TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Boro, the person who said the bear might work with the wolves is me, and the reason I said it is because the village can't win until the bear and the wolves are dead. We have to lynch him or we lose. This would encourage the bear to not want to help us at all. Or least to let the wolves thin us out a bit before he starts trying to kill them.

Allow me, Roa, to set you right:
Couple of deaths per Night
Requires only one Wolf-man.
On that note, the Werangutan
Should fast attempt to kill the Loups
To thin the threat the xe dies too.
If each night the living wolves do kill,
Certainly, if the village doesn't kill the 'Tan, the other bad guys will.

---

Originally Posted by Morsul

1/16 last time 1/17 this time so therefore chance of wolf Both times becomes 1/272

WRONG.

Because there is not only one wolf per game, the odds are FOUR out of seventeen. While the odds of being a wolf both times are statistically lower than the odds of being a wolf once, that's because you're dealing with two instead of one. When you're talking singularly about the odds of Saucie being a wolf in THIS game, it is FOUR out of seventeen, the same as the odds for every single other player.

The odds of him being a Were-something are five in seventeen, and the odds of him having evil intentions in general (ie: including the cobbler in the 'bad' group) is six in seventeen. The odds of him (or any of us) being Murderer of the Rue Morgue are one in seventeen because there's only one Werangutan, and the odds of him being cobbler are one in seventeen because there's only one cobbler.

THE END.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Allow me, Roa, to set you right:
Couple of deaths per Night
Requires only one Wolf-man.
On that note, the Werangutan
Should fast attempt to kill the Loups
To thin the threat the xe dies too.
If each night the living wolves do kill,
Certainly, if the village doesn't kill the 'Tan, the other bad guys will.

The only thing I'm pointing out is that the fewer wolves there are, the greater a chance they'll be wiped out early by us, which leaves us looking for the were-bear to kill. And the wolves don't have to kill the were-bear to win.

The reason I'm pointing this out is because I think it's dangerous to count on something we can't possibly know about. It really all boils down to the Bear's personality. Granted, I've never actually played in a game with a bear, but it seems like everyone just assuming the bear will help us kill wolves instead of helping the wolves kill us seems like a dangerous mentality to get into.

Edit: crossed with SPM down