T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, good thing Rikae took the heat off the actual Ranger last night.

I'm actually glad i *hic* mished the *hic* banter lasht time. Shhuch thingsh make my head hurt.

I don't have a lot of time, sho I'll jusht vote now, retracting if *hic* necceshary.

++Mirandir

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Why do you vote for Mirandir, any reason at all?

[Beregond]

I'm trying to read and respond while watching the Super Bowl, but I'm being bothered, giving me a headache and making it impossible to concentrate. I'm here and reading though.

[Meneltarmacil]

Mostly, I considered Legate to be trustworthy based on his posts making sense to me throughout the game, and he had narrowed it down to either Aganzir or Mirandir. Agan had struck me as not really suspicious earlier this game, so I voted for Mirandir.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Mostly, I considered Legate to be trustworthy based on his posts making sense to me throughout the game, and he had narrowed it down to either Aganzir or Mirandir. Agan had struck me as not really suspicious earlier this game, so I voted for Mirandir.

Hmm, well, even if you are making that an easy basis for yourself (and I am honoured), you could have waited because as you see, I have reevaluated a bit. And in either case, I won't put that just on me, as even I could have made a mistake.

One question, Menel, for I am never capable to figure it out when you do things like that in games. Is it so that you were in some generally not-very-clearly-decided state and so then just adjusted your pick on whom to vote according to my suspect list?

[Aganzir]

Greenie: Lari
Menel: Mira
Rune: Greenie
Legate: Lari

Lari-2, Mira-1, Greenie-1

Six votes still to come.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ah well... is there anybody around still? I am trying to use some of the time for doing whatever good things I can so late at night, but slowly I am getting exhausted. Is anybody going to post in some reasonable time?

[Aganzir]

I'm here and I'm just debating myself whether I should take a look at Greenie's posts now, but it's soon 4am so I don't know. However I don't have an exam tomorrow so I can sleep as long as I want to.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm here and I'm just debating myself whether I should take a look at Greenie's posts now, but it's soon 4am so I don't know. However I don't have an exam tomorrow so I can sleep as long as I want to.

Lucky you. But hey, I can do that too. (That looking at the posts.) Not sure how well I'll be able to do that at this hour, but at least briefly, once again...

[Aganzir]

Go ahead. Let's see if we reach the same conclusions.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Mac

You're wasting effort you could use looking for wraiths, and I think you do it deliberately.

Nope I don't think I'm wasting anything, I've been making cases against people I find suspicious and just suspect you besides them.

Originally Posted by Mac

Your assumption that I'm the cobbler leads you to assume that Legate is evil.

No again. Those two things just seem to back each other up. See, looking at day 1 he was behaving in a way that indicated he was a wraith talking to the presumed Ferny. That had nothing to do with you being or not being Ferny, it was the way he reacted to your Fernyish comments.

Originally Posted by Mac

And who is talking about it most?

I wouldn't be if I didn't have a reason to.

Originally Posted by Mac

He said tend! Sheesh!

Yeah he tends to trust the cobbler.

Originally Posted by Mac

statements like these just encourage them to keep me alive and have you waste a lynch!

As if they didn't have a reason to keep you alive.

Originally Posted by Mac

Is there a reason why would it fit a Legatewolf especially or is this a generic statement to make somebody look bad?

My thoughts ran along the lines of Legate killing the only person to suspect him that far. Yes it could look bad on him (as it did) but Rikae can be very persistent and therefore quite dangerous, as you should know.

Originally Posted by Mac

Does it even occur to you anymore that I could be neither??

Yes for some reason it occurred to me you might not be a wolf... But I haven't considered for a while the possibility that you are actually an ordo. Your behaviour speaks for you.

Originally Posted by Mac

And in case you don't know, but the best way to not let any cobbler help the wolves win - is to lynch the wolves before s/he gets a chance to!

Yes and I was saying that if we can't come up with any really good wraith suspects, we should lynch you! However I hope we've pinned at least one, if not the both, of them, so you need not worry. You'll survive but you're just going to lose.

Originally Posted by Mac

A cobbler counts as an innocent, so his life can even make the village win.

