TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And how exactly would you suggest we do that? You just spent quite a number of words on explaining why they'd naturally have to kill one another anyway, so what consequences, if any, should this situation have for our strategy?

To get them against eachother (or in the very least make the wolves think the bear is after them or vice versa) would hopefully change what they want to do at night. We won't know what they are attempting until kills actually start happening, but if the bear decides to be a threat to the wolves at night than the wolves will have to consider trying to kill the bear. If the bear thinks the wolves will want to knock him off, than the bear has to think about killing wolves. What good does this do us? They try to kill eachother at night instead of working to kill innocents.

Hakon, just because SpM was a wolf doesn't mean McCaber still didn't randomize it. That just means SpM had his name randomly picked. Considering who Mira will pick for what role is plain out headachingly confusing. Not only is delving into the mind of the modgoddess could cause you to lose your sanity, but I think she has repeatedly stated all roles were pulled from a hat. I don't know what else there is to say about this.

Speaking of the modgoddess and deaths...last time I requested an honourable death and you delivered spectacularly. I trust (and expect) you will do the same for me again.

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, to start I see Nogrod has made quite an entrance. I really want to ignore him for at least toDay, so I don't fall into the old "Roa and Nog are trying to kill each other and they're both innocent" fiasco again. I'll start paying attention to him later.

Greenie has voted for Nogrod. From what I can tell it's because he suspected her, even though it's been stated that he always does. It seems off to me, somehow, but then as I said, I'm pointedly ignoring Nogrod so I don't do the same. So I'll leave this alone for now as well, because to reason it out, I'd have to look at him, and if I do that I'll want to argue with him, and then we'll end up trying to lynch each other regardless of our respective roles.

Boro, the person who said the bear might work with the wolves is me, and the reason I said it is because the village can't win until the bear and the wolves are dead. We have to lynch him or we lose. This would encourage the bear to not want to help us at all. Or least to let the wolves thin us out a bit before he starts trying to kill them.

I'm not angry with you Hakon. I'm very frustrated that you can't seem to understand this. You got lucky with SPM. One instance doesn't prove your theory, and if you persist on this line of reasoning then you are inherently unhelpful to the village.

BTW, by saying you don't believe the roles are picked randomly, even though Mira said they were, is to call Mira a liar, and that's just rude.

My suspicion against Nerwen is pretty weak right now. I need to read through and see if anything jumps back out at me. Though I wouldn't mind lynching Hakon if he keeps up the meta-gaming nonsense.

[Roa_Aoife]

Two things jump out at me on my read through. Firstly, SPM reacted to my pretty mild suspicion with a disproportionate amount of force, and then brought really circumstantial evidence (my misunderstanding being a "ruse") and a misrepresentation of the reason I suspected Nerwen against me. Maybe he just looking for someone to suspect, or maybe he's upset that I pointed out a possible ruse.

Secondly, the way Pitch goes along with "let's lynch the quiet ones" idea posed by Nogrod. Don't get me wrong- I agree with the idea. It just seems Pitch jumped on it somewhat enthusiastically, even making a list of the quietest villagers. This is pretty weak though, and everything else Pitch has said sounds like her reasonable self.

So there it is: i suspect Nerwen, SPM and Pitch most of all. My strongest case is SPM.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

everything else Pitch has said sounds like her reasonable self.

I think I can rest assured you two are not mates in crime this time or then this is reaally deliberate... is this what, the third time... or the fourth?

[Roa_Aoife]

I'll get it right eventually, Pitch. Sorry.

[Pitchwife]

My fault, really. I should have pretended to be a girl from the start. Then in a couple of years I could have made a nice coming-out thread.

[Nogrod]

Back from the Mead Hall...

As stupid as it is to join a choir, I think I must. Please Hakon, reconsider your stance and start playing. That attitude does not help us at all. You were the hero of the last game but in this one we start from scratch. Don't either think what you thought the last game applies to this one - or that if you were right in the last one the same arguments will be good this time around.

