusts them and blah blah blah, but such vote exchanges are curious. I'm not sure what to think about them.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Aganzir - pretty silent, but RL hurries are RL hurries. She seemed to be rather tense, but she herself said she was not having a good day... so I won't judge anything either way yet. I'm looking forward to see what she's going to do as a rep...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Aganzir for Brinniel. I'd agree with her that Brinn seems sensible, but what does she mean by saying she's "usually trustworthy"?

Originally Posted by Boromir

Agan is calling on her true form, that's good to see, but I will go back and look at this Lommy-Agan back-and-forth, or whatever you want to call it.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Agan - Her case on Lommy seems somewhat fabricatied. Though I agree with her that Lommy was exaggerating when talking about our trust in Brinn, I'm not convinced that it's a good reason for suspicion. Neither do I see anything suspicious in Lommy's filibuster post. Her first post toDay looked innocentish, but the whole Lommy-thing makes me wonder.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Honestly, Aganzir's suspicions strike me as rather forced. I think she's merely trying to grasp any kind of behaviour she can call suspicious and make a horrible mess out of it. And she claims I'm exaggerating. How rude. Simply put, I don't think her behaviour looks like hunting wolves, it looks like hunting supicious behaviour. I cannot phrase it so that it makes any more sense, but I hope at least someone can understand that.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Aganzir - No alarms, I'm glad to see she's here today.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The row between Aganzir and Lommy. Argumentwise I'd say Agan looks the more innocent one, feelingwise I think Lommy looks the more innocent (she felt genuinely frustrated - although a wolf might feel the frustration as well to be sure). So I just can't avoid the idea that it's two innocents tearing each other apart.

Originally Posted by tp

Aganzir... she's either playing well as a WW or she's innocent. So I'd like to give her a pass for today.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Aganzir - argues innocentishly

Originally Posted by Boromir

Agan, you made a case against Lommy. Have the spine to admit it. You listed Lommy as guilty and have gone after her, that's a case. Don't try to play it off like you really didn't mean anything by quoting Lommy repeatedly, post after post, and play it off like Lommy is being over-defensive.

And now you're backing off, after a couple people say Lommy is looking genuinely frustrated (i.e. makes her look innocent)? Trying to seperate yourself from someone you wanted to get lynched?

Originally Posted by Rune

You are right that Aganzir posted plenty, infact she posted so much that it could seem like unauthorized filibustering.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Aganzir: Nothing about her rings any alarms. Is it just me or does seem she and Lommy always fight in WW games together? Anyway, whatever's between them, I think it's ordo-on-ordo.

Day 2

Aganzir's comments about players:

In my opinion Lommy's frustration looked more innocent than wolfish. Maybe I underestimate her but I believe she would have got rather jumpier if she's a wolf.

Of these Ilya's reaction seems the most suspicious to me.

If Lommy's a wolf, I could see Boro's reaction as wolfish as well since he attacked me for attacking Lommy. On the other hand it's also possible that he just wanted to try me so as to see if I broke under the pressure. But I have a bit hard time trying to see his reaction as honest - it looked like he was up to something.

My suspicion list is now as follows (in no particular order):
Ilya
Eönwë
Greenie
Lommy (not that I'm actively suspecting her, I just want to keep an eye on her)
Nog (keeping an eye on him until I have time to go through his posts)
Nerwen (I agree with morm's latest about her - planning to go through her posts when I have time anyway)

++Boro for rep

I really have no time to think about it more now and I trust him.

I can agree with Lommy that Ilya has looked much more innocent today. However I have no idea if that is because her fellows have had a chance to give her advice in the night or if she's just got more used to the game. Her defense and the reasons she gave for the things she did look pretty genuine though, and she kept her cool pretty well even when accused.

I think Nerwen doesn't look very suspicious apart from her reaction to morm, which could be that of an innocent as well. So I'm pretty much at a loss now, because at the same time I know she's capable of all sorts of nasty things and I just wouldn't want to stop suspecting her like this, just to be on the safe side.

I didn't really care if Brinn is innocent or not, although I do feel quite good about her right now. And if she's a wolf, her behaviour and interaction with others will hopefully reveal something after her death, so it doesn't even matter that much if a wolf got to be a rep on day 1.

I am feeling better also about Eönwë now, and there's yet another person I'm unlikely to vote today. He's a bit weird at times, but mostly he comes across as pretty genuine.

Guilty
Nerwen. Okay, her speculation about Cab's death and reaction to Ilya & Brinn's reactions is suspicious, plus her fierce defense of herself.
Nog. Still want to read his posts at some point.

