TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Formendacil]

I'm going to assume it's not the deaths of Alona and Shasta that have provoked this strangely quieter day--I had under two pages to catch up on since last night!

My immediate first impressions have to do with Morm, who has set himself up rather nicely as a presumed Known Innocent--which is fair enough on his end, since we all do it, but it's rather disconcerting how everyone else has jumped on it. He hasn't, in any case, been subjected to much heavy scrutiny today.

Perhaps this bugs me because he's so certain I'm the Bear, and I know I'm not.

Relatedly, I'm really bothered by Morm's certainty that he was the probable Wolf-kill last night. While the argument is possible that he was on the Wolves' menu, how he comes to this conclusively I've no idea--unless people are talking out of turn on MSN or something, but as I assume that's not the case, I'm more inclined to read an over-bold assumption on the part of Morm here--a capitalisation, perhaps, on the fact that the Ranger is dead and the Wolves obviously aren't telling.

Which is not the say that Morm couldn't have been the Wolves' attempted Kill last night, but given his abysmal lack of accuracy where my alleged ursinity is concerned, I'm definitely not going to take his logic on faith.

Let's try and reason it out then ourselves...

Regarding the case that Morm was the Wolf-kill, I think the following two points need to be considered:

1) Why would the wolves have gone after someone attracting so much suspicion? If he's not one of their own number, they would surely be glad to have him around today, to keep the focus off themselves.

2.) The Wolves want the Bear dead too. They can't win if s/he's still alive. Unless they think Morm is the bear or a Gifted, it doesn't stand to reason that they would kill him off when he might have the potential to lead the village to finding and killing the Bear for them.

Morm has not adequately addressed these questions, in my opinions, and they are grounds enough alone for not assuming he was the Night's pick.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Durelin

What's interesting is once again Sally did a bizarre retraction, and is convinced she did something she didn't do. Ties are ties in this game, it is not the first to a certain number of votes, it is a coin flip. I'm thinking she's our cobbler cause of this, but maybe she is a wolf playing that...boldly.

This makes sense to me. However, while Sally's eminently capable of playing a wolf playing at a Cobbler, I incline to think she isn't, and this begs the question then: do we assume Sally's Cobblery, but let her live, so as to catch an actually dangerous baddie? Or do we go for a more certain baddie, and take out the Cobbler in lieu of consensus on a baddie?

The bet-hedger in me likes the latter, but the village in general (despite not agreeing on who is furry), seems to think we've a good chance of catching a wolf or bear today, and with two deaths looming tonight and the Cobbler being more of a nuisance than a danger, I'm inclined to strike more boldly than my nature would prefer.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'm sorry about my early-vote again. I always have trouble with deadlines being in the middle of the night.

++Morm

[satansaloser2005]

Popping to the grocery store but I wanted to mention/ask something.

Lommie, the people you say you will vote are the people who are on your wolf list. Doesn't it make more sense to go after your bear candidates first and decrease the number of Night kills? I don't know if it's just me or if that's weird. Of course she's not around but I look forward to seeing her response when she gets back.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Lommie, the people you say you will vote are the people who are on your wolf list. Doesn't it make more sense to go after your bear candidates first and decrease the number of Night kills? I don't know if it's just me or if that's weird. Of course she's not around but I look forward to seeing her response when she gets back.

I'm around yet because I'm slow... (and once I go I won't be back)

I said rather clearly that I want to vote Form or morm because they could be either bears or wolves.

And if I end up voting you, Nerwen or Mira - and not Durelin, Rikae and Mac - it's just because I prefer voting a likely-ish wolf to a possible bear. After all, we're here to eliminate all the baddies, not shoot wildly at possible bears until we run out of people who turn out to be innocent.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm around yet because I'm slow... (and once I go I won't be back)

I said rather clearly that I want to vote Form or morm because they could be either bears or wolves.

And if I end up voting you, Nerwen or Mira - and not Durelin, Rikae and Mac - it's just because I prefer voting a likely-ish wolf to a possible bear. After all, we're here to eliminate all the baddies, not shoot wildly at possible bears until we run out of people who turn out to be innocent.

K, fair enough. I just wasn't sure I understood you so I wanted you to explain before I completely crucified you for something you didn't do. Thanks for clearing it up!

