T-I-G LV Sing when you're winning

[Aganzir]

In a way I don't know what to make of Mac's 'Rikae told me...' things. If he's a wolf, it wouldn't be very nice to use reasons like that.

He suspected Menel for being too careful based on the three two-liners he had posted. I didn't find Menel suspicious then nor did I now that I read through his posts so I don't really see where Mac's coming from. Besides Menel is a rather easy day 1 target.
He found everyone more or less innocent (or unknown) but Brinn and me who Rikae warned him about, and Menel. I don't like his Menel suspicion very much. It looks like it was enough for him to came up with someone he could vote before leaving without any actual reasons.

In the post where he said he has to vote soon he also said this:

Would anyone please act very, very suspicious within the next half hour?

It trips my radar. It looks like what a wolf could say as they know most people (excluding the cobbler whom they don't want to kill) are innocent yet need to come up with proper suspicions. Saying that doesn't make Mac a wolf but it's scary nonetheless.

When tgwbs agreed with Mac about Menel being too careful but accused Mac of carefulness & not explaining his thought process at the same time, he replied:

What thought process?

I don't think I would have been suspicious of this otherwise but Boro accused me the same a while ago because Macwolf had done it. However I think our cases were different - I denied having a case against someone as I had merely been bringing up points against them while commenting on the day's happenings (plus there was a whole lot of misunderstanding concerning which post was talked about), but here Mac denies having any thought process as for why Menel seemed careful. Yes it's sometimes hard to elaborate, especially if it's a gut feeling, but he could at least have tried instead of downplaying suspicions like that.

He voted Menel with the resolution he had shown since the beginning. It looks like he had just in the beginning decided to chase Menel because he was easy enough.

Yeesh... once I have to vote early and believe that you auditioners are smart enough to not do something terribly foolish, and then that.

*shakes head*

Okay then there's this. He explained it was a half-joke already but still I don't like it, just because I can remember a couple of Macwolves having the same I-told-you attitude.

He apologized Menel, saying he sounded very innocent later with his responses to Mac's vote. For the reference, here are all Menel's posts after Mac's vote: 170, 177, 187, 203. What exactly made him sound more innocent there?

Mac asked Boro why he thought his vote for Menel was an easy way to slide by the day. At least I had no problems realising what Boro meant.

He analysed day 1's votes. I won't bother quoting the whole thing here but if someone wants to see it, here's a link. I disagree on sally's retraction being somehow innocent-looking. Also a baddie would do it to avoid suspicion.
I don't understand this:

Aganzir's vote for Nogrod is consequent - she suspected him for a long time. Not suspicious, unless her suspicions before were fabricated.

Just what's the point in saying the part after the comma? I think it should be self-evident anyway, and besides he couldn't know if my suspicions were fabricated until either I was dead or my role revealed by the seer so I can see no reason why he said it unless to keep some random suspicion on me.

When I said I was growing suspicious of him because of those comments, he replied vaguely:

Originally Posted by Mac

But Aganzir, we've been wolves together once: you know that, when evil, I give every effort to appear the exact same way I do when innocent...

This doesn't actually even answer to the thing I said, ie that he reminded me of a wolfish Mac. He just circumvents the question by saying that as a wolf he tries to be just like when innocent. So what? Maybe it's just bad luck on my part but I can't remember any innocent Mac saying the things that first set off my alarm.

He didn't suspect me despite me bringing up points against him. Okay my points weren't very big but still. I don't know if he just found me innocent or if he wanted to avoid attention (not that he'd be afraid of me but negative attention is negative attention and can work as a foundation for larger suspicion). I can remember an innocent Mac retaliating to my suspicions, but I also remember an innocent Mac finding the ever-suspicious me innocent.

On day 2 she found Fea's vote suspicious bet decided to let her be because he thought phantom would figure her out sooner or later. He also found Brinn's vote suspicious and said he was a bit suspicious of tgwbs earlier but his posts since had looked innocent.
He thought Boro was innocentish and commented on his vote for Mac by 'Fair reasoning, fair placement.'