No, the only thing that can make the village win is the death of the last wolf. The cobbler's life (and vote) can only help the wolves.

Originally Posted by Mac

Also, since the cobbler's knowledge is limited (and even though the wraiths might know his identity, I think it's very unlikely he knows all of theirs) his vote might unintentionally lynch a wraith.

Poor cobbler! Did the wraiths see fit to keep him in the dark about things?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

That sounds reasonable but for one thing - the ranger didn't protect Lommy the night after her reveal, which means basically that s/he assumed the wolves would assume that s/he'd protect Lommy and decide not to attack her.

Keep in mind that the ranger might not have been able to protect her because he did so the night before. In that case, it is not clear whether the ranger protected me the night Lommy died, or, expecting Lommy to be dead by then, saved me for last night. It would be too cool, though, if the ranger could still protect me this night. *crosses fingers*


I see that Aganzir still continues to go after me. You're wasting effort you could use looking for wraiths, and I think you do it deliberately. You're even aware of it, as you stated several times. However, as you yourself said, just because somebody admits something, it doesn't make it better. I used to think it was just a quirk of yours to go after me no matter what, but now I'm starting to wonder whether there is some strategy behind it this time. I really hope I'll find time to have another look at you toDay at last.


I'd like to add my name to the list of people who think the way Lari goes after Rune is weird. She's confusing me and I don't know what to think of her anymore.


Now I reached Agan's analysis of Legate. Agan, if you're innocent, then you're really on a dangerous track toDay. Your assumption that I'm the cobbler leads you to assume that Legate is evil. I have the strong feeling this will end in the death of two innocents yet again. (It also reminds me of Legate's mad Day3 pursuit of Fea and me.) Snap out of it, please. You're too valuable to the village if objective.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

If Mac is the cobbler, the wolves certainly know about it. It doesn't matter that he's a known so-called innocent. He works as a distraction - see, here we are, talking about him and arguing if he should be lynched, when we should be looking for wolves.

And who is talking about it most?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It's enough for him that Mac is not a wraith - he's in Legate's I tend to trust category. No it isn't enough!

He said tend! Sheesh!

Originally Posted by Aganzir

There's so little time left that unless we have very good reasons to assume someone's a wolf tomorrow, we should lynch Mac. Really.

This is wraith talk, or Ferny talk at the very least. Yes, I did say it myself that if I keep on staying alive you can just lynch me, but please, statements like these just encourage them to keep me alive and have you waste a lynch! You're preparing the field for it!

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It would just fit a Legatewolf who wants to survive.

Is there a reason why would it fit a Legatewolf especially or is this a generic statement to make somebody look bad?


Menel keeps on baffling me.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And at this point it doesn't matter if he's a cobbler, not a wraith, he should die before he gets to help the wolves win.

Does it even occur to you anymore that I could be neither?? And in case you don't know, but the best way to not let any cobbler help the wolves win - is to lynch the wolves before s/he gets a chance to! If we're completely clueless one Day, it might be a reasonable idea to lynch a presumed cobbler, but on any other occasion, it's idiotic. If we lynch two wraiths, we win. If we lynch the cobbler and one wraith, we lose.

Originally Posted by Beregond

I still have suspicions of Mac as Ferny. But I'm trying to decide if it would be better to vote him now if so, or try for a possible wraith. At first I thought it made sense to go after wraiths, but now I'm not so sure.

Whether or not to lynch a known(!) cobbler is actually almost a philosophical question in WW. A cobbler counts as an innocent, so his life can even make the village win. Plus, lynching him means forgoing a chance to lynch a wraith. On the other hand, the cobbler has a vote, and that can mess up some things - especially late in the game. He can also prove to be somewhat of a distraction. Also, since the cobbler's knowledge is limited (and even though the wraiths might know his identity, I think it's very unlikely he knows all of theirs) his vote might unintentionally lynch a wraith.


A last thought about Aganzir: Would a wraith really be so determined to get a quasi-known innocent lynched? They would surely try it (and it's easy to do so right now, as it's reasonable to suspect me of cobblerdom, however slightly), but like this? The real cobbler, however, s/he could get the idea that getting me lynched is worth dying for. I really need a clearer picture of Aganzir.

