Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Eönwë]

The Night came again, swift and cold. The villagers were lamenting their losses, as no wolves had yet been killed, whereas three innocent villagers and their Seer had been taken.

But one by one, the village fell into sleep. All except one. Lommy was sitting, lamenting the death of Legate.

"I told them. I told them. But would they listen?" she said to herself, over and over again. She lost all hope of them ever being able to save the village from the wolves.

Then, she felt something cold touch the back of her neck, and she saw and felt no more.

---

The next morning, the village assembled in the square, as was the custom by now. Eönwë spoke to the crowd. "Are we all here?"

"I am sad to say that we are missing Lommy." said Nogrod. There was no trace of her in her home, and it took a long time for people to find anything that would give them a clue as to what had happened that night.

Eventually, her blood-soaked remains were found left in the old well. This well had mysteriously dried up a few days before the first wolf arrived, and they had spent the last few weeks filling it up. It was now almost filled up, only around two metres deep.

They decided to leave Lommy's body where it was found, and continue filling in the well, which was now also a grave, and it was known as the Well of Lommy until the last days of the village, and the gardens of Upper Downsbury never again received as much love and attention as when Lommy had been alive.

Nogrod said, "I should have given her the protection instead of being so selfish!" The realisation that she was dead had still not sunk in for Nogrod and Greenie.

They went back to the village square. Eönwë stood there, with the same gloomy expression that had become part of his face for the last few days.

"Today we really need to catch a wolf. We have already lost four, and they have lost none. Please make your votes today count. We do not want to lose any more of us.

Living:
A Little Green- the village butcher
alonariel- the village blacksmith
Boromir88- the village pig farmer
Brinniel- the village witch
Hakon- the village innkeeper
Inziladun- the village brewer
McCaber- chief (only) miner, head of miners' guild
Nerwen- a wandering minstrel
Nessa Telrunya- the village seamstress
Nienna- the village potter
Nilpaurion Felagund- the village fool
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois
Pitchwife- the village mason
satansaloser2005- The village librarian (Mistress of the books)
Shastanis Althreduin- the village apothecary
wilwarin538- the village barmaid

The Dead
Kitanna- the village hermit - Seer
Mnemosyne- the village coquette - Innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc- the village broker - Innocent
Thinlómien- the village chief gardener - Innocent


The sun has risen on Day 3. You may resume posting.

[Nienna]

Bah.

[Nienna]

Congrats wolves. You have found a way to circumvent being found out by the village by night guards. You are also giving up killing an extra person each night. I'll take that though. We lynched an innocent yesterday but we are up two innocents as the wolves have given up two extra kills.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nienna

we are up two innocents as the wolves have given up two extra kills.

Which is exactly why I wasn't expecting them to do this a second time. Just seems too crazy for me. Which is why Nog will probably be guilty, they wanted us to be unsure with this Night Guard thing, to protect themselves, and it worked. I'm very confused.

[Nienna]

Now I think we should use the NG thing to save those we want to keep around. Since the wolves have succeeded in making us unsure of the role of the person guarded. Back to good ole vote analyzing, theories, and suspicions for us now.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Now I think we should use the NG thing to save those we want to keep around. Since the wolves have succeeded in making us unsure of the role of the person guarded. Back to good ole vote analyzing, theories, and suspicions for us now.

You are indeed correct in that it seems the Night Guard has been rendered useless as a tool for finding innocents. That tactic by the wolves would seem to result in a slower, but safer path to victory for them.
I wonder, for what reason did they choose Lommy? Just getting rid of a potential threat?

[Hakon]

I bet it has to do with the fact that Lommie was one of the only people to not vote for Legate. Inziladun, she did vote for you. Maybe you are a wolf and are worried because she was on to you so you convinced your fellow wolves to support killing her.

With looking at Legate voters we should definitely look at some of the ones who voted earlier in the day. I think there is a large chance that some wolf just wanted to get their vote out of the way and they knew they would be voting for Legate.