His main suspect was Gwath. After having a look at him he concluded that he has posted very little of substance and wondered if a critic tried to appear more helpful. He found Gwath's vote careless because of getting the bandwagon rolling. Mind you, Gwath had two suspects, and I think he had more of a reason to suspect Nog than Lari. Should he have voted her then, or come up with someone completely different? And what does it matter if he gets the bandwagon rolling? At least someone he suspected got lynched, and I'm rather certain Nog would've been lynched even if it wasn't for Gwath's vote. Mac is right, though, that Gwath didn't post about anyone else but those two. Nonetheless, Gwath as well as Menel are always rather easy to suspect, and I can't say I particularly like Mac gunning for those.

Of Ilya (whom he later ended up voting) he had nothing to say except that she had too many quotes. He also found her vote a throwaway. As the day went on Ilya started having some suspicions against Mac on grounds that weren't the best I've seen, which partly explains his later decision to vote her.

As for Mac's vote analysis, I think somebody also mentioned it but he didn't analyse those people who retracted to save Nog until later. Nog's innocence doesn't make those people innocent and I can see no reason to exclude the saving attempt from the analysis.
Also, why did my vote placement look evil? Because I voted after other people had said they didn't want Nog lynched?

Later on day 2 his main suspects were Fea and Gwath and he was also suspicious of Ilya and Brinn. If you don't count the throwaway vote thing, he didn't give proper reasons for suspecting Ilya until later.
I think we must wait till Fea's role is revealed to get a clear image of his suspicion. Wolf-on-wolf (or wolf-on-cobbler) is a possibility, especially if they had a reason to assume Fea had been dreamed of. I would imagine a cobbler Fea to be rather good at making her identity known to the wolves and a wolfish Mac to be quite good at catching the hints, and in that light his Fea suspicion could be an honest one. More on that after Fea's death.

Some twenty minutes before deadline Mac posted a small case against Ilya. I could agree with it but there were some things I don't really like. He found her not too convincing defence of Gwath suspicious because he was also suspicious of Gwath. Here's Ilya's defence he was referring to. Of course I now have the benefit of knowing Ilya was innocent, but I don't think her comment was suspicious.
What kind of connection did you see between Ilya and Brinn, Mac?

He voted Ilya on day 2, saying he could sense a last-minute bandwagon against him. I'm not going back to check every post from day 2 but as far as I'm aware only Ilya and me considered voting him seriously. Wolves usually tend to overestimate the amount of suspicion against them and that comment doesn't feel very good.

After some day 1 suspicion against Mac, tgwbs moved him gradually towards his innocent category which could speak in favour of Mac. However he was still listed as somewhat suspicious at the beginning of the day although not very close to the most suspicious end. In an earlier post tgwbs had said he didn't find Mac especially suspicious.
Dreaming of an innocent Mac might explain tgwbs's suspicion against me. On day 1 he called my points against Mac good whereas on day 2 he didn't like my suspicions against him anymore. There are many other dream candidates, though, but his opinion makes me feel a bit more uncertain about Mac.

In his analysis of tgwbs's posts, Mac reached the conclusion that he had probably dreamed of Fea and me and found us both baddies. Of course I am biased when talking about this as I am pretty certain of my own innocence, but I think he seems to be a bit too quick to jump to conclusions, being even ready to suggest a double lynch.

However, he definitely dreamt of Fea. Anything else is inconceivable. It is also quite inconceivable that tgwbs wrote one known-to-him baddie on the same line with an only suspected baddie. Therefore:

Night 1: Fea
Night 2: Aganzir

And by the way, there's still a chance he didn't dream of Fea but was just suspicious of her for other reasons (and was probably right). I don't know how likely that is but there is no way he could say for certain that I'm a baddie, and his putting me together with Fea makes me think he didn't dream of her either. Just because I don't think either that any seer would ever say a dreamed of baddie and someone not dreamed of are equally suspicious. You can call this a poor try if you wish but you shall see, you shall see.

