T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Beregond]

I can't believe I've spent so much time reading through, and I feel more muddled than ever. At any rate, I gave up reading through to the end, so I'm going to ignore a page and post before it's too late. I apologize in advance if I forget to bold any names or make other mistakes. I typed this in a notepad and have to make adjustments after.

I'm not really more muddled though...not quite... I'm starting to agree with the idea of Fea being guilty, though I wanted to be skeptical. I'm also not letting Mac off the hook. So, in otherwords, I'm agreeing with popular opinion. Hmn.



*******

Responding to Legate:

Like Rikae said, the red herring is just a figure of speech. I didn't even know you were a herring, though now I recall seeing it somewhere.

And no offense taken, calling me a newbie, although you also say I could be using it for a cloak. Well, I may have been, but I'm trying to avoid it now.

*******



So again in no particular order:


Sally: I keep hearing "Sally is just being Sally" which is very unhelpful, since I don't know Sally. But I don't have an opinion on her innocence. Like Dury, I just don't know, so wouldn't vote.

Legate: doing his best to seem innocent by being very helpful - I'm buying it still. I really hope he isn't evil, because he's making a lot of sense.

Mira: I'm prepared to give her the benefit of the doubt on the Dury vote - she's Fea's friend, right? And her first game - don't blame her for wanting to keep Fea alive. But all 5 Dury voters do need extra-careful watching.

Lari: Including Lari. She was the first to question Fea's guilt, then not long after:

Originally Posted by Lari

Now if we were to try to lynch Fea toDay, I'd be more for it than anyone else(unless maybe Mac or Rikae because, well, Mac has been sort of saved twice now and some of Rikae's posts are making me wonder)

...which Mac pointed out. But I think it's acceptable that she was just trying to make sure all sides of the story were examined, because up to that point Fea didn't have many supporters. And then wanted to clarify that she in fact does find Fea suspicious.


Agan: I don't really like to comment on her argument with Lommy, except that it WAS public. I don't know them well enough, but it occurred to me, and Lari after, that it might be a good means of "separation" if they were both wraiths.

Lommy: same.

Rune: not seeming so innocent anymore after last Day. Then again, his defending Fea is almost too obvious, for a wraith. Good explanation by him too. Don't know what to think.

Nerwen: excellent chronology of the passing of Durelin! Good contribution, going the extra mile, makes her look less suspicious, which could be a cunning plan. But I had no reason of my own to suspect her before, and I still don't. I thank her for that post!

Mac: good first post. If you're innocent I can accept your explanation for the vote. And point taken about putting my list in late! However, I didn't vote for you the first two days for nothing, and I'm still watching you. May go through posts again to see if I can find more to support my gut, because if you are a wraith, and Fea is Ferny, I'd be more disposed to get rid of a wraith. I just think Fea may be more obvious right now.

Menel: waaaaaay under the rader - could be anything at all. Like Sally.

Rikae: strikes me as innocent still. Or VERY devious. Possible.

Brinn: Got nothing on her except her reputation as being a wraith when people have nothing on her.

Greenie: also under the radar (at least, my radar - I'd forgot to add her to the list - sorry Greenie!) Hasn't done anything since yesterday to make me suspect her more than I did.


Am I forgetting someone? Yes, Fea...


So it looks like the question of the day is this: is Fea really guilty?

I'm going to try to break it down a bit.

Well, I didn't suspect Fea yesterDay, though others did, obviously more aware of her apparent guiles than I. When Fea asked about Rikae's seer-joke it didn't seem suspicious to me, because, well, I did it too. Not so good for me. But I still don't find that particular incident suspicious. Not that I would know, I suppose.

People agreed about Fea's guilt to varying extents. But there was argument over why:


Nog's death could affect Fea in (at least) two ways:

1. It places more suspicion on the other Dury the Innocent voters, because Nog was innocent, so surely one or more of the other voters was guilty? And Fea stands out, having (I gather) a reputation; being the first to vote.

2. Since Nog was wrong, and he was a good guy, then maybe the other Dury voters are good guys too.

My initial reaction was that the other voters became even more suspicious, especially since, although he pointed out Dury's IC comments, Nog was the last to vote, and even considered voting for Fea himself. So the Dury bandwagon wasn't necessarily all his doing.

Option 2 is possible as well, but the real question is which conclusion Fea would have counted on people having, were she a wraith?

And if she were Ferny, then do we even know if there's a relation between Nog's death and Fea at all? We've been assuming that Ferny is known by the wraiths. Why? If Fea were Ferny and the wraiths didn't know her, then Nog's death neither makes Fea innocent nor guilty.

