WW LX - Mortal Men, doomed to die

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Talk about bad timing. . . I will have to do alot of writting today and from the looks of it I will also have to defend my self today.

So Lhuna is our Ranger. . .it is a shame that she has revealed her self, a ranger is very nice to have arround in the closing stages. A hunter revealing would have been much nicer, as it is a person the wolves would have to think twice before attacking.

The stage is set and looks like it is going to be a fight between me and Eonwe. Which is odd, because the wraiths have been acting very strange, so I think it is a distinct possebility that Shasta is a wraith that attached him self to Sally. Normally I would guess that the two wraiths left was of the more silent type, but with this bunch anything is possible.

[wilwarin538]

Alright, I'm seeing lots of analysis on the mysterious 5, good good, I'm gonna go back and look at the known baddie posts abit more throughly. Then I shall return...

[Nogrod]

For starters...

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

So Lhuna is our Ranger. . .it is a shame that she has revealed her self, a ranger is very nice to have arround in the closing stages. A hunter revealing would have been much nicer, as it is a person the wolves would have to think twice before attacking.

You're right about it being good to have a ranger in the end as she could really make a difference but no can do.

But the hunter should really think about the following.

The hunter is one from the four last unknowns as my dreams have turned out plain ordos. So the hunter coming forwards now might be pretty nice indeed as it would reduce our chances of lynching an innocent into 1/3 (three unknowns of which two are wolves) and nice lynching list toMorrow and the Day after if we miss!

Also if a wraith tries a fake-revealment we'd have 100% kill as the hunter could take away the faking villain with her and leave the village as our wraith-killing hero!

What do you say hunter? Your pick!


I'l go reading the thread now. Back with hopefully some more ideas after a while.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But the hunter should really think about the following.

The hunter is one from the four last unknowns as my dreams have turned out plain ordos. So the hunter coming forwards now might be pretty nice indeed as it would reduce our chances of lynching an innocent into 1/3 (three unknowns of which two are wolves) and nice lynching list toMorrow and the Day after if we miss!

Also if a wraith tries a fake-revealment we'd have 100% kill as the hunter could take away the faking villain with her and leave the village as our wraith-killing hero!

What do you say hunter? Your pick!


I'l go reading the thread now. Back with hopefully some more ideas after a while.

Oooh, good plan. I was gonna say it earlier but I was scared that it would cause a fake reveal. I hadn`t thought of it that far. Makes sense.

I personally think that is a wonderful idea. Either way though, I believe we have this. There are 9 players,including 2 baddies, 3 unknowns and like 5 known innocents. Is it even possible to lose now?

Alright, I'm gone for real now.

[Nogrod]

Good posting toDay, interesting thoughts and some good spotting.

Just a few notions on Sally to begin with - just to ease my mind and have some sense in what hapened yesterDay.

Good point Lhuna in thinking that Sally's mates have been relatively unsuspected as that would make her amok-run more understandable. If she would have succeeded then there would have been a lot ot buzz around Lhuna, Brinn (& possible other innocents she had mentioned) and her on Days to come. But now we have managed to counter it leaving Sally dead, Brinn known innocent and Lhuna a very believable ranger. So that just backfired - if there was a plan after all.

For even if you Brinn are sceptical about it, your mentioning of the possibility that Sally felt uneasy just seems to fill the place of the missing motive for her to go for it with a full risk. Look at how much she has been suspected on earlier Days! She probably really feared she was going to get lynched and thus tried the spectacular way - and if she felt confident with her mates then why not?

Okay. Then to more pressing matters.

[Nerwen]

Okay, now that everyone's posted and there's been no counter-claim, I guess Lhuna is officially a known innocent.

That's a good idea about the Hunter, Nogrod.

And, Hunter– apologies for the following insult to your intelligence:

whatever you decide to do, please make sure your pick is one of the unknowns!

EDIT: X'd with Nogrod.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay, now that everyone's posted and there's been no counter-claim, I guess Lhuna is officially a known innocent.

Has Eönwë posted Today, after Lhuna's revealment?

EDIT: Checked it out. Eönwë has not posted toDay. So let's wait for him before declaring the situation. But for now I would still recomend concentrating the search into the four others...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Has Eönwë posted Today, after Lhuna's revealment?

Ah, now that you mention it, no he hasn't. I thought he had.

[Nogrod]

Sorry Shasta, but I will start with you once more.

There is a lot in your posting that shouts you're an innocent who is just a bit messed up with things (which would be understandable taken your limited participation so far).

Like Brinn said, there are many posts that would be either be too daring or too genuine / frustrating -looking which might point to your innocence.

But there are bad ones as well. Like Nerwen said it's improbable you didn't get the argument quite a many of us tried to bring forwards - namely that if an innocent and bluffing Sally wouldn't have acted in a way of presenting us a "baddie" to lynch when she couldn't have known Lhuna's role (why sacrifice a possible innocent if your sole task is to bluff to save the actual seer?). Just remember that at the same time you said you believed in my seerness. So your thoughts don't make sense while ours do.

No you could argue for a point that I am a false-seer who fools all of you and sarifices his mates. That would be a fair reason to defend Sally's "knowledge". But you never did say that out aloud. On the contrary you said you trusted me and just looked for different explanations. That is a bit weird. Why didn't you take that "obvious step" if you actualy believed Sally?

