TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[The Saucepan Man]

I have had a look through Boro’s posts – there were more than I thought!

As has been noted, he talked a lot about Bear tactics and Bear v Wolf dynamics. Probably more so than anyone else, so perhaps he was attacked because the Wolves had spotted him. If so, he only has himself to blame, as that was his advice to them. However, we cannot be sure that they did, so it is worth looking to see whether they might have had some other reason for attacking him.

At various points, he expressed suspicion to varying degrees about a fair few people. This figures, I suppose, as he would want to keep his options open. Other than Morsul, however, his main suspect appears to have been sally (#101 and #131), although he wavered to and fro on Nogrod and Greenie a bit (#131, #135 and #164) and noted right at the end that he was tempted to vote for Lari but would check her out the next Day (#166). I think that, if the Wolves did target Boro because of something that he said about one of them, then this would point towards sally, and perhaps Lari, more than anyone else. Which is interesting, given that they are the two Hakon voters, and I think one of them is quite likely a Wolf. But it’s a fairly tenuous lead, and I didn’t see much else in what he said that might have provoked the Wolves to attack him.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Roa

You aren't off my radar- I'm just broadening my range of attention so I don't miss anyone else.

Charmed, I am sure. The feelings’ mutual.

Originally Posted by Roa

SPM: Isn't not reading the rules properly what caused all the confusion on Day 1?

Hehe. I know, I know. Hence my self-admonishment.

Originally Posted by Roa

I don't agree with your assessment of Loslote's vote, however. Loslote's vote, to me, looked the same as yours, and after voting, she continued to argue against Morsul.

I’ll have to look back at it again, but I recall thinking it rather opportunistic at the time. With the benefit of hindsight, I think that Morsul would have looked incredibly lynchable to a Wolf at that point and, if I were a Wolf, I would always prefer to find a nice comfy seat at the front of a bandwaggon, rather than an uncomfortably bumpy one right at the back. That’s the reason that I think Loslote looks the more Wolfish than Fea out of the two, but I take your point about not putting anything past Fea. As I mentioned previously, however, it is always possible that, precisely because Morsul looked lynchable, the Wolves avoided that bandwaggon altogether.

Originally Posted by Roa

Also, I have always held to the belief that you should vote whoever you feel is that most suspicious, rather than limiting yourself to those who have a possibility of getting lynched. So I don't agree with you in that anyone who voted for someone you didn't have a high chance of getting lynched is suspicious necessarily. At least it would take more than that to convince me.

I agree that this, in itself, is not enough to establish Wolfishness. But it is one of the patterns that I look for in the votes. Wolves like to hunker down in nice, warm, 'safe' votes if they can, particularly when a lynchable innocent looks to be in the firing line. I am also always wary of anything that looks that it might be a safe Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by SpM

Eh? It wasn’t me who said that …

Oh no! Sorry! It must have been Boro, then, I noticed when I was reading that I kept mixing the two of you up...

Originally Posted by SpM

Greenie for Nogrod – Given his accusation of her, based on what I thought to be rather weak evidence, I can see why she might vote for him. That said, she does not appear to have looked very closely at many others and she may have used this thing about her frequently voting for him as cover to place an ‘easy’ vote.

More than not looking closely at others, I think it was not seeing much eyebrow-raising stuff in others.

Now a quick list before I'm off to write a French essay on preserving water. Eurgh.

