WWLVIII: Escape From Angband (or Behavioral Modification) - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Mithalwen · 03-27-2009, 05:15 PM

Nine people, four seer proved innocents, maybe 6.
But at least 2 ducks and not clear if Gwath saw exact role rather than non-duck. There is another killer out there who may be working on own account.

Also given that we had a guardian amd seer as well as misc. other roles, chances are there is also the other of the classic gifted trio - a hunter. Now if so and the hunter is non-logical or lynched... then we may not have so much scope for getting today wrong despite our success to date.

I am inclined to not vote Lari due to Mac's analysis ... so that leaves me more or less with a coin toss....

I will be consistent:

++Durelin

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 05:36 PM

I am not sure what to think of Izzy's claim. The detail of her claim is convincing, but... How do you know what Nilp is...?

If we've apparently narrowed it down to myself, Nerwen, and Lari, I am inclined to go with Lari because I believe Nerwen's vote for Nienna on Day 3 speaks in her favour of her because Nienna was under quite a bit of suspicion (especially after wilwa being eliminated mid-day).

But then Kath's consistency Day 2 and 3 against Lari is a problem. Both times she voted early, giving Lari her first vote.

A question, though...if indeed everyone is specifically a "known" innocent except for myself, Lari, and Nerwen, and there are 9 of us left (?)...isn't this game over...unless there is in fact a growing flock?

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nog

Although I must admit Dury's track record is almost frighteningly consistent!

How so? That I tended to stick with suspects? I usually do, I'm just usually wrong. I have done surprisingly well, yes (I have been quite surprised myself! normally I manage to vote for the seer at some point and never a wolf), but I think most of us have done well, haven't we, seeing how many ducks have been in some manner killed?

Nogrod · 03-27-2009, 05:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Durelin

But then Kath's consistency Day 2 and 3 against Lari is a problem. Both times she voted early, giving Lari her first vote.

Making a duck-on-duck is safer if you make it early...

Quote:

A question, though...if indeed everyone is specifically a "known" innocent except for myself, Lari, and Nerwen, and there are 9 of us left (?)...isn't this game over...unless there is in fact a growing flock?

The game ends when the number of ducks is equal or surpasses thew number of innocents - not the orther way around, dearie.

But not necessarily in a more serious note either. To be honest, I don't believe it would be that simple: even if all you three were dead I'm afraid we'd not be ridden ourselvers of evil around. But using Gwath's dreams as aids to limit our choices toDay I think is a good idea. And the added limitation of taking Izzy's role for granted and thence her note on Nilp looks believable enough to guide me toDay. But that is toDay.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dury

I am inclined to go with Lari because I believe Nerwen's vote for Nienna on Day 3 speaks in her favour of her because Nienna was under quite a bit of suspicion (especially after wilwa being eliminated mid-day).

Interestingly enough the three of you - Nerwen, Izzy & Dury - were instrumental in getting Nienna lynched... You basically did that.

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nog

The game ends when the number of ducks is equal or surpasses thew number of innocents - not the orther way around, dearie.

My point was that we have three days to lynch one or two remaining wolves if indeed everyone else except us three is a known innocent. But, they're not.

Nogrod · 03-27-2009, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Durelin

My point was that we have three days to lynch one or two remaining wolves if indeed everyone else except us three is a known innocent. But, they're not.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Me, in the post you just quoted

But not necessarily in a more serious note either. To be honest, I don't believe it would be that simple: even if all you three were dead I'm afraid we'd not be ridden ourselvers of evil around. But using Gwath's dreams as aids to limit our choices toDay I think is a good idea.

See?

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 06:26 PM

So I should have done this earlier but needed the time to explain myself fully. I did not find out that Kath was dead and the alpha-duck until the beginning of toDay and I unfortunately have been crazy busy...and was completely unorganized so had to go back through my PMs.

Right. So now that my role no longer has a job...

I am the "Wolf Tracker". Yes, sounds familiar, eh?

No, I am not like a seer (not another one). All I can know is how many wolves there are at a given time. Why would that be useful? Because the numbers in the flock were indeed changing.

On Day 1, there were 4 wolves.

On Day 2, the flock had grown to 5.

