Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXIII: The Cottage of Lost Play

[Rikae]

That was what I was thinking, but we can't be sure we would have voted that way - especially since the Eonwe/Autume/Nessa trio was suspicious more by default than anything else, and Nessa and Autume seemed to be just getting more involved at the time, too. I lacked stronger suspects at the time, but that may have changed at a later date.

[Lalaith]

This is very difficult. But I turn for inspiration to a very great detective, who declared that “when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth". I said I would analyse the evidence, and here it is.
Day one –
Nogrod – is busy – there’s a lot of posts to go through. Wants to kill the careful and quiet ones. But then is worried about Shasta for being too busy. Note - this is odd. “likes” Inzil but nonetheless has a bit of a to and fro with him. Later complains about the talk being unproductive and there not being any suspicions, but doesn’t give up any suspects himself at this stage. Then he says he has been suspecting Rikae and Fea, but Boro challenges him on this and asks where. I can’t see it either. Gives a summary where he calls Fea ‘creepy’ but still feels positive about Inzil. Looks at this point like his biggest suspect is Nessa but then he likes her response so seems to backtrack. Does not vote until after McCaber’s reveal when he naturally goes for Fea.
Rikae – comes in and does her drunken rum thing. Mentions Shasta, Steve (who he?) and Pitchwife. Inzil picks up on something she says about chainsaws, but it’s all a bit random. That is the one thing we hear from her on Day One – she does not vote. Nogrod later calls this an underwhelming performance and I agree.

Day 2
Nogrod is busy again! He says he was ‘right’ about Fea. Hmm....I’m not sure that the suspicions he voiced on day one amounted to a categorical accusation. Isn’t quite as confident about McCaber as I would have liked, but he does say that McCaber should at some point give up his innocent dream...his reason however is that we might otherwise lynch them by accident. (He doesn’t mention the fact that it is useful to have a trusted innocent to listen to). Speculates about Boro’s vote for Inzil. This is an interesting point and could be taken either way. Also there is his analysis of Inzil’s vote, which (in retrospect) seems risky speculation if Inzil is a fellow wolf. But...he analyses all of us pretty closely and it would look odd if he didn’t do the same for Inzil. Interestingly, at this point he is much less happy about my Day One vote than he later seems to be. He then goes for Shasta, and tells everyone to talk...
He comes back to decide that McCaber, Inzil, myself are least suspicious and that he will also wait for Rikae and Nerwen to participate more. Then talks about the remaining four suspects and appears to be hovering towards Nessa again, or maybe Shasta. He defends Pitchwife, four minutes before deadline, but also Inzil. Then seems to get upset by the way voting is going (not sure why?) and goes for Shasta. It’s hard to read all this because so many posts are bunched together, but I suppose one interpretation is that a wolf-Nog could not suddenly vote for Pitchwife without having voiced suspicions. His vote for Shasta could be an acceptable ‘third way’ to save Inzil. Or there is the innocent interpretation, that he simply suspected Shasta.
Rikae – she comes in to say that she mistrusts Pitchwife, Eonwe and Nogrod. Her appearance is welcomed by Inzil. She then says she’s surprised that no-one has gone over yesterday’s votes (although in fact Nogrod has already done so). She concludes that Nessa, Eonwe, Pitchwife and myself are suspicious. She doesn’t find the non-voters suspicious but this may be a joke. She is herself a non-voter again.

Day 3
At this point there are no known wolves to analyse interaction with.
Nogs spends a long time looking through McCaber’s posts, trying to find an innocent. He fails to do so. He then goes over the votes, in less detail than the previous day, and includes his own. “choosing Shasta for Inzil because the latter would be playing” – that doesn’t make much sense actually. Narrows his list down to Nessa, Eonwe and autume, exonerating Rikae because he wants her to participate more. He seems to be drawing the same conclusions I did about Eonwe, but less firmly. He worries about a mix-up of mine about voting times. Later, he defends himself for defending Inzil, and has the same suspect list as Rikae – Autume and Eonwe. Then he gets worried about Nessa, having earlier said that she should be left alone. Then two people vote for her (Nessa) making it a draw. Nogs decides to leave it as a three-way lynch.
Rikae – insists that she would be ‘ashamed’ to win as the kind of wolf she would have been in this game. Is now participating more, analyses everyone, (although she never produces her promised Day 2 analysis) messes around a bit and comes down to the same suspect list as Nogrod. What happened to her earlier suspicions of Nogrod himself? Narrows things down to Autume and Eonwe, tosses a coin and votes for Eonwe.