Brinn - seems innocentish
Fea - Roa has a good point about her vote, I have little on her apart from that. The poems were cool, though.
Greenie - that's me.
Inzil - no read, dunno why since he's been posting quite actively. Might take a look at him toMorrow if we both are alive (I won't have the time toDay).
Lari - too little to go on
Loslote - can't say, really - I can see how her vote could appear very opportunistic, but I don't have enough data from her to say this or that.
McCaber - too little to go on
Nerwen - leaning innocent
Nog - is still the only one I have actual arguments against. I believe I have talked enough about him already, I'd love it if he appeared before I vote because I had some questions for him. I will not judge this or that before I've had those questions answered.
Pitchwife - seems innocent
Roa - seems so sensible it frightens me, if you know what I mean. She makes soooo much sense that I'm lulled into thinking "she makes sense, she can't be a wolf", when I know that making or not making sense doesn't necessarily have anything to do with being or not being a wolf. Actually, more than once, while reading, I caught myself thinking "What if Roa is a wolf?"
sally - too little to go on
Saucepan Man - leaning innocent
wilwa - too little to go on

Four of the above people are wolves. Nog? Roa? Fea? Sally, McCab, Loslote, Wilwa, Lari? Brinn (knowing my skill in reading her)? Dunno.

Heeeeeeeeeeey actually I got an idea. Nog and Roa together? I'm not sure if I remember this right but wasn't Roa suspecting Nog early on Day 1, but dropped the suspicion after a while? Convenient wolf-on-wolf? I'd love to investigate but now I have to write the stupid essay. Back when I'm finished!

[Nogrod]

I think this will be the Nth time I say this, but let me try and formulate it this way (if it would finally hammer in to some thick skulls around... ).

Nogrod's werewolf-rule for Day1

On Day1 never vote a player who actually "invests in the game", takes time and effort to actually produce ideas, reads and comments on others, builds or tries to build cases... throwing her/his neck forwards in general.

Elucidation of the rule

Those people can be read on later Days much better than those who act like submarines - and it is fair to let those people play who actually play and sink the submarines.

First amendment to the NwwrD1

If one of the people referred to in the NwwwD1 as "those who invest into the game" turns out so suspicious that there is a clear and open argument beyond any reasonable doubt that the person is a baddie, then neglect NwwrD1 and vote for the person.

Second amendment to the NwwrD1

If there is no overwhelming argument on anyone fitting the description of "those who invest into the game", then try to affect the lynching as to save those you think fit the description or who feel the most innocent.

Third amendment to the NwwrD1

If there is no overwhelming argument on anyone fitting the description of "those who invest into the game" and there is no chance to stay around at the deadline and affect the voting, then pick the most suspicious person from the low-posters / non-involveds and hope for the best.


My late dinner is ready and cooling... More thoughts soonish.

[Pitchwife]

Back and just finished reading. One little comment:

Originally Posted by SpM #186

Perhaps a PitchWolf had spotted the Bear and was signalling to his packmates.

Nice thought, but obviously Pitchwolf would have had ample time to do so at Night, so why in the open Daylight? As I said above, my vote was more of a shot in the dark that luckily hit home. I had no idea Boro was the Bear, of all furry things, though in retrospect clues weren't altogether lacking.

[Roa_Aoife]

Okay, I just woke up from my nap and now I'm catching up.

[Roa_Aoife]

#194- Greenie: Not again! Eventually, people must realize that this argument ends up getting me lynched innocent more often than it catches me as a wolf. Which would imply it never catches me as a wolf- it would be similar to Hakon's metagaming. Sure he got lucky, but that doesn't mean his reasoning was sound. (Sorry, but one can only be lynched for making sense so many times before it gets irritating.) Also, I never suspected Nog. I made a point of ignoring him, so I wouldn't end up focusing on him instead of looking for wolves. (Which is what I ended up doing with SPM, so perhaps I ought to add him to my "ignore on Day 1" book, as well.)

#195- Nogrod: Yes, we know your rules. However, can you explain why you found McCaber more suspicious than the other low posters?

Well that didn't take too long. Where is everybody?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nice thought, but obviously Pitchwolf would have had ample time to do so at Night, so why in the open Daylight?

Maybe he wanted to get Borobear lynched instead of wasting a Night-kill on him? Still, it's a flawed theory - why lynch the Bear if you have an alternative of killing him at Night so that he can kill once too? Ok, there's a chance he might target a wolf, but the chance isn't that big.

