TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Pitch

Indeed, I'm beginning to see the merit of the System of Doctor Nog and Professor Rod...

Excuse me, but who's Rod? *is confused*

Originally Posted by Nog

But what is this "concentrating on the Bear" -stuff anyway? How does one concentrate one's search for baddies to a Bear that has no mates and to whom every lynch but her/his own is just okay? The Bear's role is the most unfathomable there is: no loyalties, no cares, no bonds... So no possibility of catching the Bear by what s/he says in regards to other players, no voting "footprint", nothing. So how to concentrate on finding her/him?

Eurgh. Well. The reason I first brought up the Bear was to wonder if it's even possible to catch one. The second time I brought up the issue was (like I think I've already said) to point out that the Bear may, in the upcoming Days when we (hopefully) will have some wolvish connection trails to follow, be forgotten (at least by leaky-minded people like me) and that is not advisable. The third time I brought up the Bear was to explain the previous to Morsul. So, quite frankly, I don't get your "obsessed with the Bear" -stuff. Half my posting concerning the Bear is explaining an earlier mention of the Bear. Hardly qualifies as an obsession, in my book.

Oh, and I kind of hate myself for this, but I find Nog a bit unnerving at the moment. For one thing, he's grasping at straws, in the sense that he's making big things out of small things. (No news on Day 1, I suppose.) But I get rather more concerned when thinking of who he's suspicious of. Let's see... there's SPM, me, and Roa - all of whom have been voiced some uneasiness of earlier (ie. ideal Day 1 lynch candidates). I'm surprised Nerwen didn't make it to the list. It of course might be that SPM, Roa and myself have been behaving more suspiciously than others, but I can't shrug off the thought that Nog might be just advocating for an easy yet reasonable-looking lynch.

Originally Posted by Nogger

And let it be known I tend to be suspicious of Greenie everytime we play together... So a pinch of salt here.

Alas, so true. I wonder if I shouldn't take my own suspicions seriously because I always suspect you. A pinch of salt, indeed.

EDIT: x-ed with 2xNog and Pitchwife, corrected bolding
EDITEDIT: wrote the "EDIT" part in the wrong place. How embarrassing.

[A Little Green]

I want to go to sleep very soon so I'll vote in a little while... Eurgh I wouldn't want to fall into old habits and vote Nog but it's the best I have at the moment... Hopefully there's some tremendous new info by the time I get back (ie. in a very short while). Come on, now, some wolf confessions, please.

[Pitchwife]

Excuse me, but who's Rod? *is confused*

If you don't know, how am I supposed to? Maybe the side of him that doesn't want to lynch his daughter - sort of a Jekyll and Hyde affair? No, wait, that was Stevenson, not Poe...

Seriously, time to look at some of the others. Zil is being suspiciously unsuspicious this time, as far as I can tell - as in, posting sparingly, with occasional outbursts of making points (e.g. attacking the FWI, which speaks for him) - all in all looks like himself.
Morsul - was around for a while earlier in the Day, voiced some reserved suspicion of Nerwen, Greenie and sally because of early morning accusations and 'hiding in plain sight', committed Monte Carlo fallacy about SpM's chance of wolvishness. Sometimes hard to get what he's actually saying, but nothing that screams out to me yet.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Pitch

If you don't know, how am I supposed to?

*headdesk* I'm tired. Didn't get the joke.

I'm off to bed, a glorious two hours later than I meant to. So, here comes my vote:

++ Nog Rod

Good Night folks.

[Nogrod]

Okay... one dad dealt with... (no I actually like to talk with him but it tends to take a long time everytime...)

Originally Posted by A Little Green

For one thing, he's grasping at straws, in the sense that he's making big things out of small things. (No news on Day 1, I suppose.)

I'm making all I have time for. As I said you three were the ones that raised my eyebrows when I had a chance to read the thread 7 hours ago... I'm slow, I admit. I have no cababilities to make similar cases on everyone around in the time I have.

But I get rather more concerned when thinking of who he's suspicious of. Let's see... there's SPM, me, and Roa - all of whom have been voiced some uneasiness of earlier (ie. ideal Day 1 lynch candidates).

If you look at my first post you see that I regret the fact that the things that got me suspecting some people were the ones that were discussed just the hour before I posted... But as I said then and say now... I wonder if it is just pure coincidence... or whether something in the posting of those people is actually suspicious.

And aren't you exaggerating the suspicions on you Greenie? I mean Spm and Roa had been suspected - mainly by each other...

And like I said in my last post that got interrupted, I'm all for a submarine-lynch toDay. Unless one of you manages to make oneself looking more suspicious...


EDIT: X'd with Greenie... and looking at the last sentence of my original post...