On Day 3, the flock was back down to 4, as Lommy was lynched and apparently the alpha-duck was not able to add to the flock (I believe because they either chose Gwath, Mith, Brinn, or the possibly remaining Hunter).

On Day 4 (yesterDay), the flock was down to 3 - they lost 2 during the Day but were back up the three by the end of the Night.

Last Night Kath was killed, and I was notified that the alpha-duck was dead, but apparently she still got her pick through because they are again at 3 toDay.

Yeah, I'm afraid we're not in *quite* as good a boat as we thought we were. But we do know who Gwath dreamt of each Night.

Night 0 - No duck added. Fea dreamt.
Night 1 - A duck added. Nogrod dreamt. Nog was not turned this Night as, since the Night events all happen simultaneously essentially because they all go through unless they cancel each other out, he would have shown up as a wolf if indeed he was turned this Night.
Night 2 - No duck was added. Mac was dreamt.
Night 3 - A duck added. Mith dreamt.
Night 4 - A duck added. Izzy seemed to suggest Nilp was dreamt? If so, then Nilp is the only guaranteed non-wolf, other than Izzy if she's telling the truth, and any remaining gifted(s).

*breathes* Sorry that took me too long!

Macalaure · 03-27-2009, 06:34 PM

That would mean the two ducks we're hunting are the two that were created in Night 3 and 4, which would make all prior dreams useless.

Looks like Fea and Nog are back on the menu, boys.

We can also start thinking about who would have made sense to be turned. Lari, for example, being under much scrutiny and having the role of Kath's scapegoat, looks pretty innocent now.

Macalaure · 03-27-2009, 06:38 PM

If we believe the claims of Izzy and Durelin, then our ducks are Fea, Nogrod, or Nerwen. Mith is a dreamt gifted. Izzy cleared Nilp. Lari is very unlikely.

My feeling says that Fea is the innocent one.

Durelin · 03-27-2009, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mac

Lari, for example, being under much scrutiny and having the role of Kath's scapegoat, looks pretty innocent now

Except she would make a good candidate last Night, if she was consistently suspected by Kath and Lommy, both wolves. Though that almost suggests Kath was aware she would be killed. Bah, I don't know.

Nogrod · 03-27-2009, 07:04 PM

Oh my...

This is getting much too interesting at exactly the moment I thought I was ready for bed as I need to wake up early...

Darn timezones and Saturday exams!

So I'm not even starting the "why should we believe you as there seem to be a host of special goodies revealing in increasing intervals" -thing. Too late and too little time for it toDay. So looking at the details you Dury give, I'm going to buy it. It looks very believable indeed - like Izzy's case looked like.

Looks like a horrible scenario, four initial ducks and their numbers growing all the time if not hindered...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mac

Looks like Fea and Nog are back on the menu, boys.

And you Mac... and Mith as well.

So we went on with the hypothesis of trying to narrow things down toDay and ignore the "added ducks"-theory for a moment. Now who backed that plan or acted on it? Mac, you did. Fea did. Mith did. I did. No surprise there as we were the ones the count would leave out.

But three of them still around? From us nine?

Fea has had three Nights to be added to the ducklist, Mac and I have had two Nights, Mith has had one.

If Izzy (and therefore Nilp) are true, as well as Dury, it would lead to the three ducks being among us four added with Nerwen and Lari. So three out of six. 50-50 chance then...

Needs to think a bit.

EDIT: X'd with a host of posts.

Nogrod · 03-27-2009, 05:58 PM

Okay.

Nerwen failed to vote on Day1.

On Day2 she missed the vote by a minute but the vote was counted - not that it had any bearing as Lommy was lynched with a great majority of votes.

On Day3 she really triggered the Niennawagon.

On Day4 she brought Rikae past Mac and level with Dury to two votes after which the ball started rolling (after my vote to Rikae, Rikae voted for herself and the rest is history).

Were she a duck, she would probably have been sharper in the first two Days - and less sharp in the two last ones.

And she has a planet-sized brain.