I'd love to check what's between Roa and Nog, but now I'm ravenous and will get something to eat first. And also, I'll vote in an hour, or I hope to, since I need to go to bed (my alarm clock will ring in something like nine hours from now). Back in a minute! Be productive while I'm away so I'll have some lovely new last-minute ideas. Please?

EDIT: x-ed with Roa

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Roa

#194- Greenie: Not again! Eventually, people must realize that this argument ends up getting me lynched innocent more often than it catches me as a wolf. Which would imply it never catches me as a wolf- it would be similar to Hakon's metagaming. Sure he got lucky, but that doesn't mean his reasoning was sound. (Sorry, but one can only be lynched for making sense so many times before it gets irritating.)

Just to be clear - I wasn't suspecting you because you are making sense - I just find it creepy when I realise I'm discarding the possibility of someone being a baddie because s/he is making so much sense. So when I became too conscious that I was doing exactly this with you, I sort of got an opposite reaction (ie. continuously thinking "Roa could be a wolf"). And then I got this funny idea of you and Nog being fellows, which would, if it was correct, make you a wolf. (Captain Obvious strikes again!)

Originally Posted by Roa

Also, I never suspected Nog. I made a point of ignoring him, so I wouldn't end up focusing on him instead of looking for wolves. (Which is what I ended up doing with SPM, so perhaps I ought to add him to my "ignore on Day 1" book, as well.)

Right. That's theory ruined. Though actually, making a point of ignoring someone in order not to end up focusing only on that said person would be a very neat way of avoiding saying anything specific about your fellow... Gah, I'll look into that once I have time. Now I'm really starving so I'm off to eat.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'd love to check what's between Roa and Nog,

Now I'm really curious, what exactly are you talking about?

Edit: crossed with Greenie

[Nogrod]

Belly full then...

To quickly answer the other questions before delving into some actual work with this.


Why nor vote for Greenie as NwwrD1 doesn't clearly discard of her (like it does with Spm and Roa - making up the three I suspected yesterDay)?

Combine the facts that:
a) I tend to suspect her basically everytime and it made me waver if my suspicion (and the things I looked as suspicious with her posts & things with Spm) was merely feeling-based and not reasonable enough.
b) Her "retaliatory-vote" (vote someone who suspects you) felt so bad that it could have been just a "feel-bad" -factor of being voted for in that way.

Then you have my nausea in asking myself do I really vote right if I vote her - or do I do any good if I press for lynching her?

Spm, if you think I'm a wolf and base your view into my voting "the safe way", wouldn't I have been a lot safer voting for Greenie in the end? That would have been streamlined and argued for, and would have passed your scrutiny (looking at how you analyse the votes for being "good" or "bad"). And I think that with Greenie it would have been clear she would not have been lynched as I seemed to be basically the only one actually suspecting her, so safe indeed.


So applying the NwwrD1 and it's amendments (+case Greenie) I turned into the "quiet department".


Why of the rest McCaber then?

My posts in the end of Day1 (#124 & #127) should answer that question but let's make it in shorthand here as well...

With those who do not post anything "substantial" (however one defines it) one is forced to move with feelings and hunches as one can't make arguments from nothing.

Of those not bringing themselves forwards Lari and Lottie felt to me at the time like either non-interested ordos or people with RL hindrances.

Sally looked weird and suspiciously self-conscious - but also like Sally does usually. So a fifty-fifty feeling there.

McCaber was the one who looked calculated. He posted once and what he said was that he thought myself and Fea made sense / a good job. The wolves do not wish to have enemies, they wish to rub people the right way to make those others feel comfy (and I've been rubbed the right way a bit too many times by wolves to become suspicious of it everytime I see it). So both laying low and only letting out positive things... The result: no one thinks he should be lynched. Which was indeed the case - and seems to be at present as well. Ditto.


I hope that is enough. I'd rather do something else the rest of the time I have here toDay...

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Heeeeeeeeeeey actually I got an idea. Nog and Roa together?

