Game Thread: Werewolf- this time it's real!

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Brinn

I'm somewhat concerned that I find myself agreeing with Kent again... always a bad sign when someone seems to think the way you do in this game... but I'm also not buying this completely. Sorry, Brinn.

My difficulty here is that you voted for Nienna... who was admittedly not the most newbie nor the most silent person present yesterDay, but she had a good smattering of both. Now, I suppose it's possible that you saw/see Nienna as a toughened battle-veteran of WW, and given the amount of noise being made yesterday, I suppose she was in the noisy part of the pack... but still... I'm not entirely convinced.

It seems to me by your reasoning, Kuru would have been a more logical vote than Nienna. He was an old player, he'd done a lot of talking...

Buy it or not, I stick to my own values. I have voted to save these types of players in games where I'm innocent and games where I'm a wolf because I genuinely try to be a fair person regardless of my role. And perhaps you don't agree it's fair, but it's how I feel and that's sometimes how I will vote on Day One, especially since most often I don't suspect anyone that much so early in the game.

Why do you think Kuru would be a more logical vote for me? As an older and more reputable player, I do value him more than a less experienced player. Sure he could be a wolf, but I don't suspect him right now and if he's innocent, he could be quite helpful to the village. I was the last vote of the Day, so it was up to me to decide Kuru and Nienna's fate. I admit I didn't suspect Nienna all that much, but between the two I found her to be more suspicious.

[Kent2010]

It's too overt, basically. Now, a cobbler CAN be deliberate--no doubt about that. It just doesn't make sense on Day 1,
-Formendacil

But maybe it's the best time to be overt, because how seriously do people take Day 1? You said yourself Day 1, on Day 1 is virtually useless, and becomes useful after the fact.

Now, on to a factual error...

And so comes my first big blunder, most likely of many.

I was thinking of the 5-5 tie, and forgot that Agan used one of her bonus votes, so mistakenly thought 5 people voted for Kuru.

[Kent2010]

Oh and...

And Kent: we keep it fair, in terms of saving newbies at the expense of others, by behaving thusly with all new players. Less experienced players get the benefit of the doubt. It doesn't make for fair individual games, but it does balance out in the long haul.
-Fea

Ok, now I get your logic. I disagree, but I understand the reasons, and I could continue to argue about this in circles, but I will just say...for myself, just know I appreciate the courtesy but please I don't need to be coddled. If you find justification to come after me, than come after me, I can take care of myself.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kent2010

I appreciate the courtesy but please I don't need to be coddled. If you find justification to come after me, than come after me, I can take care of myself.

Let it be added that this "benefit of doubt" basically covers the first-timer mainly on Day1. ON Day2 most people are ready to handle the newbie as anyone else.

And sure we have different newbies. I think you need no extra protection. Keep on playing, you do it well.


On a second note. Interesting how Kuru appears very helpful doing an analysis on why Aganzir was killed - but looking at it more closely - how do I get a feeling it's more a post trying to convince us he's no baddie than a post to clarify the reasons behind Agan's death?

Someone questioned why no-one has suspected Kuru toDay. Well I can confess that I still do.

But I'll now try to look at other possibilities as well - and what could be implied if Kuru is a wolf / a cobbler.

[Nogrod]

I'll start with my two cents on Day1 voting.

First I have to say I do dislike both the votes of Nilp and Form. Everyone is granted to like or dislike Day1's as much as they wish, but wrapping one's vote into a joke-paper is plain indecent and cowardish. We are left totally clueless about their votes but they can join the speculation over the other votes - and that is intentional. Very suspicious to me.

Secondly there is this oddly little-discussed mini-bandwagon on Agan. Greenie started with giving a reason for her early vote. Kuru joined the thought understandbly after the little row between him and Agan. Then Fea joined the voting. These were three votes in a row - even if Greenie's vote didn't count in the finally tally her intent was clear.

I'm afraid of Greenie every game I play with her as she has the capability to fool me completely but her vote looks the best of the three.