I agree with you Nogrod that we should look at the Inziladun voters.

One thing we also need to think about is part of the safety the wolves gain from killing one a night. Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Now I think we should use the NG thing to save those we want to keep around. Since the wolves have succeeded in making us unsure of the role of the person guarded. Back to good ole vote analyzing, theories, and suspicions for us now.

I do agree. Whatever gain the wolves have had from their tactics of seemingly shooting themselves to the leg is that we can't take the NG's as seer dreams. Sure that option is lost.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.

Who says we except them to always follow a pattern set on the first Night of their action? Wouldn't that be quite foolish? As I said, we can no longer think of the NG's as seer dreams but neither can we take them as signs of guilt (Legate proved that). Like Nienna said it is back to the drawing board where we need to consider every Night individually.

Okay for me it's now +2AM and I'm getting to bed. Happily it's Saturday tomorrow and I have more time to hang around.

[Hakon]

Well now we know the wolves are killing one a night. I kind of feel like this is partially Legate's fault that they have done it again. I feel this way since yesterday when defending himself he outlined how if the wolves killed one a night they could escape lynching more easily.

One thing I would like to state is that we need to look at the Legate voters. There has to be at least one wolf amongst them. My guess is that the wolf is one of the earlier voters rather than the ones who voted Legate closer to deadline. I think that if there is one wolf amongst the voters this is the case but if there are more than one then this is probably not the case for all of them.

Another thing is the wolves probably expect us to lynch Nogrod today. I think we should try to avoid doing that.

[wilwarin538]

bah indeed.

Major headache here from the all the headdesking I did yesterday. I cannot believe this.

Hakon, practically everyone was a Legate voter. So yes, I'm positive there are wolves in there, probably 2, if not 3.

This is unreal....I don't even know what to say about this. I don't think it's a good idea to lynch Nogrod, at least not now cause I'm sure that's exactly what the wolves want from us. But he'll probably end up being guilty in the end, just to spite us.

uh

I'm at work now, but I'll be home in about 3 hours. Then I should be around for a couple hours. Much more tomorrow though.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Hakon

Well now we know the wolves are killing one a night. I kind of feel like this is partially Legate's fault that they have done it again. I feel this way since yesterday when defending himself he outlined how if the wolves killed one a night they could escape lynching more easily.

Well maybe his fault, or maybe to his honour - even if unintended.

I mean we could be two more down right now. So instead of being four down we could be six down... and continue the multiplation if you wish...

And like yesterDay I still think that is a bad tactics for them. Yeah, they kind of succeeded yesterDay but with what cost? With every kill they don't do we gain more Days to read them and we have better chances of starting to find patterns from their actions.

One thing I would like to state is that we need to look at the Legate voters. There has to be at least one wolf amongst them.

Heh, almost the whole village... If you're looking at the votes I'd rather look at those Inzil-voters. I mean it was so clear we were going to lynch Legate from the first hours on (unless something really drastic happened) that a cool wolf would have done a reasonable job hiding in the opposition that would look soo good afterwards.

To take my idea with a pinch of salt I must say I was really starting to suspect Lommy again late yesterDay as she was so outstandingly adamant with her defence of Legate. It would have been really the best thing a wolf could have done yesterDay. But alas, she was innocent as well... and dead now.

Originally Posted by Inzil

That tactic by the wolves would seem to result in a slower, but safer path to victory for them.

How so, "safer"? I mean the only thing we can be happy now is that they play it that way and let more of us live and thence give us time. We've already won one full Day-Night cycle more to catch them. So let's look at the brighter side of this now.

For by making these two choices I think they have actually made a cardinal error as now they face a dilemma whichever way they choose from now on. They can continue with killing only one per Night and thus giving us even more Days to find them or they can change their tactics and produce some innocents to us which, now as they appear later in the game, have a lot stronger weight and our ability to actually guard them is much better...

So chew on that you lupine child-killers!

