Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Mnemosyne]

Legate:

Why would the Ranger need to reveal?

EDIT: Heh. This is exactly what happens when you don't realize there's a second page.

[Mnemosyne]

Okay, so...

First of all, what about the revealish plan is cheap? It follows the rules! The village should be more than glad to take all rules that give it an advantage and use them!

Second: Lommy, my dear, you are commenting on said plan. So don't complain about the fact that people are still talking about it. Fact is, people are filtering into this village one by one today and they may have thoughts about the matter that haven't been brought up yet.

I'm going to stir the pot a little bit more and suggest to you, Boro, that it is actually more important to start protecting Gifteds now rather than after the Wolves are down to only one kill, because the chances of someone whose special powers may mean the difference between survival and annihilation getting killed is especially high when there are two kills in place.

It looks as if (as I rather expected) no one wants to do this toDay, which is rather understandable. Since I will be busy for the last five hours of the Day I shall have to look over the thread thus far and cast my votes soonish.

[Mnemosyne]

Nog, I like your style (i.e., keep 'em both alive).

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Okay, so...

First of all, what about the revealish plan is cheap? It follows the rules! The village should be more than glad to take all rules that give it an advantage and use them!

Well I'm all for doing things the 'old-fashioned' way. If we just let the seer hand us the game there's no fun in it. I say we try it on our own for a while and if the seer thinks they've enough information to help us then fine. (Besides, if the seer tells us their dreams there'd quickly be too many people to cover. Unless of course they only told us their dream if it was a wolf.) Basically it's just not my style. If the rest of the village wants it I shan't complain (much) but I'd rather do this the hard way, if you will. (See last game, where I didn't want to use the surveys to do our detective work for us.)

Originally Posted by Little Mnemo

I'm going to stir the pot a little bit more and suggest to you, Boro, that it is actually more important to start protecting Gifteds now rather than after the Wolves are down to only one kill, because the chances of someone whose special powers may mean the difference between survival and annihilation getting killed is especially high when there are two kills in place.

You do have a point there, and I'll give it to you. If the wolves get the gifteds right off, though, they can have it. (Not that I'd want them to get the gifteds, but you get my point. If the wolves are that good they deserve the kill.) If the seer thinks they're in danger (or ranger, for that matter, although that's a slightly different matter) then by all means we'll institute your plan. I just think that putting the gifteds out in the open right off isn't the best plan, that's all.

Originally Posted by Duck!!!

It looks as if (as I rather expected) no one wants to do this toDay, which is rather understandable. Since I will be busy for the last five hours of the Day I shall have to look over the thread thus far and cast my votes soonish.

*shrugs* I might be happy to try it later. I just don't think right now's the time to do it. And have a good afternoon!


And with that I must dash myself. I'll be back after I've had a nap, lunch, and a shower, probably in that order. See you later in the Day!


EDIT: x'd with Dun Dun Dun, a chicken Legate, and....oh, look, I found Mnemo too! (Sorry, feeling really silly today)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, all in all, as for that Seer matter - I certainly think we should not do it now anymore. In my opinion, the best would be really to do it only when the Seer has at least some known Wolf, though Mr. Nog's suggestion is not that bad itself either (but my reasons for saying this and trying to be rather careful are because I can well imagine a Seer who can dream four consequent Nights only about innocents, of whom half are killed during that time - something like that happened to a great-grandfather of mine once upon a time). Well, the Seer will choose himself/herself anyway. And as for the protection of both eventual Seers, if two revealed themselves, may I point out that I mentioned the same possibility already a long time ago

Otherwise: To finish my thoughts - Inziladun, I feel it hard to say anything definite, I guess I'll probably move him to the "no idea" cathegory for now. Nogrod, since he posted now, seems his typical reasonable and "gambling" (or how to call that... maybe "adventurous" would sound more proper) self. Neither are likely to get my vote for either of the funny activities our village has to offer.

Ooh, speaking of that, Mister Nogrod... didn't you, perchance, give a thought to finding yourself some nice company for your retirement? I mean, you have plenty of time on your hands, what about finding yourself a charming young girl to keep you company in your lonely days? Just for a small fee I could look around and find you a lovely young lady, what says you...

