WWLXII: Dead Men Do Tell Tales

[Boromir88]

I'm usually not into off the wall conspiracy theories, but Nerwen still being alive at this is scary. I will actually agree with Nogrod on his point that the dynamics of the game are interesting, but whoever the last wolf is (assuming it's not Nerwen), would have to be pretty confident to take away one of his/her choices to lynch...probably knowing that Nerwen will not be lynched...that is again assuming Greenie is not a co-conspirator who luckily picked a wolf to lead us all into thinking we can have a trusted innocent.

Now what I will say that these dynamics are different, I think I was killed a couple nights ago so there could be one less person who would unquestionably vote for Mac.

So, Nerwen, like I said...I don't believe in crazy conspiracy theories, if you are the last wolf you and Greenie without question will deserve the win for your super play. If you are innocent, consider why you are still alive. Whoever the last wolf may feel you were more likely to vote with him/her than Shasta would have...hence why Shasta was killed and not you.

Another hint, it might be good to do what I like to on Day 1 if it's possible.

[Mithalwen]

Stir up trouble and get yourself lynched as an ordo? Not helpful Boromir!!!

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Stir up trouble and get yourself lynched as an ordo? Not helpful Boromir!!!

Hehe, no no the other thing...I meant make use of the retractable

[Mithalwen]

Oh THAT other thing......

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm usually not into off the wall conspiracy theories, but Nerwen still being alive at this is scary.

As I agree with this, wondering still why the mutineer let her live and vote toDay (and especially not to be voted toDay eg. narrowing the choices to two: the mutineer and the other one), I still think we need to remind ourselves of the fact that has been voiced afew times but nit I think too lately.

If Greenie is a spy-impostor the real-seer would know that (Greenie was killed already on Night1!) and even if s/he got killed / lynched without being able to warn us beforehand, it would be totally outrageous, reckless and irresponsible for her/him not to come forwards afterwards claiming her/his role...

So Nerwen basically can't be a mutineer.

It leaves Gwath and Izzy.

I've thought Gwath quite a lot lately as you see and think it's more probable he's not a mutineer than that he is. Nothing's certain in WW of course, but...

That would leave Izzy. Basically because I have no good case against her being a mutineer - like I have with the two others.

EDIT: X'd with the fellow-gunner

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boro

Basically I'm saying Gwath not being mod-fired should not 'prove' whether he is am mutineer or not

Agreed. And not only "should not", but also "doesn't".

[Macalaure]

Gwath:

Why would wolf-Gwath not kill Nerwen? His strategy would clearly have been to capitalise on the Nerwen-Izzy animosity. He just needed one of them to do the wrong thing. However, with Shasta and Izzy alive, because of the unlikeliness of Nerwen being lynched, I think the chance of one doing the wrong thing would be higher.


Izzy:

Izzy would need a lot of confidence to make Gwath vote Nerwen, but that could be the only reason to keep Nerwen alive. Of course Nerwen might vote Gwath, but the whole situation looks much easier with Gwath and Shasta alive.
It is in her favour that she's regarded as a cobbler - it makes her a bit more secure of being voted while looking bad, but that doesn't affect the desirability of the two scenarios.


Nerwen:

Is it possible that Nerwen is a wolf after all? In that case, the real seer must either have made a ridiculous blunder, or is still alive, which would mean that Izzy is the real seer, even though she claims it's not so. However, wolf-Nerwen would have suspected Izzy of being the real seer a long time ago - so why is Izzy still alive?


Of course, both wolf-Izzy or wolf-Gwath could have thought that Nerwen is a cobbler.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Question: Was Gwath "gone" when there was a no-kill?

[Macalaure]

I started to analyse Lommy’s behaviour towards Eonwe, Gwath, Izzy, and Shasta yesterday, but RL came in between me and the really important things. I didn’t look at Nerwen, since I didn’t consider it possible that she’s her fellow mutineer. Now, I only consider it very unlikely (we do have to think about it).

