TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Looks to be just you and me and I'm heading out so alas.

But we must post, or the butterfly will get us!

[Macalaure]

I still find Nerwen mostly cobbler-ish.
Form is probably innocent, but I'm not sure.
I'm really uncertain about Nienna.
Nessa - I'd hate losing to such a silent werewolf, but, if we lynch her toDay, I'd also hate losing to the wolves because of such a silent innocent.
Sally looks very guilty, and since this is Boro's game, I'm tempted to try out some Boro-wisdom: If it looks like a wolf, sounds like a wolf, smells like a wolf, chances are it's a wolf.

If Sally is a wolf, then Nessa most likely isn't, which means I'm wrong about Form or Nienna (or Nerwen).

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But we must post, or the butterfly will get us!

Too late...consider you all gotten!

[Nienna]

Some morning thoughts. I think Sally is the most suspicious right now.

Originally Posted by Bubbles

If you think there's little information to be gotten from it, then why do it? Why don't you go over the posts of Sally, Form, Nerwen, and Nessa instead, instead of just saying they need to post more?

I don't plan on analyzing Mira and I was trying to dissuade others from as well since I think it is pointless. I do plan on going over the other players but there seems to be very little to analyze about Nerwen and Nessa especially since they haven't posted very much, which is why I think they should post more. Form I just can't get a read on so it would be nice if he posted more.

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry I couldn't post more this morning; was dashing off to the airport and didn't wake up as early as I'd planned.

I think that if Nessa is a wolf, Form is too. YesterDay he started being all cute around the time I was going to vote Nessa, and I don't think it was just to save his own skin. So if one of them is, I think both of them are.


We have six toDay, yes? So we have to get it right toDay or we lose. Oh, goodie. No pressure on me at all, is there?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I think that if Nessa is a wolf, Form is too. YesterDay he started being all cute around the time I was going to vote Nessa, and I don't think it was just to save his own skin.(

Well... I wouldn't be surprised. In fact, as a preliminary vote–

++Form.

Might change this later, of course.

[Nienna]

Nessa: Posted one post yesterDay and sided with Tum about Form. Tum didn’t really post any suspicion of Form yesterDay to be sided with. It seemed like Nessa just kind of jumped onto something because she showed some concern about Form in the past and someone else had voted for him already. If she is an innocent then she needs to do much more to help us win. We need to make sure we lynch a wolf today or we lose.

Nerwen: Posted once yesterday right before deadline wondering why everyone was voting for Lommy, defended her Morm vote and that was it. She posted twice today both of which didn’t say anything about the game. I wish she would post her suspicions or analyze us or something. I don’t want to let a wolf slip past but I also don’t want to lynch someone who isn’t a wolf.

Mac: Innocent.

Form: I can’t really get a read on him. He could be the cobbler trying to save a Nessa wolf.


Nerwen is back!! Has posted more today! Nerwen! What do you think about people??

More on Form and Sally later.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Nerwen is back!! Has posted more today! Nerwen! What do you think about people?? .

I hate them. All of them– er, I mean–

I don't know why you all think I'm think I'm the cobbler. I mean, sure, I haven't been playing my best but still... I voted Mira, didn't I? Not that it matters what you think just as long as you don't lynch me toDay, becauase then we're done for!

Mac– clearly innocent, witness Rikae's hidden message. (I'm kicking myself now– I guessed there was going to be one in that very post, but I thought it would be backwards!)

I think Sally is the cobbler. I know I followed her vote on Form, but then I've found Form suspicious-ish for ages.

No idea about Nessa. She's been under my radar the entire game.

As for you– well, based on your voting earlier, I thought you might be a wolf, but I'm not so sure now.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I think that if Nessa is a wolf, Form is too. YesterDay he started being all cute around the time I was going to vote Nessa, and I don't think it was just to save his own skin. So if one of them is, I think both of them are.

Sally dear, you are too cruel. I was quite willing to lynch either Lommy or Nessa for the simple reason neither looked innocent to me, and I was willing to go along with either Mac or yourself, or preferably both. I'm still amenable to a Nessa-waggon, incidentally.

++ Nessa

I can, of course, revoke and change that later, but I still think she looks suspicious--two wolves surviving this late in the game suggests, to me, a very quiet wolf with few trails, and it may just be me, but I'd much prefer to take out that wolf, though I'm willing to change if this is a position that leaves me alone in the cold.

I'm home with family and it's a mostly nice Sunday, so I'm not sure how much I'll be around. I'm around right now, and I'll be around by the deadline, but my fingers are raw with Legoing, and I'm itching to get back to that, my thrice a year hobby.

[satansaloser2005]

Hey, anything's possible! It's a possible connection, not necessarily the only one. Oh, and another idea. Nessa as my sweet Formie's cobbler? Anyone?

(Not meaning to stir and run but I'm on for just a second in Mnemo's room so I shall leave here and then come back again later. )

[Boromir88]

I wanted apologize to everyone for the last couple days. I'm at a library, and still no net access at home. It's driving me insane. I've been filled in by some people and caught up on the rest. Thanks everyone, it's been a frustrating couple days.

[satansaloser2005]

Morm mentioned (in post 1126) that he thought me as the first choice for cobbler, with Nerwen as another possibility.

Mac then mentions it again in post 1143, saying that she looks more and more cobblerish to him.

Morm mentions it again in post 1156, saying that Nerwen fits for cobbler.

Durie mentions Nerwen as a cobbler candidate in post 1168.

Lommie agrees in post 1196.

In post 1238 Mac says he's worried about her, but I can't tell if he thinks her cobbler or true baddie so I'm including it.

Morm tells Tum that Nerwen's the cobbler in post 1263, and adds that he thinks she's a bit rubbish at it.