[Aganzir]

On day 1 Greenie wondered if Frodo's role is revealed if xe gets lynched. She said it would sound ideal if no one discovered Frodo's identity, and we should concentrate on finding the wraiths, not the RB. She voted for Gollum as she felt the worst about him.

On day 2 she accused Nog of making the day 1 votes such an issue. I can agree with her, Nog was strange. In #247 she thought Brinn looked innocent and had no read on sally. The whole list was quite close to my own opinions.
Brinn found her suspiciously careful & was worried about her. I don't think she would've treated a fellow who wasn't suspected almost at all like that.
She voted for Nog, which is alright with me.

Greenie started to get a bad feeling about Lari on day 3. Me too. She still found Brinn okay & had no read on sally. Voted Fea. Understandable.

Then day 4, after Frodo was turned.

Greenie said that the easiest thing to do about the Fea bandwagon would be to look at the people who were for it the most, ie Rikae and Legate, but she expressed doubts about a wolf being so loudly for an innocent's lynching. She added that we should look for people who go with the flow.
As for Frodo, she said it's important we compare people's posts to their posts on the previous days.

I'm still uncomfortable with the way Greenie says she believes Lommy's claim. She repeats things - says twice she's inclined to believe Lommy's claim for now, with almost exactly the same phrasing. Also, she suggests a thing but takes it back instantly, in a way: Lommy would be a very bold wolf as she'd lose two of her fellows, but then again Frodo is a wolf now... Today would be the perfect time to impersonate the seer, but then again it wouldn't make sense... She could be Ferny, but then again it doesn't seem very likely... And in the end Greenie half aplogizes, half explains why she was so eager to cast some random suspicion which she took back so that all that was left was a vague bad feeling that Lommy might not be the seer, after all:

Originally Posted by Greenie

I'm inclined to believe Lommy's claim for now. I just want to turn every stone and check through every possibility, just in case.

Day 5. She said Legate seemed very innocent. If they're fellows, that's a bold thing to do. Also, she found it more likely that Mac was innocent than Ferny.

Then there's her Menel analysis. She brings up valid points against him, but at the same time it seems somehow too easy. Menel almost always comes across as suspicious, and Greenie seems to be making too much into things. Exaggerating.

Today the people she did not find specifically innocentish were Lari (flip-flopping on her), Mira (no read), Nerwen (no read), and Menel (somewhat suspicious, might vote in lack of better suspects).

She wondered why Mac hadn't died and reached the conclusion it's possible he's Ferny. If she's a wolf & Mac is Ferny, she could probably have found a way to hint the wolves thought Mac was protected or wanted to leave him alive for confusion's sake. However, if he is not the cobbler, it's reasonable for a Greenwolf to say so.

She said she didn't want to vote for Menel today if he couldn't defend himself. In a way I can understand her, but at the same time I think that at this stage we should vote for our primary suspects.
In the end she voted for Lari.

**

I think she looked quite innocent up until Frodo was turned, but right after that she made some eyebrow-raising comments. Today she has looked more innocentish again. Garr I don't know! It could also be that she's got more used to being a wolf again and that's why the change for the better in her behaviour...

++Greenie

Right now I suspect her more than Lari and I don't want to start spreading the votes by voting for Legate. Also, if she's a wolf, then I'm pretty positive Legate is one, too. It would just make sense.

edit: xed with Nerwen & two Menels. Good catch about the bells ringing.

[Macalaure]

Aganzir makes many posts and long ones. A long time ago I told myself not to thoroughly analyse people who talk this much, since I found out it is strongly detrimental to my mental health. Therefore, here's the brief Aganzir now.

On Day1 she's one of those suggesting that Frodo might want to be turned, which of course could be interpreted as a suggestion. She casts a random vote for Lari. She explains it with being tired, which is an RL reason which one should not attack usually, but I still find it remarkable how one can be so tired to not remember who one found suspicious before and who not. Then again, an evil Aganzir would probably not need such excuses.