It may be you were not only lucky last time, or then you were, no one can say, but you must also see that most WW-hosts actually randomise the roles for good (I've hosted / co-hosted, what four games I think, and all the roles have been random) and thus the speculations over those matters are kind of against the spirit of the game. We want to play, not to second guess the moods of the mod.

X'd with Roa...

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Roa

Though I wouldn't mind lynching Hakon if he keeps up the meta-gaming nonsense.

Same here. To be honest, an idiosyncratic playing style is a lousy reason to lynch somebody, as I've said time and again, but there's only so much of it I can stand, and one cobbler is quite enough to deal with.
Problem is, this would make a perfect bandwagon for the wolves to hide in. So rather not.

(x-ed with Roa. Fair enough, but my sex hasn't changed since last time. That damned nick...)

[The Saucepan Man]

Catching up ...

Originally Posted by MiraModdess

*is officially taking death requests*

Well, it's not Poe, but if I have to go, I would rather like to go like the Kenneth Williams character in Carry on Screaming. Frying Tonight!

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

What's going on between Roa and SpM at the moment looks like a classical suspicion match between two active innocents to me. Nice TV for the wolves.

Quite possibly. My reasons for suspecting Roa basically revolve around her aggressive approach, particularly her early accusations of Nerwen and me based on what I regard as rather flimsy evidence. It might be said that a Wolf would not risk drawing attention to herself by acting so aggressively, especially on Day 1. Problem is that Roa always acts that way, whether Wolf or Innocent. As I said, I'm reserving judgment for now.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

All this creating of confusion, all that could be seen as "contact-making" (more of that with Greenie), all the suspicion thrown around like at random (well that could be argued for as a tactics of an innocent as well) and to top it; his defence of himself of saying it would be bad for a wolf to do what he did... heh, so not a wolf, but... a cobbler?

Pur-lease. As both Roa and Pitch have pointed out, if it was a ruse, it was a bad one. Credit me with a bit more nouse, please.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now if I would have to make a quess now on who's the Bear, I would say Greenie is. The way she talks about the Bear all the time ("no Bear would talk of her own role that much") would be just fine for a Bear.

I don't get this at all. Everyone has been talking about the Bear to some degree or other. Which is hardly surprising, given that the Bear is a relatively rare feature of WW games. And, given that Greenie was simply saying that we should not concentrate on the Bear but not forget him either, you seem rather to be over-emphasising the import of her words in this regard. I see nothing especially 'Bearish' in what Greenie has said, as distinct from anyone else who has discussed the subject.

Is it me, or is Noggie acting uncharacteristically aggressively? Perhaps he has changed his style since days of yore, but I always thought that he was more measured, at the outset at least. The again, the same point applies as I made above. Would a Wolf act so 'in your face' right from the outset on Day 1?

I'm glad to see that Boro, at least, caught my drift concerning the dynamics between the Bear and the Wolves. I pretty much agree with all that he says. It's not a case of trying to get one or t'other of them on our side or relying on them to side with us, but rather pointing out, so that they are clear, what it is their best interests to do.

[Morsul the Dark]

Only popping in for a moment before I go to do my show... might have to vote now Even though I have nearly zero suspicions after reading everything.

Ok For people who think the fact that saucey was a wolf last time has nothing to do with this time because both were random picks... While technically true there is the statistics...

1/16 last time 1/17 this time so therefore chance of wolf Both times becomes 1/272

Obviously Just because of that math we shouldn't leave him alone.... Green seems absorbed by the bear but still not really enough for me to vote...

Ok so the only one who really has a strong case would be SPM... the friendly wolf thing... but we were all confused.... but by the math not the wording...

SPM- you said we should always lyncha known cobbler rather than an unknown so Whether you're a cobbler or Wolf ....

SPM++

[Morsul the Dark]

Actually I thought there was a "Good wolf" until doing the math (the reason for 3/4? was would the "good" wolf be considered in the wolves count... but after I did the math(which we now know was flawed) I now know the answer...