[Mnemosyne]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Well I'm all for doing things the 'old-fashioned' way. If we just let the seer hand us the game there's no fun in it. I say we try it on our own for a while and if the seer thinks they've enough information to help us then fine. (Besides, if the seer tells us their dreams there'd quickly be too many people to cover. Unless of course they only told us their dream if it was a wolf.) Basically it's just not my style. If the rest of the village wants it I shan't complain (much) but I'd rather do this the hard way, if you will. (See last game, where I didn't want to use the surveys to do our detective work for us.)

Silly, the seer would not be handing us the game. Unless s/he caught a wolf we would still be left to our own consciences when voting, and the Ranger would not last forever under this plan. All it does is give the village a tactical advantage.

[Mnemosyne]

Currently debating whether to guard Boro, Legate, or Nog. They're all reasonable people, though they're heckawolves, plus they make the day more interesting. I'd hate to lose any of them Night One, until I have more information (since information they will leave) to go off of.

I'm already 90% sure of my lynch pick.

[Brinniel]

Yikes, I just realised I probably have to vote in less than an hour. Deadline is in the middle of my day which is inconvenient, so I may or may not be back before then.

About this whole seer reveal thing. While on one hand it sounds like a great way to keep the seer both alive and dreaming, it's true that so many things could go wrong. Not only could there be counter-reveals, but if we are unlucky enough to have our ranger killed overNight, then we'll definitely be in trouble. I agree it's certainly something we could do further up the road, in a few Days or at least after the seer has dreamt of a wolf. But Day One seems awfully early for a seer reveal, and really just too risky.

Okay, I don't have time to say much more and I do have to vote shortly. Unfortunately, it'll have to be somewhat random; my bad since I could've done better than random if I had woken up earlier to allow more time.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

About this whole seer reveal thing. While on one hand it sounds like a great way to keep the seer both alive and dreaming, it's true that so many things could go wrong. Not only could there be counter-reveals, but if we are unlucky enough to have our ranger killed overNight, then we'll definitely be in trouble.

Exactly! It is risky!

So compare that to what Lommy and Legate say about us cheating a victory or having an inbalanced game...

Makes me think Brinn quite good at this point.

[Nienna]

I think that Pitchwife brought an interesting point about guarding someone who might be a quiet wolf. I think that it might actually be a good idea and something to think about for toDay. Since it is quite hard to make any suspicions or to know enough about someone to trust them toDay we could guard someone in the hopes of getting a quiet wolf. We can and should use guarding to actually guard someone during the Night after toDay but I think that using it to try and give us some more information for toMorrow might be a good idea. Just a thought.

Edit: x-ed since 89

[Inziladun]

Well, I see there's been a deal of discussion by many, though precious little to aid me in my decisions thus far.
What's that, Boro? Pig loins? Not just now. But thank you anyway.
Though folks are thinking some of what strikes them as suspicious, which is good, I haven't seen much, if any, consideration of to whom the Guards should be assigned tonight, which is almost as important.
I'm thinking Nerwen perhaps. Music hath charms...etc.

x/d with Nog and Mnemo

[Pitchwife]

*wipes froth from moustache*
Ah! That was good. Now, where was I?
Oh yes. While we're discussing the laws decreed by our esteemed Mayor, there's another thing that occupied my mind during my morning labour:

Originally Posted by Mayor Eönwë

And if that person is a wolf, then he or she will not be able to join his or her fellows, which will lead to less carnage in the Night.

I take this to mean that if we happen to Guard a wolf, the beast will be prevented from any wolvish doings for the duration of that Night. For most of the time, that won't help us much, but it might be of interest in two situations:

• early on, while there are still four wolves around; if one of them is Guarded and can't join the pack, there will be only three wolves doing any Nightly wolfing, hence - if I understand Eönwë's words correctly - no double kill that Night;
• later on, if there's only one lone wolf left (provided we ever get that lucky), there'll be no Night-kill at all if he's Guarded.