Also I'm a bit uncomfortable with this one with which you started the whole Day:

Originally Posted by Shasta

I hope Nogrod dreamt me. Otherwise I was probably better off not being active and getting modkilled.

Now if you were an innocent that would be just venting off some frustration - which is totally believable or at least within limits of it. But why start the Day like that as it would be known pretty soon anyway whom I dreamt of?

But if you were a wraith that might be a decent try. Had I not dreamt of you, you might do better looking such frustrated and disappointed to yourself.

Also there is this possibly a minor "slip" (if it is one) that one should never overlook - even if one should not base one's voting solely on these kinds of things. (bolding mine)

Originally Posted by Shasta

you'll still have one day to find the other two ringwraiths

Now I'm not a native-speaker and you should correct me if I'm wrong, but using the word "other" there really looks like a slip! Even if the number (two) is right the term "other" really bothers me there. Even classy hero-wolves (Roa hates me for life for nailing her that way ) have been known to make that kind of slips.

But to refrain a little, I must beg either Nerwen or Shasta to answer to following:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Is that in fact why Sally did it, Wraithta Althreduin?

How do wraiths detect rangers and be such cool with it that they pull out a campaign like Sally did to lynch them?

My problem with lynching you Shasta is that the wolves might be sneakier and better to hide. Both Rune and Nienna have been quite careful - which can be seen from the fact that one can't make points against them as easily as with you (and Eönwë I think stands somewhere between).

If you're an innocent you shouldn't leave us Shasta even if your frustrated. Come forwards and speak your mind, especially about the other unknowns.

[Nogrod]

Blah, have to go now even if I only had time for Shasta. Look at the admin. thread.

If anyone has time, please continue looking at Nienna, Rune and Eönwë as well.

And hunter, please do consider.

Hoping to be back sooner than later...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also there is this possibly a minor "slip" (if it is one) that one should never overlook - even if one should not base one's voting solely on these kinds of things. (bolding mine) Now I'm not a native-speaker and you should correct me if I'm wrong, but using the word "other" there really looks like a slip! Even if the number (two) is right the term "other" really bothers me there.

I wouldn't read too much into that, Nogrod. It probably just means "the remaining wolves".

Originally Posted by Nogrod

to refrain a little, I must beg either Nerwen or Shasta to answer to following: How do wraiths detect rangers and be such cool with it that they pull out a campaign like Sally did to lynch them?

No idea, actually– I quoted that precisely because it's such a weird suggestion and seems to come out of nowhere. It made me wonder whether it could have reflected a last minute PM from Sally: "Fine, kill Nilp then... but I've just got this hunch Lhuna's the Ranger... what if I try to get her lynched toMorrow...?" Or something along those lines.

So... I'm still waiting for Shasta's answer.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Has Eönwë posted Today, after Lhuna's revealment?

No, I haven't. But since everyone else no-one has tried to counter-claim, then I suppose it means that Lhuna is the ranger, unless we have a really quiet ranger who doesn't yet want to be revealed. I would guess that the real ranger would have come out by now if Lhuna had been faking. So yes. Now it is everyone.

[Nogrod]

We seem to be agreeing all of us once more... That doesn't exactly help us as theremaining wolf / wolves can easily follow that. If we had competition they would have to choose sides - one of thembeing under pressure.

That would be better.

(Back in and about - now some more re-reading or discussing if anyone's around)

[Nienna]

On Shasta:

Day One:

• Votes Nog I think because of picking fights – first vote for Nog (42)

Day Two: Didn't vote or post

Day Three: Didn't vote or post

Day Four:

• Thinks Sally’s probably a bored ordo and that Lhuna is definitely a wolf (311)
• Analyzes Lhuna, wonders why Nog’s going to vote Sally who is only a possible wolf when Lhuna is a probable wolf (320)
• Gives 3 scenarios all detailing why Lhuna is probably a wolf: Sally’s the seer, Sally ’s an ordo lying to protect Nog so probably has good reason for throwing Lhuna under the bus, and Sally as a wraith who is trying to protect Lhuna (321)
• Defends his three scenarios and says that Lhuna is the more probable wolf (322)
• Doesn’t understand why Nog suspects him as he hasn’t posted much, only presents an alternate story to Nog about Sally (327)
• Doesn’t think that Nog makes any sense in not suspecting Lhuna (329)
• Still thinks Sally could be an ordo trying to protect the seer (331)
• Gives one more scenario which is that a Sally–Wraith is trying to get a Lhuna–Ranger killed (335)
• Says not desperate to save Sally but to put alternate theories on the table (337)
• Doesn’t like how people were just assuming that Sally was guilty, irritated that Sally isn’t defending herself after he’s stuck his neck out for her (342)
• Because of Sally’s lack of defense he is starting to go with the majority (345)
• Didn’t vote

Day Five:

• Thinks he might have been better off being mod-killed (391)
• Thinks he deserves to be lynched (394)
• Thinks the last wraiths are Nienna and Rune (409)

This isn't looking very good for Shasta having only voted once and that for our Seer. He was also very vocal all Day Four and yet failed to vote. He actively tries to get Lhuna killed for a good portion of yesterDay. He is being really defensive and there is also the chance that he is just an unfortunate innocent who is just trying to help the village win. He said he was willing to be lynched because then we will at least know the other wolves.