Well, I found that very time-consuming and annoyingly not all that helpful for me to make up my mind. I can see why I trusted you both. On the surface, it would seem that Nogs has slightly more points in his favour than Rikae. But I am still inclined to think about Rikae’s failure to participate in the early days as a very strong point in her favour. And I just don’t like that triple-lynch.
So, back to today...
Day four – we are three. Both Nogs and Rikae are very vocal – arguing with each other - both are scaring me.
Rikae declares right away that she is almost certainly going to vote for Nogrod. However she is clearly contemplating the option of me being the guilty one too. This is a point in her favour because I had already indicated I was more likely to vote for Nogrod than Rikae...so if she was the wolf then she could probably risk just going for Nogs right away and I would follow suit. It looks like she is genuinely looking for the truth.
Nogrod is going from one to the other. If he is the wolf he is of course in the tricksy position of trying to persuade Rikae to vote for me, while also trying to keep me on side, so that I will vote for Rikae rather than him. Of course, if he is innocent then this could also work, he is genuinely searching for the guilty one.
This is not a situation I have ever been in before. I feel like I am tying myself up in knots, trying so hard to be fair. There is evidence, and there is instinct. From what I know of you both, the Nogrod of this Cottage could be a wolf, but the Rikae of this Cottage is a much more unlikely wolf.

I have spent much too long on this and have made myself late for Other Things. I will return later.

[Rikae]

Steve = Eonwe.

As for Day Two analysis, I went through it all in my memory but didn't find anything in particular worth saying - it seemed as if others were saying the same things I would have.

[Rikae]

My intuition isn't even consistent right now. At first it said Nog was the wolf, then Lalaith, and now Nog again...

I can almost feel the presence of all the deceased innocents, watching us and maybe even hoping I will vote one way or the other. Perhaps, on the other side, they know who the last wolf is. I wish they could tell me!

I am generally against double, let alone triple, lynches in principle, and I dislike the way Nogrod make such a decision unilaterally, with no discussion. True, we all allowed him to by voting as we did, but engineering a triple lynch out of the blue at the last minute is just - well, something I disapprove of. But I shouldn't vote based on disapproval, but suspicion.

Lalaith could absolutely be a wolf as well. She has done nothing, really, that convinces me of her innocence (I don't find the failure to help Fea theory convincing at all - Fea might have even expected to go early).

Nog's behavior toDay - I don't like it. As I said, he seems to be waiting to see what direction things turn, urging us to suspect each other, and only feigning confusion for himself (it strikes me more as indifference than confusion - either one of us lynched is fine by him). He doesn't seem particularly concerned about his own vote.

Then again, Lalaith's behavior looks wolfish too. She stays cool, pretty much disregarding any suspicion directed toward herself, focusing on suspecting Nogrod, mainly, which would be a safe bet for her, if she's a wolf, if I actually started the day bluntly stating a misguided suspicion. In fact, it was just what I was looking for from her when I stated my intent to vote Nog in that way - a sense of calm certainty, little reason to consider the possibility that I might be a wolf, only to cement my vote for Nog and justify her own.

On the other hand, Nog's reaction was not what I would have expected from an innocent, either. I would have expected more effort to convince me of his innocence if he thought I was likely innocent, or, if he thought I was suspicious, more effort to gain Lalaith's cooperation. I don't get the impression, though, he's really making serious wolf-hunting efforts in either direction.

I started this little speech with an idea at the back of my head of ending it with a vote, but that vote has changed three times while I was talking.



Well... my intuition leans slightly more in one direction, I think... and I also think that what remains of this day is likely to shed much light on the matter. Actually, I can hardly stand the suspense.

And it seems Nog's talking right now... what he's saying reminds me of something that's bothered me about his posts... he says here "without a wolf's knowledge that's how it is", and it seems to me like he keeps making statements like that. It seems overly defensive, spelling things out too much, I don't know. Maybe it even speaks in his favor. *shakes head* But no. Then he goes on to say that's hard for an innocent to do... I don't like it at all. It's a very wolfish thing to say. It's almost as if he's telling us exactly what he deliberately did in order to appear innocent, as if he's congratulating himself on his own cleverness, right in the open.

No, no, no, you both look suspicious... you both look so evil. I need a drink.

[Nogrod]

"Here, take some of this fine Chablis I found from the cellar. It goes fine with the onion soup also..."

Nogrood had listened to what Rikae had to say and was a bit confused.

"Well if the Day begins with you both saying you would most probably vote for me what else can I do but to defend? And really I have no definite idea about you two. That should show from my words thus far. But I'd sure love to hear more from you.

Funny... as soon as Lalaith started to speak she started to look bad as well. That's the way it goes as well. Sure, looking at her analysis gives me an air of her trying to pile up any possible or impossible thing against me - with some careful "then agains" - and if it was to be an analysis of us both she has remarkably little to say about you Rikae - like she foremostly tried to get you convinced of my wolvery so that you wouldn't suspect her.