The stuff of nightmares!

More seriously: SpM has a point about the wolves spreading their votes, which would speak against sally and Lari both being wolves, and the same (with reduced improbability, as there were more votes for Morsul to hide in) for Lottie and Fea.
As for Lottie, I've misjudged her before because she sometimes presents her points a little sketchily and wouldn't like to make that mistake again - she may have had better reasons for her vote than she committed to the keyboard, or maybe not. But I think both sally and Lari could do with some pressure toDay, and it would also be nice to hear some reasoned prose from Fea.
On the other hand there's still a possibility that SpM may be the cobbler trying to deflect suspicion from the bandwagoners.

More after supper.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

it would also be nice to hear some reasoned prose from Fea.

While I'd love to post with reason
Having facts writ' down in prose
You must know it would be treason
If at the mods I thumbed my nose.
'Tis a Poe game and he rhymes,
Meaning proper imitation
Needs abundance of fell crimes
Or a rhythmic repitition.
That is not to say I'm evil
And am hiding in my verses.
Who would think me as the devil,
One who kills, and rends, and curses?
Lo! It's not that I don't want to give my thoughts away.
Frankly, I'm constrained by form for what I can say.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Roa

Would it make you feel better if Nogrod and I had a big back and forth like the one SPM got into yesterDay? How exactly would it help the village? And can I at least wait until he's finished his dinner?

It wouldn't make me feel better nor help the village. That I got this idea that the two of you might be wolves together has nothing to do with wanting you to be wolves together. I'd be an idiot to want that (unless I was your fellow, of course)!

Originally Posted by Noggerz

Her "retaliatory-vote" (vote someone who suspects you) felt so bad that it could have been just a "feel-bad" -factor of being voted for in that way.

So the retaliatory move you talked about earlier meant a retaliatory vote? Ah. It's true that in practise my vote was a retaliatory vote. In theory it wasn't, though, since I didn't vote for you because you suspected me, but for other reasons. Those reasons I think I have stated quite a many times.

Fact is, I want to go to sleep but I need to vote first. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh.


EDIT: x-ed with Fea

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nogrod's werewolf-rule for Day1

etc



Yes, Noggie, I fully understand and all that. But it does give you a good excuse to place a reasonably safe Day 1 vote. At the very least, you are somewhat absolving yourself of responsibility for the Day 1 lynch as it is generally pretty unlikely that your pick will end up being lynched. And I am still not sure that your reasons for picking McCaber stand up to full scrutiny.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nice thought, but obviously Pitchwolf would have had ample time to do so at Night, so why in the open Daylight?

Well, this Pitchwolf feller might have wanted to get the Bear lynched in order to avoid the risk of him targetting a Wolf at Night. But I agree that it is not the strongest of points.

Originally Posted by Roa

Would it make you feel better if Nogrod and I had a big back and forth like the one SPM got into yesterDay?

Ooh, yes please. But can you wait while I get a big tub of popcorn ...

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But I think both sally and Lari could do with some pressure toDay, and it would also be nice to hear some reasoned prose from Fea.

I agree, and I would particularly like to hear more from Lari and sally toDay, as I am currently leaning towards voting for one of them.

[Roa_Aoife]

Post 1- Nonsense post, presumably to tell us he wouldn't be around


Post 2- Will be around, but probably won't make it till dead-line. Says the were-bears best strategy is to kill off the wolves, says it serves the bear no benefit to work with the wolves, suggests that we set the wolves and the bear against each other.


Post 3- response to Pitch, explains again how the bear and the wolves will want to knock each other off, joins the chorus in admonishing Hakon.

(Overall, this may have been an attempt to later convince the village to let him live.)


Post 4- General analysis and response to first 55 posts:
First few posts are Junk, believes Mith started the first poster theory, finds Sauce's reserve "a-typical."

(SPM seems to have conveniently missed that when he reviewed Boromir's posts. But that's very slight.)

