Tol-in-Gaurhoth LIV: The Council of Evil

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

If I had to pick two people he had dreamt of, I'd say Agan (hunter) and sally (wolf/bear).

If he dreamt of me on night 1 (which makes the most sense), his Gwath vote means nothing. However I don't think he found Gwath a wolf even if he dreamt of him. In my opinion there isn't enough evidence pointing at it. Plus I find Gwath rather innocent-looking.
If he found Kath a baddie, why didn't he try to find any evidence against her? Therefore a Kath dream doesn't make sense to me.

I am for lynching sally today.

Honey, if he dreamt me, he would have tried to kill me. The Day I could have been lynched he voted for someone else. It just doesn't make sense, unless he dreamt me last Night which means nothing to us anyway.

I think Gwath makes a bit more sense for a baddie than Kath, although I'd be amenable to lynching either. However, I think I'll have to go for Gwath, for reasons I stated before.

Here's my predicament for the day. I don't know when/if I'm going into work (they have to fix a bunch of equipment or something so I don't know when they'll call me) but if I'm called in I might have to vote before I leave. Just letting you all know now. If I don't go to work today I'll hold my vote closer to deadline so we can have more discussion. I just wanted to keep you all in the loop.

[satansaloser2005]

By the way, we have to get toDay correct. Here's why.

We have seven players. (Agan, Sally, Kath, Eon, Gwath, Shasta, and Izzy.) Two wolves, and one bear.

We kill an innocent toDay, who is not me, we have six players and two wolves. ToNight the wolves kill Agan, who will no doubt take me with her. Four players, two wolves. The wolves win.

So if we have to lynch an innocent toDay, let it be me, I suppose. Because at least that way there's a chance that when/if Agan dies she'll take a wolf with her, instead of me.


Obviously I'd rather survive, but if we lynch an innocent toDay we're pretty much dead unless the wolves don't kill Agan or unless Agan changes her mind and hunter picks someone else. (Or unless she's lying. But I'm too lazy to consider that possibility. Besides, I'm pretty sure she's misguided, not guilty.)




So if it absolutely comes to it, I'll Nilp myself. But it's far from my first choice.

[satansaloser2005]

A few facts and figures.


There are (counting from my last post) 257 posts in this thread.

Agan has 68. I have 47. That means that, between the two of us, we are responsible for 44.75% of the posts in the game.

The dead players (Brinn, Boro, Ilya, Nog, Bowie, and Menel) have 78 posts between them, accounting for 30.35% of the posts.

Gollum has 20 posts, or 7.78% of the game thread.

That means that the other living players (Gwath, Eon, Kath, Shasta, and Izzy) all have under 20 posts apiece (all but Gwath have 15 or less) and between them account for 44 posts, 17.12% of the thread, and which also means that all of the other living players (sans Agan) combined have less posts than me.


Don't be offended, I know a lot of the people who are alive are having internet trouble or are away yet for Christmas/New Years, I'm just bored and felt like crunching some numbers.

Point is, I'd love to analyze people, but Izzy's got no posts, Shasta's only post is to say that he can't post, and the other three unknowns (again, assuming Agan's telling the truth about her being the hunter) don't strike me as particularly interesting either. Can't get blood out of a turnip, rock, whatever butters your toast, but the moral of the story is that this game is seriously lacking in posts.



Oooo I haven't done the votes for yesterDay yet. Perhaps I'll do that. At least I'll give somebody something to read when they come back.

[satansaloser2005]

Votes from Day 1
Brinn-->Agan at 12:22pm
Eon-->Gwath at 3:48pm
Bowie-->Brinn at 4:50pm
Boro-->Izzy at 4:51pm
Agan-->Brinn at 4:57pm
Noggie-->Brinn at 5:00pm
Menel-->Agan at 5:06pm*
Ilya-->Brinn at 6:11pm*
Gwath-->Eon at 6:32pm*
Did not vote: Izzy, Kath, Sally, Shasta


Votes from Day 2
Sally-->Ilya at 2:24pm
Kath-->Agan at 4:31pm
Agan-->Ilya at 4:54pm
Bowie-->Ilya at 4:58pm
Ilya-->Sally at 4:58pm
Menel-->Gwath at 7:23pm*
Did not vote: Eon, Gwath, Izzy, Nog, Shasta


Votes from Day 3
Menel-->Bowie at 4:03pm
Agan-->Sally at 4:44pm
Kath-->Agan at 4:55pm
Sally-->Bowie at 4:59pm
Eon-->Sally at 5:02pm
Did not vote: Bowie, Gwath, Izzy, Shasta


Again, underlined known guilty parties (not that we have any yet) and italicized known innocents (which are abundant). Times are Central, with a deadline of 5pm.

[Eönwë]

Ok, well I've come back.

I'm just going to go and reread posts some posts.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

That means that the other living payers (Gwath, Eon, Kath, Shasta, and Izzy) all have less than 20 posts apiece (all but Gwath have under 12)

You lie! (Sorry, I was just watching TT)
Still, I have 15 posts (now 16). It doesn't really matter, but still.
Or maybe it does matter. Maybe you're deliberately trying to make it look worse, and it is part of your plan for world (or at least village) domination. Or maybe it makes you more innocent, as a wolf might not be do careless.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Ok, well I've come back.