Innocent
Boro. I am worried about my trust in him because he has completely fooled me before but I agree with him quite a lot, so he's here for now.
Brinn
Gil
Lommy
Kath
Rune
Shasta
phantom

Neither
Eönwë. Could go either way. Now it's rather indecisiveness on my part than lack of information.
Greenie. I'm planning to review her posts as well at some point.
Gwath
Ilya. I'm really undecided about her right now.
morm. He looks quite innocent. When I was reading through day 1 during the night after it, an inexplicable thought "morm's a wolf" just suddenly occurred to me. I agree with him on a lot things he says. I'm worried I seem to trust him so much. So frankly, I have no idea.
sally
Ka, another one I should review.

++ lynch Nerwen

Players' comments on Aganzir:

Originally Posted by morm

As for my possible reps today those who I trust and have shown enough dedication are:
Agan
Boro
Brinn
Nog

Originally Posted by tp

Aganzir- I thought her Rep vote was straightforward. Her accusations have good reasoning, and her attack on Lommy was understandable (in my reread, early Lommy looked guilty to me too). And then Agan backed off her (exactly the way I found Lommy less guilty later).

Originally Posted by tp

And good to see Agan. Speak your mind, dearie, for today I trust you.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Aganzir - her case against me was weak and I dislike her flip-flopping on Legate. However, now that I'm not annoyed anymore, my gut-feeling of her would be rather innocent.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Aganzir - She no longer gives me innocent vibes so she belongs in this category. I don't know why, maybe it's because she seems more tense and more stressed than usual.

Originally Posted by morm

I will continue to be around on and off for the rest of the day (RL), I should be around most of tomorrow (RL) but perhaps a bit more intermitent. Anyway I am going to vote for Aganzir as my Rep because a lot of her suspects are those who I suspect, namely Nerwen being the top. I would like my rep to vote the way I feel and since I have a greater degree of trust in Agan than many others it's a satisfactory match for my vote.

++Aganzir for Rep

Originally Posted by Rune

Aganzir: Tells Little Green to“Elaborate on more tense and more stressed than usual.” I actually think this is an unfair question, LG was not making a massive case against Aganzir. . . She was giving an overview about how she felt about the different people and in such a case you judge also on the feel that you get from the post, something that is often in describable. Now if LG had attacked Aganzir and was confident that she was a wolf, then she would have to elaborate.
Anyways this seems to be Aganzir’s style and I must say it annoys me a great deal.

Originally Posted by Ilya

Aganzir - I still have this gut thing against Agan, although at the time I think her posts were running together with Legate in my head, and the thing with Lommy seems more harmless than not. However, I do not like the implication she made about a rep not voting and irresponsibility today (521). These aren't sacred offices or anything but reps do have an obligation. As to throwaway votes, it's not a bad way for a shy wolf to act - everything's all tied up, so I'm just gonna go Nader. Or, you know, the phantom and his brand of jokery. I guess, in short, voting is important, and anyone who says otherwise bothers me.

Originally Posted by Boromir

++Aganzir for rep

Originally Posted by tp

I have less of an idea about where she stands, so I'd feel safer going with Agan (as far as her lynching someone I'd like lynched), but if you're leaning towards making Agan a Rep already yourself then I'd like to give Kath a shot and see what she does. At the least I do feel that she is innocent.

Originally Posted by Rune

Aganzir: Her way of tracking wolves and posting annoys me. Also I have trouble telling apart what is just “normal” Aganzir and what is suspicious, so I would also like her to go simply to make my life easier. Also I don’t get why it is much more suspicious to say you’re a newbie in subtle way, than doing it straight forward. (ok Boromir just explained it, I don’t know what to make of it)

Originally Posted by Kath

Agan - she is very, very determined this game. Thing is I do play with Agan a fair amount and yet she always seems slightly separate somehow. I don't have any understanding of her usual style of play. Is this ... well, almost persecution of a person like with Lommy normal with her?

Originally Posted by Shasta

Lommy and Aganzir also feel good.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Aganzir is as vibrant as ever.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, I don't think I'm being biased... Aganzir is being very erratic, and doesn't seem to feel the need to explain. I don't know what it means, since it seems too clumsy for an Aganwolf... but it's not something I can ignore either.

Originally Posted by Boromir

Anyway, my thoughts, are Agan's harmless. Unless you're a wolf, because she's a pretty intense investigator and interrogator.

Edit: P.S. Oh great, I probably just signed Agan's death warrant now. Sorry my lady.

---------------------------

Ouch. All those quotes can hurt your head after awhile.

Thoughts:

It seems yesterDay Aganzir was suspected by half and considered innocent by another half, and several others placed her somewhere in between. She's obviously not a no-trace kill since she left plenty of posts with substance.

I think suspected seerism is likely. Perhaps the wolves thought she was a seer who dreamt of Lommy on Night 2. After all, on Day 1 she at first suspects Lommy then says she'd like to keep an eye on her. And the next Day she suddenly finds her innocent. Or it's possible she was killed to set someone up. Though I think the former is more likely. Which means I think Lommy's probably innocent.

