T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Rikae]

Sally - actually, I didn't retract my vote for Lommy the moment I made it. That would have been weird, though.

Well, I just want to say, now that it's day 2, as far as I'm concerned no one gets a free pass - not the newbies, not Mac, nobody.

(I'm glad of the chance to hear more from you, though.)

I didn't have a good feeling about Nerwen yesterDay, and it only got worse. I think I'll go and take a closer look at her posts toDay. Also, Shasta's death makes Nogrod worth a second look, I'd say.

EDIT: Somehow "crossed with" - or rather, failed to see - the whole page. Eek.

[Macalaure]

In one way Shasta's death is good, because, while it left no trails, its intent is obvious. We don't have to sort out a handful of trails and decide on each whether it means something or not, which usually leads to ten valid, but mutually exclusive conclusions.

I dont believe that the wraiths thought he might be the seer. Gollum, no offense, is not a likely Night1 dream and Lommy and her pack would have to be over-paranoid to think she's been dreamed of. Shasta's astrology-talk must have been obviously enough IC and no hint, I think.

I see these options:

1. The wraiths were under unexpectedly much Day1-pressure and chose a safe kill. this is unlikely, though, since there are better ways to divert attention.
2. The wraiths were under absolutely no pressure and the village was entirely wrong about each candidate. The trail-less kill was chosen to prolong this state.
3. The wraiths are timid by nature and didn't dare to assault anybody who even might leave a track towards them. (In this case, they might even have thought that Shasta was the seer.)
4. The wraiths are sportsmen who thought it was a good idea to keep those alive that talked more and kill those who talked less.

-While Option 1 is possible, I'd like to discard it for now - mostly because that goes along with my suspicions from yesterday (it would more or less mean that both Lommy and Brinn are wraiths).
-Option 2 only means that Lommy and Brinn (and me, of course) are innocent. The wraiths could be anybody else.
-Option 3 leads us, I think, to Lari, Mirandir, and Beregond, for (relative) newbieness, and to Lommy, Brinn, and maybe Lily, for being of a more timid nature. It exonerates villagers who are both daring and dominant, such as Legate, Rikae, Nogrod, and Nerwen.
-Option 4 points to Legate and Nogrod (not saying that everybody else is not sportsmanlike, but those two are most likely to make a point of it).

So much for valid conclusions that are mutually exclusive. That was before came to think about what it actually means.


I will next look whether I can learn anything from the voting and Gollum's death. Maybe I'll have more luck there.

Originally Posted by Rune

I really don't get why people always vote after the same pattern on every day 1, it is getting quite predictable. I can understand why Brinn and Mac votes for Gollum, nobody can be blamed for saving ones own skin. . .but that quite experienced players do it, that pussles me.

What exact pattern do you mean?

Originally Posted by Rune

Mac basicly did not wan't to vote for anybody, but especially not Lommy. . .for apparently no reason.

Lommy was in greater danger of gathering votes than Brinn was, that's why I mentioned her more.

Originally Posted by Rune

He advocates this, but nothing happens until Nerwen shows up and vote for Gollum.

Well, I was in danger of being lynched! Why should I have voted earlier and risked voting the wrong person?

[Lariren Shadow]

I do have to agree with Mirandir's comment on voting yesterday. It seemed really off the way some of them were acting. Mac I can understand, he did it before to save himself. Some of the other votes, well that get's to me.

Nog's assumption that Day 1 votes point to guilt seems weird to me. From what I understand they are a shot in the dark. No evidence, nothing. It just sort of goes from one suspicion to the next until someone gets more votes.

Be back to do a better anaylsis later toDay.

[Nogrod]

So here we go again... I fail in my trial of posting only the minimum and here's thev result... Maybe I should just actually shut my mouth?

But before I do it, I'll say something about those ill-adviced points made by Greenie and Aganzir. Yes I am against self-proclaimed "random-voting". I have been and I will be against it even if you lynch me on Day1 or 2 in every game because of that. And I also think I can claim the moral highgroud there.

Who you vote and why is probably the single most important thing others can look afterwards and base their suspicions on. Yes, there are other things and many times they can prove to be more succesful but still your voting record combined with your reasoning for your votes is a steady and constant source of information. Most importantly the wolves need to fake their real reasons behind their votes while innocents can be honest. And that makes a difference.