Which leaves me very confused.

So what other things make Fea guilty or suspicious?

The fact that Rune stuck up for her, even before it seemed she needed it. This would only apply if Rune was also an evil one.
That her "vote post" may have started a bandwagon.
Claimed to vote Dury to save Mac; also claimed she didn't expect anyone else to vote with her; said (roughly) it didn't hurt to try anyway.
Like Legate said: Fea should not have talked about gifteds (even I knew not to discuss the ranger, or who Frodo might be, even if I reply to Rikae when she called herself the seer in jest).


******


Regarding late voting: to be late, or to be early.

I think it's good to wait till later to see what might develop, so that one doesn't throw one's vote away if it could be used better. The danger, of course, is being accused of jumping on the bandwagon simply because others voted before you. Or of late-night frenzies as we saw last time, with people scrambling to make the deadline (woah, appropriate word), and maybe not having time to think properly.

I'm going to try to vote earlier today. But I have the luxury of not having to go to bed too soon, so I'll watch what happens, just must get mine in before the deadline.



Gaaaaaah, I don't know if I'll read the rest of the posts tonight.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Beregond

(even I knew not to discuss the ranger, or who Frodo might be, even if I reply to Rikae when she called herself the seer in jest).

Repeat after me, kids: "If something exists, it is fair game to discuss."

Rikae -> Fea
Lily -> Fea
Lommy -> Sally
Aganzir -> Fea
Legate -> Fea
Rune -> Mac
Mac -> Lari
Nerwen -> Fea
Mirandir -> Rune
Menel -> Mac
Lari -> Mac

Fea 5, Mac 3, Sally 1, Lari 1, Rune 1

++Mac

*feels heart break just a wee bit*

I didn't want to do that, but I also don't want to die.

So now-

Rikae -> Fea
Lily -> Fea
Lommy -> Sally
Aganzir -> Fea
Legate -> Fea
Rune -> Mac
Mac -> Lari
Nerwen -> Fea
Mirandir -> Rune
Menel -> Mac
Lari -> Mac
Fea -> Mac

Fea 5, Mac 4, Sally 1, Lari 1, Rune 1

[Beregond]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Repeat after me, kids: "If something exists, it is fair game to discuss."

Um, no, I don't buy that... sorry, Fea, you'll have to convince some already-voteds if you want to stick around.


++Fea


My reasons: Some are listed in my previous post. Although I'm very tempted to vote for Mac, I don't think he's the most obvious choice toDay - nor do I think that vote could be swung, now - though if a wraith he would be a better choice, if Fea wasn't looking so guilty.

Even if Fea is innocent we'll have a better idea of where some people stand, once we know her role. In fact if she's innocent it would look pretty bad for a few... but I don't think that's the case (and wouldn't vote for her if I thought so).

Unfortunately if she's the cobbler we won't be certain that wraiths didn't vote against her - both with the sacrifice theory and the fact that Ferny and Wraiths may not know each other.

But I've weighed the options, time will judge!


By the way, where is everyone? I guess people go to bed earlier on the weekdays? I thought this would be another late night post-party. Kinda glad it isn't.

[Nerwen]

And now Mac is back in the running... and, equally, knowing his role would cast light on Fea's.

So... do I retract and vote the possible wraith instead of the probable Ferny?

By the way, I wasn't thinking clearly before: actually, one of Mac's possible wolf-slips, if that's what they were, was that he seemed to know that the wraiths knew Ferny's identity. I can't find the quote, though.

X'd since Brinniel and Beregond.

[Nerwen]

And then, of course, what does Fea's voting Mac, but defending him previously, signify? If she's the cobbler, then it seems she's only guessing at the wolves' identity. Besides, I really don't know how they would have communicated.

My head hurts.

[Beregond]

I know, it's a tough call.

I think only Sally hasn't voted. And you can expect Mac to change his vote from Lari if needed (I was surprised he didn't go for Fea, because he seemed to think her guilty enough).

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Brinn on Day1

ToDay I will not vote for:
Legate (got lynched early last game he was in)
Rikae (I think it's been a while since she's played)
Nogrod (I helped get him lynched last game and I don't think he'll ever forgive me if I vote for him on Day 1 again )
Beregond (newbie)
Mirandir (newbie)
Meneltarmacil (I'm tired of seeing him always die so early in the game)
Durelin (I don't recall her playing for awhile)

It would be so easy for her to slip a fellow in here... you know, my ww experience tells me there's probably a fellow of hers here, but on the other hand, it would be actually smarter of her not to put any fellows there... so I should just ignore this list even though it kind of haunts me.

I think Rune and Brinn's fight looks a bit too ugly for a staged wolf-on-wolf. (Or is it actually so ugly it can't be real? Hmmm...)

Originally Posted by Menel

Oh well. Nogrod, Aganzir, and Brinniel all seem to be making sense to me thus far and I'm not voting for them.

Hmmm I'd actually have another look at Menel, possibly.

Originally Posted by Rikae

At the risk of reminding everyone of the infamous Legate-wagon from the last game:
Brinn's worrying me a bit, too. It's not the defensiveness; innocents can be very defensive, sometimes more than wolves (call it righteous indignation, I guess) - it's the fact that she's encouraging Frodo to play in such a way as to make a more useful addition to the wraith team.

Joining the chorus of Brinn-suspectors with new evidence at this point makes her look really innocent.

Lari forgot Brinn from a list of hers which points to her being an innocent or an extra sneaky wolf. It makes me feel better about her.

Originally Posted by Rikae

On another note, perhaps we should just lynch Sally. Every time I read one of her posts, I get stuck in this loop of "She looks so evil! But she's just being Sally! But she looks SOOO evil! But she always looks evil!" - very distracting, at least.

Would a wolf-Rikae say this about a wolf-sally? I don't think it would even occur to her, probably...

Gandhi and Mira worry me a little. I would not be surprised to have one newbie wolf in this game. But actually Gandhi looks better because he was not sure that Rikae was unserious, if he was a wolf, he'd have known she's joking because he'd have known Mac's not a wolf.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Rune: Of course I don't like how he's attacked me, but he's always had this negative attitude towards me and while yesterDay it was more intense than I ever recall it being, I don't think it necessarily points to guilt. If anything, it's more likely innocent behaviour, but then again I've never seen Rune play a wolf so I honestly don't know how he would behave as one.

I think this more or less exonerates Rune - I don't see the point in a wolf-on-wolf fight that ends so easily and is not about suspicion but about being offended of each other's comments.

Originally Posted by Brinn

The List:
Suspicious
Sally
Fea
Greenie
Watching
Legate
Nerwen
Aganzir
No Clue
Lari
Mira
Rikae
Beregond
Mac
Menel
Innocent
Lommy
Nogrod
Durelin

This makes me feel better about Greenie. I don't think it's probable Brinn would put both her fellows to the same - and most suspicious! - category so early in the game (Day2).

I wonder if an Aganwolf would go on and do an exonerating analysis of Brinnwolf...?

If someone's a wolf in the Dury-wagon, I think it's Mira.

I have an idea or two about Frodo's identity, but I'm not sharing them, at least not now.


edit: xed with Legate

[Aganzir]

Grr Brinn I will never ever trust you again no matter how innocent you look!

I'm happy Mac is revealed innocent because it makes my life a lot easier. Or actually it doesn't because I just came up with an uncomfortable scenario. But at least he isn't a wraith.

Greenie's assuring she believes Lommy's claim for now looks a bit weird. I don't know, it's just the way she systematically brings up things; Lommy would be a bold wolf to do that, but then again... Today would be the perfect time to impersonate the seer, but then again... She could be Ferny, but then again... And in the end she kind of apologies for trying to make us feel worse about Lom.

Originally Posted by Green

I'm inclined to believe Lommy's claim for now. I just want to turn every stone and check through every possibility, just in case.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, possibly the wraiths thought they had such a good line to Frodo that it was worth ignoring you

That wouldn't make sense. I think it'd be more important to kill the seer first and concentrate on finding Frodo only afterwards. Either the wolves didn't figure she was the seer or had a reason to leave her alive, which seems unlikely given that she was suspecting at least two of them.

I'll make the case against Mira again at some point. Not right now because I don't have enough time, but during this day.
I'd also like to have a look at Lari.

As for yesterday...

While it's true Fea's innocence looks bad for Rikae and Legate, also Fea looked quite evil, so for now I'm not going to hold it against them.

Originally Posted by Mira

If you can't come up with a valid justification for a vote, then don't make one.

And if you don't vote for two days in a row, you get modkilled. I think a random vote is better than to risk getting killed the following day if something happens that keeps you from voting.

Argh I should probably just go take a nap or I'll be totally useless also later.
The good thing is, though, that today was my last schoolday (now there are only some exams left, the most important of which are not even close yet). This means I'll be much less stressed and might actually have time to play properly.

Now I want to have a quick look at the previous days' voting.