Not quite sure how (or indeed if) we can use that to our advantage. I'm wondering whether it may affect the wolves' willingness to try a fake reveal if success means their Nightly forces will be weakened. To be sure, they'll gladly pay the price if it means the rest of the pack can take out the real Seer or Ranger, and it's certainly no option to waste our Guard on a likely wolf-suspect; on the other hand, it might come in handy when we have one or more suspects we want to prevent from doing any mischief just in case, while not having sufficient evidence to lynch them.
All this only as long as none of our gifteds has revealed, of course; in which case it's our duty to Guard them.
But I admit, I haven't really thought this through completely. Just thought I'd bring it up for discussion - what do you think?

(x-ed with Nog and everybody after him, need to digest)

[Mnemosyne]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

*wipes froth from moustache*
Ah! That was good. Now, where was I?
Oh yes. While we're discussing the laws decreed by our esteemed Mayor, there's another thing that occupied my mind during my morning labour:

I take this to mean that if we happen to Guard a wolf, the beast will be prevented from any wolvish doings for the duration of that Night. For most of the time, that won't help us much, but it might be of interest in two situations:

• early on, while there are still four wolves around; if one of them is Guarded and can't join the pack, there will be only three wolves doing any Nightly wolfing, hence - if I understand Eönwë's words correctly - no double kill that Night;
• later on, if there's only one lone wolf left (provided we ever get that lucky), there'll be no Night-kill at all if he's Guarded.

Not quite sure how (or indeed if) we can use that to our advantage. I'm wondering whether it may affect the wolves' willingness to try a fake reveal if success means their Nightly forces will be weakened. To be sure, they'll gladly pay the price if it means the rest of the pack can take out the real Seer or Ranger, and it's certainly no option to waste our Guard on a likely wolf-suspect; on the other hand, it might come in handy when we have one or more suspects we want to prevent from doing any mischief just in case, while not having sufficient evidence to lynch them.
All this only as long as none of our gifteds has revealed, of course; in which case it's our duty to Guard them.
But I admit, I haven't really thought this through completely. Just thought I'd bring it up for discussion - what do you think?

Nice catch!

Wish I had time to discuss it more. Since I don't,

++Guard Boro

and

++wilwarin538

Nothing personal, m'dear; just a crack theory I have right now...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

++wilwarin538

No joke? I had just come across one of her posts and was thinking "I wonder if Wilwa could be a....oh look, she's got a vote!" Awkward.


And I like Pitchie's post re: guarding wolves. Could it be taken as far as this?

Say we guard Formie. (I'll use him since he's not in the game.) Saucie, Mith, and Roa are the other wolves (again, just hypothetical) but since we've guarded Formie they only get one kill. If there's only one kill and no ranger save, can't we assume that whoever we guarded the Night before is a wolf? Or am I nuts? (Or both, because I know what Mnemo would want to say to that.) With that in mind, and I'm not saying we should, but if we suspect two people a lot on a certain Day (when there are still four wolves of course) we can lynch one and guard the other, so that way we (hopefully) decrease the kills for the following Night no matter what. Sound good? Or again, am I nuts?


EDIT: x'd since....Mnemo's last, I believe

[Mnemosyne]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

No joke? I had just come across one of her posts and was thinking "I wonder if Wilwa could be a....oh look, she's got a vote!" Awkward.


And I like Pitchie's post re: guarding wolves. Could it be taken as far as this?

Say we guard Formie. (I'll use him since he's not in the game.) Saucie, Mith, and Roa are the other wolves (again, just hypothetical) but since we've guarded Formie they only get one kill. If there's only one kill and no ranger save, can't we assume that whoever we guarded the Night before is a wolf? Or am I nuts? (Or both, because I know what Mnemo would want to say to that.) With that in mind, and I'm not saying we should, but if we suspect two people a lot on a certain Day (when there are still four wolves of course) we can lynch one and guard the other, so that way we (hopefully) decrease the kills for the following Night no matter what. Sound good? Or again, am I nuts?

Depends on how much information the mod gives us. If we aren't told whether fewer kills than we expected are due to a Ranger save or due to a lack of wolvish power, then it wouldn't be that helpful to us.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Depends on how much information the mod gives us. If we aren't told whether fewer kills than we expected are due to a Ranger save or due to a lack of wolvish power, then it wouldn't be that helpful to us.

