TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by autume98

You have made a good point Rikae. I do believe there is a wolf in there somewhere. I'm leaning towards Mira, Nienna, Nerwen, or Nessa.

I have believed that one of these are a wolf for a while now. I don't remember if I put anything about some of the people that have been quiet. I might not have after my vote on Day 1. I do think that one of these possibly two of these are a wolf. They just haven't posted a lot for me to get a feel for them.

Edit: x-ed with Form

So you agree completely with what Rikae says. That's not suspicious at all. Actually, I don't find it that suspicious because I doubt that even a newbie wolf would be quite that obvious.

That being said, I am back only to do my promised analysis of Shasta's posts and then I'm gone for the rest of the night.

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

So you agree completely with what Rikae says. That's not suspicious at all. Actually, I don't find it that suspicious because I doubt that even a newbie wolf would be quite that obvious.

That being said, I am back only to do my promised analysis of Shasta's posts and then I'm gone for the rest of the night.

Never said I agree completely, just that she made a good point. It has also been a feeling of mine for a while now that one of you four are the wolf?

Now I'm wondering why you voted for morm yesterday. Care to share?

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by autume98

Never said I agree completely, just that she made a good point. It has also been a feeling of mine for a while now that one of you four are the wolf?

Now I'm wondering why you voted for morm yesterday. Care to share?

Sure. I wanted to keep Alona alive a while longer in order to look at the prospect that she and you were BFFs like phantom suggested you might be. Nothing more vicious than that.

[Mirandir]

#84
Says to lay of Nerwen for the backwards writing thing, banters with phantom.

#86
banter

#392
Votes Pitchwife for his first post.

#402-403
banter

#428
"Can I just say that I hate the "voting to keep around someone more useful" reason for voting? It's the main reason I got into it with Nogrod two games ago - it's basically a slap in the face to someone who may not have been able to participate, etc.

Also, Pitchwife backs off his alona vote when pressed? Interesting. My vote stands, for now."

#434
Vote count
"Noteworthy: Pitchwife seemed to freak a bit after suspicion turned to him and jumped on Mac's vote for alona, but why didn't he vote for Hakon if he were evil?"

#454
"Form, you've never liked me in any games you've played with me, I get that, but I've never seen you blatantly lie about me before. I haven't suspected Rikae at all, and I'd like to know just where you got that particular assumption."

#535
Confuses morm with Mira.

#578
Votes Mira for pointing out gifteds

~~~~~

That is seriously all he posted. Based on this meager amount, I personally don't see any ranger hints. Furthermore, I certainly don't see any reason why the bear would kill him. He doesn't mention the bear at all (unless I missed something), and thus doesn't leave any clues as to who he thinks it might be. Why bother killing someone who doesn't post a lot and thereby is probably going to be an easy lynch target for his lack of participation. I don't get it.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

That is seriously all he posted. Based on this meager amount, I personally don't see any ranger hints. Furthermore, I certainly don't see any reason why the bear would kill him. He doesn't mention the bear at all (unless I missed something), and thus doesn't leave any clues as to who he thinks it might be. Why bother killing someone who doesn't post a lot and thereby is probably going to be an easy lynch target for his lack of participation. I don't get it.

Granted, I'm going to look my answer is too right and fits too perfectly... but that seems perfectly obvious to me--Shasta was quiet and left no trail, and therefore the Bear would kill him--to leave no trail. I've mentioned this a couple times already, and I think it's fair to bring it up again, but the Bear should be a lot harder to find than Wolves or a Seer, because s/he has no knowledge of anyone's roles--same as an Ordo. Theories that Bears can't help giving themselves away aside (because while they have some credence, they're not really relevant to the night kills), it would be in the Bear's best interest to kill the quiet ones at night, because this keeps them as anonymous as their daytime knowledge might.

Brinn's death also fits that pattern. Hakon's? Well... Hakon's death doesn't fit it as obviously, but it does fit. At least, it seems to me anyway, that there's pretty much no way on the basis of Day 1 that Hakon's demise would implicate anyone, and I would interpret that in the same way: the Bear is sniping people leaving no trail, and that's the whole point.

[Durelin]

I've always felt it's a bit of a waste to try and find a pattern/clues/whatever in the Night kills, but I guess maybe that's just a personal thing...because I know that people can make picks for all sorts of reasons, not always tactical...

I largely agree with Rikae's lynch priority list.

[Macalaure]

I feel ignored by Form. Maybe this will help:

++Formendacil

[Rikae]

Mac, what's your case against Form, in a nutshell? I'm not sure what you're basing those "baddie points" on.

[Rikae]

Herr Christian Mac Mac Mac
All dressed in black, black, black
with lots of fur, fur fur
all down his back, back, back

He asked his wife, wife, wife
for fifty cents, cents, cents
to see Formendacil, cil, cil
make his defense, fence, fence.

He jumped so wolfish, wolfish, wolfish
he jumped so high, high, high
he wasn't lynched, lynched, lynched
'til the fourth of July, lie, lie

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I feel ignored by Form. Maybe this will help:

++Formendacil

You have my complete and utter attention, Mac. But, I admit, I was not aware you addressed anything to me. Would you like desperate protestations of my innocence? Wild accusations of Morm and sundry? Cackling? Confessions of guilt?

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Granted, I'm going to look my answer is too right and fits too perfectly... but that seems perfectly obvious to me--Shasta was quiet and left no trail, and therefore the Bear would kill him--to leave no trail. I've mentioned this a couple times already, and I think it's fair to bring it up again, but the Bear should be a lot harder to find than Wolves or a Seer, because s/he has no knowledge of anyone's roles--same as an Ordo. Theories that Bears can't help giving themselves away aside (because while they have some credence, they're not really relevant to the night kills), it would be in the Bear's best interest to kill the quiet ones at night, because this keeps them as anonymous as their daytime knowledge might.

Brinn's death also fits that pattern. Hakon's? Well... Hakon's death doesn't fit it as obviously, but it does fit. At least, it seems to me anyway, that there's pretty much no way on the basis of Day 1 that Hakon's demise would implicate anyone, and I would interpret that in the same way: the Bear is sniping people leaving no trail, and that's the whole point.

I hadn't thought of it that way... And because of your perfectly logical answer, you must, by default, be the bear.

Okay, I need to vote now because I'm already late for another engagement. I wish I had more time, but unfortunately circumstances do not permit it.

++autumne

Right now she looks the most suspicious to me, due to both her agreeing with Rikae as I mentioned earlier and because she seemed to calm down a bit after Alona was offed, as if she was backing off to protect herself with one packmate down.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Granted, I'm going to look my answer is too right and fits too perfectly... but that seems perfectly obvious to me--Shasta was quiet and left no trail, and therefore the Bear would kill him--to leave no trail. I've mentioned this a couple times already, and I think it's fair to bring it up again, but the Bear should be a lot harder to find than Wolves or a Seer, because s/he has no knowledge of anyone's roles--same as an Ordo. Theories that Bears can't help giving themselves away aside (because while they have some credence, they're not really relevant to the night kills), it would be in the Bear's best interest to kill the quiet ones at night, because this keeps them as anonymous as their daytime knowledge might.

Brinn's death also fits that pattern. Hakon's? Well... Hakon's death doesn't fit it as obviously, but it does fit. At least, it seems to me anyway, that there's pretty much no way on the basis of Day 1 that Hakon's demise would implicate anyone, and I would interpret that in the same way: the Bear is sniping people leaving no trail, and that's the whole point.

I tend to agree with this line of thought on the bear. I don't think the bear had any idea Shasta was the ranger as I've said before I think he/she got lucky.