[The Saucepan Man]

Actually I thought there was a "Good wolf" until doing the math (the reason for 3/4? was would the "good" wolf be considered in the wolves count... but after I did the math(which we now know was flawed) I now know the answer...

And yet you vote for me for thinking the same.

Congratulations. You have just appeared between my crosshairs.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Actually I thought there was a "Good wolf" until doing the math (the reason for 3/4? was would the "good" wolf be considered in the wolves count... but after I did the math(which we now know was flawed) I now know the answer...

Fair enough, I was also going to say, about you this is my first game with you...and I believe your second? I didn't read the last game, so I have no idea about your style, but wanted to get a response from you first before sharing that.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Only popping in for a moment before I go to do my show... might have to vote now Even though I have nearly zero suspicions after reading everything.

Ok so the only one who really has a strong case would be SPM... the friendly wolf thing... but we were all confused.... but by the math not the wording...

SPM- you said we should always lyncha known cobbler rather than an unknown so Whether you're a cobbler or Wolf ....t]

Meaning I felt e was trying to confuse us... Note te first sentence I had nearly zero suspicion meaning I voted for SPM based on the fact he was the most suspicious of not suspicious people if I didn't have to vote I would've abstained because no one(At the point of that post) jumped out at me.

Does tat clear up my reasoning for anyone?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Roa

Firstly, SPM reacted to my pretty mild suspicion with a disproportionate amount of force, and then brought really circumstantial evidence (my misunderstanding being a "ruse") and a misrepresentation of the reason I suspected Nerwen against me. Maybe he just looking for someone to suspect, or maybe he's upset that I pointed out a possible ruse.

Oh for goodness sake, I am not having this. I think that it was perfectly reasonale to point out that your jumping on my misunderstanding looked suspicious, as it did to me. And the fact that you subsequently retracted made no difference. The mischief was in sowing the seed of doubt, as evidenced by the fact that Brinniel and others picked up on it, and the fact that we are still discussing the issue now.

I reall am rather miffed at being suspected on the basis of something that would have involved an improbable amount of foresight (to spot the opportunity) combined with an equal measure of stupidity (for thinking that it might work).

And you call my case against you circumstantial, Roa? That's quite something, given the flimsiness of your case against Nerwen, and now me. I think that it is you who is looking for someone to suspect.

But, as you have said, it is Day 1 and we are all looking for someone to suspect based on what we have, such as it is.

[Roa_Aoife]

Morsul's vote looks like it came out of left field.


SPM, flimsy is saying that I made up being confused about the number of wolves. That is completely circumstantial. You used that to feed into the idea that my case against Nerwen is weak, which I clearly admitted it was. I have one point, it's that she jumped onto something you said to Inzil, which could also be construed as you sowing a seed of doubt against him, which clearly worked because Nerwen went with it.

You see the flaw in your reasoning? Just because someone else jumps onto what I'm saying doesn't mean that was my intention. The people jumping on are more suspicious, because it's easier for a wolf to nudge on an already present suspicion than to start one of their own. I found Nerwen more suspicious than you until you become over-defensive about the whole thing.

edit: crossed with Morsul down, and I have to go to dinner, but I'll be back.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

The mischief was in sowing the seed of doubt, as evidenced by the fact that Brinniel and others picked up on it, and the fact that we are still discussing the issue now.

Well, given that my misunderstanding about the 'friendly Wolf' appears to have given rise to no small amount of suspicion and now one vote, I hardly think that I am being overly-defensive. I am merely trying to point out the ludicrous nature of the basis for such suspicion. Still, if you were trying to sow the seeds of doubt against me back there, it seems to have paid off.

You are using the fact that other people suspect you as evidence for me intentionally sowing seeds of doubt. Morsul's vote has nothing to do with me- you're just blaming me for it. You're basically saying that the only reason people suspect you is because of me, and not because you actually did anything suspicious.

And there is nothing reasonable about declaring that I was trying to fool everyone by my confusion when you insist that you could not possibly have been doing just that. The first time I stated it was to clarify the numbers which were in debate at the moment, and the second time was to state why your confusion wasn't terribly suspicious because I was confused as well. You jumped on it and ran with it, well before anyone else had mentioned it, so while your over defensiveness may be justified now, it certainly wasn't then.

