Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Roa_Aoife · 10-17-2009, 09:11 PM

Nerwen

Day 1

Post 1- Banter with Greenie, says the wolves will want to appear helpful with out giving themselves away

Post 2- Points out that no one can really prove their alibis

Post 3- Points out that Wilwa's post #21 is little more than telling people to post more, explains to Morsul that the narrations don't have any clues

Post 4- Tells Morsul that the vote isn't meant to be random

Post 5- Doesn't like Hakon's vote

Post 6- response to Morsul: says she had no theories on wolves because it was too early to tell, doesn't think the wolves would have trouble with Crayon's question

Post 7- Response to SPM: Loslote's only played one game, and why does he suspect her

SPM did state that he suspected Nerwen, but he never gave a reason why. Was he tossing suspicion around, jumping onto Morsul's expressed suspicion, or distancing a fellow wolf?

Post 8- doesn't find Nienna's reaction to Morsul's vote suspicious, says that Nienna's comment on Hakon was similar to something she did as a wolf in the last game

Post 9- Votes SPM

I would like to know who she was going to vote pre-reveal, but it looks like it would have been Nienna from the way her posts were going, as she's the only one Nerwen had expressed suspicion towards.

Post 10- Response to Inzil: says it's unlikely that Pitch is the Agent

Post 11- Accepts Pitch's reason for revealing so early. Suggests that the Changed and the dreamer might appreciate suggestions

Post 12- "Well, it's not as though he left that many posts for them to go through."

I assume she means SPM.

The impression that Day 1 gave me is someone who is playing carefully. Now, innocents play carefully too, even if I don't agree with that style. But wolves are more likely to do so.

Day 2

Post 1- reaction to mass reveals

She took the words right out of my mouth

Post 2- Tells Morsul that we just aren't going to listen to him, response to Crayon, doesn't think both priests are wolves, response to Nienna: tells her that Morsul definitely tried to reveal as gifted, asks her how there could be a scenario of two competing sets of gifteds with out there being a wolf in the mix.

Other than slightly misunderstanding Crayon's post, there's nothing. Except that this is where the suspicion of Nienna started.

Post 3- Response to Nienna: says Morsul only claimed it was a joke after Roa caught him slipping

Did Morsul ever claim it was a joke? I don't think so. Still, that's not so bad. She defends our seer. On the other hand, well, it was pretty obvious that Morsul was lying, so not defending Pitch would have been suspicious.

Post 4- Points Brinn towards suspecting Nienna

She seems pretty solid about this case against Nienna

Post 5- Explains to Morsul that he can't change sides.

Post 6- Says she won't vote our priests yet, Agrees with Inzil that Nog could definitely be a wolf, agrees with Crayon that Morsul could be a wolf pretending to be an agent, but that it isn't likely.

Post 7- Continues on the idea that Morsul must be the agent, continues to explain that she's suspicious of Nienna

Post 8- says that Morsul was probably trying to get Pitch lynched, doesn't think that we have more than one wolf in the mix, can't tell who

Post 9- Agrees with Legate that Inzil looks suspicious

Post 10- Response to Nienna: doesn't see why she should be open minded about Morsul, questions Nienna's vote for Nogrod

Post 11- Disagrees with Wilwa about the kill saying anything. Says the seer should dream of Wilwa or Hakon

I don't like the way she suggests the seer use his dream like that.

Post 12- Says the wolves won't try to continue the gamble, doesn't think that the wolves are new, wonders why the reveal

But Wilwa was right- we couldn't tell anything from the kill. Which I'm not sure makes Wilwa more suspicious or less.

Post 13- Is suspicious of Wilwa based on her reasoning behind not getting dreamed.

Post 14- Is now second guessing herself on Nienna

Now that Nienna is in danger of getting lynched, Nerwen does a 180 and is suddenly unsure of who to vote for, after being on Nienna for two Days, arguing against Brinn in favor of Nienna's guilt, but one post from Inzil, who voted for Nienna himself, changes her mind suddenly?

Post 15- suggests that we lynch Morsul

What? As the Agent, in case you've forgotten, he counts as an innocent in our numbers vs the wolves.

Post 16- Votes Morsul

So she decides she's going to go against what everyone else has said and votes Morsul. Contrary to Nogrod, I don't think that was seriously putting Morsul up as a candidate since it was clear by then that no one else would have voted for him. Not only that but she also said that both Nogrod and Inzil were suspicious. So why not vote for one of them? Why throw her vote away?

Post 17- Says that Nogrod accusing Roa of being a wolf makes him look evil.

Ironically, that's what convinced me of his innocence.

I really, really don't like the way she built up the suspicion of Nienna through out the Day, only to drop it at the last second and vote for someone who had NO chance of getting lynched. She also said that the points against Nogrod were good, but she also avoided voting for him. She continues with her carefulness.