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How so, "safer"? I mean the only thing we can be happy now is that they play it that way and let more of us live and thence give us time. We've already won one full Day-Night cycle more to catch them. So let's look at the brighter side of this now.

For by making these two choices I think they have actually made a cardinal error as now they face a dilemma whichever way they choose from now on. They can continue with killing only one per Night and thus giving us even more Days to find them or they can change their tactics and produce some innocents to us which, now as they appear later in the game, have a lot stronger weight and our ability to actually guard them is much better...

'Safer' in that the lack of known innocents has been a serious impediment to us, wouldn't you say? Get enough known innocents and it isn't much of a step to getting probable wolves. It has yet to come back and bite them, though with any luck that will change today.
Sorting out the Legate voters will indeed be tough, as they obviously can't all be wolves. I'll take a look at them though.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

'Safer' in that the lack of known innocents has been a serious impediment to us, wouldn't you say? Get enough known innocents and it isn't much of a step to getting probable wolves.

We can basically hold on two known innocents - and only so far our ranger is alive... And with a village of 15+ that is of no "serious impediment" to us anyway.

The known innocents would help us later though - and there's the stinger for the cowardly Night-stabbers: the chance of your Days of having two kills comes closer to the end every hour and if you keep up killing just one it will be a miserable and hard journey for you to reach to the end needing to win so many more lynches, but if you start killing two you produce us known innocents just at the moment we need them and they can make a difference then when our numbers are less! We'll just need to start picking the NG's not for trying their guilt but actually for trusting them to be worth the protection to follow.

Think about that the next Night wolves...

[wilwarin538]

Here and reading.

[wilwarin538]

not too much to read...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

....

I mean we could be two more down right now. So instead of being four down we could be six down... and continue the multiplation if you wish...

And like yesterDay I still think that is a bad tactics for them. Yeah, they kind of succeeded yesterDay but with what cost? With every kill they don't do we gain more Days to read them and we have better chances of starting to find patterns from their actions.

Heh, almost the whole village... If you're looking at the votes I'd rather look at those Inzil-voters. I mean it was so clear we were going to lynch Legate from the first hours on (unless something really drastic happened) that a cool wolf would have done a reasonable job hiding in the opposition that would look soo good afterwards.

.....

How so, "safer"? I mean the only thing we can be happy now is that they play it that way and let more of us live and thence give us time. We've already won one full Day-Night cycle more to catch them. So let's look at the brighter side of this now.

For by making these two choices I think they have actually made a cardinal error as now they face a dilemma whichever way they choose from now on. They can continue with killing only one per Night and thus giving us even more Days to find them or they can change their tactics and produce some innocents to us which, now as they appear later in the game, have a lot stronger weight and our ability to actually guard them is much better...

So chew on that you lupine child-killers!

Exactly. This is exactly why I was so sure Legate had to be guilty because I don't get why they are giving up this chance. If I was a wolf I'd be so excited to be able to kill that many people at once, since it's how they win. Since one of them will eventually die (thus losing double kills) it's not like there would have been that many known innocents created, and they would have been able to eventually kill those known innocents anyway. I completely don't get it. We really just now have far more time to discuss and analyse everything.

Basically: thank you wolves for giving up your advantage and giving us more time to hunt you down! We really appreciate it!

So either we're dealing with inexperienced wolves (don't really know who they could even be though), or experienced wolves who are trying to make us think they are inexperienced. Probably the latter.

Wow. I don't get this. It's so screwed up.

So. I'm exhausted, had a long day filled with really annoying customers, but I'm gonna stay around for about the next half hour, then I should be on fairly consistently tomorrow.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Bah, humbug.

Well, we got one good thing out of yesterDAY. Nogrod shall be innocent until proven guilty. That's good, fellow villagers.

Why Lommy, though? Well, the only thing I can come up with is that there were only three non-Legate voters: himself, her, and . . . me. Paint a bulls-eye at me, will you? And on a bloody weekend, at that?

Be back with a lynch tally. *gags*