[Pitchwife]

Looking at our more taciturn co-villagers:
Brinn - one post, with some content, which I've commented on above; nothing to add.
wilwa - same applies to her.
Fea - our resident poet; has surfaced and given us some wonderful verse, but a little less form and more substance would be nice, when she's done eating cookies. (Question to those who've played more games with her: Does she always make such a theatrical entrée or only when she's a wolf, like last time I saw her do it in Mnemo's game?)
McCaber - one very short post, agrees with Nog and Fea, excuses himself because toDay is terrible for him.
sally - some early morning banter, next to nothing to go on. Under surface.
Lari - one post, zero content. Classical submarine.
Boro - Ah, I see he's just showed up.
Nothing at all from: Hakon and Lottie.

[Pitchwife]

And Boro not only shows up, but also says something and sounds quite reasonable.
However:

Originally Posted by Boro

So, let's set them against eachother, or in the very least make them think we are setting them against eachother.

And how exactly would you suggest we do that? You just spent quite a number of words on explaining why they'd naturally have to kill one another anyway, so what consequences, if any, should this situation have for our strategy?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And how exactly would you suggest we do that? You just spent quite a number of words on explaining why they'd naturally have to kill one another anyway, so what consequences, if any, should this situation have for our strategy?

To get them against eachother (or in the very least make the wolves think the bear is after them or vice versa) would hopefully change what they want to do at night. We won't know what they are attempting until kills actually start happening, but if the bear decides to be a threat to the wolves at night than the wolves will have to consider trying to kill the bear. If the bear thinks the wolves will want to knock him off, than the bear has to think about killing wolves. What good does this do us? They try to kill eachother at night instead of working to kill innocents.

Hakon, just because SpM was a wolf doesn't mean McCaber still didn't randomize it. That just means SpM had his name randomly picked. Considering who Mira will pick for what role is plain out headachingly confusing. Not only is delving into the mind of the modgoddess could cause you to lose your sanity, but I think she has repeatedly stated all roles were pulled from a hat. I don't know what else there is to say about this.

Speaking of the modgoddess and deaths...last time I requested an honourable death and you delivered spectacularly. I trust (and expect) you will do the same for me again.

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, to start I see Nogrod has made quite an entrance. I really want to ignore him for at least toDay, so I don't fall into the old "Roa and Nog are trying to kill each other and they're both innocent" fiasco again. I'll start paying attention to him later.

Greenie has voted for Nogrod. From what I can tell it's because he suspected her, even though it's been stated that he always does. It seems off to me, somehow, but then as I said, I'm pointedly ignoring Nogrod so I don't do the same. So I'll leave this alone for now as well, because to reason it out, I'd have to look at him, and if I do that I'll want to argue with him, and then we'll end up trying to lynch each other regardless of our respective roles.

Boro, the person who said the bear might work with the wolves is me, and the reason I said it is because the village can't win until the bear and the wolves are dead. We have to lynch him or we lose. This would encourage the bear to not want to help us at all. Or least to let the wolves thin us out a bit before he starts trying to kill them.

I'm not angry with you Hakon. I'm very frustrated that you can't seem to understand this. You got lucky with SPM. One instance doesn't prove your theory, and if you persist on this line of reasoning then you are inherently unhelpful to the village.

BTW, by saying you don't believe the roles are picked randomly, even though Mira said they were, is to call Mira a liar, and that's just rude.

My suspicion against Nerwen is pretty weak right now. I need to read through and see if anything jumps back out at me. Though I wouldn't mind lynching Hakon if he keeps up the meta-gaming nonsense.

[Roa_Aoife]

Two things jump out at me on my read through. Firstly, SPM reacted to my pretty mild suspicion with a disproportionate amount of force, and then brought really circumstantial evidence (my misunderstanding being a "ruse") and a misrepresentation of the reason I suspected Nerwen against me. Maybe he just looking for someone to suspect, or maybe he's upset that I pointed out a possible ruse.

Secondly, the way Pitch goes along with "let's lynch the quiet ones" idea posed by Nogrod. Don't get me wrong- I agree with the idea. It just seems Pitch jumped on it somewhat enthusiastically, even making a list of the quietest villagers. This is pretty weak though, and everything else Pitch has said sounds like her reasonable self.

So there it is: i suspect Nerwen, SPM and Pitch most of all. My strongest case is SPM.

[Nogrod]

Back from the Mead Hall...

As stupid as it is to join a choir, I think I must. Please Hakon, reconsider your stance and start playing. That attitude does not help us at all. You were the hero of the last game but in this one we start from scratch. Don't either think what you thought the last game applies to this one - or that if you were right in the last one the same arguments will be good this time around.

It may be you were not only lucky last time, or then you were, no one can say, but you must also see that most WW-hosts actually randomise the roles for good (I've hosted / co-hosted, what four games I think, and all the roles have been random) and thus the speculations over those matters are kind of against the spirit of the game. We want to play, not to second guess the moods of the mod.

X'd with Roa...

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Roa

Though I wouldn't mind lynching Hakon if he keeps up the meta-gaming nonsense.

Same here. To be honest, an idiosyncratic playing style is a lousy reason to lynch somebody, as I've said time and again, but there's only so much of it I can stand, and one cobbler is quite enough to deal with.
Problem is, this would make a perfect bandwagon for the wolves to hide in. So rather not.

(x-ed with Roa. Fair enough, but my sex hasn't changed since last time. That damned nick...)

[Boromir88]

So I'm up to reading post #55 and am stopping for a break...

The first few posts were junk posts (mine included). Sally does bring up the theory that the first posters are typically wolves, SpM accuses (less "seriously" than the rest of his post) all the first posters, and Inzil wonders the statistics of the theory.

Interesting...I assign the start of the 1st-poster theory to Mith, because it was my first game and she first mentioned it. It could have been someone else before, but I just personally think of Mith. She was a wolf then, but she's also propsed the same as an innocent. It is reasonable to think the evil ones will be excited and anxious to get the game started, thus are the first to post, but the results are rather mixed. I mean someone could just want to be the first to post and get started regardless of role.

Sauce, jests with all of his top-suspects being the first posters, I don't see anything wrong with that. The only thing that gets me suspicious about Sauce is when he said he was going to "reserve judgement" about suspects for now. This strikes me as not a typical Sauce, who before has criticized me for saying I wanted to try a more "observation" role, instead of being my typical blabber-mouth.

Inzil asks about actual statistics and displays curiousity about, which gets me slightly suspicious, as it looks like he's trying to get people seriously suspecting the 1st posters. And only slightly suspicious because he could be honestly curious about the actual stats and then using that as his way to vote, which makes a more reasonable vote than casting a random one.

I'm most suspicious of sally though, who states she did not want to be the 1st-poster because she wanted to avoid the "crap," yet she still posts nothing else except a youtube link for the modgoddess. That gets me the most suspicious, she actually tried to avoid looking like the suspicious "1st-poster," but still makes a post that says nothing. Then her next post she just says she's leaving.

Now onto the 3 or 4 bad wolf, good wolf curfluffle. Sauce looks innocent, in the way that he tries to clear up the confusion over the number of wolves, and the good-wolf talk. There was obvious confusion caused by Mira's poor math skills in the one instant (no worries, once while trying to make a point during a lesson I wrote 8-5 was 4 ). Anyway the point is there was obviously confusion and with the way it was written, it looks like an honest misunderstanding not someone faking ignorance over rules.

Why suspect Roa for going after Sauce though? If someone says something that is wrong, whether it was an honest mistake or not, I would hope someone else jumps in and corrects it. Roa's questions were aimed to clear up confusion as well as what Sauce was thinking about his "good wolf" talk, someone want to explain what is suspicious there?

I am suspicious of Morsul's little question about it. If anything that is the one that looks like fake ignorance.

I agree the bear should be a top priority I mean we have to kill three(or is it four?)wolves to eliminate their nightly kill, but only one bear to get rid of his or her kill. Seventeen people... 5 wolf/bears... so 12 Innocents considering we lynch the wrong person. in theory 4 days is our time limit for the village...~post 17

First he says 3, but then asks if it's 4. Then in the bolded part it looks like he already knows the true answer "5 wolf/bears" there's only 1 bear, a slip that you knew already there were 4 wolves?

Then in #32 he does the math and points out:

3 Wolves Not Four!

Which Roa responds in #39 that Mira made a typo or her math is wrong. Mira clears up there are 4 wolves. So, I think out of that entire discussion Morsul looks the most suspcious.

Edit crossed with everything after Roa's #92, which reminds me I forgot to say something about that post. (see upcoming post)

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Boro, the person who said the bear might work with the wolves is me, and the reason I said it is because the village can't win until the bear and the wolves are dead. We have to lynch him or we lose. This would encourage the bear to not want to help us at all. Or least to let the wolves thin us out a bit before he starts trying to kill them.

Thanks for making it easy on me.

The other point is try as we might, we can't control what the wolves and bear will do and we won't be able to figure out what they are doing until they make their kills.

So at least early on you could be right that the bear will seek to work with the wolves and vice versa. Maybe they want the double kills? But just as much as they are our enemies, they are also enemies, and as Pitch says they are already naturally against eachother. Let's hope it's sooner rather than later, and actually with 4 wolves the bear should worry about killing the wolves sooner rather than later.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Boro, the person who said the bear might work with the wolves is me, and the reason I said it is because the village can't win until the bear and the wolves are dead. We have to lynch him or we lose. This would encourage the bear to not want to help us at all. Or least to let the wolves thin us out a bit before he starts trying to kill them.