Well, to be fair you have done quite little thus far so less things to analyse - but still I find her comments on you merely superficial or neutral while she really tries to pick up with anything I've said and done.

I'm happy to see that was not a 100% success.

Okay, I need to finish the soup but will be back right away after that.

[Rikae]

It looks as though we're all holding our votes for the last minute, then? Say, let's all vote for the person to the right (or, er, east). That way the wolf doesn't win in any case, and our hostess may find it interesting enough to resurrect us all (if anyone is really dead at all) and set us free!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

It looks as though we're all holding our votes for the last minute, then?

Well, I sure would love to hear more from you both before voting... and I'll try to give my two cents after I have eaten... So not just holding a vote but actually trying to form an opinion before voting."

[Rikae]

I'm not so sure there's anything left to find out/say, unfortunately. I'm not sure what my vote will be either at this point, but it may come down to a whim or a hunch in the moment. What do you want to know from me, that I haven't said already?

[Nogrod]

Nogrod was busy making an onion soup but had listened what the two others had said so far while occupied with the soup.

"You both have one thing that makes you look innocentish but another one of them has to be wrong. So which one?

Now Lalaith you surely let Fea down on Day1 if you were her mate. You'd have many options to help her discreetly there without anyone paying attention to it too much... well, possibly. After that you have voted early and safely - and for innocents (which surely innocents can do as well as wolves).

What Lalaith already pointed out, Rikae did herself state that she would be "‘ashamed’ to win as the kind of wolf she would have been in this game ". And I tend to agree with that. But then again what else could she have said in that situation? I mean I think she can make quite unforeseen turns and use quite unconventional tactics in tough situations...

So which one?

Meanwhile let me address a few things from your analysis Lalaith as I think you weren't actually too fair there. Just a moment."

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Wants to kill the careful and quiet ones. But then is worried about Shasta for being too busy. Note - this is odd.

That's a bit unfair interpretation that almost smells like a deliberate one. Shasta sure was one of the most "quiet and careful" people around. Did you see any suspicion he'd have made? Any case? Any real testing questions at anyone? Anything? But yes you can say he was busy - talking all kind of stuff not related to what we had to do in the first place (checking doors and suggesting cosier room to discuss...). But really, Lalaith - what where you thinking making that comment?

With Nessa this has been a roller-coaster ride for me. I have been suspecting her a lot at times and at others I have thought her possibly innocent. Sorry, without wolf's knowledge that's how it is. And btw. in a long run that's something a wolf has hard time trying to fake but an innocent has these doubts and changing feelings naturally and it can be followed from the discussions from one Day to another.

With Inzil it's nearly the same story - but I thought that he was more helpful to us making points and sticking his neck out there - unlike some others. The good thing with that is that you can in the end start actually making some reasoned deductions from that kind of person - whether to think he's a wolf or innocent. Now comparing to Shasta fex. the difference is huge. With Shasta you could only toss a coin and hope for luck; with Inzil you could actually mull over what he had said and done.

Nogrod is busy again! He says he was ‘right’ about Fea. Hmm....I’m not sure that the suspicions he voiced on day one amounted to a categorical accusation.

Did I say I had had a "caterogical accusation"? Who could come up with one on Day1? I did suspect Fea from her first speech onwards and you can go back the memory lane to check it. And yes, I felt good having it right.

He defends Pitchwife, four minutes before deadline, but also Inzil. Then seems to get upset by the way voting is going (not sure why?) and goes for Shasta.

Well this is a long story but I'll try to make it short.

Now both you Lalaith and Pitchwife voted for Shasta when Fea was at lead (with McCaber - and there were a few people in one vote as well). But now the difference between you and Pitchwife was that his vote was made two minutes later than yours - and McCaber's revelation. Now sad to say there was a chance for fraud there and I couldn't trust him as openly I trusted you... But finally I decided that I have to trust his word of that being an honest cross-posting - and then he looked as white as you did Lalaith. And he was leading the votes! And my curses there were because of that situation - and more importantly because no one seemed to be around not to talk of discussing their preferences leading the situation into a mad last minute picking... In a sad way Inzil offered me a way out by voting Shasta (I didn't want to vote for Pitchwife with reasons stated just up there - or myself either - and thought Inzil was more readable than Shasta). So there you go.

“choosing Shasta for Inzil because the latter would be playing” – that doesn’t make much sense actually.

It makes a lot of sense actually. I want to be able to think about people, not being forced to throw a dice as there's nothing to work with. Okay, 'nuff said.

Well that was not probably all but I'll leave it there for now. Feel free to ask more. I'm more than happy to answer. I have nothing to hide so I can answer all you have to ask.