[Nerwen]

All right. Preliminary vote here, will change if needed, blah, blah blah.

++Morm

1. Because he's too darn edgy by half, even for him, and I'm getting an increasingly strong "killing machine" vibe off him.

2. Because I agree with Lommy that his death will tell us more than most people's (especially mine).

3. Because his name just looks so much better in red. I never thought green was his colour!

EDIT:X'd since myself.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Form

What difference, if any, makes you assume someone might be a Wolf or might be a Bear? Because a lot of the gut-feeling suspicion going around might, in fact, be accurate about Good or Evil, but I scarcely see how it can distinguish between Union and Free-Lancer.

Well, although half of the village discredits this reasoning, I think the way people talk about the bear may point at them being the bear themselves. As for wolvishness, it's about being mate-looking with known or suspected wolves. And partly it's just gut-feeling. Like, Rikae, Mac and Durelin all creep me out a bit and they do not look like Alona's mates, so I keep the option of one of them being the bear.

I'm thinking of voting Morm because he's been avoiding the noose for too long and his role would undoubtedly reveal stuff.

But then again, I'm not sure if a wolf would insist so strongly on being the Night-kill and I want to lynch him exactly because he could be either a wolf or the bear.

Should I vote Form then? He seems a lot more innocent now that he has come back.

Mira? Sally? Nerwen?

Argh... I'll go brush my teeth and think about my vote meanwhile.


edit: xed with Sally

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But then again, I'm not sure if a wolf would insist so strongly on being the Night-kill and I want to lynch him exactly because he could be either a wolf or the bear.

Well, far be it from me to discourage you in voting Morm, but in the interests of fair play, I feel I should say that I hardly see how being a wolf or a bear would necessarily make a difference in claiming to be the Night kill. Indeed, it almost makes more sense for Morm to claim to be the Night kill if he's one of the Wolves, because he (and his partner) would be the only ones who would know it's not true. A bear-Morm, on the other hand, would have to be wary that any future Wolf-deaths did not end up killing on the Wolves who would leave a clear trail back to himself as the Bear.

Or, well, I guess I should say "clear trail insofar as anything in this game is clear"--but I'm sure you all assumed that anyway.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Well, although half of the village discredits this reasoning, I think the way people talk about the bear may point at them being the bear themselves.

HEY EVERYBODY!!!! She talked about the bear so she must be the bear herself

*waves arms frantically* Everybody run and hide...

Seriously though Lommy, I understand what you are saying but you keep insisting that because somebody talks about the bear and how they might behave or what not they are likely bear candidates, what about those who talk about those who are likely bear candidates because they talk about the bear?

Seriously are you the bear Lommy, just tell me you know you want to scream it out.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by mormegil

*waves arms frantically* Everybody run and hide...

Had to say this really made me giggle, hehe.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I'm sorry about my early-vote again. I always have trouble with deadlines being in the middle of the night.

++Morm

Heh.

I'm really not sure I trust this vote, given Nessa's overall quietness in the game, but I definitely like it. And I'm irked enough with Morm I'm inclined to go much the same way myself. Nice to see I wouldn't be alone.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

What difference, if any, makes you assume someone might be a Wolf or might be a Bear? Because a lot of the gut-feeling suspicion going around might, in fact, be accurate about Good or Evil, but I scarcely see how it can distinguish between Union and Free-Lancer.

But does it matter?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Should I vote Form then? He seems a lot more innocent now that he has come back.

He does, actually.

EDIT:X'd with Form.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But does it matter?

I think it does. If you can distinguish between a Wolf and a Bear--and you've got equal reason for thinking both--it should make a difference, insofar as it seems likely to me that you'd rather rid the village of the Bear, rather than the Wolf. At least, that's what I would think, since I'd prefer one kill per night rather than two, though I suppose it's possible you'd prefer to weaken the team players, on the hope the remaining wolf will eat the bear, or vice versa.

My point, basically, is that it would affect your vote, if you could be sure of the distinction. More likely, I suppose, it's unlikely that you'd get the "all other things being equal" end of it, and either the potential bear or the potential wolf would be a more powerful argument on its own--but not necessarily.