[Nerwen]

Thanks, Brin.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Thoughts:

It seems yesterDay Aganzir was suspected by half and considered innocent by another half, and several others placed her somewhere in between. She's obviously not a no-trace kill since she left plenty of posts with substance.

I think suspected seerism is likely. Perhaps the wolves thought she was a seer who dreamt of Lommy on Night 2. After all, on Day 1 she at first suspects Lommy then says she'd like to keep an eye on her. And the next Day she suddenly finds her innocent. Or it's possible she was killed to set someone up. Though I think the former is more likely.

Or both; I rather think the wolves are multi-tasking. I expected to find Agan dead toDay, and I hadn't even seen the significance of her switch on Lommy. You're probably right about the Seer-hint, though.

EDIT: fixed quotes.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Ilya

Wherein you do a triplebluff where we all expect that you know that we know that you knew Agan was a formidible anti-wolf force, so you know you that someone would call you on it so you know to say that that's obviously what the wolves know, even though you know that's what we know.

Honestly, this is what y'all sound like sometimes.

I definitely know the feeling.

It seems now is the time of Day when only me and Nerwen are around... I've read everything quickly through, but have to digest a bit - I've read, what, three and a half pages today and feel a bit baffled still.

If I had the time I'd love to have a good look on the Eönwë lynch. I'll be off soon, but will be back probably in several hours, and will most definitely have a list by then. I had some comments about yesterDay but forgot them. Gosh, I must seem horribly confused.

Overall impressions:
- I'm glad to have seen more of Sally. She seems innocentish this far.
- Agan's kill can lead to a myriad directions, I'd love to have a better look at it too. (It seems I already have loads of stuff I'd like to have a look at...)
- I'm torn about Nerwen. The problem isn't the classic no read -problem, but a problem of having both innocent and suspicious vibes about her. She's a one I'll definitely have a look at if I have the time. (See? SEE?)
- I don't trust Ilya. I don't right know where I got that assumption from. Suppose I have to look at it ()...

Like I said, I'll be back in some hours, hopefully with more substance. I have no time to start doing anything real, so this crappy post is all you'll get of me for now. More coming in time. And that's a promise.

[satansaloser2005]

My first attempt at a proper multi-quote, so if I don't reply to all the bits my apologies. I'll put them in another post as I notice my oversight. heh.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Ah, so it turned out Eonwe did have a special role! He was the village Steve. But then he was dropping Steve hints all over the place, so we should've guessed.

Hee hee! Village Steve, poor guy. You sons of a mothers killed the poor kid before I could make the obligatory Blue's Clues jokes. How dare you!

Originally Posted by phantom

But on the bright side I wasn't killed. So guess what? You all get one more day of Phantom!

Could I request modfire?

Originally Posted by phantom

I don't see any way I survive another Night phase. For surely the WWs have realized by now that I am, indeed, the Dread Pirate Roberts.

You are not the real Dread Pirate Roberts. The real Roberts has been retired for fifteen years, and living like a king in Patagonia.

This is enough proof for me. Phantom is TOTALLY a wolf.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, that was predictable.

Really? Well, if it was predictable, I say you didn't predict it at all! This was all a setup! Conspiracy! Conspiracy! [/crazy flailing]

Anyway, yes Agan's death wasn't that much of a surprise, but I didn't particularly think she was seer so I almost expected the wolves to gamble after that quarry rather than our little finished -erm, Finnish- friend.

Originally Posted by Ilya

As long as you're not a rabbit, Phantom. Then you'd just be silly.

Man, my apologies to Agan. Totally thought she was of the lupine persuasion. All those nerve endings in my gut (did you know you have more nerve endings in your gut than you have in your head?) must be having indigestion. This blows everything I had out of the water. Not that I had much, but, you know, stupid wolves not being who I think they are. Why was it predictable, Nerwen?

It's okay, love. You're new (at least to playing with this fine group) so don't feel bad about being off about things. And just because you were wrong about Agan doesn't mean you weren't right in other areas. You're doing great, Ilya. No worries.

Originally Posted by the phantom

How selfish of you. Assuming that the entire kill was based on lynching you! How arrogant. How self centered!

The plan was obviously to set up me to be lynched.

Obviously....*more eyerolling*

Originally Posted by the phantom

Hey, now, some of us are just now finding out the kill, and are still in shock. Not all of us knew several hours ago like you did, so just keep your snide comments to yourself.

Heh. Actually that's along the lines of what I was thinking. Minus the "snide comments" line, but hey. Not all of us can be that rude....erm, special.

Originally Posted by Ilya

No need to take that tone, tp. I could say it's arrogant of you and Boro to assume the kill was about getting one of you lynched. I don't get how that would work. Both of y'all trusted Agan. I don't know what case a wolf could reasonably stir up. It'd be much easier to drive me to the gallows, since I've continually said I suspected Agan. That said, Nerwen, you're being odd and it's weirding me out.