Now callling it out aloud that your vote is totally random basically annihilates the thing we should need to see eg. why do you claim to vote like you do. To me it's not a question of a playing-style - which of course everyone is entitled to pick and choose as they wish - but of kind of playing against the spirit of the game or should I say not playing but trying to parasitically sneak outside the discussion which after all is the base of this game in the first place.

So I will continue to suspect and press on those who claim their votes are random. Only when one knows - or there is a high probability - that calling one's vote a random one leads to immediate lynching will that behaviour cease and people start to actually play.

I know I'm a little like Don Quixote here fighting the windmills... I know. But I'll stand tall and die for it if I have to.

What a rant... pffft...

Originally Posted by Rikae

Also, Shasta's death makes Nogrod worth a second look, I'd say.

This idea, shared by Aganzir at least, is just... well, annoying. But it might be a plot made by the wolves and therefore maybe it's good it has been brought forwards. It might serve a purpose after all.

But to be honest it's a ridiculous claim. To those who don't know it, this idea comes from the following history. During the fall I was a wolf in a couple of games and more or less forced my mates in crime to kill silent, non-active, only IC players or "less dangerous" / less "independent-minded" players - whatever you read into those - during the Night (and I have acted on similarish principles as wolf also earlier). But after those few games quite recently it became kind of "talk of he town" - and we indeed lost the last one of those games because of the boldness of our kill-choices - or shared knowledge that if some of the less "threatening"-looking players are killed by Night early in the game then Nogrod is a wolf behind that decision. Now knowing how desperately certain people cling to the first possible reason to find something to suspect or to back their votes with, it would be plain suicidal for me to continue in that manner now that the meme "Noggie always does that" is around.

So rest assured, were I a wolf in this game it would have been fex. Rikae or Legate you would have found dead this morning (assuming neither was a wolf as well of course).


Okay.

I have a mountain of dishes to wash and dinner to prepare before Lommy and Greenie come back. I'll try to post something more constructive or more helpful in relation to the actual wraith-hunt later.

As now I'm having all my alarms ringing for Aganzir because of the way she kind of adds to a fire lit by Greenie, whom I could see as partly justifiedly being annoyed about me pointing out her vote and the grounds for it that early in the game. So point taken Greenie: your vote was early and "nothing" had happened when you voted, but I wouldn't say the same from many other votes I pointed to in that post.

Also I'd say that be on the watch for all the smooth players, those you feel like they're nice and helpful. Those are most likely to be those owning the hands that kill you at Night.


EDIT: X'd with Mac and Lari

[Rikae]

But Nog, so-called "random" votes can be analyzed, too. I don't for a minute assume they're necessarily as random as they say, and failing to give a reason can be innocent enough in some circumstances and incriminating in others, just as pretty much any reasoning given can.

I hope we're not about to see a Agan vs. Nog feud ending in the loss of two innocents. Nog would be rather easy to make a case against. The "I wouldn't do that as a wolf, really, I swear, I mean it" is reaslly no defense at all, but I don't find it incriminating, either. He is a bit paranoid, though.
Certainly the Shasta kill could be an attempt to frame Nog, at least in part, but I'm not so sure the "quiet player dead=Nogwolf" equation is so widely accepted. Maybe that's just because I missed the games where it became so, though.
Agan looks more innocent than not toDay. Her reactions seem pretty reasonable to me.

On another note, perhaps we should just lynch Sally. Every time I read one of her posts, I get stuck in this loop of "She looks so evil! But she's just being Sally! But she looks SOOO evil! But she always looks evil!" - very distracting, at least.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I know I should post, but I don't have anything to say just yet. I don't think I'll be around much today, for RL reasons, but I'd appreciate if you didn't lynch me while I'm gone.

I mean, I'll be around and reading, and getting gut reactions, but I don't really have the time/state of mind necessary to try and view posts objectively.