Just a few comments about Eonwe and Shasta, since they’re dead. Lommy is fine with Eonwe almost through the entire game (except for thinking he might be a cobbler briefly). She declares him innocent, ridicules my case against him, and defends him staunchly. Then suddenly the turnaround yesterday. Her defense of him against me must've either been consciously faked, or she analysed him very little before. Once she took the time to look at him yesterday, she conveniently reached a different conclusion. Now he’s dead.

Did anyone notice that Lommy didn’t vote for Shasta on Day1 because she considered herself to be too much of a coward? That attitude quite changed afterwards. She suspected him strongly without any solid reason at all, and when she analysed yesterday, she had to make huge leaps to still colour him bad.

Gwath and Izzy then. Lommy suspected Gwath for a while earlier in the game and even voted for him on Day3 in 3rd position. The next day she’s still suspicious, but less so (without reason). She says she’s still ok with voting for him, but at the same time she dissuades others from doing so. After that, she rapidly drops her suspicion and then declared him innocent (she goes from there to there in a strangely continuous fashion) and still does. Her vote quite suggests he’s innocent, but all her latter behaviour suggests the opposite. Her behaviour towards him on Day4 absolutely screams wolf.

With Izzy she starts out thinking she’s innocent, even stating that she’s one of those she feels best about. Again, she dissuaded people from voting for her on Day4. On the same day later, she concluded that Izzy must be either really frustrated or a cobbler. Henceforth, she never considers her to be anything else but a cobbler. Lommy keeps her safe by calling her innocent as long as she can. When she can’t anymore, she tries to keep her safe by calling her a cobbler and never considering something else.

[Boromir88]

Did anyone notice that Lommy didn’t vote for Shasta on Day1 because she considered herself to be too much of a coward? That attitude quite changed afterwards.~Mac

But there was no Boro intervention on Day 1.

The good news is Mac, at least you are watching what you say, making it virtually impossible to see who is your partner. Though, not really sure why you would say something at this point...I mean you pretty much just try to weave in doubt about Lommy, and say Gwath or Izzy could be the last mutineer.

[Boromir88]

Question: Was Gwath "gone" when there was a no-kill?~Shasta

Yes, but I'm fairly sure Izzy missed a day pretty early in the going too, so that might be really hard to tell anything from it. Now you know why I get frustrated over multiple people missing at the same time.

Though, I still think the key is why Nerwen wasn't killed, and why you...would Izzy have gotten rid of someone who would likely vote against her, to keep you and Gwath, but also make her look more guilty by killing Nerwen? Or is Gwath hoping to use Nerwen's strong suspicion against Izzy, to vote for her, and put this game away?

I think looking at either Mac's interactions between Gwath and Izzy, or Lommy's interactions between the two, are just red herrings at this point. I mean in this situation who's to say how mutineers would act amongst themselves? And it all depends upon personal bias...whether you think Mac is a wolf, or Lommy. There's no doubt one is, I obviously believe it's Mac, Mac obviously believes it's Lommy...but that will just confuse the situation. The key is who would benefit more from an innocent Nerwen still being alive at this point, and not an innocent Shasta? Izzy or Gwath?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

The good news is Mac, at least you are watching what you say, making it virtually impossible to see who is your partner. Though, not really sure why you would say something at this point...I mean you pretty much just try to weave in doubt about Lommy, and say Gwath or Izzy could be the last mutineer.

Just throwing my thoughts out. I expected to get reactions like these, but at least it won't be my fault if we lose. I'm aware I'm saying that all of them could be mutineers, but since I'm dead, I don't think I have to draw conclusions anymore. If anybody gets a good idea from what I said, I'm ok.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

In that case, the real seer must either have made a ridiculous blunder, or is still alive, which would mean that Izzy is the real seer, even though she claims it's not so.

It could be Gwath, but whatever the case, the real seer, if they are still alive, they should not reveal, as it seems like there's a cobbler alive too. But then again, why would they leave it so late when there's a chance that they could get killed.
Because of this I think that if Greenie wasn't really the seer, it would have to have been either one of the modfired ones or Gwath. However, we'll never know, so it's probably best if we try to take Greenie's message on board, as that's the only possible information we really have on the living.