[Nogrod]

Okay.

I don't like some buddying-ups around here and I find some rows somewhat fabricated.

Both these classes include Spm...

Also I think he is not reading people on even terms which always raises an eyebrow... and all that praise over someone saying that the wolves and the Bear are enemies who need to get rid of one another... is that news Saucie? Why praise Boro so many times for stating the obvious while others have been busy trying to get bad individuals caught?

But I will not vote for him as that is not enough to serve as a basis for a vote on Day1. But not knowing the future one needs to lay open his two cents.


That leaves me torn between two options.

Trying the odds with a submarine (which I would then call you others to vote as well) as the chances are best they ever can be in this game looking at the unhappy ratio we have.

Going against my conscience & will and voting for Greenie who I suspected and who retaliated like she just tried to get out of that with the "retaliatory move".

A short thought and then vote.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Why praise Boro so many times for stating the obvious while others have been busy trying to get bad individuals caught ...

Have you been neglecting to take your exaggeration medication again, Noggie? First Greenie and now me. Since when does a passing mention in a single post constitute praising someone "so many times"?

I need to vote and I am probably going to vote for Morsul for picking up on others' specious reasoning and using it to justify his vote. But first I need to go and work out how to do this highlighting of votes ...

[Roa_Aoife]

I may be off and on for the rest of the Day, but I can't guarantee it, so I'm going to vote now.

++SPM

For being overly defensive, claiming that he wasn't suspecting me for other people's action but continuously bringing up the idea that I was sowing seeds of doubt, and now this whole "but we're probably two innocents duking it out" looks like he's trying to backpedal after Pitch pointed out the possibility.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also I think he is not reading people on even terms which always raises an eyebrow... and all that praise over someone saying that the wolves and the Bear are enemies who need to get rid of one another... is that news Saucie? Why praise Boro so many times for stating the obvious while others have been busy trying to get bad individuals caught?

Sometimes it's necessary to state the obvious.

Also when you get multiple people all discussing one topic that means statistically there's probably some villainy involved, which then gives us info to read through. I'm not saying we continue to rehash this same argument the next day and the next, but it's a good question to consider on Day 1, and seeing as many responded to it there's lots to look at.

The same goes for whether early posters are anxious wolves, or the entire confusion over the # of wolves and the good wolf...multiple people commented, now use it to try and find the most suspicious.

Edit: crossed with Sauce and Fea...ooh I better check to see if that DVRed or my roommate will kill me.

[The Saucepan Man]

++Morsul the Dark

... for reasons previously stated.

Adios amigos.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Spm

Have you been neglecting to take your exaggeration medication again, Noggie?

Oops... sorry guys...

Have you seen me not exaggerating things in ww - or elsewhere?

But to be honest you seem to be underplaying the thing saying it was a "passing mention"... how nicely phrased.


But with no good-enough candidate on Day1...

I have an impression of these people because of what they have posted / that they have posted substantially enough to give hints about what they think - or wish us to think.

Boro
Fea
Greenie
Hakon
Morsul
Nerwen
Pitchwife
Roa
Saucepan Man

So I can foresee I - or anyone else - is able to read them as the Days go by. And the more Days pass the easier it becomes (which is not to say it will become easy).

These people I have no idea about... (number of their posts after their names)

Brinn -1 (no idea but reasonable - points on Roa and Spm)
Inzil - 6 (what a failing on my side; this many posts and no idea)
Lari - 1 (no idea indeed)
Loslote 0 (where is she?)
McCaber -1 (was too keen to be nice to me, suspicious)
sally - 2 (I didn't like her two posts: showing a knowledgeable face but no input ehatsoever, trying to look nice, suspicious)
wilwa - 3 (no idea, but tend to think her readable later on)

Some may start posting in a Day or two - or even toDay. A tough call.