Day 3

No show yet

Her sudden change of heart on Nienna is remarkably suspicious, especially after trying so hard to bring others onto the idea Nienna being a wolf, beginning with suspicion on Day 1. That's a long time to suspect someone only to suddenly change your mind just as they are about to be lynched.

edit: crossed with Inzil

Roa_Aoife · 10-17-2009, 09:21 PM

I am going to do an analysis of Brinn, and then I will probably go to bed. I will be on briefly a few hour before DL, and but I have church in the morning so I won't be on for long.

Of course I'll be thinking of the game all through the service.

Inziladun · 10-17-2009, 09:30 PM

Interesting analysis of Nerwen, Roa. I'd like to hear what she has to say.

That bit from Hakon earlier: I would say the slip(?) of saying opposite things in the same post makes him look highly suspicious, but his being a wolf almost seems too easy. I find the uncertainty swirling around our gifteds extremely frustrating, but if everyone else is of the mind to let the matter be for now, so be it.

Nerwen · 10-18-2009, 01:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Case 2: Wilwa is the Ranger, Hakon is a Wolf
Vice versa. Wilwa, the Ranger, said she cannot protect the Seer toNight. It would make sense for the WWs to attack the Seer, then, and get rid of him. It would mean, though, that Hakon will be exposed as a lying Ranger (though they could still try to outtalk it on the next Day, that he actually could not have protected the Seer, but he was bluffing to try to save him for one, resp. two more Nights). It is also distinctly possible that Wilwa the Ranger would be bluffing and actually protecting the Seer that Night, in that case, it would be a risk of losing the kill, and also helping Wilwa prove her innocence (as people would probably assume it was her who stopped the kill).

Neither we, nor the wolves, can know whether the Ranger is bluffing or not. Whichever way round it is, I'm surprised the wolves didn't try for the Seer, since their Ranger-candidate can always say either, "Hey, I was bluffing" or else, "I guess they thought I was bluffing," depending on circumstances.

Yes, that practically amounts to giving advice to the wolves... but then they should have thought of that themselves. I wonder what it means that they didn't take that option.

Now Roa has brought up some points against me, which I will answer.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Now that Nienna is in danger of getting lynched, Nerwen does a 180 and is suddenly unsure of who to vote for, after being on Nienna for two Days, arguing against Brinn in favor of Nienna's guilt, but one post from Inzil, who voted for Nienna himself, changes her mind suddenly?

I didn't "change my mind". I never said I was going to vote for Nienna, or even that I strongly suspected her. I brought up some things about her that I found suspicious, that's all.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

suggests that we lynch Morsul
What? As the Agent, in case you've forgotten, he counts as an innocent in our numbers vs the wolves.

I know. But lynching any baddie is better than lynching an innocent... and I didn't see enough reason to vote anyone else.

Plus, Brinn, Craydon and Nienna, at least, had expressed doubt as to whether he was really the Agent– and that doubt is something the wolves could use.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Her sudden change of heart on Nienna is remarkably suspicious, especially after trying so hard to bring others onto the idea Nienna being a wolf, beginning with suspicion on Day 1.

Again– you exaggerate, Roa. I did not "try so hard" to get convince people to think she was a wolf, and in fact I was taken aback when everyone started voting for her.

Look, give me some credit, will you? What good would it have done a wolf-me to make a throwaway vote then anyway? (Not that I intended it to be throwaway- there were still people left to vote then.)

I knew at the time my vote would bring me under scrutiny toDay– but I just didn't in conscience feel that I could vote for anyone else.

EDIT:fixed bolding; clarification.