Slight suspicion of Inzil due to questioning about first poster theory, but it's very slight.

(Slight enough, I think, that it probably doesn't point to Inzil.)

Is most suspicious of Sally

(I think that this actually would point away from Sally, as it would be really obvious.)

Overall, thinks Sauce is innocent in the whole FW confusion

(While it's possible that a wolf SPM may have targeted Boro to point away from himself, I find this unlikely, as it seems you'd want to keep people who think you're innocent around.)

Doesn't understand the suspicion against Roa

(Thankyou. But seriously, if I draw a conclusion from this it would be silly.)

Finds Morsul the most suspicious in the FW discussion.

(Well we know how that turned out)



Post 5- response to Roa, insists the bear and the wolves are enemies


Post 6- response to Morsul: "Fair enough"


Post 7- response to Nogrod: says it's good to state the obvious


Post 8- clarification about Sally suspicion, not bothered by Pitch's vote, finds Morsul the most suspicious, bad feeling about Nogrod

(This seems to point to Nogrod, and away from Greenie. But with Greenie's insistence on lynch Nogrod, I have to wonder if it was planned that way.)

Post 9- read and comment:

Wilwa is ok.

(Pretty neutral in how this regards wilwa.)

Disagrees with Nog about Sauce being the Cobbler

(This doesn't say anything about Nog, really, though it points away from SPM. And again, that may have been the idea, but I find it unlikely.)

McCaber greyed out part of his post

(This niether points to or away from McCaber)

Changes his mind on Nog's suspicion of Greenie, now finds Greenie suspicious.

(So scratch what I said earlier. Now I wonder if Greenie and Nogrod are wolves together planning on using their usual tit-for-tat as a cover, and if one of them gets lynched, it makes the other look better.)


Post 10- Decides not to comment on Hakon since it's been commented on to death. Addresses SPM vs Roa:

Thinks SPM may be over-reacting when he accuses Roa and Nog of being agressive, Thinks SPM may not have been over-reacting to the rest- points out that it's Roa's style to push people hard

(Again, I really can't draw conclusions that anyone else would find credible here.)

Response to Nog- Doesn't think SPM was trying to buddy up to him

(Aside from disagreeing, this is a fairly neutral statement, so it doesn't point one way or the other.)


Post 11- points out Morsul's insistence on the statistical odds of SPM being a wolf.


Post 12- Explains Nogrod's vote for McCaber, but doesn't understand why he didn't vote for Greenie

(Again, this could point to either Nogrod or Greenie, and possibly both, in my opinion.)


Post 13- Considers voting Lari, but votes Morsul instead.

(This is really the only thing that points to Lari, and I'm not sure it's enough. Of the two Hakon voters, Sally seems to obvious, but that could be the idea. )

In general, I find Nogrod and Greenie the most suspicious based solely on this.


Edit: Crossed with a host

[Roa_Aoife]

It's not cute anymore, Fea. Nor is it helpful.

Fea is probably either the cobbler, or a wolf pretending to be the cobbler.

edit: crossed with pitch and Fea. Good, hopefully we'll get some sense out of you now.

[Roa_Aoife]

Oh, and that was an analysis of Bearomir's posts. Sorry.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It's not cute anymore, Fea. Nor is it helpful.

Of course it's cute!

[Nogrod]

Roa: Sorry, I just don't get your analysis on Boro...

Where are the deductions there from?

How are you making those points from Boro's posting? What kind of "theory of motivation" do you use there?

Boro is most suspicious of someone = points away from that person as one who'd kill him during the Night?
Boro suspected someone = that person would have killed him?
Boro "slightly" suspected someone = that person probably didn't go to kill him?
Boro considers voting for someone = maybe not enough to kill him?

Not only do I find this "analysis" odd but also a bit too purpose-oriented...

And how do you find me and Greenie being in cahoots, on the basis of what Boro said? How would his words be any authority on that, how would have his words related to anything asa he was a bear and knew nothing? Still you say your deductions are based "solely on this" ( = your analysis on what Boro said).

