Werewolf LIII: The Republic - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Kath · 12-05-2008, 05:01 PM

I'm getting very tired and very confused - please explain?

Thinlómien · 12-05-2008, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kath

I'm getting very tired and very confused - please explain?

If we double lynch, today is the final Day. So then we'd better get it right. And if we want to get it right, we don't lynch Gil.

If we just single lynch today, toMorrow is the final Day and Gil's death has simply bought us time and removed one more option from our lynch list.

Btw, assuming that we two and Gil are innocent, we have a 66% chance of getting it right if we double-lynch two of the others. Tempting, isn't it? But then again, if we get it wrong...

Kath · 12-05-2008, 05:11 PM

Random calculations here ... because I'm not sure you're right.

Alive:
Kath
Lommy
Nerwen
Greenie
Brinn
Gil

Gil and Nerwen die lynched.

Lommy dies by kill.

Alive next Day:
Kath
Greenie
Brinn

So wouldn't we still have toMorrow as well?

Thinlómien · 12-05-2008, 05:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kath

Alive next Day:
Kath
Greenie
Brinn
So wouldn't we still have toMorrow as well?

Yes, but the problem is that the wolf can abstain from voting for a rep and thus no (innocent) reps can be elected (because one needs two votes to become a rep and one may not vote herself) and thus no one will get lynched and then the wolf will win after the following Night.

Kath · 12-05-2008, 05:25 PM

Oh I see! That makes sense.

Hmm so:

Alive:
Kath
Lommy
Nerwen
Brinn
Gil
Greenie

Lynch Gil.

Lommy dies by kill.

Alive:
Kath
Nerwen
Brinn
Greenie

Well I guess it makes sense. Enough people toMorrow to make it a worthwhile Day. It's going to be scary though - it almost makes me want to be killed toNight and leave it to the rest of you to freak out all through the last Day! I had enough of that last game.

Thinlómien · 12-05-2008, 05:28 PM

So you think we should lynch Gil?

Fine by me...

...but unless something new and important appears, I think Nerwen should really be lynched toMorrow.

Kath · 12-05-2008, 05:35 PM

Gil looks like a good option right now.

I'm not convinced about Nerwen ... but then I'm not convinced about anyone. Something that Greenie said earlier, when she was very against lynching Gil, brought her up on my suspicion list while Brinn went down it. I mean there are times where you look pretty suspicious as well Lommy, especially with your 'evidence' earlier on.

We're actually quite lucky in that we have to vote for Reps before we vote for a lynch on the final Day because we will have at least one innocent as a Rep with a say in things. That doesn't necessarily mean the say is going to be the right say but it gives us a fighting chance!

Anyway, voting time? I love how we clearly don't trust each other - we're both waiting for the other to vote first.

Thinlómien · 12-05-2008, 05:16 PM

Noogles is kind of pressuring me to get done with ww so that he can send his audio clips to Brinn...

So, Kath, what shall we do? Shall we lynch Gil as was planned? Or shall we gamble and go for a risky double-lynch? If we do that (I'm not sure if it's wise) I insist we lynch Nerwen at least.

The profit of the double-lynch is that we get to remove two unknowns while toMorrow we only get to remove one. One other player will be removed by then, yes, but it's most probably me whom no one suspects, so it won't really probably remove a lynch option in anyone's mind.

The profit of lynching Gil is that we still have more time and our lynch toMorrow will probably be better thought of than any ex tempore double lynch right now.

Still, I'm tempted... Aieee.

edit: xed with Kath

12-05-2008, 05:01 PM	#1
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	I'm getting very tired and very confused - please explain? __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

12-05-2008, 05:11 PM	#3
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	Random calculations here ... because I'm not sure you're right. Alive: Kath Lommy Nerwen Greenie Brinn Gil Gil and Nerwen die lynched. Lommy dies by kill. Alive next Day: Kath Greenie Brinn So wouldn't we still have toMorrow as well? __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

12-05-2008, 05:25 PM	#5
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	Oh I see! That makes sense. Hmm so: Alive: Kath Lommy Nerwen Brinn Gil Greenie Lynch Gil. Lommy dies by kill. Alive: Kath Nerwen Brinn Greenie Well I guess it makes sense. Enough people toMorrow to make it a worthwhile Day. It's going to be scary though - it almost makes me want to be killed toNight and leave it to the rest of you to freak out all through the last Day! I had enough of that last game. __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

12-05-2008, 05:28 PM	#6
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	So you think we should lynch Gil? Fine by me... ...but unless something new and important appears, I think Nerwen should really be lynched toMorrow. __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

12-05-2008, 05:35 PM	#7
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	Gil looks like a good option right now. I'm not convinced about Nerwen ... but then I'm not convinced about anyone. Something that Greenie said earlier, when she was very against lynching Gil, brought her up on my suspicion list while Brinn went down it. I mean there are times where you look pretty suspicious as well Lommy, especially with your 'evidence' earlier on. We're actually quite lucky in that we have to vote for Reps before we vote for a lynch on the final Day because we will have at least one innocent as a Rep with a say in things. That doesn't necessarily mean the say is going to be the right say but it gives us a fighting chance! Anyway, voting time? I love how we clearly don't trust each other - we're both waiting for the other to vote first. __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

12-05-2008, 05:16 PM	#8
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	Noogles is kind of pressuring me to get done with ww so that he can send his audio clips to Brinn... So, Kath, what shall we do? Shall we lynch Gil as was planned? Or shall we gamble and go for a risky double-lynch? If we do that (I'm not sure if it's wise) I insist we lynch Nerwen at least. The profit of the double-lynch is that we get to remove two unknowns while toMorrow we only get to remove one. One other player will be removed by then, yes, but it's most probably me whom no one suspects, so it won't really probably remove a lynch option in anyone's mind. The profit of lynching Gil is that we still have more time and our lynch toMorrow will probably be better thought of than any ex tempore double lynch right now. Still, I'm tempted... Aieee. edit: xed with Kath __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

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