There was also a bandwagon on Kuru, started by Aganzir. Of those votes I'm still wondering most about Firefoot's "open" declaration of voting Kuru because she thinks Agan is the seer and has already dreamt of Kuru. It really baffles me. That's something an ordo tries to remain silent about.

Then there was that Nienna bandwagon we've already discussed a bit. Interestingly the first voters (after myself that is) eg. Gwath and Sally sticked to saying they suspected Nienna - and the two last ones, namely Izzy & Brinn made a host of reservations how they don't like what they were doing. Sure they had a more decisive position but till I feel a bit uneasy everytime someone says they are having bad feelings about the way they vote. That's something the wolves tend to voice out to make themselves look better.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Good morning, everyone!

Being rather narcissistic in regards to this game, my first reads tend to focus on mentions of my name, so:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'll start with my two cents on Day1 voting.

First I have to say I do dislike both the votes of Nilp and Form. Everyone is granted to like or dislike Day1's as much as they wish, but wrapping one's vote into a joke-paper is plain indecent and cowardish. We are left totally clueless about their votes but they can join the speculation over the other votes - and that is intentional. Very suspicious to me.

Bite me.

Will do a more thorough read now over breakfast. Although I must say one of my suspects did not take the bait. The other did, though. So fun! I love this game sooo much!

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Kent2010

But maybe it's the best time to be overt, because how seriously do people take Day 1? You said yourself Day 1, on Day 1 is virtually useless, and becomes useful after the fact.

Well, I'm willing to leave you the caveat that a cobbler might do such a thing. I just don't see it as at all likely. My difficulty with your theory is that it requires a lot more foreknowledge of what is going to come--and who's who--than a Cobbler is likely to possess. Which is not the say that Kuru could not make an exceptionally smart cobbler--he's no dunce--but we're talking about prescience here. There simply wasn't enough talking going on prior to Kuru being accused of cobblery for him to have identified the wolves. And even if by some miracle he HAD identified them, he'd also have to know all of our characters really well to know how things were going to play out. That's where being a new player is an advantage--Kuru might have me figured backwards and forwards, but not you.

Basically, I just cannot envision a cobbler willfully drawing attention to himself on Day 1, except possibly to just wreak general havoc and leaving us wondering--but that would be a strategic loss to Team Wolf, since this cobbler actually has a one-time power. Far better, it would seem, to wait until he has a chance to use that one-time block and actually save wolfish lives than to throw it away at the beginning on the random chance of havoc.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Comments? Any further possibilities why Aganzir was the target last night?

One hugely important thing that might be involved is that whoever the wolves select as their nighttime kill has the potential, if an ordo, to become the new member of their pack, rather than supper. Granted, it's a one-in-six chance, but at this point in the game, when perhaps none of them are under suspicion, they picked a supper victim who would have the greatest chance of NOT being identified as a potential victim if we all woke up today, and no one was dead.

To put it in other words, perhaps the wolves decided that, if Aganzir was converted to their side, and we woke up today with no one missing from our midst, she'd be the last one we'd look for as a converted new wolf, simply because she had been so conspicuous yesterday, and thus the sort of noisy person that wolves leave around to keep the heat off themselves.

I'm hardly wedded to this, but it's the best theory that offers something rather than just random confusion as the answer--at least to my mind.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

An alternate explanation to the NIGHT kill has already been put forward by Form yesterDAY:

Originally Posted by Formendacil

One hugely important thing that might be involved is that whoever the wolves select as their nighttime kill has the potential, if an ordo, to become the new member of their pack, rather than supper. Granted, it's a one-in-six chance, but at this point in the game, when perhaps none of them are under suspicion, they picked a supper victim who would have the greatest chance of NOT being identified as a potential victim if we all woke up today, and no one was dead.

To put it in other words, perhaps the wolves decided that, if Aganzir was converted to their side, and we woke up today with no one missing from our midst, she'd be the last one we'd look for as a converted new wolf, simply because she had been so conspicuous yesterday, and thus the sort of noisy person that wolves leave around to keep the heat off themselves.

Of course this doesn't detract from other explanations (like us barking up the totally wrong trees!)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Having pressed the 'Submit' button accidentally on the abovementioned post (was absent-minded and thought I was previewing it), I forgot to tack on the statement:

So we should probably look at the ones that escape our attention at this moment (i.e. the quiet ones.) Consulting the post counts:

Under 10: Lari, Green.
Under 20: Sally, Shasta, Brinn.
Under 30: Nilp, Izzy, Gwath.

(I'm not saying that they're all being quiet as a tactic, I acknowledge the existence of RL issues, but I remember winning a game where I used my RL-enforced quietness to my advantage--of course, getting the seer right and using that to my advantage helped, too. )

[Kuruharan]

While I was at work this morning I was pondering why Aganzir was the kill choice last night.

The first and most obvious reason to kill Aganzir is that I am a wolf and the wolves thought they had found the Seer in her pegging me. However, this is impossible in every way because I am not a wolf and besides my ownself nobody knows that better than them. It is possible, perhaps, that they thought she was the Seer who had found Grima, but alas for them and goodie for us (if this is what they thought) they were wrong on both counts.

The second reason why they may have chosen to kill Aganzir is they were trying to set me up. It would seem possible given the fact that Aganzir would turn out innocent that the village would turn on me toDay and I would be lynched. If this is the case it is a bit clumsy but not particularly dangerous to the wolves and they may have thought it worth trying.

The third reason is that yesterDay she mentioned as being suspicious somebody else who is a baddie and the wolves wanted to dispose of her before she really got going on that other line of thought. Others at least vaguely mentioned by her include Brinn, some minor arguing with Kent, minor suspicion of Gwath and a bit of Greenie. She also bantered considerably with Form. Not sure its prudent to make much of that.

The fourth reason is that for personal reasons one of the wolves felt particularly threatened by Aganzir and wanted her out of the way as quickly as possible. If this is the case it might in some ways be the hardest to trace because the killing wouldn't necessarily have any relation to anything that happened previously.

The fifth reason is that Aganzir may have been so far off yesterDay in everything she said that the baddies felt completely safe in getting rid of her now.

The sixth reason is that Aganzir may have been a random kill.

Obviously, not all of these can be the case because several are mutually incompatible. I personally discount 6 completely because I don't think people have the luxury of acting randomly in this and even if they were wanting to their actions would probably be informed by prior events more than they would suppose.

I believe that it could be a mixture of options 2-4 (although option 4 would be an outlier but it could dovetail). Which one was the foremost in their minds at the time is currently an unanswerable question.

Comments? Any further possibilities why Aganzir was the target last night?

[A Little Green]

I'm here at last. Quite frankly I would have thought I'd be able to be around more toDay but school stuff took more time than I expected.

First of all, seems like my yesterDay's vote was pretty much a fiasco - I don't really know how come I forgot about the highlight, and by the time I received Agan's SMS the Day was already over. Not that my Agan-vote would have been worth being counted...

I was about to make a list but decided against it when I realised I had so little to say about anyone. My list looked mostly like a mixture of "No read", "No idea", "Under the radar" and "Seems okay". I'd love to have a better look at yesterDay's voting (the Nienna bandwagon was disturbing), but I don't think I have the time today since I still have some schoolwork to do.

I had something else I wanted to say but can't seem to remember what it was. Hope I can come up with than still at some point. All I can recall is that it was something clever.


EDIT: x-ed with Kuru, Kent and Noggins

[A Little Green]

I have to add to this discussion about granting people a free pass on Day 1 for different reasons. I think it's a sort of nice courtesy not to lynch people on Day 1 in their first game - or in their first game in a very long while - unless there is hard evidence against them. Deciding not to lynch somebody because that said person is enjoyable to play with is a trifle more complicated, since the person voted for instead easily gets a feeling that s/he is not as enjoyable to play with as someone else. And that, in my opinion, is one step away from fair play. After all, this game shouldn't be about lynching those you know little and keeping alive those you know and like best, but instead about letting everyone play and treating everyone fairly regardless of whether they are special favourites of yours or not.

I think Nog has been acting weird toDay. Earlier toDay he was sort of heated and overreacted to simple questions asked of him about his exceptional voting behaviour. Granted, he does that every now and then, but that doesn't make me less unnerved about it. His relation to Kuru seems interesting as well. That, in fact, being another thing I want to look at.