Allow me, Roa, to set you right:
Couple of deaths per Night
Requires only one Wolf-man.
On that note, the Werangutan
Should fast attempt to kill the Loups
To thin the threat the xe dies too.
If each night the living wolves do kill,
Certainly, if the village doesn't kill the 'Tan, the other bad guys will.

---

Originally Posted by Morsul

1/16 last time 1/17 this time so therefore chance of wolf Both times becomes 1/272

WRONG.

Because there is not only one wolf per game, the odds are FOUR out of seventeen. While the odds of being a wolf both times are statistically lower than the odds of being a wolf once, that's because you're dealing with two instead of one. When you're talking singularly about the odds of Saucie being a wolf in THIS game, it is FOUR out of seventeen, the same as the odds for every single other player.

The odds of him being a Were-something are five in seventeen, and the odds of him having evil intentions in general (ie: including the cobbler in the 'bad' group) is six in seventeen. The odds of him (or any of us) being Murderer of the Rue Morgue are one in seventeen because there's only one Werangutan, and the odds of him being cobbler are one in seventeen because there's only one cobbler.

THE END.

[Hakon]

I have arrived at last. I am going to start off by saying DON'T PAY ATTENTION THE BEAR YET. I am going to use names from this previous disagreement that has been mentioned. I thought we could use the bear to our advantage and Rikae got mad at me and then there was a fight and the bear killed me. That bear was Mira. Seer whoever you think Mira would make a bear, dream of that person tonight.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Hakon

Seer whoever you think Mira would make a bear, dream of that person tonight.

Just to forestall any further meta-game reasoning, roles were assigned randomly (picked from a hat). Mira said so. And welcome among the happy few posting at the moment.

[Hakon]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Just to forestall any further meta-game reasoning, roles were assigned randomly (picked from a hat). Mira said so. And welcome among the happy few posting at the moment.

That is what McCaber said about his game and I still figured out that he had made SPM a wolf. I will do some thinking as to who the bear is and who the wolves are. I will post my suspicions and hope that the seer picks one of those names to dream of. I know the seer won't listen to me alone so I am hoping my suspicions are shared. Now looking at who Mira would pick to be the bear a few names come to mind. Fea, Boro, and Sally.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Hakon

That is what McCaber said about his game and I still figured out that he had made SPM a wolf. I will do some thinking as to who the bear is and who the wolves are. I will post my suspicions and hope that the seer picks one of those names to dream of. I know the seer won't listen to me alone so I am hoping my suspicions are shared. Now looking at who Mira would pick to be the bear a few names come to mind. Fea, Boro, and Sally.

Sorry, I just don't buy this meta-reasoning, especially when it was explicitly stated that the roles were given randomly, and how that was done. You may have guessed correctly using that method before, but it's a waste of time to count on it as a logical tool for ferreting out baddies, in my opinion.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Hakon

That is what McCaber said about his game and I still figured out that he had made SPM a wolf. I will do some thinking as to who the bear is and who the wolves are. I will post my suspicions and hope that the seer picks one of those names to dream of. I know the seer won't listen to me alone so I am hoping my suspicions are shared. Now looking at who Mira would pick to be the bear a few names come to mind. Fea, Boro, and Sally.

I know this is just your way of playing, but still...
Could we please hear some intra-game reasoning? As in, based on what people have said up to now, who has been suspected for what by whom, and so? I mean, just for a change?

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have arrived at last. I am going to start off by saying DON'T PAY ATTENTION THE BEAR YET. I am going to use names from this previous disagreement that has been mentioned. I thought we could use the bear to our advantage and Rikae got mad at me and then there was a fight and the bear killed me. That bear was Mira. Seer whoever you think Mira would make a bear, dream of that person tonight.

And once again, for the very last time:

THE ROLES ARE CHOSEN AT RANDOM. Period. The end. It's over.

Edit: crossed with Pitch

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Fea - our resident poet; has surfaced and given us some wonderful verse, but a little less form and more substance would be nice, when she's done eating cookies. (Question to those who've played more games with her: Does she always make such a theatrical entrée or only when she's a wolf, like last time I saw her do it in Mnemo's game?)

Everything Fea does is theatrical. Which is both entertaining for us and something for her to hide behind. It doesn't really speak either way towards her guilt or innocence.

Ok, sorry for the sudden popping out- I got an emergency "I can't get my kids from karate" call. I'm going to catch back up. I'll probably have to drift in and out tonight, and vote a couple hour before deadline.