Very true. That's why I said if we know there's no ranger save.


Steve, oh high and mighty mod, would you tell us if there was a ranger save or just let us wonder? *bows, backs away humbly*

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Say we guard Formie. (I'll use him since he's not in the game.) Saucie, Mith, and Roa are the other wolves (again, just hypothetical) but since we've guarded Formie they only get one kill. If there's only one kill and no ranger save, can't we assume that whoever we guarded the Night before is a wolf? Or am I nuts?

I was about to ask that myself... I think it depends on the Mayor. Hello? Mr Mayor? Will the village be told the reason for a missed kill? Otherwise we could end up lynching an innocent.

However, I think it might be worth following Pitchwife's suggestion (of Guarding someone in the not-quite-suspicious-enough-to-lynch class), but only if nobody else looks shiningly innocent enough to be an obvious target.

EDIT:X'd since Sally at #90.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I was about to ask that myself... I think it depends on the Mayor. Hello? Mr Mayor? Will the village be told the reason for a missed kill? Otherwise we could end up lynching an innocent.

However, I think it might be worth following Pitchwife's suggestion (of Guarding someone in the not-quite-suspicious-enough-to-lynch class), but only if nobody else looks shiningly innocent enough to be an obvious target.

EDIT:X'd since Sally at #90.

Fair enough, and I'd go for that too. Whether we hit target #2 (if you will) or wolf #4 (again, if you will) we still save a person's life. But if we get a wolf they can't kill anyone (or rather can only kill one person) where if we protect Sally the Insufferable Innocent (or whoever we think is clean) the wolves will just pick someone else.


Really, I'm up for anything. This whole guarding thing is super cool, man.


EDIT: x'd with greenie *glomps her*

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Noggy

Now even if Lommy has the reputation of the ultimate flip-flopper this kind of beats me.

I mean, on the other hand she says it's not a faultless plan (which it isn't) and thence it would be safer not to execute it. On the other hand she says it is unfair, even cheating, and it would be fairer not to do it.

Now whatever way you look at it you can come up with one message behind the conflicting scenarios: don't do it! And I tend to think the wolves would be the ones to face tougher choices if we did it. So...?

I find Nogrod's post about Lommy a bit unsettling, if truth be told. First he says that she is known as the ultimate flip-flopper and then accuses her because of flip-flopping? But what is more interesting is that what he sees as conflicting (flip-floppy) scenarios that come to have the same agenda looks to me like two different reasons for the same thing which is not flip-floppy at all.

Also, I don't like that "So...?" in the end. It looks evil. But really, it does! The sort of "I'm just dropping this idea and letting you others continue the thought, so I can't be blamed for bringing up the argument, he-he-hee." (Oh, too bad, now I'm actually imagining him behind his computer saying "he-he-hee" in a devilish voice and the image makes me giggle. I'm evidently too tired for werewolf.)


EDIT: x-ed since Brinn's vote

[Boromir88]

So, Mnemo unveils her plan straight away, and has to adjust the original idea, because the Mayor said we can't Night guard the same person two nights in a row. That is how I understand the Ranger was brought into the situation.

Now lets just see what everyone's said about it...

wilwa in post 8:

This plan sounds way to good and way to easy to be true. There must be a rule against us protecting the same person that many time in a row, though I suppose if we can't then we could just alternate with the Ranger,one Night we protect Seer next Night Ranger does, and hope the the Ranger can stay alive.

which crossed with Mnemo's 7, where she brought up the ranger too. Two people who thought the same thing, something that wilwa pointed out and it appears now Mnemo didn't appreciate the comparison.

Kitanna's post 9

This seems like an ok idea, but eventually, probably sooner than later, the wolves can manipulate this. How do you plan to organize such an undertaking?

The quick dismissiveness of the post looks suspicious. I read it as "Ya, ok, whatever...but the wolves will find a way around it so no point in continuing.

Plus, it really wouldn't be difficult to organize. Seer reveals, we protect seer Night 1 (the ranger will know because who we Night guard is known) then Ranger takes seer next night. The risk is since everyone is not on the same page with the plan, it would be unwise to do it right away, for only chaos can ensue from innocents not being on the same page, add on top wolves trying to mess things up.

