Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXIX: Were-Librarians

[Nessa Telrunya]

Thanks for getting those together, Tum, that saves a lot of trouble.

My conclusion, is that, were last Night's kill to be a revenge, it would point to either Hakon or Brinn. But that would be too obvious, both of them are smarter than to do something that blatantly points to them.

Any thoughts?

[Macalaure]

Boro and Form dead... that means a lot of analysing work toDay. I'm happy that both were quite occupied with me yesterDay. Since I know what I am, I can skip all that.

I still wonder about the wilwa-kill. Since Boro pulled two tricks to flush out gifteds, the librarians are very aware how dangerous those are. But why did they think wilwa could be gifted? Maybe they're applying more than one strategy at a time...

I wouldn't be surprised if they killed Form because the snitch gave them the name.

Let's analyse Boro and Form then:

Day1:

Originally Posted by Boro

Plus his observation about the Nerwen votes, that seems an odd choice...Nerwen?

The openness of this statement, encouraging Nerwen's voters (Sally among them) to elaborate instead of dissuading people, gives me even more confidence in Nerwen's innocence.

Boro votes autume. Now, this could easily be lib-on-lib, however, coupled with the wilwa-kill - maybe the objective was simply not to kill the snitch? I do feel moderately better about autume now. I'm not sure what to think of Boro's "Why do you think autume is guilty then?" on Day2.

Form mainly pursues Hakon and defends Nienna on Day1.

Day2:

Boro is friendly with Fea throughout, suggesting to me that he's trying to win her unexpected trust, but I'm not sure.

He said Nienna looks most innocent, but he couldn't have otherwise - it was obvious. He's worried about Form's vote for Hakon, could be both an attempt to make Form look bad and one to defend Hakon.

#168 has to be treated with care, since Boro was already under pressure and made this post to appear helpful. Nerwen, Shasta and Nienna are innocent to him, but the reasons are so obvious that this doesn't change anything. He feels ok about Hakon, but is still watching him (keeping him innocent yet in nowhere-land makes me slightly suspicious). Autume and Brinn are getting a pass for not being there (watchworthy). He tries to set up alonariel as a scapegoat, which makes her look innocent.

He then picks up a point of Hakon against Form, making Hakon look worse.

The exchange between Boro and Brinn looks to me like Boro is trying to figure out whether Brinn is the snitch.

Form is almost totally immersed in the Boro-Mac thing at first, then strongly goes after Brinniel.

I daresay that Brinniel is one of the two the remaining lover will surely dream of, and I think it's a good choice.


Now, the votes:

Nessa -> Brinn (no reason to suspect)
Hakon -> Alona (very suspicious since it's after Boro brought her up as a scapegoat, then again, it's before any votes for Boro)
Mac -> Boro
Nienna -> autume (no reason to suspect)
Fea -> Nessa (not sure what to think)
Form -> Brinn
Brinn -> Brinn (peculiar)
Boro -> Alona
Alona -> Boro (makes her look very innocent)
Shasta -> Boro (same)
Boro --Alona -> Brinn
Brinn --Brinn -> Alona (suspicious, of course)


Bottom line:

Suspicious (in order):

Hakon (see above)
Brinn (I don't think she's a librarian, because if she were, I'm sure the plan to save Boro would have worked. She's a top snitch candidate, though. Form would be Brinn's natural choice to make the librarians dream of.)
Autume (some evidence looks suspicious, some innocent)
Fea (I've been wondering why she's been so friendly with Boro, but that's all I have against her)
Nessa (simply because nothing exonerates her)

Innocent (without order):

Nerwen
Nienna
Shasta
Alona

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

This group contains the last Librarian and the Snitch. I'm quite sure of it.

Alona
Autume
Brinn
Hakon
Nessa
Shasta

I don't think Alona is the wolf, and if Nessa or Hakon are, they really don't deserve to win because they've both posted less than the mod.

I have a hunch who the Evil Two are, but it's purely a hunch, so I don't want to say it and end up with people jumping down my throat for blithe commentary like Nerwen did yesterDay.



Time for breakfast, and must write an essay before I go anywhere or do anything else.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

My conclusion, is that, were last Night's kill to be a revenge, it would point to either Hakon or Brinn. But that would be too obvious, both of them are smarter than to do something that blatantly points to them.

It won't be revenge; however, he might have been killed as a suspected Seer– that's one of the standard reasons wolves kill people.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It won't be revenge; however, he might have been killed as a suspected Seer– that's one of the standard reasons wolves kill people.

In which case his last posts point to Brinn.

But here's the problem with this: the last wolf doesn't usually want to kill a seer that has pointed them out as evil, because then that wolf has to contend with a village hell bent on lynching them on the posthumous orders of the dead!Seer.

So if the wolf killed Form on suspected Seer business, my hunch would be that Brinn is the Snitch and the wolf wanted to nail the Seer prior to being dreamed of.