10-17-2009, 09:11 PM	#1
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Nerwen Day 1 Post 1- Banter with Greenie, says the wolves will want to appear helpful with out giving themselves away Post 2- Points out that no one can really prove their alibis Post 3- Points out that Wilwa's post #21 is little more than telling people to post more, explains to Morsul that the narrations don't have any clues Post 4- Tells Morsul that the vote isn't meant to be random Post 5- Doesn't like Hakon's vote Post 6- response to Morsul: says she had no theories on wolves because it was too early to tell, doesn't think the wolves would have trouble with Crayon's question Post 7- Response to SPM: Loslote's only played one game, and why does he suspect her SPM did state that he suspected Nerwen, but he never gave a reason why. Was he tossing suspicion around, jumping onto Morsul's expressed suspicion, or distancing a fellow wolf? Post 8- doesn't find Nienna's reaction to Morsul's vote suspicious, says that Nienna's comment on Hakon was similar to something she did as a wolf in the last game Post 9- Votes SPM I would like to know who she was going to vote pre-reveal, but it looks like it would have been Nienna from the way her posts were going, as she's the only one Nerwen had expressed suspicion towards. Post 10- Response to Inzil: says it's unlikely that Pitch is the Agent Post 11- Accepts Pitch's reason for revealing so early. Suggests that the Changed and the dreamer might appreciate suggestions Post 12- "Well, it's not as though he left that many posts for them to go through." I assume she means SPM. The impression that Day 1 gave me is someone who is playing carefully. Now, innocents play carefully too, even if I don't agree with that style. But wolves are more likely to do so. Day 2 Post 1- reaction to mass reveals She took the words right out of my mouth Post 2- Tells Morsul that we just aren't going to listen to him, response to Crayon, doesn't think both priests are wolves, response to Nienna: tells her that Morsul definitely tried to reveal as gifted, asks her how there could be a scenario of two competing sets of gifteds with out there being a wolf in the mix. Other than slightly misunderstanding Crayon's* post, there's nothing. Except that this is where the suspicion of Nienna started.* Post 3- Response to Nienna: says Morsul only claimed it was a joke after Roa caught him slipping Did Morsul ever claim it was a joke? I don't think so. Still, that's not so bad. She defends our seer. On the other hand, well, it was pretty obvious that Morsul was lying, so not defending Pitch would have been suspicious. Post 4- Points Brinn towards suspecting Nienna She seems pretty solid about this case against Nienna Post 5- Explains to Morsul that he can't change sides. Post 6- Says she won't vote our priests yet, Agrees with Inzil that Nog could definitely be a wolf, agrees with Crayon that Morsul could be a wolf pretending to be an agent, but that it isn't likely. Post 7- Continues on the idea that Morsul must be the agent, continues to explain that she's suspicious of Nienna Post 8- says that Morsul was probably trying to get Pitch lynched, doesn't think that we have more than one wolf in the mix, can't tell who Post 9- Agrees with Legate that Inzil looks suspicious Post 10- Response to Nienna: doesn't see why she should be open minded about Morsul, questions Nienna's vote for Nogrod Post 11- Disagrees with Wilwa about the kill saying anything. Says the seer should dream of Wilwa or Hakon I don't like the way she suggests the seer use his dream like that. Post 12- Says the wolves won't try to continue the gamble, doesn't think that the wolves are new, wonders why the reveal But Wilwa* was right- we couldn't tell anything from the kill. Which I'm not sure makes Wilwa more suspicious or less.* Post 13- Is suspicious of Wilwa based on her reasoning behind not getting dreamed. Post 14- Is now second guessing herself on Nienna Now that Nienna is in danger of getting lynched, Nerwen does a 180 and is suddenly unsure of who to vote for, after being on Nienna for two Days, arguing against Brinn in favor of Nienna's guilt, but one post from Inzil, who voted for Nienna himself, changes her mind suddenly? Post 15- suggests that we lynch Morsul What? As the Agent, in case you've forgotten, he counts as an innocent in our numbers vs the wolves. Post 16- Votes Morsul So she decides she's going to go against what everyone else has said and votes Morsul. Contrary to Nogrod, I don't think that was seriously putting Morsul up as a candidate since it was clear by then that no one else would have voted for him. Not only that but she also said that both Nogrod and Inzil were suspicious. So why not vote for one of them? Why throw her vote away? Post 17- Says that Nogrod accusing Roa of being a wolf makes him look evil. Ironically, that's what convinced me of his innocence. I really, really don't like the way she built up the suspicion of Nienna through out the Day, only to drop it at the last second and vote for someone who had NO chance of getting lynched. She also said that the points against Nogrod were good, but she also avoided voting for him. She continues with her carefulness. Day 3 No show yet Her sudden change of heart on Nienna is remarkably suspicious, especially after trying so hard to bring others onto the idea Nienna being a wolf, beginning with suspicion on Day 1. That's a long time to suspect someone only to suddenly change your mind just as they are about to be lynched. edit: crossed with Inzil __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen Last edited by Roa_Aoife; 10-17-2009 at 09:13 PM. Reason: fixed formatting

10-17-2009, 09:30 PM	#3
Inziladun Gruesome Spectre Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Heaven's doorstep Posts: 8,039	Interesting analysis of Nerwen, Roa. I'd like to hear what she has to say. That bit from Hakon earlier: I would say the slip(?) of saying opposite things in the same post makes him look highly suspicious, but his being a wolf almost seems too easy. I find the uncertainty swirling around our gifteds extremely frustrating, but if everyone else is of the mind to let the matter be for now, so be it. __________________ Music alone proves the existence of God.

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10-17-2009, 09:21 PM	#2
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	I am going to do an analysis of Brinn, and then I will probably go to bed. I will be on briefly a few hour before DL, and but I have church in the morning so I won't be on for long. Of course I'll be thinking of the game all through the service. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen