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Old 09-01-2009, 04:19 AM   #1
A Little Green
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nilp
I'm also not the village thief, but I stole a pair of your knives.
You shouldn't have admitted that, babe. The butcher is not someone you'd like to get in bad terms with.
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Old 09-01-2009, 04:35 AM   #2
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You shouldn't have admitted that, babe. The butcher is not someone you'd like to get in bad terms with.
Or the baker, or the candlestick maker. Not that we have one of those, but still. He was a sweet old man, the candlestick maker. Always used to take out a book a week, brought them back like clockwork he did. Granted they were a bit singed sometimes but I suppose that can't be helped, bless him. Besides, I'm a bit of a pyro. As long as it's not books being burned, of course.



*looks at time, flails* Going back to bed now I think. Either that or reading.
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Old 09-01-2009, 04:44 AM   #3
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You shouldn't have admitted that, babe. The butcher is not someone you'd like to get in bad terms with.
It doesn't matter if the cat is black or white, so long as it can't catch me.
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Old 09-01-2009, 06:00 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
And anyway, the main issue would be this: Simply put, for the plan to come into action, we would need the Seer coming out and the Ranger coming out.
Actually, the Ranger wouldn't have to reveal. He would just go along with the plan and we would all just have to hope we don't lynch him or that they don't get killed by the wolves. Then, if the Ranger does die, if it was a Night where they were protecting the Seer then we'd have atleast one more Night out of the Seer and can get all of their dreams (even the innocent ones) and if the Ranger dies on a Night when the village has protected the Seer then we can get them to reveal then. There's always the possibility, that the Seer could die toNight. 19 players (since we're gonna lynch someone) - 4 wolves = 15, 2 kills, so like a 1 in 8 chance (if I can do math properly) of anyone dying. That's actually not very small.

Anyway, I can understand how people would object to this, because it is a crazy idea. But really if anyone is scared of the Ranger dying before we can get many protects for the Seer (thus the Seer revealing for nothing), then you should also be scared of the Seer dying before we can get any of their dreams. The chance of either of them being killed is the same. So I get wanting to put this off for a bit, but if we put it off tooooo long, then we could lose the chance completely and might miss out on any info the Seer may presently have.

So those are my thoughts. I'm only going to be around for about an hour, cause I have to go to work. I have an unexpected order in today, so I will be there 2 hours longer then expected, which means I'll probably only be here for the last hour of the Day. Was really hoping more had been said while I slept....
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Old 09-01-2009, 06:06 AM   #5
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^ wilwa clarifying my haiku previous.

Well, that's all for me now. See you tomorrow--or not.
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Old 09-01-2009, 06:10 AM   #6
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Hey! Where is everyone? I'm so bored.

Haha

x'ed oh, Nilp! but now you're gone....
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Old 09-01-2009, 06:16 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wilwarin538 View Post
So I get wanting to put this off for a bit, but if we put it off tooooo long, then we could lose the chance completely and might miss out on any info the Seer may presently have.
Which is why I said it might be worth doing a bit later. In fact, it might be worth it as soon as the Seer dreams a wolf (though it's up to him). At the moment we'd probably only get the name of a single innocent– who would then be killed.

EDIT:E'd since Wilwa at #46.
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Old 09-01-2009, 06:26 AM   #8
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Which is why I said it might be worth doing a bit later. In fact, it might be worth it as soon as the Seer dreams a wolf (though it's up to him). At the moment we'd probably only get the name of a single innocent– who would then be killed.
Especially because there are 4, and getting that first one gone is super important this game. So I think this could be something everyone can be more ok with, instead of getting the Seer out there without any really valuable info. It's really all up to the Seer for when their info becomes worth the risk.

And for fun: 20 players - our lynch choice - the seer = 18, so 4 in 18 which makes it so the seer has a 2 in 9 chance of dreaming a wolf (again, if my math is right). Which actually, is not so bad, almost a one in three.

x'ed with Legate, will read that post and respond now
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Old 09-01-2009, 06:20 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by wilwarin538 View Post
Anyway, I can understand how people would object to this, because it is a crazy idea. But really if anyone is scared of the Ranger dying before we can get many protects for the Seer (thus the Seer revealing for nothing), then you should also be scared of the Seer dying before we can get any of their dreams. The chance of either of them being killed is the same. So I get wanting to put this off for a bit, but if we put it off tooooo long, then we could lose the chance completely and might miss out on any info the Seer may presently have.
Well, maths aside, because just by maths, the percentage of everybody dying is rather high, but then of course, it's not the way it works.

Anyway - "putting it off toooo long" - I guess that's something that won't happen, because in most games the Seer reveals on let's say Day 3 at most, either knowing already at least one Wolf (and then we can go on with the plan mentioned above) or in some more dramatic cases, the Seer becomes revealed by the fact that he/she dies or is about to be lynched or something as nice as that.

Anyway, good point about the Ranger - I actually didn't think of it, I was operating with the idea that the Ranger would have to cooperate with the others (and stuff like "I can't protect the Seer toNight, I did it already last Night" - but thinking of it, it's unlikely that it would happen on the first Night after the Seer's revelation and also, even if it did, would the Wolves dare to risk attacking the Seer even though there'd be a strong chance of him/her being protected? (of course the Ranger's not going to announce that to anybody) ...well, maybe with two kills per night, they still might...), but of course, if the Seer just announced "okay, wherever you are, Ranger, you protect me toNight and the Night Guard will do so the night after", it's okay. Of course, it's just on the hope that the Wolves don't by chance or by deduction target the Ranger. But it's true that it's a difference from revealing his/her identity, as they would just have to rely on good luck in that case.

Still, I am not so keen on revealing the Seer so early. If he or she had two Wolves by toMorrow, well maybe then, but in the average cases, not really sure. The main problem anyway would be this confusion which is likely to come if somebody reveals. Even with the Ranger point of wilwa's in mind, if we have any counter-reveal, there'll be this "I am the Seer!" - "No! I am the Seer!" - and now choose whom you want to protect and when... although... if we still had the Ranger and agreed unisono on whom we want to Night-Guard (the village would have to agree), we could as well protect both of them and take turns in that. But... well. Okay, I dislike discussing the subject too deeply anyway. It's so easily exploitable.

EDIT: x-ed with Nilp and Nerwen - eeeexactly the same thoughts! Yea, good.
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Old 09-01-2009, 06:35 AM   #10
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1420!

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Still, I am not so keen on revealing the Seer so early. If he or she had two Wolves by toMorrow, well maybe then, but in the average cases, not really sure. The main problem anyway would be this confusion which is likely to come if somebody reveals. Even with the Ranger point of wilwa's in mind, if we have any counter-reveal, there'll be this "I am the Seer!" - "No! I am the Seer!" - and now choose whom you want to protect and when... although... if we still had the Ranger and agreed unisono on whom we want to Night-Guard (the village would have to agree), we could as well protect both of them and take turns in that. But... well. Okay, I dislike discussing the subject too deeply anyway. It's so easily exploitable.
Well, with counter reveals for Seers it's usually easier then it is for the other two gifteds. They'll have a few dreams by then, so if they reveal what they know to that point (even if it's just innocents), then it should be easier to deduce who's lying and who's not, really depending on what sort of info they provide. But yes, the back and forth between the two would work, and eventually the fake seer would slip up and there we have it.

My brain is starting to hurt. I'm thinking myself in circles with all these hypotheticals. I need something else to discuss....

Who wants a nice pint of ale???
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Old 09-01-2009, 06:40 AM   #11
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My brain is starting to hurt. I'm thinking myself in circles with all these hypotheticals. I need something else to discuss....

Who wants a nice pint of ale???
Me. I guess I have also enough for now.

Speaking of that, miss barmaid, haven't you thought of getting married? A fair girl of your age could start thinking about it... I could surely find you a good rich husband, only for a small fee I could arrange it...
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Old 09-01-2009, 06:45 AM   #12
wilwarin538
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Me. I guess I have also enough for now.

Speaking of that, miss barmaid, haven't you thought of getting married? A fair girl of your age could start thinking about it... I could surely find you a good rich husband, only for a small fee I could arrange it...

Rich??? Sounds lovely! Find me a rich husband and he can pay you the small fee.
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