This is a hunch, though. I'm not at all certain.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I still wonder about the wilwa-kill. Since Boro pulled two tricks to flush out gifteds, the librarians are very aware how dangerous those are. But why did they think wilwa could be gifted? Maybe they're applying more than one strategy at a time...

I posted everything Wilwa said on Day One, which is to say, approximately nothing. No hints that I could see.

It is odd, now that we know Boro was one of the pack– you'd think he'd make gifted-killing a priority.

Or was the plan to do something as uncharacteristic as possible? Makes me wonder if all the wolves are/were old hands. (Or paws.)

I agree that Brinn's and Boro's posts near DL look as if she's the snitch and as if he had guessed her identity. It could be, though, that she's a wolf playing cobbler.

EDIT: X'd since my last post.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Looks like there's a consensus that Hakon and Brinn are most suspicious. Now all we have to do is wait for the living lover to reveal their roles?

edit: wait, did the lover already submit her(?) choices or is yet to?

If one of them is killed by a wolf then they get a revenge kill but it has to be used the next Day. The lone lover may also give this up to learn the role of two of their fellow players as well.

Ambiguous.

Lari? Are you there?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

In which case his last posts point to Brinn.

But here's the problem with this: the last wolf doesn't usually want to kill a seer that has pointed them out as evil, because then that wolf has to contend with a village hell bent on lynching them on the posthumous orders of the dead!Seer.

But what Form said was:

since I do incline to think Brinn is a wolf

If Brinn is the guilty party she might have thought she had some chance of talking her way out of it... better anyway than face a definite accusation toDay from the supposed Seer.

This is speculation, though. He could have been killed to frame her. (Which would suggest you're not a wolf, Fea, since you're not taking the opportunity to push Brinn's guilt.)

You might still be the snitch, though. This sounds rather snitch-ish (if that's a word)–

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I have a hunch who the Evil Two are, but it's purely a hunch, so I don't want to say it and end up with people jumping down my throat for blithe commentary like Nerwen did yesterDay.

Or just ordo-Fea attention-seeking. As usual.

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Ambiguous.

Lari? Are you there?

To clarify, Form's lover gave up the revenge kill in exchange for learning the roles of two players. There is no revenge kill happening.

And Sally also answered it, thanks Sally!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Actually, on second thought, I will. If I'm wrong, then it will give Fea something to do, and if I'm right, we're in a situation where it won't do much harm at all, especially since the remaining Lover has used up their powers.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

This group contains the last Librarian and the Snitch. I'm quite sure of it.

Alona
Autume
Brinn
Hakon
Nessa
Shasta

I don't think Alona is the wolf, and if Nessa or Hakon are, they really don't deserve to win because they've both posted less than the mod.

I have a hunch who the Evil Two are, but it's purely a hunch, so I don't want to say it and end up with people jumping down my throat for blithe commentary like Nerwen did yesterDay.



Time for breakfast, and must write an essay before I go anywhere or do anything else.

I think Fea is the lover and dreamt of two of Nerwen, Mac, and Nienna.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Well, since I believe the best way to go about this is to honestly tell what I think of everyone. That way, gifteds and librarian and ordos alike will know where they stand with me.

I know listers were practically dissected earlier, but I'd really rather everyone know what I'm thinking.


Fea, surprisingly doesn't look suspicious. She clearly stated earlier that even as a regular villager, she was too helpful to the wolves because of her semi-permanent status as a scapegoat. (Now that I think about it, I wonder why everyone is always suspecting her?)

Hakon I'm iffy about. Boro somehow managed to side with him, yet not at the same time, which makes me wonder if it's wolf-innocent or wolf-wolf going on there.

Tum always seems to suceed in giving necessary information for a debate, then stepping back to watch the fight. Maybe she's too nervous that giving an opinion might put the spotlight on her, or maybe it's not as innocent. I, for one, am more inclined to believe the former.

Nerwen I am almost entirely sure is innocent. On Day 1, Boro subtly encouraged people to vote her instead of sally. One librarian turning the vote from one of his fellows to the other? Unlikely.

Nienna. Has she said anything guilty? I don't hear any sirens when she does anything.

Mac's head to head with Boro probably speaks louder than anything I could say. It wasn't wolfish on his part, mainly for the reason that his posts spotlighted Boro and lead to his death, in my opinion. Smart, if he's innocent, and stupid if he's a wolf. I don't think he's stupid.

Shasta's vote killed Boro. Easy enough to interpret.

alona also voted Boro, who was trying to frame her at the time. Would a librarian really do that?

Brinn I believe to either be a snitch or librarian. Voting herself yesterDay makes me think the former rather than later, but her performance right before deadline was sketchy.


Nessa: Obviously innocent

edit:crossed since Mac

[Macalaure]

Looks like there's a consensus that Hakon and Brinn are most suspicious. Now all we have to do is wait for the living lover to reveal their roles?

edit: wait, did the lover already submit her(?) choices or is yet to?

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Looks like there's a consensus that Hakon and Brinn are most suspicious. Now all we have to do is wait for the living lover to reveal their roles?

I second this request. This information would be much appreciated before analysis is over.