On Day2 she's a bit undecided about the later kill Nogrod but he's her top suspect. Would that more or less reason for her to kill him? Not sure. Brinn and Sally are in nowhere land. She makes a Brinn-analysis and finds her innocent. She votes for me.

Day3:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I don't know why but Mira has started to bother me a little. I might want to read through her posts when I have time.
And now I read Lari's summary and it's the same with her.
I am also getting a bad feeling about Rune. He annoys me & doesn't make sense. Okay, it might be because he was drunk yesterday but still.

To be honest I have no idea why you ended up lynching Durelin. Mira's vote (or the reasoning for it) seems the most suspicious to me but I need to read her posts before forming a proper opinion.

This comment is not only self-contradicting (I don't know why she bothers me - her vote is suspicious), but also very, very fishy.

She later decides to defend Rune (she will keep on finding Rune innocent). She also makes a comment against Brinn and made a deleted analysis of Miri and found her suspicious (the next day she'll re-analyse and change her mind). She joins the Fea-waggon.

Day4:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Brinn's way of revealing looks more honest compared to Lommy (...), but I trust Lommy more.

It's not that she wonders who of the two lies, it's again the carefulness behind it that makes me suspicious. Later, however, she supports Lommy.

On Day5 she analyses Lari and concludes that she might be Frodo. I agree that she's suspicious, but I don't know how Aganzir ended up with Frodo here. It makes little sense at this point (it makes more with the *later* inclusion of Brinn). Funny how Miri ended up being guilty again in #762.

On Day6 she starts losing her objectivity and goes after me. A "Btw, be aware that he could be the cobbler, too" is reasonable, but she goes overboard.

The first two days aren't very suspicious. The third day, however, looks like a cobbler not knowing what to do with the death of Durelin. She could have figured out that Fea was probably not a wraith and therefore a good target, but her behaviour towards Rune and Lari especially is very careful (she reached different conclusions for the two later and also keeps changing her mind / forgetting about Miri). Unfortunately, that's all. She probably *is* innocent and just extremely misguided concerning me (that's why I lost interest in going into more detail on the last two days). Ah, well...

[Macalaure]

Lily -> Lari
Menel -> Miri
Rune -> Lily
Legate -> Lari
Nerwen -> Lily
Menel -- Miri -> Lily
Agan -> Lily

A Little Green 4, Lariren 2


If you ask me, the case against A Little Green is made of thin air. I certainly suspect Lari enough to vote for her, but the fact that Lari is still left to vote and Lily isn't gives me a bad feeling about toDay's lynch.

++Lariren Shadow

[Lariren Shadow]

Legate: This is my second game. I was really just looking for someone who would be a suspect that the wolves could have thought of for lynching Rikae. Because, even this late in the game, it was sort of a blameless kill to me. I really still don't know a lot of things, see my thinking Ferny isn't a cobbler speech.

Ok, I really didn't like Greenie's vote for me. Not because it was for me, but because she didn't want to vote me but did? I don't like it. And not just because it was for me and it seems like its between me and her right now, but because, well, it seems like a really bad reason.

Ok on to another list:

Stick(Miri): Hasn't said much today. But then again she also said that she was doing things like playing with clay and watching the Super Bowl. I really don't think she's guilty. But I could be wrong.

Legate: I really have no idea how to think of him. I read through a few of his posts and he seems innocent but then I read through the next few and I get the feeling he's being very careful to manipulate and convince people which makes me think wolf/wraith. I really don't think I want to vote for him, but I'm honestly not sure.

Agan: Has been doing long posts of explinations and such, which is sort of reminding me of her in the last game where she was innocent. But I get the same feeling form her that I do from Legate, though for her it's generally me thinking she's innocent more than guilty.

Beregond: Seems innocent enough. That's really all, sorry you don't get more.

Nerwen: Really no idea, but more innocent.

Rune: I still don't like most of his posts. But he seems to explain a little after each. Not sure if I want to vote for him though.

Mac: Is a known innocent and I wouldn't vote for him.

Menel: I hope you got it right. I really don't think he looks guilty at all. He seems more innocent to me. Actually, probably the most innocent to me.

Greenie: I really didn't like her vote. Really at all. And for the reasons above, not because it was for me. It just seemed...odd.