What else? Form, Kent, and Brinn seem innocentish, about the others I really have no idea.


EDIT: x-ed with Form and Nog

[A Little Green]

I checked the Nienna bandwagon. Actually, the one looking worst to me in that was Noggy. He starts with this:

Originally Posted by Nog

Of the rest I might vote for anyone for just not playing this game. Out from pure annoyance and frustration.

Nienna especially. That was soo bad...

I'll take a short look back and then vote, presumably for one of the slackers.

In his next post is a case against Nienna and the double-vote for her and Kuru. What I find interesting is that the earlier post makes it look like he just wants to choose one of the "slackers" (not a nice thing to say, by the way, and I'm not sure I understand what you mean with this anyway), and yet in the next one he brings up his case against Nienna, sounding like he genuinely suspected her of wolvery. I find this kind of controversial, rather like a wolf seeing a nice straw and grasping at it a tad too hard.

About the other Nienna-voters, then. Gwath and Sally both make their posts look like they decided to vote Nienna almost entirely based on Nog's post. Where that did make me raise an eyebrow, I agree with Fea - a wolf might want to avoid bandwagoning as obviously as that, knowing that it's considered classic clumsy wolf behaviour. Of the other two, Izzy looks slightly better based on the fact that she talked about Nienna before this bandwagon came out of nowhere. Brinn's vote looks innocentish too, though I, like Nog, feel somewhat wary about people who say they dislike their own vote and still vote the way they do.

[A Little Green]

I'm off to sleep since I need to be up at half past six tomorrow. I'll vote

++ Nogrod (this time I got the red colour right!!)

because he's the one I feel most uncomfortable about at the moment. For further reasoning, see my two previous posts. Good night!


EDIT: wow, triple posting!!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

In his next post is a case against Nienna and the double-vote for her and Kuru. What I find interesting is that the earlier post makes it look like he just wants to choose one of the "slackers" (not a nice thing to say, by the way, and I'm not sure I understand what you mean with this anyway), and yet in the next one he brings up his case against Nienna, sounding like he genuinely suspected her of wolvery. I find this kind of controversial, rather like a wolf seeing a nice straw and grasping at it a tad too hard.

Okay, let's start with the politically correct behaviour. The term 'slackers' was straight loan from Sally's post where she called people slackers for not posting enough. I agreed with her - and also about her being one... So no offence meant.

But yes, I did actually suspect Nienna of wolvery and she was one of the least posting persons on Day1. So I can see no problem there as she fitted both categories (not posting & suspicious) to me. On the other hand, I wouldn't have had anything against Alonariel, Shasta, Sally, Fea... except that they posted a way too little. So voting someone of them back there would probably have been just a vote wasted. (That's why I think people should post if they play)

How come you Greenie don't call your own "case" against Agan yesterDay (known innocent) or on me toDay (an innocent) "a wolf seeing a nice straw and grasping at it a tad too hard"?

One thing about style once more. Why do you say grasping it "a tad too hard"? What was "too hard" there? Giving a reason and a vote? Now that kind of talk is called rhetorics which is the most convenient tool for those who know what they are doing.

EDIT: X'd with Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I almost decided to post why I've been so gone recently, but I decided that's better left to the admin thread. I'll go there after I'm done with this post.

Anyway, re: Nogrod on Form.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The thing that makes me look at this post by Form suspiciously is the bolded part of it. The moral highground of after-wisdom!

in which the bolded part is:

Originally Posted by Formendacil

So this leaves me with the following: Brinn either saw something genuinely suspicious in Nienna--which I must admit I don't see at all--or else you had a different reason for killing her? A wolf saving a cobbler? A cobbler saving a wolf?

Conclusion? Brinn is moderately suspicious.

Now, Nogrod. You're saying that the thing that makes you the most suspicious of Form is that he doesn't see the same thing Brinn does? How on earth does that make sense? Explain it to me, would you?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I'm still working on my big analysis post...but am I the only one who finds Shasta's vote/explaination a little troubling?

