Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

As for Nilps point a while ago, that two kills would mean Legate was a known innocent. The wolves could have just spent the kill on Legate the next night, bye bye known innocent. But as we know that didn't happen.

And our Ranger wouldn't have guarded such an obvious target?

I know we have to test such an obvious state of things, but please, consider the alternatives. For all we know they're just setting things up in case we guard one of their fellows. Like, we lynch an innocent now, and then when we get another one-kill NIGHT we roll our eyes and say, 'they're bluffing again.'

If you're so intent to shed Legate's blood then at least spend some time looking at other things. We had a full DAY's vote (save two villagers), we had someone propose a bold plan (and the supporters and detractors thereof). There are lots of other things to look at, village, and we're spending too much time scrutinising but a part of it. Think about that.

*fondly remembers the times he has been tied to the stake just to test theories*

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

And our Ranger wouldn't have guarded such an obvious target?

I know we have to test such an obvious state of things, but please, consider the alternatives. For all we know they're just setting things up in case we guard one of their fellows. Like, we lynch an innocent now, and then when we get another one-kill NIGHT we roll our eyes and say, 'they're bluffing again.'

Well yeah, the Ranger probably would have protected him toNight, but the wolves would have just gotten him the following Night. Known innocents never stay alive for that long, we all know that. But right now, so early in the game with still so many players and all the wolves, 1 known innocent is not that big of a threat to the wolves. Maybe on like Day 9 when it's down to 8 people or something, then I would understand. But now? No. The bluff isn't worth it, it doesn't get them any further ahead.

I also seriously doubt that, if they did give up the extra kill, that they would ever do it a second time, that would just put them way to far behind.

Anyway, I do agree that we probably shouldn't only concentrate on this one topic, despite how compelling it may be. I'm going to go take a closer look at the vote break downs that have been provided and see if anything stands out for me.

x'posted with Greenie x 2