In post 1266 Morm says he thinks Nerwen is the cobbler (again!) but also mentions that she could be a wolf posing as a cobbler. (Which is, incidentally, why I'm making this post. You'll see, hopefully.)

Post 1346, Mac says Nerwen's a cobbler, no arguments allowed.

Tum says in post 1365 that she thinks Nerwen or I could be the cobbler, but isn't sure which.

Mac says that unless Nerwen's being really hardcore, she's the cobbler. Post 1366.

Lommie says in post 1374 that the bear is Morm and Nerwen's the cobbler.

In my post 1433 toDay I say Nerwen's my cobbler candidate.



Okie dokie, the reason for this. I'm thinking that if Nerwen's actually a wolf, the person who started/heavily supported the theory may be her packmate.

My problem? I have to head out for a bit. (I will get back to this, I promise.) Before I go, would anyone like me hug/poke/bite/etc. the duck for them?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Okie dokie, the reason for this. I'm thinking that if Nerwen's actually a wolf, the person who started/heavily supported the theory may be her packmate.

Well, I'm not a wolf, so there.

[satansaloser2005]

Seems I have a couple minutes so I'll return to my Nerwen post, sort of.


Mac's supported the theory quite a bit but I'm inclined to believe that he's married to his best friend so I don't think he's the wolf in this chain of fools, etc.


....And I know nothing. Blah, I feel useless. I think it would make a lot of sense to have Nerwen and Formie as wolves and Nessa as a cobbler.

Of course Nerwen could legitimately just be busy, so I'm more for voting Form toDay. Nessa's popped to cobbler status so I'll probably retract her unless I decide she really is a wolf.


Oh, and vote count is Nessa 2, Form 1, everyone else zip. Just in case you're wondering.

[Macalaure]

Only time for a few quick comments now.

I think that if Nessa is a wolf, Form is too.

I'm not sure Nessa's vote for Form fits in with that, unless Form really thought he was dead.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I don't know why you all think I'm think I'm the cobbler.

We've been thinking that for a day or two now, why, if you're not the cobbler, do you only complain now?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I mean, sure, I haven't been playing my best but still... I voted Mira, didn't I?

Mira is the bear and thus not even on the cobbler's side, but actually, this mistake makes you look less cobbler-ish.

Originally Posted by Sally

I'm thinking that if Nerwen's actually a wolf, the person who started/heavily supported the theory may be her packmate.

Good point, unfortunately, all that did are now known innocents.


I'm wondering whether I made too much of the likeliness of Durelin choosing Nienna. I can vividly imagine her shouting expletives at the screen when I came up with it. I think I will analyse her briefly later.

[satansaloser2005]

Yeah, I was sad when I realized that it didn't make sense. I thought I was on to something.

[Macalaure]

Day1:

Form -> Mira (1)
Alona -> Hakon (2)
Sally -> Hakon (3)
Nessa -> Rikae (2)
Nienna -> Pitch (3)
Form -> Nessa (1)

Sally votes with Alona and thus looks bad, though it means very little on Day1.
Nienna's vote for Pitch looks bad, of course, but not condemning.
Form's a bit of a throwaway, but according to him he wasn't aware.


Day2:
Alona -> morm (1)
Nerwen -> Mira (2)
Sally -> morm (2)
Nessa -> Alona (2)
Form -> Inzil (3)
Nienna -> Shasta (1)
Alona -> Inzil (4)
Sally -> Inzil (5)

Sally votes with Alona, again.
Nessa casts a crucial vote against Alona. If Alona had been in really serious danger, it could have been a vote to sacrifice her, but it wasn't so yet.
Form's vote for Inzil looks moderately bad.
Nienna puts in a near-throwaway.
Sally's rescue looks particularly evil.


Day3:

Alona -> none
Nessa -> none
Sally -> morm (1)
Form -> Alona (2)
Nienna -> morm (3)
Nerwen -> morm (4)

Would Nessa really follow Alona with her trick? It looks so risky to me...
Form's vote for Alona looks good, but you have to keep the circumstances in mind.
Nienna's vote for morm looks bad.
Nerwen's vote for him looks good, though (if you discount cobblery), because Alona looked thoroughly dead at that point.


Day4:

Nessa -> morm (1)
Nerwen -> morm (2)
Form -> morm (3)
Nienna -> morm (4)
Sally -> morm (5)

The entire morm-waggon is still alive? Yikes! That deserves an extra-post.


Day5:

Nessa -> Form (2)
Sally -> Nessa (1)
Sally -> Lommy (2)
Form -> Lommy (3)
Nienna -> Lommy (4)

Nessa voted for a wolf already, though without lynching her. If she and Form are wolves, this vote would have been really risky.
Sally's willingness to switch votes could point to her being a wolf and not caring which innocent dies.
Form and Nienna had it easy to follow my lead. It looks bad for both.


Two/three votes that would have been risky for a wolf. I just don't believe that Nessa has a pokerface like that. She's not a wolf. I'm also willing to believe that Nerwen, if not the cobbler, is not a wolf. That narrows it down.

[wilwarin538]

Sally --> Nessa
Nerwen --> Form
Form --> Nessa

Nessa 2, Form 1

Left to vote
Mac
Nessa
Nienna

[Macalaure]

A word on toDay's voting: This placeholder voting really got out of hands. Voting early when you're not sure whether you'll be back later is ok, but Sally and Nerwen were both active later. I get the feeling of wolves fishing for the one innocent to cast his/her vote the wrong way. The fact that Nessa received two votes makes it much more worrisome.

Form's vote looks less evil than Sally's and Nerwen's, therefore: Form, don't you know how dangerous a semi-informed early vote on a possible last Day is?

Oh, and I just remembered something. Sally, I asked you yesterDay how exactly you came to suspect or non-suspect certain people. I'm still very interested in an answer.