Kitanna in 13 too caught my attention

This may seem like a good idea, but think about the innocents who will undoubtedly be put on the line. If the seer reveals him/herself and then reveals his/her dreams every day innocents will be revealed to the village, making them easy targets for wolves at Night.

Ahh honourably trying to look out for the innocents best interest are we? Balderdash. I would happily be killed if it means the seer is not, and so should any other innocent. The seer is our best weapon, and if we can be assured that the seer is kept alive to get multiple dreams, it's worth the sacrifice.

And Inzil's 22 is why I said he was looking like a wolf to me again

What's all this talk about our Seer coming out in the open now? I can see the argument for it, but it needs some serious thought before putting it into action. Like Kitanna said, there's probably a way for the wolves to get around it.

He rather forcibly rejects the idea with what I read as a rhetorical question, but then says there is some sense to it if we give it serious thought. Then goes back to agree with Kitanna's and be just as dismissive as Kit.

Did you really think we would be foolish enough to just go full steam ahead with an unconventional plan and not talk it out before asking the seer to reveal?

I have to stop here, I thought I'd be able to cram everything in, in roughly 40 minutes, but can't. I'll finish with the rest of the reactions to Mnemo's plan, when I get back, and then vote.

Edit: crossed since sally's post 90

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I take this to mean that if we happen to Guard a wolf, the beast will be prevented from any wolvish doings for the duration of that Night. For most of the time, that won't help us much, but it might be of interest in two situations:

• early on, while there are still four wolves around; if one of them is Guarded and can't join the pack, there will be only three wolves doing any Nightly wolfing, hence - if I understand Eönwë's words correctly - no double kill that Night;
• later on, if there's only one lone wolf left (provided we ever get that lucky), there'll be no Night-kill at all if he's Guarded.

Not quite sure how (or indeed if) we can use that to our advantage. I'm wondering whether it may affect the wolves' willingness to try a fake reveal if success means their Nightly forces will be weakened. To be sure, they'll gladly pay the price if it means the rest of the pack can take out the real Seer or Ranger, and it's certainly no option to waste our Guard on a likely wolf-suspect; on the other hand, it might come in handy when we have one or more suspects we want to prevent from doing any mischief just in case, while not having sufficient evidence to lynch them.
All this only as long as none of our gifteds has revealed, of course; in which case it's our duty to Guard them.
But I admit, I haven't really thought this through completely. Just thought I'd bring it up for discussion - what do you think?

(x-ed with Nog and everybody after him, need to digest)

I have been actually thinking about the same at first, but it sounded too good and too advantageous to be true. Well, I think you are not right at least in the second thought - I mean in the one that if we have 3 or less Wolves and we Guard one of them, there will be no kill that Night. Of course there will be, from the two other remaining Wolves.

But it indeed seems - or at least you support me in thinking so - that if we have 4 WWs and Guard one of them, there will be only one kill per Night. Isn't it a bit strong? Well, maybe (though it could be argued that we have little chance to pick and guard a Wolf early on, and later on, again, we will probably have only three WWs, so not much of a difference). But indeed, in the beginning, it might be interesting to try to vote for some "ambiguous" players and thus see if we can either protect a person or with good enough luck nail a totally unsuspicious Wolf. Let's not overdo it, however, as by protecting a Wolf, we are sort of throwing away the tool to keep alive those players to whom we trust, which is the main point of this Guard thing. I think at least after we have just 3 Wolves it loses its sense to guard people who we think are Wolves. (Although, still we'd protect them from communicating with their packmates, but then - well, not that important in comparison to protecting somebody, I think, although it would be a nice experiment to create nice havoc among the Wolves Still, as we don't know who is the Wolf, and if we knew, we'd probably rather lynch him than protect him, I think it's a bit pointless.)

Enough of rant, anyway, conclusion from this: I am really wondering about voting to protect Lommy then, like I said already above with the same reasons. But I'll see - I'll probably be gone now for a while, but hope to post at least once to vote before the DL, and see what's up. Till then, probably...

EDIT: x-ed since Mnemo

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, I think you are not right at least in the second thought - I mean in the one that if we have 3 or less Wolves and we Guard one of them, there will be no kill that Night. Of course there will be, from the two other remaining Wolves.