Therefore: I'll read along, but won't have much to contribute except for this:

I'm never comfortable with lists of possibilities for the personality types of wolves. Because there are always more options. Like yeah, the wolves could all be timid, or they could all be playing timid. Or you might have three really dominant wolves who decide that their only strategy is to be the final survivor, so it's everybody for themselves. Or like, last game the way it ran was that I was ringleader for the first few days, and when I was lynched, everybody knew that the first two Night deaths were on me, so they didn't have any evidence to go on to catch the other wolves, because having one really strong personality can cloud others. There are always other options, and the option that whoever is playing is trying something new.

I mean, your options are good, Mac, but there's no such thing as a totally complete list of 'possibilities' because there are always more options. Unless you're listing possibilities that you, yourself, ran through.

*turns attention back to the library and grad school stuff*

[Beregond]

Mac - I voted for him yesterday as the best of bad choices, but he's seeming more innocent since. Still, keeping him on my suspicious list.
Nogrod - facing finger-pointing, answered well, but I've heard how smooth he can be. Suspicious, but good to have on one's side. As with Mac, I'm realizing.
Greenie - her and Agan are on Nog's case. I don't know who to believe, but if Nog is innocent these two are suspicious...
Agan - ...but she and Greenie have otherwise seemed innocent, more or less, so far.

Brinn - tend to think she's innocent, but not wanting to underestimate
Lommy, Nerwen and Rikae - cautiously labeling them as innocent, but watching. More suspicious because of what others have said.
Sally, Fea, Lari, Mira - not making themselves suspicious
Menel and Durelin - just not much to go on
Rune - seems fairly innocent of being a wolf
Legate - also acting innocent

Having made that list, I'm not really suspicious of anyone, nor am I sure of anyone's innocence. I thought making a list would help. It didn't. Thankfully it's early. Take this as you like: I have a lot of work to do but I'll be reading and will contribute if I feel I have anything to say.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

What exact pattern do you mean?

The pattern I mentioned when Greenie voted Gollum. . . you can go back and rea, if it still obscure then I will be happy to write more on the matter.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Lommy was in greater danger of gathering votes than Brinn was, that's why I mentioned her more.

Was it. . . to me it seems that you underline how little you want to vote Lommy, it simply seems that she must not die.
Obviously neither of us have english as a first language and that may play a part in this.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Well, I was in danger of being lynched! Why should I have voted earlier and risked voting the wrong person?

You shouldn't, I was just saying how things happened.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So here we go again... I fail in my trial of posting only the minimum and here's thev result... Maybe I should just actually shut my mouth?
i

Yes, please. . .
Actually I am suprised that you made your tactics public, there is always people who can object to such things. Such an action is bound to attract atention and in turn force you to reply.

EDIT: Coss Posted With Beregond

[Macalaure]

Lily -> Gollum - the first vote, looks neither innocent nor suspicious
Lommy -> Aganzir - flip-floppy, but that doesn't mean much. The vote alone is neither suspicious nor innocent either
Gollum -> Brinn
Aganzir -> Lari - why does she vote randomly? She did have suspicions and opinions, yet she discarded them
Legate -> Mac - first real vote of the day
Shasta -> Lommy
Nogrod -> Gollum - it's not that he criticises random votes, that's to be encouraged, but that his choice is limited to it, that's unnecessary
Menel -> Mac - maybe there's a bit of a revenge involved, but his reasons alone are awful
Rune -> Brinn - he is so over the top about her, that he's probably innocent
Fea -> Brinn - giving somebody a third vote for paranoia's sake? suspicious
Mirandir -> Lommy - looks fine to me
Beregond -> Mac - picks up what everybody else is talking about without mentioning it before. Bandwaggonish vote and reason, something a newbie wraith might do.
Durelin -> Lommy - another could be either vote
Sally -> Mac - not as awful as Menel and Beregond, but still
Lari -> Durelin - throws her vote away in order to prevent a double lynch: suspicious
Rikae -> Lommy - the first vote intended to save me, no reason to suspect
Nerwen -> Gollum - if she's a wraith and one of the other candidates is, too, she would have found an easier way to save that one. If she's a wraith and the other candidates are innocent, she could have chosen a player with a bigger name to get rid of. She must've known that her vote would make others follow and that a different vote would have discouraged them. It doesn't seem to fit, so it's probably an innocent vote. Interesting, though, that she does not mention Brinn in her vote post.
Mac -> Gollum
Brinn -> Gollum - had pretty much the same reasons as I did, plus she was annoyed with him
Rikae -> Gollum - she talked about voting him before but only did so after his death was more or less sealed, which is a bit strange