So, for all the reasons in this post and, yes, in a way to save myself, I admit it:

++Greenie

[Lariren Shadow]

Votes are:
Greenie -> Lari
Menel -> Stick
Rune -> Greenie
Legate -> Lari
Nerwen -> Greenie
Menel -- Stick -> Greenie
Agan -> Greenie
Mac -> Lari
Lari -> Greenie

Greenie 5, Lari 3

Left to vote:
Stick
Beregond

[Mirandir]

All right Lari, enough with the Stick thing. I know you love it but it's just not gonna work outside of the library.

I'm tired and still have a bunch of work do to before we close in 18 minutes, and don't really have time to justify my vote well, but here it is anyway.

++Lari

Of all the people left, she seems the most suspicious and wraith-like.

Epic fail on my part, I know.

[Kitanna]

Time. Greenie's death to follow in moments.

[Kitanna]

Outside the rains came pouring down on Bree. The villagers decided to hold their meeting indoors. After previous day's shouting the village seemed rather quiet. But in spite of the silence a consensus was reached. Greenie would have to go. Lari was a close second, but by day's end the ex-bear tamer was to be the one to go.

Afraid of death, especially at the hands of this village Greenie decided to make a run for it. She broke free from the crowd and ran for the inn's door. What a shame for Greenie someone had carelessly discarded their banana peel after lunch.

She tripped and slide. Desperately Greenie tried to catch her balance, but she was unable. Greenie slipped and fell, hitting her head on the bar as she went down. Her skull cracked and blood seeped onto the floor. Someone might have been able to save her, but since it was commonly believed she was a wraith no one bothered.

That was too bad. Greenie was as innocent as they come. Her death was in vain. For playing a part in an innocent's death the banana peel was tried and sentenced to death by being put on the rack.

Living
Lariren Shadow
Mirandir
Legate of Amon Lanc
Aganzir
Beregond
Nerwen
Rune Son of Bjarne
Macalaure
Meneltarmacil

Dead
Kitanna – Made an example of Night 1 (moddess)
Gollum the Great – Eaten by hogs Day 1 (innocent)
Shastanis Althreduin – Forced to swallow a sword Night 2 (innocent)
Durelin – Hanged on Day 2 (innocent)
Nogrod – Disemboweled and hanged by own intestines Night 3 (innocent)
Feanor of the Peredhil – Hoed to death Day 3 (innocent)
Brinniel – Set on fire and turned into Mrs. Lovett Day 4 (wraith)
Thinlómien – Brain forcibly removed and made into a treat Night 5 (Butterbur)
satansaloser2005 – Brained by Rune Day 5 (wraith)
Rikae – Skinned alive Night 6 (innocent)
A Little Green – Slipped on a banana peel Day 6 (innocent)

[Beregond]

Well, I'm going to go against my initial instinct on this one and vote

++Greenie

My instincts have been been wrong so far, so I'm making a rash decision instead. But not random. The arguments for Greenie being Frodo hold weight, and Lari's been less suspicious the last day. I hope my choice tonight is correct for once.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right, now, if Agan's analysis made me think anything, it's that she is innocent.

So it's Lari, Mira, or (in brackets as I would like to hear more from him) Menel.

And if you are innocent, Agan, trust me that I am not stupid.

Okay, now let's see if I can reply to some of Agan's countless questions when I am at it...

Originally Posted by Agan

I wonder what to make of Legate writing twice Barney instead of Barliman. Both times, he was talking about Frodo and "Barney's" ability to tell about xem to the ranger.

And what do you think you should make out of it?

Legate suggested that Frodo should not reveal unless xe is under direct threat of dying. That would be a very convenient way for a wolf to react to talks about Frodo's possible reveal.

We are again at this topic, what more, it's a dead topic now (or rather, undead topic). So let's not start on that, sufficient to say, this is what I think is (or was) best for the innocents. I said it dozen times: Frodo should stay put, if he thinks he's under a threat, reveal. What you suggested on first Days seemed like much worse plans to me. But that's a difference of opinions, I believe.