(I see what you people say about Morsul and even if I kind of agree with you I can see lynching him as an "easy way" as well)

But still looking at the numbers there should be at least two baddies in the latter department.

[Nogrod]

Which one is the worst?

Self-consciously joking - with only two posts but overdoing it trying to look light = Sally

Buddying up - even with time constraints only saying two people are good (me and Fea) = McCaber

Ignoring the game but posting - posting once saying "I'm here" and "pineapple". = Lari

Not showing at all - an innocent and not interested or shying away big time? = Lottie


I'll go with

++ McCaber

He looks the worst to me.


EDIT: X'd with Roa & Lottie

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife about Hakon

To be honest, an idiosyncratic playing style is a lousy reason to lynch somebody, as I've said time and again, but there's only so much of it I can stand, and one cobbler is quite enough to deal with. Problem is, this would make a perfect bandwagon for the wolves to hide in. So rather not.

And this is the general dilemma of WW...

On the surface I do wholly agree with you two with the fact that the way Hakon plays looks like worthy of a lynch-vote.

On a second thought it looks like Pitchie is right: Going after Hakon for that reason would be just the way the wolves would like to do: easy and non-controversial...

But with a third glance on it, what Pitch says would be just what an intelligent wolf would say to make those suspecting his possible mate to look suspicious... Especially if Hakon's mates had been advicing him to go on with that same style...

EDIT: X'd with the latest few...

[Boromir88]

So I'm up to reading post #55 and am stopping for a break...

The first few posts were junk posts (mine included). Sally does bring up the theory that the first posters are typically wolves, SpM accuses (less "seriously" than the rest of his post) all the first posters, and Inzil wonders the statistics of the theory.

Interesting...I assign the start of the 1st-poster theory to Mith, because it was my first game and she first mentioned it. It could have been someone else before, but I just personally think of Mith. She was a wolf then, but she's also propsed the same as an innocent. It is reasonable to think the evil ones will be excited and anxious to get the game started, thus are the first to post, but the results are rather mixed. I mean someone could just want to be the first to post and get started regardless of role.

Sauce, jests with all of his top-suspects being the first posters, I don't see anything wrong with that. The only thing that gets me suspicious about Sauce is when he said he was going to "reserve judgement" about suspects for now. This strikes me as not a typical Sauce, who before has criticized me for saying I wanted to try a more "observation" role, instead of being my typical blabber-mouth.

Inzil asks about actual statistics and displays curiousity about, which gets me slightly suspicious, as it looks like he's trying to get people seriously suspecting the 1st posters. And only slightly suspicious because he could be honestly curious about the actual stats and then using that as his way to vote, which makes a more reasonable vote than casting a random one.

I'm most suspicious of sally though, who states she did not want to be the 1st-poster because she wanted to avoid the "crap," yet she still posts nothing else except a youtube link for the modgoddess. That gets me the most suspicious, she actually tried to avoid looking like the suspicious "1st-poster," but still makes a post that says nothing. Then her next post she just says she's leaving.

Now onto the 3 or 4 bad wolf, good wolf curfluffle. Sauce looks innocent, in the way that he tries to clear up the confusion over the number of wolves, and the good-wolf talk. There was obvious confusion caused by Mira's poor math skills in the one instant (no worries, once while trying to make a point during a lesson I wrote 8-5 was 4 ). Anyway the point is there was obviously confusion and with the way it was written, it looks like an honest misunderstanding not someone faking ignorance over rules.

Why suspect Roa for going after Sauce though? If someone says something that is wrong, whether it was an honest mistake or not, I would hope someone else jumps in and corrects it. Roa's questions were aimed to clear up confusion as well as what Sauce was thinking about his "good wolf" talk, someone want to explain what is suspicious there?

I am suspicious of Morsul's little question about it. If anything that is the one that looks like fake ignorance.