Yep, of course there will, and if you read my post again you'll see I was talking about those points in the game when we have either all 4 wolves or only 1 of them left, not what happens inbetween with three or two.
Apart from that, I pretty much agree with you.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

Anyway, as for other things. I only have to note that I am actually scared how exactly Lommy's thoughts reflect mine.

Great minds think alike.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean, on the other hand she says it's not a faultless plan (which it isn't) and thence it would be safer not to execute it. On the other hand she says it is unfair, even cheating, and it would be fairer not to do it.

Now whatever way you look at it you can come up with one message behind the conflicting scenarios: don't do it! And I tend to think the wolves would be the ones to face tougher choices if we did it. So...?

You can call me a conservative, but the idea doesn't generally seem like something I'd like to try and for both of the reasons, even though they are a bit contradictory. However, it makes sense if you think it the way that you wouldn't like to try a plan that feels a bit like cheating AND may not work at all. That's how I feel.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So let's not even discuss it? Why? For not realising it might be a good way to proceed for the village? Should we rather just rant and then vote randomly? It hardly fits your person Lommy... So why all this?

I said I DO NOT want random votes. I hate them. But there could be discussion about something else. And I just simply don't like the idea, it's not carefully enough thought through and it feels unfair, like I already said. I would feel the same way with any role, but I don't get why it makes me wolvish that I criticise it: I think it's rather the contrary, I think those who are the most eager to develop the ideas may be some people desperate to hide their fur.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So compare that to what Lommy and Legate say about us cheating a victory or having an inbalanced game...

have you been drinking or are you a wolf? You're just being way too aggressive to be a thoughtful innocent and it's kind of annoying me - because I quite clearly did say that I think the plan is too risky and it's a part of the reason why I don't like it. You even talked about me saying that. And now you're claiming I didn't say that. It doesn't make any sense.

I'm getting bad vibes from Kitanna, but I get that every single time I play with her. That's why I'm not enthusiastic about the bandwagon against her.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If we protect Legate and there are two kills we know he's an innocent! Interesting... I hadn't thought of that earlier...

Not necessarily - unless Eönwë says something definite in the narrations, our ranger may just have made a save. But that's a very good point and it makes guard-voting possible wolves [(even) more] sensible.


xed with everybody

[satansaloser2005]

Nog: If it helps, last game I was an ordo and had top post count. I fluctuate, that's all. And I'm not a wolf so it hardly matters, does it?

[satansaloser2005]

Oh, and Lommie? Steve said he would indicate a save in the narration, so we would in fact know the difference.

[Nienna]

Zil worries me the most right now. He may get my lynch vote. His vote for Kit seems like a jump on a bandwagon.

and

++Guard Mnemo

reasons stated in a previous post.

[Thinlómien]

*tries very hard not to start suspecting Nogrod*

But I can just so perfectly see where Greenie is coming from. (And a double-patricide would be a lot of fun anyway. )

The problem is just that I think Nogrod probably is an innocent, even though he provokes my automatic wolf alarm reactions because he is disagreeing with me (not seeing completely valid points! and suspecting people like Greenie whom I don't suspect and feeling rather knee-jerk in that) and accusing me baselessly.

And now reading what I just wrote makes me suspicious of him. Blast.

*hurries off to make a quick list to clear her head before the DL*


edit: xed with all - thanks for clarifying Sally

[Thinlómien]

Feel goodish
Mnemo
Greenie
Cabbie
Legate
Sally

No idea
Nilp
Nerwen
Brinn
Boro
Inziladun
Wilwa
Pitch
Alona
Hakon
Nessa

Feel badish
Nogrod
Shasta
Kit

Won't have time to elaborate, and besides given that I have had almost zero time for ww toDay it wouldn't even be much, so that's it. I can elaborate on one though - I have a bad feeling about Shasta, he's too eager. But most of my bad feeling may be due to him disagreeing with me rather completely (not the least about my innocence ).