Suspicious vote: Aganzir, Fea
A bit suspicious vote: Nogrod, Menel, Beregond, Lari
Somewhere in the middle: Lily, Lommy, Durelin, Sally, Rikae
Less suspicious vote: Rune, Mirandir, Nerwen, Brinn
Innocent vote: Legate


Nogrod is trying to hide in the open, I see.

Fea, those were only the options that came to my mind, of course. I didn't say that there are no others. Even incomplete lists like these are helpful, though, I think, as long as people don't end up thinking that there are no other ways.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Fea, those were only the options that came to my mind, of course. I didn't say that there are no others. Even incomplete lists like these are helpful, though, I think, as long as people don't end up thinking that there are no other ways.

My only concern is really in line with your last comment: it's very easy to fall into the trap that the listed options are the only options. It would be an easy bad guy trick to list off potential scenarios which people would then be distracted by.

[Rikae]

Mac, you make a good point about Nerwen's vote. When I saw it, I thought it seemed like she was trying to protect someone, but, after all, she couldn't have been trying to protect all three of you.
Mac just told our daughter that I'm 'doof'. I am the seer, he is a wraith. Lynch him! You will find the proof of my claim in my first Day 1 post.
It occurs to me that the baddies may have thought Shasta was Frodo. I thought he might have been hinting at it, after his first post. That's not much help, though, I suppose.
I just realized I forgot Menel was playing. It might behoove me to make a list of my own, so no one slips through the cracks (or sleeps under the reindeer). In a little while.

[Rikae]

Oh yeah, and:

Originally Posted by Mac

Rikae -> Gollum - she talked about voting him before but only did so after his death was more or less sealed, which is a bit strange

How so? It was my only retractable vote, and I didn't want to use it, then have someone else change their vote and I wouldn't be able to react, so I waited until the last minute.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I am the seer, he is a wraith. Lynch him! You will find the proof of my claim in my first Day 1 post.

This may seem like a silly question, but...

Really?

[Beregond]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac just told our daughter that I'm 'doof'. I am the seer, he is a wraith. Lynch him! You will find the proof of my claim in my first Day 1 post.

I have no idea if you're serious, kidding, or throwing us on a goose-chase, but, hey...

Originally Posted by Rikae

Shasta, you're an Aquarius, correct?

Even showing up as late as I did, I almost had the opportunity to make my point about Mr. Underhill before anyone else, but then Nog had to go and mess it up for me. Eh. Revealing may be the best thing Frodo can do for the village. If we know who he is, as soon as a kill is missed (Frodo is changed) we can lynch him. Also, there is no incentive for a baddie to falsely reveal as Frodo, since changing the real Frodo will get the false Frodo lynched. Maybe he could serve as a known innocent of sorts? Nevertheless, it's up to the ringbearer.

On the other hand, if Bill Ferny doesn't count as a baddie in the head count, he is really no more powerful than a cobbler who has the ability to clue the wolves in to his own identity. This gives us some hope of catching him, as well as the wolves, since, knowing no more than any ordinary villager, the most he can realistically do is use daytime hints in addition to his nighttime messages to help the wolves find him.

By the way, I'm a Pisces (a real one).

EDIT: X'd with the whole page and God only knows what else. By the way, I'm a fan of the gender-neutral pronouns, myself, but since we have a built-in gender for our gifted characters in this game, I went with that.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I think it is a quite reasonable question you ask, Fea.

Originally Posted by Mac

Nerwen -> Gollum - if she's a wraith and one of the other candidates is, too, she would have found an easier way to save that one. If she's a wraith and the other candidates are innocent, she could have chosen a player with a bigger name to get rid of. She must've known that her vote would make others follow and that a different vote would have discouraged them. It doesn't seem to fit, so it's probably an innocent vote.

An easier way?
I thought it was rather easy for her to get the votes rolling. . . and who is it who has a bigger name than Gollum? (You, Brinn or Lommy?)