Heh. Well, obviously I'm a little perturbed by it. Not that I think you can expect anything else from me, given the situation.

But it does seem a little bit odd... Yes, Shasta has felt a bit uneasy about me today, but it was not a clear situation in the slightest. He defended me in the following post:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I almost decided to post why I've been so gone recently, but I decided that's better left to the admin thread. I'll go there after I'm done with this post.

{SNIP}
Now, Nogrod. You're saying that the thing that makes you the most suspicious of Form is that he doesn't see the same thing Brinn does? How on earth does that make sense? Explain it to me, would you?

Granted, he's not exonerating me, but he seems to have understood where I was coming from, and on the amount of tangible evidence offered (and especially given Nog's own suspicions of Greenie, I would have expected him to vote that way, with the higher chances it held (holds?) of seeing effect.

On the other hand, it could be that Shasta went for me rather than Greenie in order to AVOID looking like a wolf jumping on a suggestion of a bandwaggon--a situation too reminiscent of Nienna's death yesterday. This could be the case if he's a wolf or an ordo.

[Nogrod]

Btw. You should pay heed to what Agan and I said already yesterDay: the number of bonus votes staying up with everyone will be against the village on a long run - and that run might be short indeed. You may think it's an individual guarantor making you more powerful in a tight spot but you should realise that that is a mind-trap.

For in a hard situation innocents are collectively more reluctant to - and basically unable to - use a lot of their power concentratedly but those who know what they are doing can calculate the level of force used and the target exactly. That means that 30 (or 40) evil votes against, let's say 70 votes, is far greater power than 3 (or 4) votes gainst 7. And getting into that exemplary situation takes only two Days of missed lynches (this included)!

I know I'm fighting windmills here but at least I can say afterwards "didn't I tell you?"

The problem of course is that if there is no common deal that we should make a collective disarmament the baddies will not give up their voting power - and it might be too late already for that to be tried. Blah... this looks bad indeed.

Originally Posted by Shasta

You're saying that the thing that makes you the most suspicious of Form is that he doesn't see the same thing Brinn does? How on earth does that make sense? Explain it to me, would you?

Nope, I'm not saying that. I'm saying that the wolves love to gloat with that kind of moral highground afterwards when others vote innocents: "You fools voted for someone whom I saw so clearly was an innocent - or are you fools in the first place? Maybe you're baddies with hidden knowledge?" The manouver tries to make them look reasonable and thoughtful & getting innocents right (eg. they are good to have around) etc... I've seen that too often to believe anyone saying that kind of stuff.

But I must halt your interpretation on another front as well. That is not what I find most suspicious with Form and to be honest I think I'm quite at loss with him at the moment. I do distrust him but I'm not quite sure he would be my number one - or even number two - choice toDay.

[Firefoot]

Just ducking in... I'll be around for about another hour or so, and then I'm going to have to vote... I can't guarantee that I'll be back again before the deadline.

Only looking at the order of the votes, I'm generally not seeing a whole lot that looks suspicious. If Kuru was proven to be a wolf, Izzy and Brinn as the last two jumpers on the Nienna bandwagon would look suspicious... but that's a big if.

Now I'm going to read a little closer and try to figure out who to vote for toDay...

[Nogrod]

Okay... the situation is bad unless we can force the baddies to use their bonus-votes now to save their mate (and possibly reveal themselves in the process) or actually get one of them down toDay if they decided not to save their mate with their extra-votes. Both would do good but it would require a real threat; like someone getting it right and being ready to use a lot of votes for it.

I might consider trying it as I'm not too confident on the number of Days I will be around anyway.

The only problem is that I would need to get it right. Otherwise the plan will fail.

Any ideas of whom I should try? Kuru, Fea, Greenie...?

And where are you people? I need to go to sleep pretty soon as well - even if I still may try to wake up a bit earlier like on Day1 to make, confirm or redo my vote then.

EDit: X'd with Firefoot - good to see someone around.