I'm starting to see the point in random votes... (Not really though, I just said that to make it clear I have no idea who to vote for. And the sooner I go to sleep, the better. Arg. Maybe I'll have a look at the votes that have been cast this far because to be honest I haven't paid any attention to the general situation...)


edit: mass-xed again

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

That's very, very good point - makes me think good of McC - but of course (and I see that's been mentioned also), there is this fact that if there ARE two kills, we get a known innocent. (Who, though, btw, cannot be Night Guarded the Night after, so he's as good as dead soon - or maybe not? Because the Ranger can protect him, which of course is likely, unless he has some better person to protect.)

Hey, good point. So we should actually night guard someone we want to have as a known innocent? Although - risking the wrath of Pater Nogger - that seems a bit unfair to me too, but somehow not as bad as the seer tactic and given that the wolves profit from it too by getting a ready made kill list, it's maybe just fair. And there probably is some hole in this tactic, or possibly, but no time to think of it now! That's for toMorrow.

edit: xed again

[Thinlómien]

Oh sorry Nienna that just proves you're in my no idea category I guess...

edit: xed and would like to argue but not now

[Thinlómien]

Of the ones who have got votes this far it's be Kit or Nog for me... but the problem is that I can see myself being tricked to suspect either of them as innocent very easily...

++guard Legate

for simply wanting to know his role and because everybody seems to agree anyway so why not do it.

Nog, the explanation for the "not necessarily" is in the same sentence - not sure how did you miss that.

edit: xed with people

[wilwarin538]

Alright, have to say I didn't read to indepth, cause I was scared of missing the DL, which is in 5 minutes, right? I hope I'm not rushing for nothing.

So I'm tempted to vote for Mnemo just cause A: she didn't give to much of a reason, and B: basically everything I said so far was about the idea she came up with. But I probably won't, cause I don't like adding other people into the mix.

So I really really hate doing this, cause I didn't have the chance to read her posts as much as I would have liked, but I have to vote to try to save myself:

++Kitanna

And since Legate is so awesome:

++ Guard Legate

[Nienna]

Dear Village,

Slight fail on the lynching of our Seer. You are, however, redeemed in that we quite possibly have found us a wolf.

Love,
Me

Ok so I think it is worth lynching Legate on the very possible chance that he is a wolf. Many people voted to guard him yesterday because he was being somewhat suspicious. We also need to keep the kills down to one now that we have lost our seer so lynching a wolf will be in our best interest.

Twice the voting to be analyzed now.

[wilwarin538]

So didn't actually have to go anywhere quite yet (had my times wrong by a bit), so here are all of our Seer's posts, and my personal commentary, aswell as some boldings I've made in the quotes:

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I suppose I need to abandon my hermit lifestyle for a while. *sigh*

(Mnemo quote was here, about her plan)

This seems like an ok idea, but eventually, probably sooner than later, the wolves can manipulate this. How do you plan to organize such an undertaking?

Edit: Eonwe clarified the rules...

Didn't seem too comfortable with the idea, but seemed willing to discuss it.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

This may seem like a good idea, but think about the innocents who will undoubtedly be put on the line. If the seer reveals him/herself and then reveals his/her dreams every day innocents will be revealed to the village, making them easy targets for wolves at Night.

And what if something happens to the ranger early on? Then we have the seer for two days and then it's curtains. If that happens early on, the village will have to go on without the aid of the seer's dreams. Plus by that point a few innocents will be vulnerable.

I understand her concerns here, but don't really agree with them, but from a Seer's perspective I can see that this would make sense. No hints to a dream here though.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I see the topic of discussion remains on Mnemo and Wilwa's conversation regarding the seer revealing. That's not surprising. Though I had hoped for a little more discussion, maybe a big red flag pointing to one of the villagers, declaring him/her "WOLF" in big letters.

However, that hasn't happened and I need to vote in the next twenty minutes. I get off work right at the deadline and there is no guarantee I can make it home at lunch to contribute.

I'm going back to ponder, but I'm thinking the chances of a random vote today are likely.

Her "big red flag" comment here now really stands out to me. I think this pretty much tells us she had not dreamt of a wolf, since she was hoping someone would be "declared" a wolf, and then said it has not happened. This would also make sense since she was against "the plan", if she had found out a wolf she probably would have agreed to it a bit more.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I went back and read Mnemo and Wilwa's conversation (and all posts that responded early on to it). Since this is the highlight right now it seems like a logical place to look for baddies. However, time is short for me so I'll make a few points quick and come home on my lunch break to finish any thoughts.