Mac has been pursuing the Fea-and-Agan-are-guilty thing the whole day. He said if Fea and I are fellows I let go of Fea to save myself. Not exactly true because I found her suspicious already yesterday (to which Mac answers by saying it could be wolf-on-wolf). Also, he didn't believe me when I told I hadn't really comprehended tgwbs seemed to suspect me and the likely dreamed of baddie Fea just as much, and said omitting it from my post & pretending tgwbs didn't think so & hoping no one else would notice it was what he'd do as a wolf. Well, I was telling the truth. I'm not perfect believe it or not.

Mac accused Boro of being either malevolent or blinded by tgwbs's headache-talk for suggesting his first dream might not have been a wolf. I think he's overreacting. It's a bit dangerous to be so sure he's right. He wants to get Fea and me lynched and is rather persuasive about it - I think he looks too certain to be innocent. And if Fea is the cobbler she's done her duty or is needed no more & can be sacrificed since the critics already killed the seer.

Originally Posted by Mac to Fea

Given the evidence against you, a genuine statement of innocence and surprise would probably have been the only thing that could have saved you. Now only a miracle could.

Does that apply to me as well? I can tell you why I didn't make a genuine statement of innocence & surprise after tgwbs's death - it never occurred to me that he could have dreamed of me since he was suspicious of me. You're accusing Fea of that but what if she's innocent and thought the same as I did? And regardless of Fea's role I don't like that accusation. If she had actually done it you'd be saying now, 'She's Fea, she can easily pull that off. I would be much more willing to believe her if she wasn't trying to convince us about her innocence now.'

If there was any doubt about Fea being tgwbs's dream, Mac countered it eg by asking how the seer could have made it clearer that he wanted Fea lynched. His certainty about Fea's guilt added to his willingness to double lynch don't look very good on him. It looks as if he actually knows Fea is a baddie and wants the result of the lynch to not be too bad for his team. There are after all rather high chances that the other lynchee would be innocent.
He tries to justify it by saying that if Fea is the cobbler, lynching her is just what she wants us to do. But when has Fea actually been declared the cobbler? Yes she could be, but she could also be a critic. Or innocent.

In Mac's opinion I would be a good double lynch candidate along with Fea, but he's also willing to listen if someone comes up with someone better. So it's practically all the same to him who we lynch as long as it is a double lynch? If he really thought tgwbs had dreamed of me & found me guilty, wouldn't he be much more enthusiastic about getting me lynched? Yes I know it would be difficult to organize a double lynch but still. Or is he just wavering because he knows I'm innocent?

All in all I'm feeling quite bad about Mac.

I have a feeling I'm getting flu & I'm quite tired so I'm going to sleep.

I hope Mac appreciates this because it took me ages to finish.

[Macalaure]

All quotes by Aganzir.

I don't understand what this talk about double lynch is. Just because Fea is most likely a baddie, do we have to take a risk of lynching an innocent as well (and I'm not speaking only about a double lynch I'd be a part of)?

Risk? Chance!

Since Fea is a goner, we have the chance to lynch another baddie as well. Might go wrong, sure, but so can every lynch.

We are given an opportunity here and we should seize it!

Still I don't think two people are enough to cause a bandwagon when there are still so many people alive.

Ilya did, too. In fact, the way she voiced her suspicions against me was what got me on her track and made me take a close look at her on which I saw a couple of suspicious things which made me vote her. Also, I consider Boro to be a Mac-vote waiting to happen.

In a way I don't know what to make of Mac's 'Rikae told me...' things. If he's a wolf, it wouldn't be very nice to use reasons like that.

Rikae was more or less looking over my shoulder and told me this and that, so I saw no reason not to mention that. Has nothing to do with my role.