Anyways I am meeting a friend for pints at the pub soon, so I will leave shortly.

EDIT: Cross Posted With Beregond

[Brinniel]

Sally: Her first several posts are banter, but it's her posts at the end of the Day that make me slightly uneasy. Her opinions on players seem non-committed.

Fea: I don't like her voting yesterDay, particularly the timing of it. Of course maybe I'm just biased because the vote was for me, but I still think the placement looks bad.

Lariren: Her vote might've been a throwaway, but I actually don't find it all that suspicious. Nothing about her jumps out to me, however I am wary since she did play a brilliant wolf last game.

Mirandir: Has made a decent number of posts, but they are all short containing only a couple of lines. I really would like to hear more from her.

Lommy: Her posts are quite sensible so far and I think she looks rather innocentish.

Legate: Seems sensible, but careful. I've also learned a sensible Legate, can mean an evil Legate. Nothing particularly suspicious about him at the moment, however I would like to keep my eye on him.

Rikae: Looks to be her bold self as usual. Doesn't necessarily point to either guilt or innocence.

Aganzir: Is a big question mark to me. I go back and forth on her with each post. I admit I don't find her an easy person to trust, therefore I can't help but feel the need to watch out for her.

Nogrod: Contrary to what others have been saying, I think he looks more innocentish than guilty. He's not as smooth as he can be when a wolf and I somehow doubt he would experiment with a new playing style if he were evil. And toDay his reaction to being suspected looked rather honest.

Beregond: How many nicknames does this poor guy have? I see some newbie-ish behaviour, but overall I think he's doing well for his first game. And I certainly won't underestimate the possibility of a newbie being a wraith.

Nerwen: I don't like how she suddenly jumped in with her vote, it looks a bit fishy. But otherwise her posts don't exactly stand out as terribly suspicious. I will keep an eye on her.

Rune: Of course I don't like how he's attacked me, but he's always had this negative attitude towards me and while yesterDay it was more intense than I ever recall it being, I don't think it necessarily points to guilt. If anything, it's more likely innocent behaviour, but then again I've never seen Rune play a wolf so I honestly don't know how he would behave as one.

Mac: Yes, his Ferny comment did look rather odd, but I don't think that's enough reason alone to seriously suspect him. And his other posts don't look all that suspicious to me.

Menel: Has made the least amount of posts so far. Where is he?

Durelin: So far her posts look innocent and sincere. But I would like to see more of her.

Greenie: Her posts toDay seem suspiciously careful and well thought out, which worries me.

The List:

Suspicious
Sally
Fea
Greenie

Watching
Legate
Nerwen
Aganzir

No Clue
Lari
Mira
Rikae
Beregond
Mac
Menel

Innocent
Lommy
Nogrod
Durelin

(Okay, I was in the middle of writing this post when the whole Rikae thing came up. I'm not sure what to make of all this, but I thought she was just joking. Was she not? )

EDIT: X-ed with Agan

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

(Okay, I was in the middle of writing this post when the whole Rikae thing came up. I'm not sure what to make of all this, but I thought she was just joking. Was she not? )

I think she was joking, but I had nothing better to do than pretend she was serious and see what I could dig up with that assumption.

[Brinniel]

Well, I really can't see that seer comment being anything serious. It looks more like another Rikae/Mac joke. But I'm finding everyone's reactions to the comment to be very odd.

Originally Posted by Fea

I had nothing better to do than pretend she was serious and see what I could dig up with that assumption.

I can't see what kind of benefit comes from pretending such a thing. It just causes distractions.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I can't see what kind of benefit comes from pretending such a thing. It just causes distractions.

Option: she's just kidding and it's a harmless waste of time while I'm at work.

Option: she's actually the seer and we need to figure out what clues she left because she stands a shot of dying tonight

Option: she's actually Frodo and wants to be turned tonight (thereby making a target out of herself)

Option: she's a bad guy and we need to figure out her motives

Option: insert any option you like.

What benefit doesn't come from taking a close look at statements? If it's a joke, I'm not particularly upset about a bit of time taken from my day. If it's not, I've got a head start on figuring out what it means.