Mnemo is quick to declare this route this easiest, life in WW is never easy though. It doesn't feel wolfish, not so early, but that doesn't absolve Mnemo.
In answering my query on the idea Mnemo states that the seer has the choice to reveal. Another innocent move, but makes me wonder about Mnemo. However, nothing Mnemo has said screams wolf to me. I want to watch Mnemo over the next few days, but I have a feeling a wolf wolf wouldn't make a suggestion for a reveal so early, but would rather encourage the idea and thrive on any and all confusion.

I will return in a few hours to make a quick statement about Wilwa's role with Mnemo's suggestion and then a vote.

See here how she kinda goes back and forth between finding her suspicious and then not? Could be that she didn't want to blatanly say she was innocent, but then also didn't want her to look too suspicious. I think she may have wanted to bring forward all reasons why someone may find Mnemo suspicious, and then state a defense for it, perhaps to sway people away from voting her. If Mnemo wasn't dead and Kit still was I would have read this and probably thought Mnemo innocent. That is all of course just my own speculation.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I don't have the time toDay to read everything I've missed. But my guard vote won't be totally random. I was going to vote to guard Mnemo, but since she stirred up a lot of discussion she doesn't seem a likely Night 2 kill. Rather I'd like to guard one of those who haven't spoken yet. These sorts are usually kills early on because they leave no trail for the villagers. So that leaves Hakon and alonariel as the only two who have yet to say anything.

++Guard Hakon

alonariel gave a reason for being absent, but Hakon has said nothing.

This is where people started finding her suspicious. It was a very odd move. The fact that she was thinking of guarding Mnemo sort of, at least to me, strengthens what I said about the previous quote.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I have about seven minutes to get back to work.

I've been mulling over the thread, trying to find something/someone who jumps out.

Mnemo and Wilwa both jumped out initially, but neither one feels particularly wicked. Of other, more vocal players, no one has said anything of note that I find over whelming suspicious. The only things I've seen that worried me are Mnemo's vote for Wilwa, but I think that's probably a time constraint thing, and then there's Brinn's vote for McCaber. She stated her vote would be somewhat random, but it surprises me she would pick someone who hadn't yet posted.

But I'm down to the wire and have to vote now. I will be more active on Day 2 because work doesn't fall on the deadline that day.

++Brinn

Kinda random, I don't care that she voted randomly for McCaber. That's something I would do, but she gave a reason that "he wasn't contributing" and that doesn't seem right to me. Granted my own reasons for voting Brinn aren't much better. However, I am at a loss for a real suspect.

Despite the suspiciousness of Mnemo's vote, she doesn't want to vote for her, and instead votes for someone with a not-quite-as-suspicious vote.


So there they are, with my thoughts. I feel that Mnemo was the most likely dream choice, but of course I could be wrong. She seems to be the only one she really mentions a lot.

Have to head out for real now, will be back in about 45 minutes or less with all of the duck's posts.

EDIT: Xposted with Boro, and removed highlight from Kit's vote

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

have you been drinking or are you a wolf? You're just being way too aggressive to be a thoughtful innocent and it's kind of annoying me - because I quite clearly did say that I think the plan is too risky and it's a part of the reason why I don't like it. You even talked about me saying that. And now you're claiming I didn't say that. It doesn't make any sense.

Me, aggressive? Like you hadn't seen me being aggressive like years ago?

Sorry Lommy, a bad point. I said I suspected you because you made your best to discredit the 0plan and took both views to hammer your point in. You said it was risky, yes, but you also said it was unfair to the wolves...

Originally Posted by Lommy

Not necessarily - unless Eönwë says something definite in the narrations, our ranger may just have made a save. But that's a very good point and it makes guard-voting possible wolves [(even) more] sensible.

What are you thinking about in here? Not necessarily? Why not? If we protect as a village someone and there are two kills then that one must be innocent. What are you thinking?

Okay tell that t6oMorrow, now we need to make decisions for toDay...