Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Boro's the only person I trust in this village. Can you hold your vote in reserve in case there's some voting shinenigans near the end?

I don't see why not, but it is a little unsettling as to why you have so much trust in me.

Dah, nah, nah, nah, nah...Swineman! Swineman! Oh you have to love the late nighters.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Inziladun Guard-voted for you three hours before DAY 1 ended. A Werewolf would not take unnecessary risk in having a fellow Night Guarded.

Nienna I thought was an innocent who's making sure nobody stays hidden, making cases against other villagers and such, but after yesterDAY she might just be spreading suspicion evenly throughout the village, helping the Werewolves hide in the general aura of suspicion.

Brinniel's posts are too clean, so little to read there. My only points against her are Inziladun's DAY 3 vote and yesterDAY's bandwaggon, but they are, I believe, strong enough points for me not to trust her.

Sally's always been hard to read for me, as she seems to be able to sustain whatever insanity I use up in DAY 1. For that reason I've always been getting evil vibes from her, almost always wrongly. But again, after yesterDAY's bandwaggon, and now her early vote . . .

My major points against McCaber are his DAY 2 change of attitude towards Legate and his general hiddenness. I have this creepy feeling that most of our Werewolves are submarines. I have the same feeling of uneasiness with Greenie, even though I have no other points of suspicion against her.

Pitchwife is a clueless innocent or a very bold Werewolf. I'm inclined to think the former, but there's enough doubt that I do not trust him to cast the possible saving vote for the village.

I think that's all of them? I may have issues with some of your posting, Boro (happily no major ones), but the fact is that Inziladun vote convinced me enough in your innocence. Is that good enough?

[Boromir88]

I just went through Inzil's posts again, wow has he left absolutely nothing. Anyone he rarely defended anyone, and most people who he did interact with are dead.

The live ones then that Inzil had some kind of interaction with.

Nienna in #235 and #239, looks a little odd, he basically bluntly calls her a wolf and jokes that she will kill him during the night.

In #406 he says that Nilp has a cunning mind and he responds to Pitch

In #412 he says he almost wanted to vote for Nilp, but decides to vote Brinn and guard Pitch.

Inzil's track record on Day 1 and 2 were to vote for innocents (Kitanna and Legate) and guard innocents (me and Nogrod)...I'm innocent at this point you'll have to believe me or not.

Unknowns are on Day 3 vote for Brinn and guard Pitch. Inzil has had to of interacted with one wolf, if not multiple ones, but the problem is he played very tight to the vest and limitted the number of people he mentioned.

Another interesting thing to note about Inzil's behavior, is after my suspicions of him on Day 1, he comes back and jokes around if I've had anything to do with Mnemo's death. After Nienna and Nilp go after him, he turns into a jokester again towards them. So, that makes Nienna and Nilp look pretty innocent to me. Usually, I take a joking towards other players as a suspicious sign, but it should really depend upon the players (evidence sally and my performance in Lari's game, which was an utter disaster).

However, I think Inzil's reactions to Nienna's suspicions make Nienna look innocent:

Did I say I suspected you? I was just noting that you and Legate appear to have a quite good understanding of the Code of the Wolves.~#257

I've used this as a wolf, and seen it many times from other wolves..."What? Oh, I wasn't suspecting you, me calling you a wolf was all a misunderstanding."

From the unknowns that Inzil interacted with, from most suspicious to least:

Pitch
Brinn
Nilp
Nienna

I will get to what all the living players said about Inzil sometime after work.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Words. I'm more of a numbers guy, though.

So my thoughts in summary:

Will not vote for:
Boro
Pitchwife
Green

Might not vote for, but keeping an eye on:
Brinniel
Nienna

Wil most likely vote for:
McCaber
Sally

What do we do with the Guard vote, btw? In case we get a Werewolf today do we risk keeping the Ranger from doing xyr NIGHT work? (I'm inclined not to vote Guard toDAY, but am willing to listen to someone else's plan.)

[Boromir88]

Oh and that leave the living ones who Inzil had no interaction with at all (or nothing major that struck my attention)

sally
McCaber
Greenie

I said a while ago about how out of all the Legate and Nogrod guard votes the only repeat was wilwa, which made me think that the wolves were playing really spread apart from eachother, not trying to leave any connections. So, the 3 listed here also look mighty suspicious, just based on Inzil not mentioning them.

We'll see about their posts too. Nienna and Nilp, since I feel good about you right now, mind if we split up sally's votes? There is no way I'm going to be able to get through all of them I don't care how much free time I have tomorrow.

[A Little Green]

Whoa. YesterDay really took me by surprise. When I went to bed two hours before DL the situation was McCaber with two votes and Pitch and Sally with one, and people were talking about how suspicious Pitch was. When I went to check the thread I expected to find McCaber or Pitchwife lynched. I was stunned to see it was Wilwa - I don't think she was even considered an option two hours before DL! That was some serious bit of last-minute bandwaggoning, I'd say.

Actually, I wonder if the wolves orchestrated that. If so, why? If those in danger of getting lynched (McCaber, Pitchwife, Sally to some extent) were all innocent, why bother? Therefore, if the bandwagon was manipulated by a wolf, it would make sense that one of the potential lynchees was one too.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Actually, I wonder if the wolves orchestrated that. If so, why? If those in danger of getting lynched (McCaber, Pitchwife, Sally to some extent) were all innocent, why bother? Therefore, if the bandwagon was manipulated by a wolf, it would make sense that one of the potential lynchees was one too.

That's what I was thinking, too. The Werewolves might have started using their numbers to their advantage with that last-minute bandwaggon, when they saw an opening due to the vote spread.

This is why we must spread our votes as little as possible toDAY. We do not want giving the Werewolves the chance to use their numbers again.

[A Little Green]

Another thing that just popped into my mind, just wondering if it's too crazy to be true. If a wolf saw that his fellow is in danger of getting lynched, why wouldn't he just make a bandwagon against someone who had already received votes? What I'm saying is, what if both Pitchwife and McCaber are wolves and that is why the third wolf decided to start a bandwagon against Wilwa instead? *off to check that bandwagon for candidates for the third wolf in my theory*

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Might McCaber have been wilwa's Hunter target yesterDAY?

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=576

Aside from the obvious (she thought he's a Wolf, so she voted for him), notice the arrow sign. She usually uses the Silmaril sign in her posts (when she's not beginning with a quote).

Grasping at straws much?

If we lynch an innocent toDAY, it's game over. I have to be sure that the recipient of my vote is a Werewolf.