[Kent2010]

I'm not seeing anything suspicious about Greenie, maybe it's my bias, but I kind of can put myself in her shoes right now. I don't know what I'm going to do, I don't have any idea who I'm going to vote for, and I still have a while, as I can probably be around at the deadline. Based on Greenie's location, she can't and it may seem like she's grasping at straws, but I'd imagine if you don't know what to think, or who to vote for, and you are hard pressed for time, than that's the kind of suspicious you'll get.

Not all of us are gifted with the "time" to write out clear and concise suspiciouns against people. I'm not suspicious of Nogrod, but Greenie looks very honest right now and I don't see the deal.

Nope, I'm not saying that. I'm saying that the wolves love to gloat with that kind of moral highground afterwards when others vote innocents: "You fools voted for someone whom I saw so clearly was an innocent - or are you fools in the first place? Maybe you're baddies with hidden knowledge?" The manouver tries to make them look reasonable and thoughtful & getting innocents right (eg. they are good to have around) etc... I've seen that too often to believe anyone saying that kind of stuff.
-Nogrod

I don't think it's so much someone apologizing for there vote before hand, going back to what I said earlier, I don't see the big deal about Nienna's creative way of saying "I could be wrong."

I wonder if I'm just seeing something that's not there, but I think Form's looks like it doesn't fit.

So this leaves me with the following: Brinn either saw something genuinely suspicious in Nienna--which I must admit I don't see at all--or else you had a different reason for killing her? A wolf saving a cobbler? A cobbler saving a wolf?

It reads as a "by the way," which makes it look like it was added into the statement after the fact. I am not saying Form went back and editted what he originally wrote (there is no "edit" for the post), but I am saying I imagine wolves have to be pretty careful about what they say, and think about what they are saying all the time. This almost looks like it's something Form felt would be a good manuever to add the statement in after the fact, to make him look like he "knew better." Because it does read like a "by the way, I don't see why everyone was suspicious of Nienna yesterday."

Where if you look at Nienna's the reason I didn't understand your point about the..."I reserve the right to be utterly wrong" (paraphrasing - should be close enough), is because it fits with the flow of the post. She lays out her reasons against Nogrod and at the end definitely says "I'm not sure."

This might be..."grasping at straws," but I will say I've read a lot of books and historical documents. I find it fascinating to read them and see what was the written "originally" and then seeing the editting done afterwards, to add in something extra, or maybe to clear up something. The original Declaration of Independence, I think people must get a hold of (I should say a copy of the original) because there are spaces and indications of what words should be emphasized and where people should take their breaths/pauses when reading it. Even funnier, Family Guy makes a point of this with the "Right to bear arms," as the framers discuss in the 'editting' process whether that was "clear enough."

I assume wolves are careful and in ways edit what they say. I don't mean directly go back and edit their posts afterwards, but in the process of writing think about what they're saying and are careful about what they add or don't add. Formendacil's "moral high ground" as Nogrod calls it, doesn't fit - it's like an "I should add this to make myself look better."

I'm probably making much to do about nothing, because I'm really not all that suspicious of Formendacil, but the part in question is out of place.

This x'ed with Nogrod and Izzy

[Isabellkya]

Originally Posted by Nog

I have to ask you about this though. Would you explain me what are you after with this for it beats me entirely. I just don't get what you're saying - or the relevance of it.

Of course, I'll explain more of what I was thinking.
This situation might help more. If it were to come down to a true tie, and one on the block is a wolf/vampire. Then one of bad intentions could come and vote for both of the candidates. Yet vote for their mate first. Keeping it at a tie, but making sure their mate is safe without being so obvious about it. Afterwards, they could be all "I thought both were evil, and couldn't choose between the two."

Which you can see, is why I wondered about your ordering of votes.

Do you mind pointing out how my vote looks so bad?


I'm liking your style Kent. You seem to be a dive-right-inner.

You could be the vampire, Kuru.

Form, you brought up a good point. The evils could've been looking for a kill choice who had a higher probability of being an Ordo, and thus turnable. Though it looks like that can only happen two/three nights.

How is it a host of reservations, when it was a single word - uncomfortable. Which if you look back, it was about the seeming hoppers - Sally and Gwath whom came out of nowhere.


X'd since Shasta's #323