03-27-2009, 05:15 PM	#1
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	Nine people, four seer proved innocents, maybe 6. But at least 2 ducks and not clear if Gwath saw exact role rather than non-duck. There is another killer out there who may be working on own account. Also given that we had a guardian amd seer as well as misc. other roles, chances are there is also the other of the classic gifted trio - a hunter. Now if so and the hunter is non-logical or lynched... then we may not have so much scope for getting today wrong despite our success to date. I am inclined to not vote Lari due to Mac's analysis ... so that leaves me more or less with a coin toss.... I will be consistent: ++Durelin __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

03-27-2009, 05:58 PM	#12
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Okay. Nerwen failed to vote on Day1. On Day2 she missed the vote by a minute but the vote was counted - not that it had any bearing as Lommy was lynched with a great majority of votes. On Day3 she really triggered the Niennawagon. On Day4 she brought Rikae past Mac and level with Dury to two votes after which the ball started rolling (after my vote to Rikae, Rikae voted for herself and the rest is history). Were she a duck, she would probably have been sharper in the first two Days - and less sharp in the two last ones. And she has a planet-sized brain. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

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03-27-2009, 05:36 PM	#2
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063	I am not sure what to think of Izzy's claim. The detail of her claim is convincing, but... How do you know what Nilp is...? If we've apparently narrowed it down to myself, Nerwen, and Lari, I am inclined to go with Lari because I believe Nerwen's vote for Nienna on Day 3 speaks in her favour of her because Nienna was under quite a bit of suspicion (especially after wilwa being eliminated mid-day). But then Kath's consistency Day 2 and 3 against Lari is a problem. Both times she voted early, giving Lari her first vote. A question, though...if indeed everyone is specifically a "known" innocent except for myself, Lari, and Nerwen, and there are 9 of us left (?)...isn't this game over...unless there is in fact a growing flock?

03-27-2009, 06:26 PM	#7
Durelin Estelo dagnir, Melo ring Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,063	So I should have done this earlier but needed the time to explain myself fully. I did not find out that Kath was dead and the alpha-duck until the beginning of toDay and I unfortunately have been crazy busy...and was completely unorganized so had to go back through my PMs. Right. So now that my role no longer has a job... I am the "Wolf Tracker". Yes, sounds familiar, eh? No, I am not like a seer (not another one). All I can know is how many wolves there are at a given time. Why would that be useful? Because the numbers in the flock were indeed changing. On Day 1, there were 4 wolves. On Day 2, the flock had grown to 5. On Day 3, the flock was back down to 4, as Lommy was lynched and apparently the alpha-duck was not able to add to the flock (I believe because they either chose Gwath, Mith, Brinn, or the possibly remaining Hunter). On Day 4 (yesterDay), the flock was down to 3 - they lost 2 during the Day but were back up the three by the end of the Night. Last Night Kath was killed, and I was notified that the alpha-duck was dead, but apparently she still got her pick through because they are again at 3 toDay. Yeah, I'm afraid we're not in quite as good a boat as we thought we were. But we do know who Gwath dreamt of each Night. Night 0 - No duck added. Fea dreamt. Night 1 - A duck added. Nogrod dreamt. Nog was not turned this Night as, since the Night events all happen simultaneously essentially because they all go through unless they cancel each other out, he would have shown up as a wolf if indeed he was turned this Night. Night 2 - No duck was added. Mac was dreamt. Night 3 - A duck added. Mith dreamt. Night 4 - A duck added. Izzy seemed to suggest Nilp was dreamt? If so, then Nilp is the only guaranteed non-wolf, other than Izzy if she's telling the truth, and any remaining gifted(s). breathes Sorry that took me too long!

03-27-2009, 06:34 PM	#8
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	That would mean the two ducks we're hunting are the two that were created in Night 3 and 4, which would make all prior dreams useless. Looks like Fea and Nog are back on the menu, boys. We can also start thinking about who would have made sense to be turned. Lari, for example, being under much scrutiny and having the role of Kath's scapegoat, looks pretty innocent now.

03-27-2009, 06:38 PM	#9
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	If we believe the claims of Izzy and Durelin, then our ducks are Fea, Nogrod, or Nerwen. Mith is a dreamt gifted. Izzy cleared Nilp. Lari is very unlikely. My feeling says that Fea is the innocent one.