I agree the bear should be a top priority I mean we have to kill three(or is it four?)wolves to eliminate their nightly kill, but only one bear to get rid of his or her kill. Seventeen people... 5 wolf/bears... so 12 Innocents considering we lynch the wrong person. in theory 4 days is our time limit for the village...~post 17

First he says 3, but then asks if it's 4. Then in the bolded part it looks like he already knows the true answer "5 wolf/bears" there's only 1 bear, a slip that you knew already there were 4 wolves?

Then in #32 he does the math and points out:

3 Wolves Not Four!

Which Roa responds in #39 that Mira made a typo or her math is wrong. Mira clears up there are 4 wolves. So, I think out of that entire discussion Morsul looks the most suspcious.

Edit crossed with everything after Roa's #92, which reminds me I forgot to say something about that post. (see upcoming post)

[Pitchwife]

It's bedtime for me, and I won't be back for DL, so it's voting time, too. I'd rather vote somebody I suspect for a reason rather than Hakon, or one of the subs I'm allegedly so enthusiastic about lynching. SpM might be a candidate, but I sort of like the defense he's just made and would like to give him some more playing time.
What I don't like is how Boro has just blown up sally's early morning jokes into a bubble of suspicion. That's not much to go on, but nobody has really looked at him yet.
++Boro
Good Night.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Boro, the person who said the bear might work with the wolves is me, and the reason I said it is because the village can't win until the bear and the wolves are dead. We have to lynch him or we lose. This would encourage the bear to not want to help us at all. Or least to let the wolves thin us out a bit before he starts trying to kill them.

Thanks for making it easy on me.

The other point is try as we might, we can't control what the wolves and bear will do and we won't be able to figure out what they are doing until they make their kills.

So at least early on you could be right that the bear will seek to work with the wolves and vice versa. Maybe they want the double kills? But just as much as they are our enemies, they are also enemies, and as Pitch says they are already naturally against eachother. Let's hope it's sooner rather than later, and actually with 4 wolves the bear should worry about killing the wolves sooner rather than later.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Boro, the person who said the bear might work with the wolves is me, and the reason I said it is because the village can't win until the bear and the wolves are dead. We have to lynch him or we lose. This would encourage the bear to not want to help us at all. Or least to let the wolves thin us out a bit before he starts trying to kill them.

Allow me, Roa, to set you right:
Couple of deaths per Night
Requires only one Wolf-man.
On that note, the Werangutan
Should fast attempt to kill the Loups
To thin the threat the xe dies too.
If each night the living wolves do kill,
Certainly, if the village doesn't kill the 'Tan, the other bad guys will.

---

Originally Posted by Morsul

1/16 last time 1/17 this time so therefore chance of wolf Both times becomes 1/272

WRONG.

Because there is not only one wolf per game, the odds are FOUR out of seventeen. While the odds of being a wolf both times are statistically lower than the odds of being a wolf once, that's because you're dealing with two instead of one. When you're talking singularly about the odds of Saucie being a wolf in THIS game, it is FOUR out of seventeen, the same as the odds for every single other player.

The odds of him being a Were-something are five in seventeen, and the odds of him having evil intentions in general (ie: including the cobbler in the 'bad' group) is six in seventeen. The odds of him (or any of us) being Murderer of the Rue Morgue are one in seventeen because there's only one Werangutan, and the odds of him being cobbler are one in seventeen because there's only one cobbler.

THE END.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Allow me, Roa, to set you right:
Couple of deaths per Night
Requires only one Wolf-man.
On that note, the Werangutan
Should fast attempt to kill the Loups
To thin the threat the xe dies too.
If each night the living wolves do kill,
Certainly, if the village doesn't kill the 'Tan, the other bad guys will.

The only thing I'm pointing out is that the fewer wolves there are, the greater a chance they'll be wiped out early by us, which leaves us looking for the were-bear to kill. And the wolves don't have to kill the were-bear to win.

The reason I'm pointing this out is because I think it's dangerous to count on something we can't possibly know about. It really all boils down to the Bear's personality. Granted, I've never actually played in a game with a bear, but it seems like everyone just assuming the bear will help us kill wolves instead of helping the wolves kill us seems like a dangerous mentality to get into.

Edit: crossed with SPM down