I'm just going to go and reread posts some posts.



You lie! (Sorry, I was just watching TT)
Still, I have 15 posts (now 16). It doesn't really matter, but still.
Or maybe it does matter. Maybe you're deliberately trying to make it look worse, and it is part of your plan for world (or at least village) domination. Or maybe it makes you more innocent, as a wolf might not be do careless.

oooops. you're right. *shifty eyes*

[satansaloser2005]

Little over an hour until deadline. Anyone around?

[Aganzir]

Yes I'm here.

I still think killing sally would be a good thing to do today.

[Aganzir]

The wolves kill me if they dare. I'm a known innocent but there's also a risk I choose well and take one with me. However keeping known innocents around for long has its risks, and the sooner they kill me the slighter the chance I can guess right...

Just so you know, if I have picked an innocent when the wolves attack me, I don't kill him/her. So if you sally indeed are innocent, you have no reason to be worried. And it's not certain that I'm going to hunt you anyway.

It irks me that we don't know if we need to find just one or even three baddies among the active players.

By the way, if you exclude Gollum's posts, you and I are responsible for 49% of the posts.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

The wolves kill me if they dare. I'm a known innocent but there's also a risk I choose well and take one with me. However keeping known innocents around for long has its risks, and the sooner they kill me the slighter the chance I can guess right...

Just so you know, if I have picked an innocent when the wolves attack me, I don't kill him/her. So if you sally indeed are innocent, you have no reason to be worried. And it's not certain that I'm going to hunt you anyway.

It irks me that we don't know if we need to find just one or even three baddies among the active players.

By the way, if you exclude Gollum's posts, you and I are responsible for 49% of the posts.

Really? Oh.....heh, the way I've normally played the hunter's kill goes down no matter what their role. Heck then, hunt me all you like (although I'd obviously prefer you chose a wolf or the bear) and I'll just go on about my business.


Well, I think that the bear is probably inactive, either that or both wolves are. Thus if one of those is the case it's obviously the bear who is idle. However, as someone pointed out earlier in the game, you can trace through night kills so if the bear can just sit back and let the wolves do their dirty work I'm sure they would. At the same time, though, it would be in their best interest to try to kill the wolves, thus making sure that the wolves don't kill them first.


Okay, so Agan, barring me, who do you suspect the most?


Heh, yeah I know, but leaving Gollum's posts in there made it look a bit better.

[Aganzir]

Oh forgot to say this.

Menel didn't leave any clear hints to his dreams. Therefore I don't think he would necessarily have voted you if he had dreamt of you and found you evil, so that's not a valid argument. And when he voted there were no other votes in and he couldn't know if you got voted at all. Therefore I find it understandable that he voted someone else in order not to get too much attention from the baddies, or because he didn't think he'd die so he rather wanted to check out one who he wasn't sure about yet.

edit: xed

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Oh forgot to say this.

Menel didn't leave any clear hints to his dreams. Therefore I don't think he would necessarily have voted you if he had dreamt of you and found you evil, so that's not a valid argument. And when he voted there were no other votes in and he couldn't know if you got voted at all. Therefore I find it understandable that he voted someone else in order not to get too much attention from the baddies, or because he didn't think he'd die so he rather wanted to check out one who he wasn't sure about yet.

edit: xed

You're right. Sorry about that, I got my Days confused and thought that was the Day he voted really late. My mistake.

[Aganzir]

Trying to get the hunter to tell about her plans, eh?

Hmm who are still alive?

Eeeeek I have no idea.

I have some minor suspicions about Kath.
I feel quite good about Gwath and Eönwë, maybe more so with Eönwë (who hasn't shown up for some time though).
About Shasta and Izzy I don't know, obviously.

If I can't come up with anyone and we lynch you now and you're innocent, I could of course hunt Izzy or Shasta and you'd have a known innocent if I died in the night and took no one with me... But that's just an option and if I'm going to do it, I'll tell you in advance.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Trying to get the hunter to tell about her plans, eh?

Hmm who are still alive?

Eeeeek I have no idea.

I have some minor suspicions about Kath.
I feel quite good about Gwath and Eönwë, maybe more so with Eönwë (who hasn't shown up for some time though).
About Shasta and Izzy I don't know, obviously.

If I can't come up with anyone and we lynch you now and you're innocent, I could of course hunt Izzy or Shasta and you'd have a known innocent if I died in the night and took no one with me... But that's just an option and if I'm going to do it, I'll tell you in advance.

Oooo now there's a good plan. Course if you pick a wolf the wolves just won't kill you.


Like I said before, I could go for Kath, but I'd prefer Gwath by a small margin, mostly because we'd still have talkative players. Then again, I think he's supposed to be back tomorrow, so I would be fine either way.

Let's see who else shows up, yeah?

[Aganzir]

Or then they try to bluff but however I'd still be alive tomorrow.

Or... sally we could make a deal? If you're a baddie you don't eat me and I won't hunt you and then we lynch everybody else and win together?