Are your werewolf -schemes getting better of your good sense and you were creating there a wannabe conspiracy-theory of three wolves and forgot that Boro was a Bear?

Or did I miss something?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I don't know if I like Greenie's vote for Sally. She's been on Nogrod for a while, but then votes Sally as an "evil-looking submarine" without explaining why she thinks Sally looks evil. Sally's also a very easy vote, because a lot of people are suggesting she's a wolf because of her vote for Hakon.

It does look opportunistic, but the same could be said for many of yesterDay's votes. Confusing, to say the least.
Fea, Lari, and Loslote have been mostly in my thoughts toDay.
The reasons are obvious: the Hakon and Morsul voters still look to be the best bet for wolf-spotting.
Question is, who comes off looking the worst?
Fea tacked on the final nail for Morsul, and seemed a bit proud of it.
Lari brought the second vote for Hakon not long after Sally voted him. An ill innocent not having the time or inclination to look over things thoroughly, or an ill wolf jumping onto what looked to be a safe target?
Loslote looked very bad to me when she made the vote for Morsul. Her back-and-forth with him afterwards made her seem a little more innocent, though. I intend to look more closely at things later.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

RoaNot only do I find this "analysis" odd but also a bit too purpose-oriented...

Do you have a theory on what that purpose might be?

x/d with Pitch, and Roa

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Roa: Sorry, I just don't get your analysis on Boro...

Where are the deductions there from?

How are you making those points from Boro's posting? What kind of "theory of motivation" do you use there?

Boro is most suspicious of someone = points away from that person as one who'd kill him during the Night?
Boro suspected someone = that person would have killed him?
Boro "slightly" suspected someone = that person probably didn't go to kill him?
Boro considers voting for someone = maybe not enough to kill him?

Not only do I find this "analysis" odd but also a bit too purpose-oriented...

And how do you find me and Greenie being in cahoots, on the basis of what Boro said? How would his words be any authority on that, how would have his words related to anything asa he was a bear and knew nothing? Still you say your deductions are based "solely on this" ( = your analysis on what Boro said).

Are your werewolf -schemes getting better of your good sense and you were creating there a wannabe conspiracy-theory of three wolves and forgot that Boro was a Bear?

Or did I miss something?

Allow me to explain: I'm looking at it from the perspective of the wolves not knowing that Boro was the bear. If they did figure it out, then discussing his death is rather pointless, but we have know way of knowing if they did.

I don't think a wolf would kill someone who blatantly found them to be the most suspicious, as it would quite obviously point to them. I do think that a wolf might kill someone with the goal of making someone else look bad. That's why I initially thought Greenie-wolf may have killed Boromir to make you look bad. But then Boromir did a 180 on the whole thing, suspecting Greenie and not you.

And then I remembered what Greenie said, about a connection between you and me, and I thought about why she would say that when I just ignored you. And then it occurred to me that she may be trying to cover up her own tracks in doing just that. It really would be a perfect cover- one of you always suspects the other, anyways, so no one would find that out of the ordinary. And if one of you got lynched, the other would automatically look good. She fell into the easy vote of voting for you, and you built a suspicion of her and then backed down. It seems rather perfect wolf-on-wolf to me.

As for the rest, I tried to put myself in the position of the wolves, thinking on each person in perspective: a slight suspicion may not be worth killing over. A suspicion that wasn't exactly slight, but wasn't the strongest? Well, that has the potential to be dangerous and grown into the strongest suspicion.

I may be over-thinking it. Boro wasn't shy about discussing the bear, so it's possible the wolves picked him out. Or maybe the wolves just wanted to get rid of a strong player that could be a threat to them later. The point is that we don't know, so we have to continue to look at all the possibilities. This alone wouldn't be enough to lynch anyone, which is why I emphasized the "based solely on this" part.

Edit: Crossed with Pitch and Inzil.