However the most interesting thing is that he had been consistently suspicious of Mac being a wraith, but now he didn't even seem to pay a thought to the possibility of him being Ferny. He said Mac looked still horribly sinister, but he was a known innocent now etc.
Okay, he mentioned the idea of Mac being Ferny, but that was probably more due to the general pressure as Rikae and me were quite inclined to think so. He never pursued the idea any further, though.

Oh but I did, and I think I even said that, even after that. Certainly, I was among the first ones to think Mac is a Cobbler on the first Days. However, I will repeat it again, he is a mere Cobbler (and we are not even completely sure about that). Not a Wraith.

Legate was also quick to encourage the idea of sally being Frodo.

Yep, after reading her post, it seemed logical to me, I thought the way she revealed was genuine. I compared it to other things and it seemed to make sense to me. Of course, it was proven to be otherwise.

It's enough for him that Mac is not a wraith - he's in Legate's I tend to trust category. No it isn't enough! If you trust the cobbler, you trust a person who's deliberately giving false information and twisting things, and therefore contribute to our loss.

Well, like I said, and especially back then, nobody made it sure that he actually is a Cobbler. This subsumed both the idea that he is a known innocent (non-Wraith) AND eventually, okay, he may be a Cobbler, but even that is not definite.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Well, good thing Rikae took the heat off the actual Ranger last night.

Could somebody translate the meaning of this to me, please??

And Menel, is that all you have to say? I, for one (and I believe there are others as well) hoped to see more from you, once you are here...

[Macalaure]

Sorry for my absence so far toDay. At least I'll be here now probably up until the deadline.

*goes to read thread*

[Aganzir]

Menel, if you're around, you could as well reply to Greenie's accusations.

Originally Posted by Legate

And what do you think you should make out of it?

I don't know. I wondered about it and decided to mention it although I have no idea if you were just sloppy or if it had a deeper meaning.

Originally Posted by Legate

Certainly, I was among the first ones to think Mac is a Cobbler on the first Days. However, I will repeat it again, he is a mere Cobbler (and we are not even completely sure about that). Not a Wraith.

I think you suspected him of being a wraith, not the cobbler. And at this point it doesn't matter if he's a cobbler, not a wraith, he should die before he gets to help the wolves win.
Also, you suspected him really heavily back then. Now, it's likely he is the cobbler, but you don't care about him anymore. Why?

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am about to colaps in front of the computer. . .so unless somebody comes up with a good case that I can join, I will be voting for Menel.

He often acts the way he has done so far and is what I would consider an easy victim, but I doubt I will be able to come up with anything right now.

I know he answered my question about why he voted the way he did, but it is the same kind of reasoning as always and it is almost impossible to analyze.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I don't know. I wondered about it and decided to mention it although I have no idea if you were just sloppy or if it had a deeper meaning.

It was a short nickname.

I think you suspected him of being a wraith, not the cobbler.

Oh yes, true. Well, anyway, I suspected him, and it just sort of swung into this.

Also, you suspected him really heavily back then. Now, it's likely he is the cobbler, but you don't care about him anymore. Why?

Well, it's just that I want to focus on the Wraiths right now. If you say I am silly by not giving any care to him, then I think you are silly by putting too much emphasis on him. But that's fine, I understand what you mean. However, just think of what I mean.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

It was a short nickname.

Which just happened to be the same as Mac's character name?

Originally Posted by Legate

If you say I am silly by not giving any care to him, then I think you are silly by putting too much emphasis on him.

I can't for the life in me see why an innocent you would want to ignore the cobbler this late in the game.

Rune could you consider voting for Legate or Greenie? They are the people I'd prefer to see dead.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Rune could you consider voting for Legate or Greenie? They are the people I'd prefer to see dead.

I have been considering it for a few hours, but I really think that tomorrow will reveal alot to me about the 3 of you.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Which just happened to be the same as Mac's character name?

What?

Okay, honestly, I haven't thought about that

I can't for the life in me see why an innocent you would want to ignore the cobbler this late in the game.

I am not going to ignore him toMorrow. But of course the best thing to do now is to ignore him. Mac was not around all day, but he is here and hopefully will be posting. Don't you want to see what he will post?