Chillax, Ilya. Like the rest of the players, you just have to get used to our ever-irritating Phantom over here. He's kidding a good 3/4 of the time, and even when he's not he's completely clueless anyway.

Originally Posted by Ilya

If only, if only.


Wherein you do a triplebluff where we all expect that you know that we know that you knew Agan was a formidible anti-wolf force, so you know you that someone would call you on it so you know to say that that's obviously what the wolves know, even though you know that's what we know.

Honestly, this is what y'all sound like sometimes.

Heh. Yeah, I have the same feeling occasionally. By the way, that 'theory' of yours was hilarious.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Simple. Agan's death both eliminates a strong player and potentially frames multiple people.

Thanks for explaining your kill to us, Nerwen. I figured it was just because so many people (okay, me and the Hardy Boys over there *points to Boro and Phantom, who are lining up little toy soldiers around a Barbie Dream House*) thought she was innocent.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Oh, and fyi, I met Sally in person a few hours ago.

She ordered her hamburger cooked extremely rare, and when I told a joke she howled with laughter.

Beware!

Oi! You best beware, 'little boy', or that post will come back to bite you!

Originally Posted by Ilya

Sounds like she put you in a bit of a furry situation, phantom.

Why yes, I have a paper to write. Why do you ask?

Tehe. I love humor. *giggles, then posts this and goes to catch up again*


EDIT: x'd since the Ilya post I quoted at the end of mine.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Thanks for explaining your kill to us, Nerwen. I figured it was just because so many people (okay, me and the Hardy Boys over there *points to Boro and Phantom, who are lining up little toy soldiers around a Barbie Dream House*) thought she was innocent.

So that's why you did it, wolfisaloser2005? *slaps forehead* Trust me to get over-complicated.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Phantom

Because that's sort of why I declared her innocent and said what I did about her. I thought for sure she was not a WW, and not the Seer, but an Ordo that was likely to be a lynching distraction to other Ordos, and therefore thought it best that she die during the Night. So I did what I could to make her look like an attractive target.

That does it. Since, as far as I know, this game isn't innocent vs. innocent, there's no way you can be innocent. I don't believe this.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

That does it. Since, as far as I know, this game isn't innocent vs. innocent, there's no way you can be innocent. I don't believe this.

But there is a logic to it, Shasta.

What I am on the fence about myself is whether or not it's just a cover-story (i.e. one that allows the wolves to lynch the people most dangerous to them and blame the deaths on framing-attempts.)

EDIT: x'd with Brinniel.

[satansaloser2005]

To follow on from what Boro said, the McCaber kill tells us a lot about the wolves, although Cabbie himself said very little.


Why get rid of Cabbie when he's (as of yet) not posing a threat to you? There's no ranger in your way, why not go for a loud, very experienced player (which isn't to say that Cabbie is a newbie, because he's not) and get one of the big threats out of the way.

For instance, the way I play. (Like I should be telling you all this, but I'm trying to prove a point.)


When I'm seer, my first night dream is ALWAYS someone I know I can rely on to make a lot of trouble. Well, not so much trouble as noise I suppose. That way I already know where they're coming from and can gauge other's reactions from theirs. Either that or someone I thoroughly enjoy playing with, and then I pretty much hope they're innocent so I don't have to kill them. (For instance, the game where I was a seer on here my first dream was Nog.)

When I'm a wolf, and there's a ranger, my first night kill is either a person whom I see as a threat just because of who they are, a person whom I don't like playing with as much as the others (don't take offense at that, any of my/our past kills from other games. I rarely use that as a kill pick method) or for who I think the seer might be (if it doesn't seem too obvious, as in they're leaving fairly big seer hints and I think they'll be protected). Granted, last game I didn't follow that pattern, but if I recall properly Gollum really wanted Legate dead. Moving on....if there's no ranger I go for the seer the first night. Period.



Can I use old games as evidence? I really don't think so, but my argument will make more sense if I mention this. One game I was an ordo and Nerwen was a wolf (I can't remember who her packmates were and it's pretty much irrelevant). I died the first night. That's right, Sally died the first night. Random kill much, children? (Also, you don't kill Sally the first night. You just don't. You keep me around to lynch, dang it! )

Sorry, I digress again. Anyway, I believe it was early in the second Day that Nerwen mentioned something about the ranger. There is no ranger in this game. Now she may have been kidding around, but my theory?

You don't kill someone like Cabbie the first night unless you're playing a risky game. You go for the seer unless there's a ranger, and even then you try. So if you think there's a ranger and you're the kind of player who likes to kill off semi-random people, who would you go for? Someone like Cabbie. And who would do that? Someone like Nerwen.

I just woke up. Does this make any sense?


EDIT: x'd with some little green girl.