It looks like it was enough for him to came up with someone he could vote before leaving without any actual reasons.

I didn't point it out because I thought it to be obvious: the reason to leave that I had was RL. My suspicion of Menel was not much indeed, but all that I could come up with. Any other vote would have been random.

The "Would anyone please act very, very suspicious within the next half hour?" meant that I was largely clueless and was joking about somebody to please be obviously suspicious before I had to vote half an hour later. I seriously fail to see the scariness of that.

but here Mac denies having any thought process

You can't seriously take my jokes and hold them against me as evidence... sheesh

What exactly made him sound more innocent there?

No particular quote, just the way he retaliated his suspicion and vote. Seemed very innocent.

He didn't suspect me despite me bringing up points against him. Okay my points weren't very big but still.

Had nothing to do with their size, but whether they appeared to be honest and genuine. They seemed so to me, so I had no reason to counter the suspicion.

Mind you, Gwath had two suspects, and I think he had more of a reason to suspect Nog than Lari.

Yes, but, no offense, both suspicions were very weak. The carelessness was, in my opinion, that he didn't try harder to look for suspects. It's kind of hilarious that you accuse me of doing what defend Gwath for doing to a much larger extent.

and I'm rather certain Nog would've been lynched even if it wasn't for Gwath's vote.

That is most certainly wrong.

he didn't analyse those people who retracted to save Nog until later.

I did. I considered it innocentish, but I found that so obvious that I didn't use many words and had to elaborate later.

What kind of connection did you see between Ilya and Brinn, Mac?

Some of the things she found suspicious of others could have been applied to Brinn, too, but weren't. That made me suspicious. If you want me to, I can elaborate.

I think he's overreacting.

I was. I had just finished my analysis and then saw one that came to the opposite conclusion and ignored an important possibility (Fea=cobbler).

He tries to justify it by saying that if Fea is the cobbler, lynching her is just what she wants us to do. But when has Fea actually been declared the cobbler? Yes she could be, but she could also be a critic. Or innocent.

That's not the actual justification, just and additional point. She is almost certainly evil, and if she's the cobbler, we basically end up wasting a lynch, which is right up the cobbler's alley.

So it's practically all the same to him who we lynch as long as it is a double lynch?

Of course not. I want to double lynch the person that we consider most likely to be a critic. I think that is you, but if the other singers think otherwise (unless, of course, I really think that person is innocent) I'd be willing to give it a shot with him. We have a very good chance to lynch two baddies at once. We should take it.

I hope Mac appreciates this because it took me ages to finish.

Very, very much appreciated! It was fun to read and write these replies, though their length is unworthy of the analysis they are replying to.

You look neither more nor less suspicious to me than before. Your analysis has a few very good points and it often goes way past it's mark. Your analysis is clearly not unbiased, but I'm not holding that against you. If I were innocent and in your position, I would not be able to analyse the person who wants to double-lynch me objectively either.

I still want to double-lynch you , but I rather doubt it's going to happen.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I would just like to say...

I would very much appreciate if you didn't lynch me.

That is all.

[the phantom]

All right.

According to what we have from TGWBS, if we lynch Fea and she is innocent, we assume that neither Fea nor Agan was dreamt guilty, but rather that Boro and Kath or Boro and I were dreamt innocent.

If Fea is guilty, we assume that she was a dream. The next question- does the Fea-Agan pairing on one single line dictate that we should certainly lynch Agan next, or should we assume that it was a way to throw the baddies off the scent, and that the other dream was actually innocent (me, or perhaps Boro)?

[the phantom]

Boro- hope you enjoyed the football over the weekend. And I hope you enjoy this news report.

[Gollum the Great]

Why is it that most everyone thinks Fea is a critic?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Due to the fact that TGWBS neurotically always thinks I'm guilty of something, and consequently left behind a lot of suggestions that the village lynch me even though he didn't actually dream of me.